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THE FAILURE TO SEE THAT THE SHAH MIGHT FALL: The Jervis Post-Mortem for the CIA in Retrospect

by Robert Jervis. Reading for week of October 24, 2006.

Note from author, Robert Jervis:  This is the introductory chapter to a book of essays of mine on intelligence.  The main one, discussed at length here, is a declassified (but unfortunately redacted) version of the post-mortem I wrote for CIA in 1978-79 on why it was slow to see that the Shah of Iran might fall.  The volume will also include my "Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures:  The Case of Iraq," Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 29, Feb. 2006, pp.3-52, and "The Politics and Psychology of Intelligence and Intelligence Reform,"  The Forum, vol. 4, Issue 1, 2006 (available only electronically from The Berkeley Electronic Press).


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