How Has the Russia-Ukraine War Affected the Middle East?

We will examine the experience and impact of the Russia-Ukraine war for the people of the Middle East, the impact on regional conditions, the role played by regional actors in the war, and the influence of both Russia and Ukraine on various countries in the region.

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How Has the Russia-Ukraine War Affected the Middle East?

Thursday, October 19, 2023
10:00 AM (Pacific Time)

Zoom Webinar

The Middle East has been deeply affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. The situation is extremely complex, including access to food, regional actors’ engagement with the two sides, and concerns about the consequences of potential outcomes of the war for regional and international dynamics. We will examine the experience and impact of the war for the people of the Middle East, the impact on regional conditions, the role played by regional actors in the war, and the influence of both Russia and Ukraine on various countries in the region. Join us for a discussion with expert analysts, followed by an audience Q&A moderated by Dr. Elizabeth Matthews, long-time co-editor of the UCLA CMED Routledge book series.

MEET THE PANELISTS

Ms. Yousra Fazili is a Senior Advisor to the Deputy Secretary of Defense and the Chief of Staff to the Under-Secretary of Defense (Comptroller/CFO). Previously, she was the Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs, where she directly managed US strategic alliances on arms control. Ms. Fazili assisted in establishing the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, strengthening domestic and international supply chains for the US and our allies, and working closely with industries to plan for a more green and carbon neutral manufacturing future. A seasoned national security policy advisor, she has experience providing public sector strategic planning, legal advice, and program management to maximize social impact to both the public and private sectors. In 2022, Ms. Fazili was honored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies as one of the top 50 leaders in national security and foreign policy.

Dr. Yevgeniya Gaber is a Ukrainian foreign policy expert and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Center in Modern Turkish Studies at Carleton University, Canada. Previously, she worked as a foreign policy advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, deputy director of the Diplomatic Academy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and political officer at the Embassy of Ukraine in Ankara. Her research interests cover European and black sea regional security with a particular focus on Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey. Dr. Gaber has published numerous articles and delivered lectures in diplomatic and defense academies across Europe.

Dr. H.A. Hellyer specializes in geopolitics, security studies, and political economy, holding more than 20 years of experience in governmental, corporate, and academic environments in Europe, USA, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Currently, he is a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, serving as senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security and as a Cambridge University fellow. Previously, he was appointed deputy convener of the UK Government’s task force on radicalization. He was also a fellow at the Foreign and Commonwealth office of the Economic and Social Research Council, and a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. A British citizen of mixed English and Arab heritage, Dr. Hellyer has spent his life between the Arab world and the West.

MEET THE MODERATOR

Dr. Elizabeth Matthews is Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at California State University San Marcos. From 2019-2022 she served at the Interim Dean for the College of Humanities, Arts, Behavioral and Social Sciences. She is currently the Faculty Fellow for Civic Engagement. She is the co-series editor of the UCLA Center for Middle East Development (CMED) and Routledge book series. Her most recent publication is International Relations Theory: A Primer, 2nd Edition, with Rhonda Callaway (Oxford University Press, 2020).

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Duration: 01:27:59

Transcript:

everybody uh it's exciting to have our

first webinar of uh the Academic Year

here at

UCLA uh and I'd like to take a moment to

to thank our co-sponsors for uh joining

us today and that's um uh UCLA political

science UCLA Center for European and

Russian studies and narian Center for

Israel studies and lkan Department of

political policy thank you all and now

let us begin and it's very exciting to

introduce our moderator Dr Elizabeth

Matthews a professor of political

science and Global Studies at California

State University San Marcos from 2019 to

2022 she served as the interim Dean for

the College of humanities Arts behavior

and social sciences she's currently The

Faculty fellow for civic engagement

she's the co- uh chair uh uh uh co- uh

series editor of the UCLA Center for

Middle East development CED us and rud

uh uh book series her most recent

publication is international relations

Theory a primary second edition with

Ronda Callaway Oxford University press

2020 it's a great pleasure to introd

ladies and gentlemen Elizabeth

Matthews thank you so much Steve and

hello everyone um good morning good

afternoon or good evening depending on

uh where you happen to be uh in the

world right now we very much appreciate

you joining us um for this uh webinar um

I want to thank Steve Spiegel for this

um I want to thank the amazing CED team

um without them this would not be uh

happening they do uh so much uh amazing

work and I appreciate them very much um

I want to thank our panelists who we

will hear from in a little bit and I

want to thank all of you uh for

attending um just one little

announcement so um I am in California um

and at

10:19 there is something that will

happen here called The Great California

ShakeOut and it's possible there could

be some disruption on the computer um

hopefully I will be muted but if I am

not um you may actually hear an

announcement about the it's an

Earthquake warning um so I just don't

want anyone to be uh uh triggered by it

or upset by it if you hear it it is only

a test um and if something does go wrong

with my technology I will pop on as

quickly um as I can um afterwards but

having said that um I just want to

acknowledge before we start that um we

know that there are many conflicts

happening around the world and there are

people suffering all over the globe and

we are going to talk about a conflict

today the uh Russia Ukraine war um in

which there have been people suffering

for a very long time and in fact I know

some of you who are on this call some of

you who are watching on YouTube right

that you are impacted by this and and

and probably suffering some um some

trauma and so all all I can do at this

moment is is wish you peace and then uh

proceed with us having a um discussion

about how the Ukraine Russia war is

impacting the Middle East um so that is

indeed our topic for uh today um we were

are going to talk about how this

conflict is uh impacting the people of

the Middle East we will talk about how

it is um impacting the governments in

the Middle East how it is impacting

Regional Dynamics all right so we have

an amazing esteemed panel here um to

help us do this and um as Dr Spiegel

said um while they are talking if you do

come up with questions please do put

them in in the uh Q&A box because uh we

do want to be able to address the things

that are on your mind and the questions

that you have for our panelists so we

will uh begin so we are going to begin

with Miss yra fili um she is the senior

advisor to the deputy secretary of

defense and the chief of staff to the

under Secretary of Defense previously

she was the Special Assistant to the

assistant secretary of defense for

nuclear chemical and biological defense

programs where she directly managed us

strategic alliances on arms control she

has assisted in establishing the

assistant secretary of defense for

industrial based policy strengthening

domestic and international Supply chains

for the us and our allies and working

closely with indust Industries to plan

for a more green and carbon neutral

manufacturing future she is a seasoned

national security policy adviser she has

experience providing public sector

strategic planning legal advice and

program management to maximize social

impact to both the public and private

sectors in 2002 she was honored by the

center for strategic and International

Studies as one as the as one of the top

50 leaders in National Security and

foreign policy so miss Vil please come

on um hi thanks so much for having me

Elizabeth and Seed also it was 2022 not

2002 I was a little bit younger then no

worries um anyways thank you guys so

much for having me on this panel I

really look forward to what my

colleagues have to say um I also just

wanted to begin I don't know if Shira

joined us yet but I just wanted to say

to thank her personally for being here

while her country is going through a

really volatile and scary time and I

wanted to thank Dr gabber for being here

I feel like the uh the fortitude of the

Ukrainian people has been a real

inspiration to the world and I look

forward to her insights on how this

conflict impacts the Middle East um as

you mentioned I have two roles at the

Pentagon and because of that I have my

own little disclaimer so because of

these roles all my comments are off the

Record and they don't speak for the

government for the Department of Defense

and I feel a little bit like somebody

like a disclaimer at the end of a

pharmaceutical commercial but I have to

do it to make the lawyers happy so bear

with me and now that I said that I'm

just continuing as myself but as myself

with maybe a wider apure than most

people and how the Department of Defense

and the US government generally sees our

commitment to Ukraine and how the

geopolitical map is Shifting nowhere is

this more evident than in the Middle

East earlier this year my esteemed

co-panelist hasham helier wrote that the

Ukraine war is very much an ideological

one for Russia which sees this as a

chance for it to be a great power again

but it's not an ideological one for the

United States and as usual this was a

very astute and accurate observation on

hashem's part in fact defending a

nation's internationally recognized

borders is perhaps the most

straightforward conflict America has

been in in quite some time how do you

win a war against the concept of Terror

how do you win a war against drugs but

here in Ukraine there's something we can

Define as a win in a way we have not

been able to for a really long time so

when I look out at this landscape three

things become apparent One alliances

across the region are shifting in a very

interesting way two Syria is kind of

this un spoken or maybe tacitly

acknowledged lynchpin in Russia's

invasion of Ukraine first Syria was

where Russia first tried a lot of its

horrible military tactics that it then

that it then used in the Ukraine and

also because of Russia's dominance in

Syria a lot of Middle Eastern countries

have been reticent to either Supply

lethal arms to Ukraine or to speak out

really wherly for them um and last but

not least there's been a real paradigm

shift in the United States approach to

the Middle East and I think this this is

like something very important to

highlight it's a shift that deemphasizes

the unrealistic aims of transformation

and regime change remember when that was

kind of all the rage and unfortunately

it was done with very like unilateral

military action so we've moved away from

this thank goodness and instead we

focused ourselves on Partnerships on

leveraging interoperability and on

pursuing allyship with defined

achievable aims so what am I talking

about here I'm talking about advancing

bilateral relationships in a

multilateral way when it comes to

Ukraine we see that multilateralism has

a really profound impact so I personally

wanted to just kind of examine some

relationships in the gulf and where we

see some real

dynamism um some of it as a result of

the Russian Ukraine war and some of it

as a turn to a more pragmatic foreign

policy in

general this definitely this conflict

has definitely brought Iran and Russia

closer together Iran supplies Russia

with drones IT Supplies Russia with with

tanks and artillery to use in the

Ukraine and in return Russia gives IR on

billions of equipment including fighter

jets Radars radar systems and

helicopters but let's be frank the

Iranian regime doesn't want to get too

into this Ukraine conflict they don't

want to be seen you know this way and

after March when Saudi and Iran resumed

diplomatic relationships Iran's trying

very hard to focus economic support

closer to home closer to the gulf closer

to Saudi especially after domestic

protests and years of crippling economic

sanctions so this leads me to Saudi

Arabia which is kind of only country in

the world named after a royal family

which I always find kind of interesting

um I have to say it's been saudi's time

to shine this past February Saudi

officials met zalinsky in the first

formal Min ministerial visit of an Arab

country to the

Ukraine uh since the War Began and they

gave 400 million in generators and

energy support to the Ukraine which was

extremely important for them to get

through a very cold winter this aligns

nicely with a lot of saudi's larger

larger PR winds recently in the last few

years in the in terms of like soft

diplomacy so they've let more visitors

into the country they've let women Drive

they're bringing Sports in and it's no

secret that Saudi really wants to be

seen as a player when it comes to hard

more impactful

diplomacy so surprisingly in May

zalinsky spoke at the Arab League in

jeda and his speech directly referenced

Russian persecution of Crimean tatars

who Muslim just last month Ukraine Got a

new Minister of Defense who is drumroll

a Crimean Tatar Muslim R amov and it's

been interesting to see how the strategy

for Ukraine's Alliance building may be

impacted by having a Muslim minister of

defense and I think that has yet to be

seen but maybe something's happening I

personally find omo super interesting

he's kind of a success story for the US

state department because he was part of

the Future Leaders program he speaks

five languages including Turkish he's

famous for being an anti-corruption

lawmaker he was part of zelinsky's made

delegation to JEA and he was part of um

first lady olena's visit to the the the

UAE so he has like his finger on the

pulse a little bit of the region at the

end of zelinsky's May speech to the Arab

League which included a little bit of

chiding for some countries not being all

in and up on the Ukraine front he

concluded by saying listen to the

Muslims of Ukraine listen to the creman

tatars and I encourage you all to

actually listen to his speech because it

was quite interesting and even though it

was likely set in an effort to build a

rapport with Arab leaders based on

shared religious values and now feels

like it was a little bit of

foreshadowing

so personally here's the thing how neat

would it be if the minister if a Muslim

Minister of Defense of a European

country in a leading Muslim Nation like

Saudi Arabia was able to come together

with Russia to hammer out a real peace

agreement I personally think saudi's in

a great position to have become a really

powerful negotiator globally and by that

I mean outside of the Middle East and

they would make very credible peace talk

mediators because everybody needs them a

a little bit so no one wants to alienate

them uh I know we only have a couple

minutes to make like five minutes to

make opening statements so obviously

there's a lot more this isn't a

comprehensive overview uh I want to end

on a very personal note to me personally

one of the most poyant lessons of the

Ukraine conflict was best Illustrated

last October when Russia cut water food

and electricity from

civilians and launched targeted attacks

on the

infrastructure the world was able to

condemn those acts as not just human

rights violations but as violations on

the law of War a Human Rights Watch

report uh said that with these actions

Russia appears to be seeking unlawfully

civilians uh and make life unsustainable

for them last August the Department of

Defense launched a civilian harm

medication reduction action plan focused

on protecting civilian life as an

important policy goal we as an

International Community have moved away

from a war posturing that once callously

called civilian debts collateral damage

and the world's response to Ukraine

shows that we as an International

Community have the capacity to respect

civilian life and I think that's a

really important message for the world

right now thank you so much um thank you

for those comments I appreciate it very

much um all right so we will now turn to

um Dr yvenia gabber Who I would also

like to give my personal thanks to um as

uh herself and her country finds themsel

in a just a

Unthinkable and unbearable situation um

but she is a Ukrainian foreign policy

expert and non-resident senior fellow at

the Atlantic Council and Center in

modern turkey studies at Carlton

University in Canada previously she

worked as a foreign policy adviser to

the prime minister of Ukraine deputy

director of The Diplomatic Academy at

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of

Ukraine and political officer at the

embassy of ukra Ukraine in anchora her

research interests cover European and

Black Sea Regional security with a

particular focus on Ukraine Russia and

Turkey she has published numerous

articles and delivered lectures in

diplomatic and defense acmis across

Europe Dr

gabber um hi everyone and uh thank you

Elizabeth for this kind introduction

thank you for having me today I would

probably want to start with the words of

uh condolence for everyone who has lost

their uh relatives their family members

and friends in the violence which is

going on in different parts of the world

now

unfortunately on U actually on all sides

of the um conflicts and wars that we're

going to talk about uh but the life goes

on so I'll probably in my short remarks

try to make sense of how actually

Russia's war in Ukraine correlate with

what is going on now in the Middle East

and I'll make three short points and

then we can discuss it in the Q&A

discussion part so first I think that um

the uh Russia's war in Ukraine which did

not start on the 24th of February but

actually started in 2014 with the

illegal occupation and annexation of

Crimea and now we have a new stage of

this war which started in February last

year this is a system transforming war

or rules setting war in a way because

when we are talking and from the side of

Ukrainian experts and diplomats I think

this point has been made many times that

this is not only about Ukraine the main

uh driver behind Russia's aggression

first in Georgia and then in Ukraine and

then in many different parts of the

world is to undermine the rules based

world order so it's not even about

democracies versus autocracies which is

also the case but this is a much broader

a much WI

thing this is about whether we have any

rules of peace and War time or not so in

way what Russia has done in Ukraine was

kind of normalization and legitimization

of violence including of violence

against civilians so now when we see

different Terror groups or for example

when we see Hamas attacking uh civilians

in Israel and attacking infrastructure

this triggers a lot the same reactions

when we see Russian missiles and Russian

um artillery shelling or Iranian drones

heating kindergartens and schools in

Ukraine or uh energy infrastructure or

agricultural infrastructure food

facilities um weed storages energy

infrastructure in Ukraine this is why it

is really important

to uh give response to Russia not in a

way of tradeoffs and appeasement and

discussion about where we can compromise

on so that Russia would be happy but

actually to create a precedent where

Justice means more than uh deals where

rules mean more than uh desire to get

back to business as usual and where we

not only speak about ceasefire but about

sustainable and just peace and this is I

think what many countries in the Middle

East lack as well now so the second uh

point I want to make is of course about

Russia's um information Warfare and

battle of narratives because this is not

only a kinetic War but also a war or a

fight for the hearts and Minds uh across

the world but specifically in the Middle

East uh the point that usra has made

before also referring to a that this is

ideological war for Russia which is of

of course uh true this is about this

desire to be back to big game with big

Powers great power competition not only

in Ukraine but in different parts of the

world which we can see now for example

from how Russia has um you know uh being

more active in uh sending Vagner or

other mercenaries to Africa to Mali uh

and then destabilizing different parts

of the world from uh I mean across the

world but Al in the Middle East uh

meaning that Russia may not be a direct

part of this conflict but Russia

definitely is one of the biggest

beneficiaries of major crisis conflicts

and multiple um conflict zones which

emerge at the same time because then you

can see narrative then you can say that

the world is reacting to the war in

Ukraine in a different way than the war

has reacted to a war in Syria or to a

war in uh uh you know uh between

Palestine and Israel this is also a war

for attention but also what Russia has

tried to um to do is to present this war

as a quest for a multi-polar world order

this has been one of the most popular I

think narratives in the Middle East as

well uh with anti-nato sentiments

anti-americanism talking about post-

West World Order talking about M

multipolarity and how Russia is trying

to uh approach uh this from its own

perspective which is definitely not the

truth because if we have terror

organizations and as new polls of this

multipolarity or if you have one of the

polls like Russia for example or North

Korea or Iran who are not abiding by the

rules it's not about unipolar or

multi-polar world order this is about

World Disorder and this is also

important to understand Russia has

nothing to do with the New multipolar

World Order Russia is trying to create

chaos from the Middle East to Africa to

the Balkans to Ukraine and last Point

very briefly is of course that if there

is any opportunity in the crisis which

is going on uh and in the war of

aggression which is now happening in

Ukraine is how Ukraine has reinvented

the Middle East and how the Middle East

has probably started to reinvent and

reopen Ukraine for themselves uh again

usra mentioned already peace Summit in

jeda and also um active participation of

different countries from Turkey in the

grain deal and then Saudi Arabia in

peace talk in peace talks in prisoners

swaps in these very specific issues of

negotiating or trying to negotiate with

the Russian side and president zin's

10-point piece formula has been

specifically designed in a way that this

would not be Western plan or Ukrainian

plan for ending this war but it would

engage with the countries in the Middle

East it would actually bringing board

countries from Africa from the Middle

East from different regions to make them

part of the solution and so that each

and every country would be able to make

its own contribution to this just and

sustainable peace in Ukraine from uh

Return of the kidnapp children uh to

energy security food security of course

um nuclear security energy security and

we can discuss that in the Q&A part

later in details so I'll stop here and

thank you so much um all right we are

now going to move on to Dr ha helier he

specializes in geopolitics security

studies and political economy holding

more than 20 years of experient

experience in governmental corporate and

academic environments in Europe the

United States the Middle East and

Southeast Asia currently he is a scholar

at the Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace serving as senior

assoc associate fellow at the Royal

United Services Institute for defense

and security and as a Cambridge

University fellow previously he was

appointed Deputy convenor of the UK

government's task force on

radicalization he was also a fellow at

the foreign and Commonwealth Office of

the economic and social research Council

and a fellow at the Brookings

institution in Washington DC a British

citizen of Miss English and Arab

Heritage he has spent his life between

the Arab world and the West all right

it's to you Dr helier thank you very

much uh to Elizabeth to seed um Steve

and you know everybody who made this

happen much appreciated and to my

co-panelists and of course to the

audience um for taking the time so my my

talk is about you know Mina and Ukraine

and you know the quote unquote Mina

perspective as it is and um uh I I want

to preface what I'm about to say by an

anecdote that I think will be useful for

elaborating upon uh how how much of a

disconnect there is uh between the

region um and much of the West so I

remember being in one Arab Capital

during the not the initial Invasion but

the initial flare up um a couple years

ago between Ukraine and Russia of course

they'

invaded Crimea um many years ago but you

know I'm talking about the the initial

sorry the the later sort of flare up and

uh I met with a senior Western Diplomat

and he was stunned and he'd been in that

particular Arab capital for several

years and you know he met with me and he

he was very upset you know he was in a

in somewhat of a State of Shock and he

was very smart he was one of the better

diplomats that I knew in the capital at

the time and I said what what are you

shocked about I said well I thought we

knew the people here I thought we

understood the people here I thought

that we agreed on you know things like

International order and so on and uh and

I can't get them to understand why it's

darely important that they support

Ukraine and uh he spoke to me because he

knew I did support Ukraine and that I

was actually very Pro Ukraine even

though I've never been to Ukraine I've

never been to Russia in that regard I

have no you know skin in the game but

I'm I'm very Pro Ukraine precisely for

the reasons that he pointed out R

International order and things um and uh

I was very surprised at his

response because it

reflected that he simply had no idea

where he was uh and the historical

context of where he was and how things

looked from that part of the world when

westerners such as myself or him spoke

about things like like International

order okay so you know um and I saw this

again recently I was uh I was in another

Capital recently and there was a

discussion going on between um I'll be a

little bit more transparent about about

this one between a Jordanian Diplomat

and the Swedish Diplomat now the swedes

as you know they have a particular um uh

a particular set of stances on the

Middle East that are actually you know

more unique I would say than a lot of

their European counterparts particularly

when it comes to Palestine and the

Israeli occupation um but they were

stunned you know at how Sweden had been

very pro- Ukraine and I thought wow I

mean the the lack of understanding

really goes both ways here uh because of

course on the Swedish side Russia's been

an enemy for a very long time for very

good reason right um and from the

Swedish side they've been quite

consistent in oppos opposing things like

Iraq and the Israeli occupation um so

there is a a disconnect here but you

know I still still think it's important

to try to understand how these how this

region actually looks at the crisis in

Ukraine because I think it's shared

among not just people in the Middle East

but uh among much of the global South

you know I spent a lot of time in

Southeast Asia as well and it's very

common there you know when people hear

words like international law the

immediate um response is

really really you know international law

on invasion of course it's terrible it's

like yeah but you guys invaded Iraq

right now of course Ukraine never

touched Iraq right but Ukraine is placed

into the category of being in the west

and that the West um of course not the

entirety of the West in fact there was

great opposition within the West to the

invasion of Iraq but it happened and it

was United States the most powerful

Western power that did so uh

occupation the you you have to oppose

the Russian occupation of uh eastern

Ukraine it's like occupation really you

know when you consider that you know uh

one of the most prominent Western allies

in the Middle East has

occupied um uh Gaza the West Bank East

Jerusalem and S sorry and the Goan

Heights IE Israel since 1967 and where

resolution after resolution of the

United Nations is vetoed by different

Western powers of course most partly

United States so you know there's uh

there's this you know um uh complete you

know bewilderment at how you know we as

the West are telling you know powers in

the Middle East you know you ought to

oppose the Russian occupation of Ukraine

and yet the same principle doesn't seem

to apply when it it comes to the

Palestinians um destruction of Civilian

infrastructure and you know intern

International humanitarian law you know

this is all terrible how can you support

the Russians doing this in Ukraine um I

have to say this at the moment becomes

extremely difficult to to pass off as an

argument because of course what we see

is the destruction of Civilian

infrastructure and uh thousands of

civilians being killed in Gaza um while

the United States just vetoed a security

Council resolution precisely on that so

I don't want to get into you know the

the Gaza the palestin Israeli conflict

right now but these are the discussions

that constantly come up and it's very

difficult to make the argument otherwise

you know I say this again as somebody

who makes the argument very regularly

that Ukraine ought to be supported um

and that the Russians ought to be

opposed because of these facts um but

you know it's it's difficult to make the

argument especially when the framings

become very difficult to apply because

again when we're talking about Russia

we're talking about in the popular

imagination the inheritor of the USSR

and the USSR is perceived as

anti-colonial right all of this is

nonsense because of course the USSR was

not was not anti-colonial the USSR was

extremely Colonial but not Colonial in

the in these places they were not

Colonial in the Arab world or in the

global South they were colonial among

subjects and you know Nations that were

under USSR were part of the USSR were

regarding themselves as under occupation

you know Nations like Lithuania for

example they make a great deal in their

public messaging now about support for

Ukraine saying this is an anti-colonial

struct struggle this is an

Anti-Imperialist struggle and of course

they really take that seriously because

they feel that they waged that against

the Russians in the

USSR um and of course Ukraine was a part

of the USSR and and actually Ukraine

helped many of the anti-colonial

movements while it was part of the USSR

but somehow it doesn't inherit any of

that credit um there's also as Yia

mentioned uh this idea around the

multi-polar sort of world that we are uh

are supposedly coming into um why look

for new enemies why look for new enemies

out of the new powers um and again I'm

not sure it's the the best argument to

use um but I think it's very strongly

held you know you see countries like

India which are not part of mina but you

know much further away they see it that

way um South Africa they see it that way

where you know it's not a unipolar world

it's going to be much more fragmented

and desperate so we really ought not to

be looking for fights with anybody and

just try to like be okay with with as

many as possible and another words that

it's far away again something I don't

think is particularly useful because you

know

you as Mina they're asking for powers

that are very far away to be you know

evenhanded on things like the

Palestinian Israeli conflict or on Iraq

and so on um so I don't think that

that's a great argument but you know it

is far away it is far away as far as

they're concerned so and then finally

and this is an important point that I

hope um we can discuss further as well

there's a massive disinformation

campaign underway you you know the

Russians put a lot invest of investment

into pumping thisinformation out there

um and they take advantage on a regular

basis through channels like RT and

things like that like you know the

amount of stuff that's been said about

Ukraine but also about other uh other

conflicts like Syria where of course

they backed the Bashar alassad regime is

absolutely incredible um and they're

very opportunistic um and of course

right now they have lots of material

because the uh the amount of suffering

that's going on within the uh the

occupied territory of Gaza they're using

that to the hilt you know I mean that's

um uh but they have great ammunition

there because they don't need to make

stuff up about how terrible it is um so

again I'm not saying we have to agree

with all of this stuff uh as I said from

the outset I'm actually very Pro Ukraine

because as ter as terrible as I think

the international order currently is I

think better than trying to tear it down

we to try to build it up because the

tearing of it down is just going to lead

to yet more and more tragedy um but we

have to take seriously how people really

genuinely uh and very often legitimately

think about the framings that we use and

how distant our framings sitting in

Washington or in London can seem to

people that are on the ground um I'm I'm

very know enthusiastic about powers like

Lithuania I mean they're small countries

but their messages are really powerful

you know um talking about anti-

anti-imperialism anti-colonialism um and

being very very clear about all of these

things saying look we we did that we did

that um so we can sympathize with your

own struggles in that regard um I don't

think there's anything else that I

should cover right now but uh thank you

again and I look forward to the

questions

great thank you so much Dr helier and

thank you to all three of our uh

panelists and you can all come on with

me at this point and um turn on your

camera so uh we can have a bit of a

discussion about things um we do have a

fourth panelist who uh may not be able

to make it so Dr Shir Efron um is is

valiantly trying to get to a place where

she can uh access a computer um and get

onto onto this call call but I'm not

sure that's going to uh be possible but

if she does get here we will uh turn to

her and give her her time for her

comments um but if not we will uh miss

her and and move on um so one thing I

just wanted to see if we could expand on

a little because there's been quite a

bit of conversation about sort of

alliances in the system I'm I'm curious

about the the balance of power in the

region and the balance of power on on

two sides right within the region with

the sort of increase of the Russia Iran

Alliance and Saudi Arabia right as you

just said asking acting as a peace

broker is there any sort of shift

amongst Regional actors in the balance

of power and then the second side of

this is about the US and Russia right

yenia um talked a lot about you know

Russia's goals here and what it's trying

to do in terms of changing the rules of

the system and we have seen Russia in

you know we'll call it recent but you

know at least the last you you know 10

15 years having a renewed more

opportunistic activism in the region

right their involvement in Libya their

intervention in Syria their arm sales

and so do you see a changing dynamic

between the United States and Russia in

the region in terms of a balance of

power and I will let anybody who wants

to respond to that

respond

yes Dr

helier well I'll take a stab at it

um so I think

for as much as we might say that there's

some sort of realignment going on um I

don't think it's really um about Russia

per se if that makes sense uh I think

that those powers that were pro- Russia

or aligned with Russia previously they

continue to be um I don't think that's

really changing um and they're not as

common well they're not as strong as

powers that are not um I think what you

do see are other alignments frankly that

are more important which are within the

region in terms of developing new

alliances of course all of these things

are presently um being thrown up in the

air you know we were talking about Saudi

Israeli

normalization um which is in cold freeze

now because of the Israeli bombardment

of Gaza which is incredibly unpopular

across the region um and I you know it's

I I think that those realignments are

going to be put into deep freeze for a

while um when it comes to uh any other

broader geopolitical realignments um

again very little to do with Russia

everything to do with with what is going

on right now in uh uh in Israel

Palestine which I suspect you could have

another session

on I just wanted to chime in also that's

okay um and say I think um I agree with

everything Hashem said to be honest and

I think two weeks ago we both may have

answered that question a little bit

differently but the last 10 days have

really thrown you know where alliances

are aren't or how people are interacting

with each other um I'm happy that you

touched upon just you know what Russia's

doing in Libya what Russia's doing in

other countries it's definitely I think

it's always had an aggressive Outlook in

their foreign policy in the Middle East

and so I don't think this is a change of

course for them I think if there's a

change of course anywhere it's probably

China getting much more friendly with

most governments AC oh he's a rolling

his eyes but I think has maybe agrees a

little bit but he um yeah I think China

has become much more aggressive in their

approach to the Middle East and that's

problematic for the United States at

least yeah maybe just a couple of words

to be up on what usra mentioned also

with China and of course here we can

mention the China brokered so Iran deal

and generally China's presence not only

as uh a power with let's say soft power

talking about infrastructural projects

but also basically as a security

provider or facilitator mediator so this

is the niche which is now being uh

filled by Chinese influence and which we

have not seen before and actually when

China came up with a so-called peace

plan for Russia Ukraine this was was

also I think for many kind of a

surprised that China is trying to play

this kind of unconditional role in um

unusual um regions in unusual settings

for China but I think important uh

another important uh thing to mention

here is how Russia is actually losing

influence in the region and this is I

believe one of the reasons why both Iran

and China can be more influential in

certain areas which is another uh

problem and another uh concern for for

the West uh when you look at the

Dynamics in Russian Iranian relations or

even in Russian chinesee relations you

can see how this let's say second

largest army second largest military

power which Russia

self-proclaimed uh itself to be before

is now trying to get some weapons some

Military Support some financial support

from its new allies across the world and

why this matters because basically North

Korea is very far away from the Middle

East but this is important because when

you see Russia which is kind of this

great power competition etc etc great

power going to North Korea to ask for

some missiles or tanks or whatever they

take there this also tells you a lot

about the nature of power in Russia and

about the economic situation Russia is

now in and obviously uh in the Middle

East uh Russia is trying to portray

itself as a powerful State uh as uh Dr

helier mentioned of course uh as a

continuation of the

uh USSR and then uh Power which is

dealing with all these uh

anti-imperialism anti Colonial movements

which is not so this shows us how all

these Illusions turned out to be shallow

Russia is not a great power Russia is

not USSR these were 15 different

republics Russia is a colonial state

colonizing uh countries both uh in

Africa in the Middle East and of course

in its close uh vicinity which is kind

of the soft tbelly post Soviet Union era

and Russia is not a social or socialist

State because this is also something I

hear a lot about how all these leftist

movements talk about cap capitalism in

the west and then Russia being on the

other side and then when you look at

what oligarchs Russian oligarchs are

doing in the west and how Russian people

are actually suffering from poverty in

Russia this also tells you about how

fake uh all these Russian narratives

have been so far and of course it has

implications for alliances in the Middle

East and on how Russia is now being

perceived in the Middle

East thank you for that do you all see

that this this is impacting stability in

the Middle East right is there going to

be you know any kind of you know shifts

or any instability that this will cause

and if anyone is actually doing anything

to try to address this potential outcome

in the region yeah Dr

helier uh do you mean in terms of

Russian moves um or yeah okay well again

I I don't think it's as uh pertinent

anymore you know like you pointed out

had this discussion been going on a

couple weeks ago uh perhaps we would be

answering it quite differently um Russia

is really on the sidelines I mean look

there's a massive crisis at the moment

where's

Russia where's Russia you know big

superpower woohoo you know but uh yeah

you're you're not remotely relevant

except that you're sort of like cheering

things on uh I mean frankly they they

put forward a good resolution at the UN

for humanitarian access but they were

vetoed by the US um but there's nothing

there's nothing else going on right it's

not you know nobody's calling for Russia

to sort of you know host a big massive

conference uh to bring peace and

stability and

security um anywhere

right um or that there's no there's no

real involvement here I mean people are

people are moaning and winching about

the United States but they also want

them to come right so there's the that's

very telling to me you know as critical

by the way as I am about the American

role but nothing's happening when it

comes to Russia right nobody's

interested in Russia or for that matter

the

Chinese okay um I think the Chinese have

a lot more of a long game when it comes

to the region anyway

um so they could actually throw their

weight around I think significantly more

but still you know um I don't see that

there's you know Russia in my opinion

Russia comes in when they see a vacuum

that they can fill with relatively

little difficulty so they did that in

Syria and they did that to great effect

in Syria they did that to a limited

extent in Libya okay um in Egypt not

really um uh pictures and you know I

mean frankly like you know when it comes

to Egypt I felt that you know the the

the the flation as it were with Russia

all had everything to do with the United

States and and very little to do with

Russia as Russia um the the the the

military hardware of the country is far

more American than it is Russian you

know I mean there's there's not a lot

going on here in my opinion again it's I

don't think anyone's looking to make a

make an enemy out of Russia nobody's

looking to fight with Russia nobody's

looking to tick them off okay um but I

don't think that I I don't think that

there's any quote unquote instability

that Aris because I just don't think the

Russians are that significant in that

regard directly speaking now of course

when it comes to conflicts that are

elsewhere so you know the war with

Ukraine it had a massive impact

particular in North Africa but not

because the Russians were coming into

North Africa but because of wheat

because of Food Supplies because of the

overall impact of the Ukraine Russia war

on uh on global economy and food and you

know um that that that sort of thing

which you know of course is incredibly

tremendous in terms of impact but it's

not direct right it's the result of and

consequences of something more direct

somewhere

else thank you and yeah Gena yeah

probably just just a couple of words to

add to what Dr haer said I think that

when you mention Russia you cannot

mention stabilization in in the same

sentence it's rather quite the opposite

about

destabilization uh because whereas on

the one hand uh Russia is not capable of

having any major campaigns anymore in

any of the regions just look at caraba

what happened there and how Armenia did

not get any help from Russia for example

and it was it was all to aeran Etc but

Russia can destabilize and this is what

Russia exactly is trying to do to create

many crisis if not major conflict than

many multiple crisis at the same time

and then capitalize on its results and

then weaponize be it refugees be it

humanitarian crisis be it wheat and

grain and bread and everything Global

prices inflation it's being

instrumentalized and weaponized so in a

way that's why mentioned from the very

beginning that Russia is one of the

major beneficiaries from what is going

on now from Western Africa to uh Israeli

Palestinian Hamas issues because it's

not about stabilization it's about

destabilization and if you have

destabilization you have polarization

you can play these as bargaining chips

you can use these for again war of

narratives you can show how different

countries depending on the context are

bad and now for for example what Russia

is trying to do if you remember uh Putin

portrayed president zilinski who is Jew

himself from the very beginning has been

very anti-semite and then being all

anti-israeli Nazis F fascists etc etc

and Ukrainian side spent hours and hours

explaining how we are not anti-israel

and now what Russia is trying to do is

to show how Ukraine is anti- Palestinian

anti-arab etc etc because we said that

we feel sorry for everyone who L their

lives in the terror act which happened

in Israel so this is how it works and

hoping that Russia would play a

stabilizing role is something like

calling an arsonist and then asking to

put an end to a fire in a way so this is

a part of the problem and not a part of

the solution and of course for other

actors it's getting quite difficult

because you have elections in the US and

then you have many different crisis at

the same time to deal with you have the

European Union which still has to come

up with Solutions for many internal

problems etc etc so this is in a way

showing the crisis of international

organizations and the current world

order uh that we lack these uh efforts

diplomatic efforts to put an end to the

violence which is now happening and that

is where I actually agree with uh with

my co-panelist that it's probably easier

to fix what we have now in terms of the

United Nations reform and fixing the

world order rather than just starting

from scratch saying that there are no

rules anymore we go back to jungles and

then everyone is doing whatever he or

she wants but but it's tough and it's

really tough because we have to deal

with so many different problems and wars

and conflicts at the same

time um thank you for that I just want

to throw um because hasham had mentioned

Egypt and um when I think of Egypt and

Russia in this case I actually think

it's been interesting to see Egypt has

like Diversified its arm Sal so they're

not so I think the US is more like the

Air Force supplier but Russia is

definitely more an on the ground arm

supplier for them um but also I think

the bigger issue in Egypt is that

Ukraine was such a provider of wheat it

was the Bread Basket for a lot of Middle

Eastern countries and there's some real

fears about you know the rising cost of

bread and like bread riots and like you

know discontent from this from this food

security level and I know we didn't get

into it but I think that's just an

important point to

raise yeah I app appreciate you bringing

that up because the issues about food

insecurity and inflation and energy and

all of that is is also uh critical to

this so perhaps that'll come up in some

of the questions but I want to turn to

some of the questions that our uh

viewers have uh sent in um and again if

you are watching and want to submit a

question to our panelist please put it

down in the uh Q&A box all right so our

first question is from Don LoveIt who is

from Canada is the United States

presently trying to move Iran away away

from Russia given the prisoner exchange

also it's my understanding that Oman is

mediating a relationship between Saudi

and Iran to continue the separation from

Russia and there's an actual add-on here

in a second so hold on I'm scrolling

down to find it um and Oman is playing a

role in is Oman playing a role in the

relationship between Israel and Saudi

Arabia that was a lot yes I will take

the first half of it which would um I

think I can pretty confidently say that

that the United States cares a lot about

bringing Americans home and I think that

was the most important part of that

prisoner exchange for us um and I think

um we also care deeply about having a

how can I put this it's better for us if

maybe Iran is distanced from Russia and

it's better for us if most of the world

is distanced from Russia so that's not

specific to

Iran

yeah Dr helier so the on the so I won't

go into the first part of the question

because I think yra speaks on behalf of

the American government so that's better

for her to deal with um whereas when it

comes to the second part um so

Oman

um uh Oman was involved in uh having you

know a a mediatory role between the

Saudis and the Iranians um as was Iraq

by the way um so I think that both of

those countries were

involved um I have to say you know again

I I really don't want to keep on doing

this but the last 10 days throw all of

this up in the air okay because of

Iran's connections to Hamas and hisbah

okay so uh and you know it's very

difficult to talk about this without

getting into the those details so you

know I'm not I'm not going to try to

derail the conversation but if we're

talking

about the uh the development of uh

relations between uh I think he asked

also about Oman um mediating between the

Saudis and the Israelis yeah the Saudis

and the Israelis don't need Oman to do

that okay they they do that anyway um

and actually you know I mean I I'm going

to be really Frank about something

something here I I thought it was

ridiculous uh that there was all of this

effort and focus and attention and

investment in DC on a normalization

between Saudi Arabia and Israel as there

was the most important thing that need

to be focused on within Middle East

policy and Middle East policy in

DC um for pretty much the entirety of

the Biden Administration was either a

absent okay purposely so huh you know I

mean the joke in D

was that Brett

murk's um main job was keeping the

Middle East um off of uh you know

President Biden's desk okay clearly

failed um but anyway um and that the

priorities were about Iran um and

expanding the Abraham Accords

particularly Saudi Israel stuff um and I

really thought it was extremely unlikely

like you know 90% unlikely that if it

would be possible for there to be a

Saudi Israel normalization deal during

the B Administration term one um and I

modulated that slightly um a few a few

weeks ago I I've gone back to it being

90 plus okay um I I really don't think

that's that's possible during this

Administration but none of that had to

do with Oman okay that was a three-way

discussion uh three main

involved um which were Saudi Israel the

United States which is also why it

became really complicated because each

one of those elements okay had moving

parts to them in order to come up with a

normalization deal that would work okay

uh again that's in deep freeze I Do by

the way happen to think that eventually

it may come back um and uh I don't think

that's in the far distant future but I I

I don't think right now uh

there were three parts to his question

right did we cover all parts or did I

miss

something I'm scrolling back down to the

additional

part he went for

question okay good all right and maybe I

can just add a couple of words on

Russian Iranian connection because I do

think this is very important and the

role of Iran in Russia's war in Ukraine

and on Ukraine in a broader sense is

really important and I believe often

underestimated I'm based in Odessa so

every single night Odessa and Odessa

region is being under attack by Iranian

drones so the shahad drones that Iran

sends to Russia and then Russia sends to

Ukraine though in different mode uh they

attack the wood storages uh in the

Odessa region specifically because this

is where we have major um infrastruct

for agriculture they attack SE Port

infrastructure just you know a couple of

weeks ago the sea port of Odessa itself

was bombed and then of course we talk

about the danu port which is another way

for Ukrainian grain to make it all the

way to the Middle East and other markets

so basically Ukraine is now at War both

with Russia and Iran and other countries

which willingly or unwillingly help

Russia like Belarus for example and this

is why it's really tough for Ukraine but

then uh as the war is now in the

fullscale war 19th month we also see how

this relationship gets institutionalized

and it gets deeper so now it's not only

about basically Russia buying some

drones from Iran but about joint

production so I think uh especially

until recently in Ukraine there was a

bit of this surprise on uh under

reacting to this Russian Iranian

cooperation because we are are at NATO's

doorstep and then Iranian drones

attacking Ukrainian ports sometimes end

up in Romania or somewhere in at the

Ukrainian Romanian border which is a

NATO member and then NATO members like

Bulgaria Romania and turkey have their

territorial Waters in the Black Sea and

Russia and Iranian drones are there to

create uh problems challenges and

basically cause uh damage and

destruction just at NATO's doorstep so

talking about how the US is trying to

divert Russia from Iran and Iran from

Russia I think that much more effort is

needed to tackle this particular problem

because this is how Ukraine is under

attack by both of these countries and

this is especially talking about food

security again about the fake narratives

by the Russian side who is pretending to

be part of the solution whereas it

itself creates the hunger and Global

food crisis by attacking food storages

and infrastructure in

Ukraine thank you all so much for that

um and just a reminder to our uh our

friends who are putting in questions

please be sure you put your name and

Country or affiliation all right I'm

going to ask a couple of questions now

in a row and then you all can choose um

which parts um uh you uh want to and to

respond to um so uh yaron gamberg uh

research fellow from inss of Tel Aviv

University following yesterday's

Declaration of Russia and Iran on

expiring of the UN embargo on Missile

technology transfer to Iran when do you

think the two countries will expand

their missile

cooperation okay so that's one the

second one is from Antonia deu director

of Middle East unit Institute for

security and defense analyses in Athens

Greece in what ways could the the

Ukraine Russia conflict impact the

overall security situation in the Middle

East including potential implications

for ongoing Regional conflicts how

strategic is the alignment of Russia

with North

Korea taking into consideration the

latter's involvement in the war on

Ukraine with the reported sending of

military equipment and ammunition that

enabled Russian forces to attack

Ukrainian defenses in the eastern part

of the

country all right I'm going to stop with

those two they're they're they're

they're quite a bit right

there maybe I can uh try this time uh

regarding uh missiles and uh joint

production and cooperation on that uh

obviously this is one of the reasons why

Russia has to be isolated and why the

sanctions regime is important it's not

to cause suffering to Russian people as

Russia is generally talking about it's

just to cut off the supplies of uh dual

uh dual purpose Goods dual use Goods to

Russia different chips different

semiconductors all type of uh things

that can be used for especially military

production that will end up as missiles

or drones in Ukraine or in some other

parts of the world because as mentioned

before Russia is also present in Syria

Russia is also present in Libya

destabilizing the region so when we

don't have a tough sanctions regime we

can be sure that we will see the

consolidation of this um access of

authoritarian States like Russia Iran

North Korea to some extent China because

there the Dynamics a bit diffic

different but still and then all type of

non-government actors including Terror

organizations which are very much uh

supported and backed by Russia in

different countries uh across the Middle

East but this is one of the Legacy which

Russia actually took from the um USSR

these connections and ties to different

military organizations paramilitary

organizations and of course Russian

mercenaries Wagner group but not only it

there are tons of different uh private

military companies which are now active

in the Middle East and in Africa so if

nothing is done there and that's also a

part of the answer to to the second

question we will probably see these

growing uh sometimes tactical alliances

sometimes uh adhoc cooperation between

Russia and all these state that I

mentioned regarding Russia and North

Korea for North Korea it's obvious I

mean this is an absolutely isolated

State PR state so for them to get this

access to Russia and to have this warm

welcome for from Russia is obviously a

huge Advantage both in terms of

reputation but also in terms of

um real uh you know this kind of opening

to the world but for Russia I think that

should have been seen as a humilation

because if Russia has to ask for support

from North Korea this tells you a lot

about the current state of play inside

Russia so I'll move on to the next

question this is from Patrick Costello

he is a EU official working on the

geopolitical impacts of the Russian

invasion of Ukraine uh thank you hasham

for the clarity in showing why the

classic arguments on supporting Ukraine

don't have traction does the argument

that two wrongs don't make a right work

how do you think the argument for

supporting Ukraine should be made in the

Middle East and North Africa and I'll

you uh well thank you Mr Costello uh for

your compliment your question is

excellent um as would be expected um so

really two things one the two wrongs

don't make a right thing um I think uh

is very difficult to

uphold

when um we we don't say that this is

also wrong right so we have to be clear

about that and admit our wrongs admit

what we have done as the West if we're

talk and again the West is a really big

thing huh you know I mean the UK I'm a

Brit all right and as I as I know you

are um and you know we we've done a lot

of you know not so great things um I I

work in DC America's been responsible

for a lot of bad stuff and we just need

to be honest about it if we're really

going to make the argument of two wrongs

don't make a right we need to be clear

about this wrong being a wrong so that

we can say that's why you shouldn't

support this wrong um and I think that

it's the the lack of transparency in

that regard and incredible double

standards okay so again like you know

what comes up again and again and again

and again whenever I bring up you know

supportive for Ukraine um Iraq invasion

and support for Israel in the occupation

and Siege of Palestinian territories it

comes up again and again and again and

they're not wrong okay they're not wrong

they're not wrong to call out our double

standards when it comes to particularly

these particular issues again doesn't

apply to Ukraine Ukraine did not invade

Iraq Ukraine did not support uh with

arms even if some of the political

language has been rather regrettable um

the Israelis okay so yeah it's stop

holding them to account for stuff they

didn't do right but when we're talking

about these wider dynamics of course

people line up with the alliances that

they know of okay and Ukraine for

entirely reasonable

justifications considers itself part of

is part of the West okay so

unfortunately gets lumped along for this

sort of stuff um even though I don't

think it should be because it wasn't

responsible um how to make it better um

I mentioned uh Lithuania in particular

just because I find their public

diplomacy on this stuff to be really

good where they really remind people

that hey by the way imperialism isn't

simply um a western product it's pretty

equal opportun

and one of the better purchases of the

product was the USSR all right um and we

know that because we were victims of it

what what do you mean a Western Country

can be victim of imperialism and

colonialism it's like yes that was us

and also other people that were stuck

under the Soviet boot okay it's like wow

that's that's intriguing you know so to

to be I remember being at a National Day

celebration prthu

um and the the Ambassador um and this

was in in a Middle East Country um he

used words like anti-colonial struggle

he used words like anti-imperialism he

used words like resistance against you

know the Invader um and the these are

all not just justifiable they're

completely right you know they're

incredibly right and they're very up to

date you know it's not we're not talking

that 20 30 40 years ago we're talking

now like right now um and I think that

was very powerful I think it shook

people up because they're like no no

wait this isn't compute anti-imperialism

can only be about you know against the

West right um and the fact is is that

it's not just about the West it can also

be about non-western Powers um and in

particular in this regard Russia okay

but we have to be consistent you know um

we will find it very difficult to get

people to recognize the importance of

upholding International order if if we

only say that hey it applies here but

there thank you hasham and since oh I'm

sorry just one second since we've had

additional people join us I just want to

remind you that usra is speaking for

herself and not the US government just

so everyone uh knows yes

yena yeah thank you for the question

that was not for me but I just wanted to

add one thing and that is a presence in

the informational space of uh the Middle

Eastern countries uh which uh very

specific uh targeted content and also in

the languages of those countries because

I know it also from Turkey for example

that many Turkish people do not

necessarily speak English and in Arab

countries that the same and what Russia

is doing they have been specifically

active and present with Arab language

Spanish language for Latin America for

example uh very specific content which

is easy which is understandable which is

sexy which is populist of course and it

go through all those lines of uh

Colonial Imperial West and then nice

Russia so my uh it's not a

recommendation but probably appeal would

be also to step up efforts to reach out

to hearts and minds of people in the

Middle East and to speak uh let's say

normal language so less official state

statements but rather trying to have

some kind of social media campaigns

knowing the specifics of the audiences

in those countries because what I can

tell you from Ukrainian experience and

Ukraine can be a perfect opportunity to

reframe the whole narrative and

discourse specifically for those reasons

which hasham mentioned because Ukraine

has not invaded Iraq Ukraine has not

been part of the Imperial or Colonial uh

Legacy but rather on the opposite so

Ukraine can be a perfect case to show

the fallacy of all these Russian

Concepts so what we have been doing is

reaching out to those countries in

Africa in Latin America in the Middle

East in the so-called Global South

though I hate the term but just to name

you know India Indonesia and all these

countries to explain what Ukraine is all

about because very often you will hear

all these weird narratives not because

someone dislikes Ukraine or is super

pragmatic and just wants to trade with

Russia which is another thing but just

because they have no idea about history

of Ukraine there are no Ukrainian

studies uh centers think tanks

University there it's all viewed via

Russian lenses so we what we can do is

tell our story and storytelling in a way

that would be really appealing to those

people is important and when we tell our

stories saying that we are white we have

I don't know blue eyes or green eyes but

we are a victim of colonization it

relates very much to to to to the

experiences of those people in the

region but it's important to go there to

talk to have uh bilateral contexts

multilateral contexts and to step up

presence in the informational sphere

because Russia is everywhere from Russia

Today to Sputnik whereas from Ukrainian

side unfortunately we lacked resources

for a long period of time and now we try

to step up effort so probably if the US

and generally European countries could

support Ukraine's efforts in countering

Russian disinformation in the Middle

East and Africa that would be a

win-win-win situation for the Middle

US great thank you all right I'm going

to read a couple questions again um Rena

panou from the United States how does

fomenting chaos benefit Russia or any

other Nation for that matter does it

distract the world from other issues

uh and then aan miti from Libya one of

the factors in the Middle East in the

Mediterranean affected by the Russo

Ukrainian war is that the people there

have come to believe that the region

must enter into forced alliances with

Russia in order to create some kind of

balance of power this is the result of

foreign countries interfering in their

Internal Affairs for example Russia

expansion in Libya and its role in

influencing the electoral process

now we see some statements or messages

from Putin that appeal to the feelings

of those sympathetic to the Palestinian

cause my question is to what extent do

you believe that direct US military

intervention in support of Israel will

create a new kind of acceptance for

Russian expansion in the region given

Sean okay

so first of all I don't think that

anybody prior to the last 10 days was

really under any illusion the United

States was not incredibly

pro-israel um and hardly an honest

broker in the conflict between the

Israelis and the Palestinians so in that

regard I don't think it's terribly new

um I do think it's a reconfirmation of

people's worst suspicions uh about lack

of balance and the absence of double

standards when it comes to the

region um and uh one thing is very

different in in 2023 I suppose as

compared to I don't know I think back

historically speaking when I first

started in this sort of Arena um first

we have social media which means that um

uh two things happen disinformation gets

spread like wildfire

so there's a great effort by the

Russians to engage in

disinformation um and people consume it

right like RTI is very influential RTI

Arabic I'm not very pleased about but

you know that's the way it is um the

other thing is that discourse becomes

very um very

widespread um so something that happens

Illinois okay will be

throughout the Arab world by the

following

day um if not by the end of that day

depending on the time difference so you

know the the discourse that has been

spread across the airwaves huh uh by

American politicians by British

politicians by British media American

Media um let alone Israeli politicians

and Israeli media huh when it comes to

Palestinians Arabs and Muslims has

really been

atrocious um not just in the past 10

days H you know there's lots of stuff

that relates to this and I'm bring this

up because everybody sees

it okay so because everybody sees it

what then happens the Russians bring it

up and the Russians say look at them

they hit you right they they think

you're a bunch of Barbarians they say

flatten Gaza um which by the

way they did they did say that and

they've been doing that but you know you

you have prominent Republican um who was

it Lindy Graham like he actually said it

outright he said flatten it right you

have uh uh and then what happened in

Illinois Palestinian kid six years old

stabbed 26 times by his

landlord um every I guarantee you

everybody knew about that in the Middle

East within a few hours okay because

social media moves like that

and the Russians take full advantage of

it let me tell you it goes off on all of

their media right uh to remind people

that you know look here are very senior

uh American politicians American Media

you know um and sometimes they make

stuff completely up okay but it does

mean that there is this strengthening of

narrative that becomes very difficult to

ignore um so does make our job as uh as

people who are trying to you know

educate and inform that much more

difficult because the narratives are not

baseless you know there's incredible

anti-muslim and anti-arab bigotry across

wide sves of the West you know it is

mainstreamed in our political debate and

discussion and media Outlets across the

West okay um I study this you know I'm

uh I I do academic work on this and have

done since 2000 all right it is scary at

how much of this stuff is not relegated

to the far right but is part and parcel

of the mainstream Central disc Centrist

discussion on these issues um and people

see it and because of social media a lot

more people see it than they used to so

yeah we've got a lot of work to do and I

seriously thank you anyone El

yes yeah I wanted to uh get back to the

question why Russia wants chos and why

how actually Russia capit capitalizes on

that and that's also building up on on

what Hassam just said because uh you

know it's really easy to use all uh

these um crisis violence uh to spare

islamophobia but also all kind of

polarization in societies and that is

how you have done far right parties or

farle parties being popular across

Europe which of course benefits Russia

because this is how you undermine the

liberal values this is how you undermine

trust in institutions this is how you

can show that United Nations for example

is completely Paralyzed by vetto power

sometimes of Russia sometimes of the

United States sometimes of China and

this is why Ukraine is talking about the

need for reform in the United Nations

but all in all it show it shows you how

the whole world is stuck how it's

inefficient and how there is no solution

to the problem that you have and when

you have no solution and when you have

fear this is how reflexive control

operations work and this is especially

what Russia is doing psychological

operations information operations

undermining trust and credibility of the

liberal

Institutions and this brings me to the

point that uh you know there are two

types of power you have either power of

mass destruction or power of mass

attraction Russia has nothing to attract

with Russian soft power is not even zero

it's below zero because there is nothing

in the model of Russian society which it

with which it can attract uh nations in

the Middle East in Europe anywhere even

its own people so what you can do is

either blackmail with nuclear weapons

all these uh war moring and then you

know this kind of nuclear saber Rin that

Russia is very much engaged in or you

can show that yes we're not ideal but

then the West is even worse so align

with us and for this specific reason of

course it's better to have this chaos

across the world because there is no a

model of the order that Russia can offer

it just has a dis order model which

would benefit Russia and all other

authoritarian illiberal government and

non-government

actors great thank you all right so we

have uh really only a few minutes left

so I'm going to read just the last two

questions and then uh we can answer the

parts that we can and then we'll turn it

back over to uh Steve Spiegel all right

so Deborah Lynch from the United States

um why is no one mentioning India in all

of this isn't their biggest fear the

military threat of Iran whom obviously

has ties to Russia do any of you feel

that all of this Strife in Europe and

Russia will eventually involve India in

some way and then the last question masi

Sadat who's an MA student from

Copenhagen University Russia not getting

involved in the Gaza crisis is not

because it's irrelevant or powerless and

international media has in fact focused

on whether or not Russia and China would

get involved inad instead as I view it

it's because Russia doesn't want to lose

Israel's neutrality over Ukraine as well

Russia Israel agreements and cooperation

regarding Golan and Syrian border and to

a lesser degree the large Russian

population in Israel are factors that

might explain Russia's passiveness what

do you

think yes usra um hi guys um I'm gonna

take on the first half of that a little

bit and I think the premise is a little

bit wrong I don't think India's number

one threat is Iran I think India's

probably number one threats are internal

and I think because of that India has

had a really aggressive islamophobic

stance within their own country and To

The World At Large and has really

fermented a lot of violence towards

their internal Muslim populations and I

think encouraged violence going the

other way

um uh and I will hand it over to my

co-panelists for the for the rest thank

you yep Shan um I I don't I don't have

anything to add on the India Point um

the Russia point with regard to Gaza I I

don't think is correct um because you

have seen actually Russia um issue

political statements that are pretty

condemnatory um of the Israelis uh which

has actually wanted a lot of Applause um

in different places because of um

widespread feeling that you know they

actually happen to be right on this

particular point but uh I don't think it

has anything about you know um keeping

uh uh Israel's neutrality on Ukraine um

I think there's a much wider discussion

around Ukraine and Israel uh which is

probably not the time but uh I uh I

don't think that's what it is I don't

see evidence for that um I think on the

contrary um Russia is pleased to see the

United States States get uh entangled in

this particular crisis because I reckon

Moscow thinks that it will uh distract

the United States um from its support of

Ukraine um and certainly in discussions

in DC the bat you know it's it's we call

it bandwidth right you know somebody's

using up the bandwidth so we can't use

up other bits of the bandwidth so

bandwidth is being take up right now in

DC because of the the crisis in Gaza and

the Israelis and and so on um so that

just means less bandwidth for Ukraine um

and that that I think will impact all

discussions depending on how long this

goes on right um and I suspect it will

go on for quite some

there you have G any last comments

before we turn it over to Steve

Spiegel yeah uh just very uh briefly I

don't really think that um Russia uh

again Russia cares about this kind of

neutrality of of Israel in Ukraine for a

variety of reasons and I'm not going to

to die deep into that but uh it's

interesting how Russia is actually

supporting Hamas uh quite openly and for

me that's a different story rather than

supporting Palestinian civilians or

Palestine itself because if you have a

terror attack or a terror organization

then you probably have to be very clear

about that which does not of course mean

that you can flatten the territory with

civilians who live now in in Gaza and

here I agree totally with Dr Haler and

on India I think we haven't mentioned

India because it's not the Middle East

per se but rather the the South so we

might have another panel on indent

impacts of the war for it but not

necessarily now thank you great thank

you so much and I just want to thank all

three of you so much for sharing your

expertise and perspectives with us and

thank you to the uh those of you who are

watching and submitted your questions uh

we really appreciate it um and I'm going

to turn it over to Dr

Spiel uh thank you m so much Dr

Matthews

uh I I just want to thank all of you

this is uh a very very important session

more than I think uh many people might

realize because uh this is the first

discussion I've heard uh so far uh in

talking about the implications of what's

been happening the last couple of weeks

uh uh for the future and and we

Americans have to think about uh the

entire uh uh uh setting whether one

agrees or not with what uh issues were

raised or specific statements were M

were uh provided Ed

uh it's extremely important uh

presentation and I just can't thank the

three of you uh uh enough uh uh it's not

easy to to talk about these kinds of

issues but uh to indicate the changes in

the uh in the world as a result of

particular cases is is is always very

important but almost never provided but

that's what a universal is four and we

want to thank the three of you uh so

much uh and so appreciate I'd also like

to thank of course our team uh for

creating this opportunity for us to talk

today Manny Jad salame mahajer Emily uh

um I work with Emily every day but I

never say your last name so um I

we're we're going to go back in a way or

set in in the in the weeks that follow

to the situation that everyone is

talking about but I hope that it will be

in the context of what has been

discussed today so discussion number one

is part of our seed Roundtable series

Israel pales Palestinian uh crisis so I

think there's a lot more to it uh uh

than that and

our picture has been uh has suggested

that this morning but we have Aaron

David Miller from caring endowment who

I'm sure all practically all of you

wherever you are have seen him on TV

lately and Robin Wright of the wooder

Wilson Center and usip both are very

close friends um uh of our organization

of CED and Robin of course has has as

usual been uh writing away uh our second

discussion is uh on um uh November uh uh

1st uh it's got and the next two have an

Israeli and a Palestinian we have

Muhammad dagma uh of arak news from

Palestine and SAR Perry uh an extremely

important uh reporter from mot acon note

from Israel and then on November

7th uh we have um Hiba husseini of

husseini and husseini law uh

organization Palestine and Ryan snap

Center for strategic dialogue in Israel

both of them are welln both of them

trying to talk about what might be what

might happen What could happen uh in uh

Israeli Palestinian changes and

improvements of course this was

before uh uh to to weeks ago but um uh

we uh uh we uh look forward to what will

be a very interesting session perhaps

move us in a different direction by then

we can only pray so thank you for

joining us today and as you see uh

there's all sorts of uh uh suggestions

and information uh in in front of you

and let me say again thank you thank you

thank you to uh everyone who to the four

of you who presented this very important

session and we look forward uh to

everyone uh to our the next three

sessions and more that will be coming

for you uh from uh UCLA's CED thank you

all

byebye

Duration: 01:27:59

Sponsor(s): Center for Middle East Development, Center for European and Russian Studies, Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, Political Science, Department of Public Policy