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okay let's let's begin good afternoon
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from Los Angeles it's 1 p.m. here in
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California whoever is watching and
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listening online welcome this is a
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series of panels organized by the
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International Institute at the
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University of California Los Angeles
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about the impacts and applications of
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Copa 19 on different regions of the
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world my name is Kevin Harris I'm a
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professor in the Department of Sociology
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UCLA and I teach International Institute
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I'm joined here by my colleague Doug
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Laxman
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who is a political scientist and the
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head of the new Zion center Israeli
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studies at UCLA and we're joined by an
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illustrious panel to discuss the
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geopolitical implications of Copan 19
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for the Middle East this this panel is
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sponsored by Senator Phoenician studies
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Nazario Center for Israeli studies the
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center for Middle Eastern developments
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the Burkle Center for national relations
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and here at the UCLA international
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Institute I'd like to introduce our
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panelists we're excited for this
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conversation there's going to be a Q&A
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so if you're watching online feel free
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to send questions to our moderators and
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your question can possibly be delivered
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to one or all of the speakers in our Q&A
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section our three speakers today need a
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small deduction but their their
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accomplishments are illustrious
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so I'm going to be brief introduction so
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we can get into the discussion for today
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first we have ambassador Hassan Yousef
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who was a career diplomat with the
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initiative Foreign Affairs in Egypt he's
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held positions at the Organization of
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Islamic Cooperation and currently he's
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Jennings Randolph senior fellow at the
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u.s. Institute of Peace
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we also are happy to welcome
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Dalia dust-like Kay who's director of
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the center for Middle East public policy
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and a political scientist here in
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California at the RAND Corporation and
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finally ended Iran who is a senior
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lecturer of national relations at the
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universe
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- and is currently a visiting scholar in
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the department political science at
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Stanford University the order of the
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speakers who advanced to speak for about
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ten minutes on the geopolitical vacation
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took over nineteen for the Middle East
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in part or region are going to be has
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from yourself then died okay then who
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Iran so ambassador you said we like to
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begin please thank you very much it's a
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pleasure to join this panel thank you
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for the invitation let me start by
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saying that the pandemic resulted in
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global deceptions that have their
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reflections in the Middle East I will
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try to draw a global picture in 12
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points in with a format then address the
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Middle East implication in that context
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first we will miss the crisis in
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international cooperation with countries
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prohibiting export and using illegal
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measures and income some cases aren't
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twisting to steal medical shipments
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second there was a dismal performance by
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international and regional institutions
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until today we do not have a global
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strategy and we don't even have regional
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strategies to deal with dependent third
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the crisis gave ammunition to those
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arguing for bringing supply chains home
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an empty globalization move arguing for
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resilience at the expense of economic
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efficiency for national security
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purposes fourth peacekeeping is facing a
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huge challenge with global travelling
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comes to a halt coming to a halt and of
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course we can't resolve conflicts
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through fifth the global economy is
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devastated and this may lead to social
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unrest and we what's six I think because
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of movement constraints our life would
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be significantly shaped shaped in
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cyberspace
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and we it is yet to be seen what the
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young generation will think about that
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they were forced to seclusion and they
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may shape the new Korona world in
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cyberspace or
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perhaps have a contrarian appreciation
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for communal life we see seventh the
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future of mass protests will be in
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jeopardy eight I think people realize
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that government performance matters
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because government mistakes costs lives
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and plenty of lives
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ix I think there was also a dismal
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performance in crisis management
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providing accurate information
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countering misinformation and even
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conspiracy theories which were rampant
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then I think also the pandemic resulted
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in societal tensions as those who stayed
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home were angry because they felt that
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those who are living the rooms put them
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in danger regardless of why they were
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leaving their homes and then 11th
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I think the pandemic provided an excuse
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for some governments to expand into safe
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surveillance under the guise of tracing
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context of those who are benthic in fact
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and finally we thought that we had a
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pretty good command on science to
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relieve us of much of our suffering and
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of course we were definitely affirmed so
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the pandemic has shaken the foundations
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of our existence and this is not a
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temporary interruption of the norm I
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think we need to come to terms with a
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new world that is endemic and if the
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pandemic had caused huge challenges in
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the most advanced countries you can only
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imagine the kind of havoc it has been
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witnessing devastating conflicts massive
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delays
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displacement erosion of governance
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capacity social cohesion and so on but
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if I come to the Middle East I will
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address very briefly four points
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conflict dynamics healthcare systems
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democracy and change and the economic
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challenges if I go to the conflict
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dynamics there were those who are
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questioning when the pandemic started
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whether political efforts will be
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mobilized to resolve or at least
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stabilize some of the protracted
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conflicts and I think it's obvious today
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that
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there's not happen and probably will not
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happen it's interesting that for example
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in the israeli-palestinian conflict the
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Palestinians were in a dilemma between
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the necessity of cooperation which took
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place but in order to save life and
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political realities of annexation plan
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that was forcing them to move towards
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ending cooperation with Israel in Yemen
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we have we haven't seen any real
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progress on the ground in Libya we saw
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the situation even getting much worse
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with situation changing on the ground
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was savage taking back many areas from
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hefter in Syria political process has
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its ups and downs mostly downs but no
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real focus the ISIS has increased
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attacks in Iraq and Syria on the
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positive side you know there we have
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witnessed that a vacuum minister was
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chosen after a long delay and there is
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there is marginally reduced Iranian
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activity in Iraq we also have seen a
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reduction in escalation between the
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United States and Iran although this
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will probably be revised one revived
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soon when they start discussing in the
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Security Council the possible extension
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of an arms embargo so so you know the
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situation is is rather difficult but all
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these conflicts resulted in a
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humanitarian situation that has a
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staggering cost in Syria half the half
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the population was forcibly displaced
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and we have the worst humanitarian
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situation in the world in Yemen in
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addition to humanitarian catastrophes in
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many other places in the region but the
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general sentiment in many of these
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conflict areas is that well we can die
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from the virus but probably does death
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will come first either from the conflict
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from hunger or from other sicknesses as
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well so so they have also been suffering
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but they have all kinds of problems and
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they feel that the virus is not the
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biggest problem that they have and of
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course impossible to comprehend to
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contemplate social distancing in huge
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overcrowded and insanitary refugee camps
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of course humanitarian situations is
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extremely difficult in conflict zones in
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the best of times
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now I haven't add to that the Kahuna
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virus and disruptions in supplies
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shipping interruptions travel
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restrictions the decision-making delays
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and so on it made the situation very
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difficult for all those who are
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suffering individual on the positive
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side we saw some Gulf countries
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providing assistance to Iran a gesture
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to demonstrate political intend to use
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the crisis to ease regional tensions we
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saw the UAE becoming the second largest
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aid donor in the world and and so on
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but still we have our problems cut out
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for us and I think radicalization would
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be under on the rise and the conflict
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may become also more difficult in terms
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of how that the conflicting parties will
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deal with all kinds of requirements
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pertaining to the pandemic but the key
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point is that the developments
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pertaining to conflict wave driven by
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the conflict dynamics and they were not
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influenced in any fundamental manner by
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the pandemic if we go to the healthcare
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systems I think also it is you know as
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we have seen in in the countries that
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have the most robust healthcare systems
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they were suffering from all kinds of
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difficulties so the Middle East of
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course had these difficulties multiplied
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but it also reminded people in different
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places around the world particularly in
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developing countries that even if you
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are from the protected elite in society
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you must worry about the health of those
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neglected populations because at the end
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of the day the overall health in society
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depends on the health of its poorest
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people and if a second wave of
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infections is inevitable as economies
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open up according to experts and perhaps
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also a third wave may be coming by next
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fall then in many developing countries
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in
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loading in the Middle East probably
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already late in preparing for this
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eventualities if I go to democracy and
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change and I think this is crucial for
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the future of of the vision because the
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vision has witnessed a first wave of
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revolutions in the last decade and you
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know as a result of all kinds of demands
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coming from from from the people for all
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kinds of drivers but then after that as
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a result of the you know governments not
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responding we saw a second wave that had
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Algeria Sudan Lebanon and Iraq and so on
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and the grievances haven't been
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addressed and over and above now it has
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become even more difficult with public
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health concerns added to the list of
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these public grievances but in addition
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to the lockdown governments in the
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region intensified efforts to control
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the mindset so punishing those who are
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spreading information about the pandemic
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that contradicts the messages coming
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from from the government and there is
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clear evidence that some countries are
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preventing posters using the excuse of
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the fear of the spread of device and of
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course some governments are using
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surveillance tools to track those
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infected but all these technology tools
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can be abused to track protesters and
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opposition and of course state measures
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would be much more intrusive so so it is
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it is a problem in relation to how how
283
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things will develop in relation to this
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issue governments you know are
285
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struggling with the difficult difficult
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challenges of suppressing the viable the
287
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virus and reviving the economy and it is
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recognized that they occurred that the
289
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economic situation globally will suffer
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hugely from from dependent the IMF
291
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considers it a crisis like no other
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because of its depth and because the
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whole world is suffering the World Bank
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expects that half a billion people will
295
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be added to those who are destitute the
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World Food Programme thinks that there
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are 260
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million people that would be pushed to
299
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the brink of salvation so the cost is
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huge and in the Middle East also the
301
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Gulf countries have been suffering
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because of the price of oil countries
303
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dependent dependent on tourism like
304
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Egypt Tunisia Morocco and so on have
305
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seen zero traffic of course the Gulf
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also will have to send many workers home
307
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so this would affect workers admittances
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but also there is an impact on trade
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investment travel industries and so on
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so it is a taste problem and of course
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the debates on me or opening the
312
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economies are very difficult because it
313
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is it is very difficult to to have
314
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reconciling approaches between
315
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politicians physicians and economists so
316
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it is quite difficult so you know in the
317
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meantime also the millions of jobs over
318
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the Middle East will be will be lost as
319
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a result otherwise let me conclude by by
320
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indicating that countries will be facing
321
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a choice in relation to both their
322
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internal policies and their external
323
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policies and internally they will either
324
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benefit from the crisis and deal with
325
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the shortcomings in the model pratik
326
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democratic and rules-based faith-based
327
00:14:30,510 --> 00:14:34,500
approach or they will move towards
328
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curtailing freedom of expression and
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pursue a path of externally they have to
330
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take into account that the global system
331
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will be weakened and will either they
332
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will either adapt adopt inward
333
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isolationist policy or one based on
334
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genuine international cooperation and
335
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they will ask the question can we find
336
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global solutions to global problems or
337
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are we going to take a different route
338
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and I think in the Middle East I hope
339
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that the pandemic will have convinced
340
00:15:04,079 --> 00:15:08,070
people by now that the main challenge is
341
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good governance not whether we are Sunni
342
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or Shia secular or slack thank you
343
00:15:15,140 --> 00:15:20,070
okay thank you ambassador excellent
344
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:23,960
excellent point so I'd like to turn over
345
00:15:20,070 --> 00:15:26,730
to dr. kay and let's hear her remarks
346
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:29,250
okay well thank you so much to UCLA for
347
00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:31,890
hosting this as often occurs in these
348
00:15:29,250 --> 00:15:33,540
types of panels when you have such an
349
00:15:31,890 --> 00:15:34,530
excellent first speaker I really feel
350
00:15:33,540 --> 00:15:36,060
like I have very little to add
351
00:15:34,530 --> 00:15:37,770
ambassador I couldn't agree more
352
00:15:36,060 --> 00:15:40,230
especially with your last sentiment
353
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about the need for good governance and
354
00:15:40,230 --> 00:15:44,970
and leadership understanding a better
355
00:15:42,690 --> 00:15:48,000
way forward unfortunately I don't think
356
00:15:44,970 --> 00:15:51,510
we're there today what I'll do is I'll
357
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:53,250
focus on what I think are my basic
358
00:15:51,510 --> 00:15:55,560
premise at this point and I do want to
359
00:15:53,250 --> 00:15:57,630
caveat this by saying that we're we're
360
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very early into this crisis when we're
361
00:15:57,630 --> 00:16:02,490
talking about geopolitical impacts it
362
00:16:00,180 --> 00:16:04,020
will take years to really understand the
363
00:16:02,490 --> 00:16:05,940
full magnitude of such a
364
00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:09,240
transformational crisis as we're living
365
00:16:05,940 --> 00:16:12,300
in today so I just wanted to preface my
366
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,670
comments with that but at this stage I
367
00:16:12,300 --> 00:16:16,440
would say that short of governments
368
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collapsing which is possible because
369
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:21,750
this pandemic is coming at a time will
370
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:23,490
already intense fragility across this
371
00:16:21,750 --> 00:16:27,900
region and governments across this
372
00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:30,710
region I my main thesis is that I think
373
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the pandemic is largely accelerating and
374
00:16:30,710 --> 00:16:34,830
exacerbating existing trend lines so
375
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what I'll do is I'll outline a few of
376
00:16:34,830 --> 00:16:39,630
those key trend lines there are many I
377
00:16:37,470 --> 00:16:41,550
think I'll put israel-palestine on the
378
00:16:39,630 --> 00:16:43,830
side since I would speaking after me so
379
00:16:41,550 --> 00:16:45,180
I'll let you you speak to that I have
380
00:16:43,830 --> 00:16:47,400
thoughts on that but we'll let you speak
381
00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:50,280
to that and I'll focus on some of the
382
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:52,140
other region-wide trends which are not
383
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,910
largely negative and I will be arguing
384
00:16:52,140 --> 00:16:56,340
this crisis is unfortunately only making
385
00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:58,560
them worse and I'll just conclude with I
386
00:16:56,340 --> 00:17:00,570
think maybe a couple areas of openings
387
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:02,610
or potential shifts in in the
388
00:17:00,570 --> 00:17:05,069
geopolitical balance that may be
389
00:17:02,610 --> 00:17:06,540
resulting because of this pandemic so
390
00:17:05,069 --> 00:17:08,730
starting with with some of the key
391
00:17:06,540 --> 00:17:11,970
trends and I'll start with US Iran which
392
00:17:08,730 --> 00:17:13,740
is the space i watch most closely and
393
00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:16,319
here i might disagree a little bit with
394
00:17:13,740 --> 00:17:19,260
the ambassador unfortunately I think
395
00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:21,060
that while there was hope and and this
396
00:17:19,260 --> 00:17:24,750
would have been theoretically a
397
00:17:21,060 --> 00:17:26,610
brilliant time for a political opening
398
00:17:24,750 --> 00:17:28,020
to de-escalate this crisis there was a
399
00:17:26,610 --> 00:17:31,380
lot of talk about
400
00:17:28,020 --> 00:17:33,900
given how hard hit Iran was of course
401
00:17:31,380 --> 00:17:35,940
they themselves watch their response to
402
00:17:33,900 --> 00:17:39,360
this but the Iranian people are
403
00:17:35,940 --> 00:17:41,250
suffering considerably from this crisis
404
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:44,460
the Iran was the epicenter outside of
405
00:17:41,250 --> 00:17:46,770
East Asia if the outside of this crisis
406
00:17:44,460 --> 00:17:49,770
so there was talk about a humanitarian
407
00:17:46,770 --> 00:17:53,700
ceasefire humanitarian gestures ease the
408
00:17:49,770 --> 00:17:56,430
sanctions let up on escalation try to
409
00:17:53,700 --> 00:17:58,130
kind of reset obviously not a
410
00:17:56,430 --> 00:18:02,820
rapprochement between the u.s. and Iran
411
00:17:58,130 --> 00:18:04,380
but at least a pause we unfortunately
412
00:18:02,820 --> 00:18:06,090
there's also the sense that because of
413
00:18:04,380 --> 00:18:08,490
the the constraints on both sides at
414
00:18:06,090 --> 00:18:10,200
home with such a so many domestic
415
00:18:08,490 --> 00:18:12,270
pressures to deal with that that would
416
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,480
also lower the temperature and the
417
00:18:12,270 --> 00:18:16,380
incentive to continue escalating
418
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,710
unfortunately though I don't think this
419
00:18:16,380 --> 00:18:22,440
political opportunity has been seized
420
00:18:18,710 --> 00:18:24,060
and I actually would argue that you know
421
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,380
putting rhetoric aside although the
422
00:18:24,060 --> 00:18:27,770
rhetoric is still pretty strong on both
423
00:18:25,380 --> 00:18:30,150
sides even if you look at actual
424
00:18:27,770 --> 00:18:32,400
developments on the ground over the last
425
00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:34,620
few months we're actually seeing in my
426
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:39,150
view a continued escalation of this
427
00:18:34,620 --> 00:18:41,370
crisis we are just saw continued rocket
428
00:18:39,150 --> 00:18:44,640
attacks against from Iranian backed
429
00:18:41,370 --> 00:18:48,870
militia forces in Iraq in mid-march that
430
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:51,900
killed two US personnel we see Iran
431
00:18:48,870 --> 00:18:54,210
continuing to expand its be and push the
432
00:18:51,900 --> 00:18:56,370
limits on its nuclear program following
433
00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:59,190
of course the u.s. unilateral withdrawal
434
00:18:56,370 --> 00:19:01,140
from that agreement we've seen cyber
435
00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:04,010
attacks on Israeli water facilities a
436
00:19:01,140 --> 00:19:07,610
counter cyber attack from the Israelis
437
00:19:04,010 --> 00:19:11,490
military satellite launched last month
438
00:19:07,610 --> 00:19:12,540
the US for its part is threatening even
439
00:19:11,490 --> 00:19:14,430
though it's not in the nuclear agreement
440
00:19:12,540 --> 00:19:16,590
any more this kind of convoluted
441
00:19:14,430 --> 00:19:19,650
argument that it's in the deal so it can
442
00:19:16,590 --> 00:19:23,510
snap back sanctions and continue the UN
443
00:19:19,650 --> 00:19:25,800
arms embargo just today we saw the u.s.
444
00:19:23,510 --> 00:19:27,720
announced that it will stop the waivers
445
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,000
for International Cooperation to stop
446
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:32,670
the non-proliferation efforts occurring
447
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,080
in Iran I could go on and on but to me
448
00:19:32,670 --> 00:19:36,720
this is not an environment of
449
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:39,240
de-escalation since early January when
450
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:41,220
the u.s. and Iran engaged in the first
451
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,850
direct military conflict in the very
452
00:19:41,220 --> 00:19:43,620
long
453
00:19:41,850 --> 00:19:46,950
torturous relationship our two countries
454
00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:49,770
have so I would make the argument sadly
455
00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:52,830
that not only is the escalation not over
456
00:19:49,770 --> 00:19:55,880
but the pandemic may only incentivize
457
00:19:52,830 --> 00:19:58,559
both sides to double down on escalatory
458
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:59,850
policies even if the intent is not to
459
00:19:58,559 --> 00:20:02,070
have all out war and I've seen many
460
00:19:59,850 --> 00:20:04,410
analyses very convincing analyses that
461
00:20:02,070 --> 00:20:07,260
neither side wants war they can't afford
462
00:20:04,410 --> 00:20:09,510
it domestically etc etc but yet actions
463
00:20:07,260 --> 00:20:12,510
on the ground are leading us down this
464
00:20:09,510 --> 00:20:15,179
path you could argue and there are some
465
00:20:12,510 --> 00:20:18,270
we're continuing to see reporting of the
466
00:20:15,179 --> 00:20:20,520
debates and the Trump administration but
467
00:20:18,270 --> 00:20:22,049
those who are pushing for continuation
468
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,110
and maximum pressure a more hawkish
469
00:20:22,049 --> 00:20:27,150
position continually gaining the upper
470
00:20:25,110 --> 00:20:29,309
ground despite the lack of strategic
471
00:20:27,150 --> 00:20:31,080
results from this policy we are not
472
00:20:29,309 --> 00:20:33,360
seeing a better behaved Iran we're not
473
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,640
seeing a better nuclear deal but yet the
474
00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:38,309
focus is on continued pressure and and I
475
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:42,390
think there's a sense that you know Iran
476
00:20:38,309 --> 00:20:44,340
may be it facing this pandemic on top of
477
00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:45,929
protests we saw last fall at the top of
478
00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:48,840
the economic catastrophe the country's
479
00:20:45,929 --> 00:20:52,230
facing and of course the oil price
480
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:54,630
plunge we there are some who can been in
481
00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:56,309
bold be emboldened and feel Iran is on
482
00:20:54,630 --> 00:20:58,260
the ropes this is time for the knockout
483
00:20:56,309 --> 00:21:00,030
punch either to bring them back to a
484
00:20:58,260 --> 00:21:02,820
better deal or maybe it will lead to
485
00:21:00,030 --> 00:21:05,130
regime collapse but there are I think
486
00:21:02,820 --> 00:21:08,070
case there's a case to be made that the
487
00:21:05,130 --> 00:21:09,870
pandemic could lead to a confidence in
488
00:21:08,070 --> 00:21:12,929
the current strategy that will just
489
00:21:09,870 --> 00:21:15,690
encourage further escalatory actions the
490
00:21:12,929 --> 00:21:18,870
Iranians for their part could be viewing
491
00:21:15,690 --> 00:21:20,880
the situation in a similar way in the
492
00:21:18,870 --> 00:21:22,770
sense that they may feel well the u.s.
493
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:26,549
is more constrained now in terms of
494
00:21:22,770 --> 00:21:29,010
responding to our provocations and that
495
00:21:26,549 --> 00:21:30,690
because there's US elections coming up
496
00:21:29,010 --> 00:21:33,450
there's other priorities domestically
497
00:21:30,690 --> 00:21:35,970
the u.s. is facing this this pandemic is
498
00:21:33,450 --> 00:21:37,559
hitting the u.s. very hard that the u.s.
499
00:21:35,970 --> 00:21:41,669
is less likely the Trump administration
500
00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:43,320
is less likely to want to retaliate in
501
00:21:41,669 --> 00:21:47,840
any significant way
502
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:50,450
so my concern in sum is that the
503
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:53,850
potential of both sides being
504
00:21:50,450 --> 00:21:55,420
overconfident could lead to a continued
505
00:21:53,850 --> 00:21:58,330
escalation and even renew
506
00:21:55,420 --> 00:22:00,880
conflict even if both sides didn't end
507
00:21:58,330 --> 00:22:02,620
it so that's the strategic trendline the
508
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,480
first strategic and trendline that will
509
00:22:02,620 --> 00:22:06,070
actually touch every corner of the
510
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,770
region that I'm watching most closely
511
00:22:06,070 --> 00:22:11,650
that I think this pandemic has actually
512
00:22:08,770 --> 00:22:14,200
made worse potentially I hope I'm wrong
513
00:22:11,650 --> 00:22:16,120
but that's my Sussman at this stage the
514
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,040
second trend line that I'm looking at
515
00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:21,730
that I think many of us are looking at
516
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:23,800
are is the growing influence of Russian
517
00:22:21,730 --> 00:22:26,380
and Chinese involvement in the region
518
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:29,560
I'm less focused on Russia Russia's a
519
00:22:26,380 --> 00:22:32,650
more opportunistic actor faces its own
520
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:35,650
constraints in the region but China
521
00:22:32,650 --> 00:22:37,870
China has a long-term strategy in the
522
00:22:35,650 --> 00:22:40,540
Middle East it's developing through the
523
00:22:37,870 --> 00:22:43,390
belt and Road initiative extensive
524
00:22:40,540 --> 00:22:46,750
networks largely economic investment but
525
00:22:43,390 --> 00:22:48,430
it's a long-term plan to stay in this
526
00:22:46,750 --> 00:22:51,610
region they are most dependent on the
527
00:22:48,430 --> 00:22:53,380
region in terms of oil and I don't
528
00:22:51,610 --> 00:22:55,150
necessarily think it's a bad thing I'm
529
00:22:53,380 --> 00:22:56,800
not in the camp that says yes or no good
530
00:22:55,150 --> 00:22:57,880
or bad we could use some burden cheering
531
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,370
it all depends what they do with that
532
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:02,830
influence but it is a trendline to watch
533
00:23:00,370 --> 00:23:05,470
and what's interesting is that the
534
00:23:02,830 --> 00:23:09,490
Chinese have really capitalized on kovat
535
00:23:05,470 --> 00:23:10,930
and this pandemic to build even further
536
00:23:09,490 --> 00:23:13,330
relationships and deepen relationships
537
00:23:10,930 --> 00:23:17,650
with countries in the region you saw
538
00:23:13,330 --> 00:23:20,500
early on shipment of 250,000 masks to
539
00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:22,900
Iran for example in late April China
540
00:23:20,500 --> 00:23:25,510
signed a deal with Saudi Arabia for the
541
00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:28,240
purchase of Chinese test kits and
542
00:23:25,510 --> 00:23:30,430
medical expertise it's really an
543
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:33,340
interesting PR coup given how much China
544
00:23:30,430 --> 00:23:35,920
itself watched this their response to
545
00:23:33,340 --> 00:23:37,780
the pandemic and try to hide it at the
546
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,910
at the outset but they kind of turned it
547
00:23:37,780 --> 00:23:42,910
around and now it presented themselves
548
00:23:39,910 --> 00:23:45,070
at the trusted global power that can
549
00:23:42,910 --> 00:23:47,140
handle this kind of public health crisis
550
00:23:45,070 --> 00:23:49,330
better certainly than the United States
551
00:23:47,140 --> 00:23:51,130
so that's how they're presenting it I
552
00:23:49,330 --> 00:23:53,590
don't know how long lasting that will be
553
00:23:51,130 --> 00:23:55,960
but just looking at GDP and kind of hard
554
00:23:53,590 --> 00:23:57,700
numbers alone China's in the region for
555
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,800
the long haul and I think this pandemic
556
00:23:57,700 --> 00:24:02,410
has done nothing to reverse it and most
557
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:04,300
likely has accelerated it the third
558
00:24:02,410 --> 00:24:06,970
trend line which very much tracks with
559
00:24:04,300 --> 00:24:08,930
some of what the Ambassador said which
560
00:24:06,970 --> 00:24:11,270
is one of the most worrying trend lines
561
00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:13,010
the regions which is the continuation of
562
00:24:11,270 --> 00:24:13,640
entrenched authoritarianism and
563
00:24:13,010 --> 00:24:16,790
repression
564
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:19,030
again this is a unfortunately trend
565
00:24:16,790 --> 00:24:22,730
lines that have been ongoing
566
00:24:19,030 --> 00:24:25,880
particularly brutal after the counter
567
00:24:22,730 --> 00:24:28,640
revolutions from the Arab uprisings over
568
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:31,880
this past decade there's continued
569
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:35,570
unrest across the region society
570
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:37,520
societal divisions inequity corruption
571
00:24:35,570 --> 00:24:39,950
it's not just about unemployment
572
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,840
although that's a huge pressure I've
573
00:24:39,950 --> 00:24:43,790
seen some predictions that that this
574
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,380
pandemic combined with these previous
575
00:24:43,790 --> 00:24:47,420
pressures could lead countries like
576
00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:50,420
Jordan to face up to seventy percent
577
00:24:47,420 --> 00:24:52,340
unemployment youth unemployment huge
578
00:24:50,420 --> 00:24:55,100
pressures on these countries it's it's
579
00:24:52,340 --> 00:24:58,670
not a coincidence that this is a region
580
00:24:55,100 --> 00:25:01,760
that is ripe for breeding grounds for
581
00:24:58,670 --> 00:25:03,560
extremist groups unfortunately we saw
582
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:07,600
with the rise of Isis and concerns about
583
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:11,210
that returning so in this environment
584
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:14,510
unfortunately we have authoritarian
585
00:25:11,210 --> 00:25:16,720
leaders in in many places and even in
586
00:25:14,510 --> 00:25:20,630
those and kind of partial or semi
587
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:22,760
partial democracies you know really kind
588
00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:24,410
of going to the traditional playbook the
589
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,750
ambassador I think spelled it out well
590
00:25:24,410 --> 00:25:30,290
you know using the crisis the public
591
00:25:26,750 --> 00:25:33,110
health crisis as the cover to crackdown
592
00:25:30,290 --> 00:25:34,940
on legitimate political opposition and
593
00:25:33,110 --> 00:25:36,500
that's a really worrying trend line
594
00:25:34,940 --> 00:25:38,780
especially when they're resorting to
595
00:25:36,500 --> 00:25:41,180
these surveillance tactics that are you
596
00:25:38,780 --> 00:25:43,010
know are good good tactics to have in a
597
00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:45,800
public health crisis in terms of tracing
598
00:25:43,010 --> 00:25:47,360
and so forth but the but those tactics
599
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,640
combined with the strong role we're
600
00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:51,830
seeing in the military playing in many
601
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,710
of these countries particularly because
602
00:25:51,830 --> 00:25:57,050
of such weak state institutions those
603
00:25:54,710 --> 00:25:59,150
could outlast this pandemic and that's a
604
00:25:57,050 --> 00:26:00,620
very worrying trend line for anyone that
605
00:25:59,150 --> 00:26:03,230
would like to see forget about the
606
00:26:00,620 --> 00:26:04,490
democracy word but just for anyone would
607
00:26:03,230 --> 00:26:06,590
like to see better governance and
608
00:26:04,490 --> 00:26:10,070
accountability in this region extremely
609
00:26:06,590 --> 00:26:11,720
extremely concerning the the last one I
610
00:26:10,070 --> 00:26:13,850
will point to in terms of trend lines
611
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:16,730
again the Ambassador touched on it which
612
00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:18,170
is the humanitarian catastrophes before
613
00:26:16,730 --> 00:26:20,840
the pandemic largely man-made
614
00:26:18,170 --> 00:26:22,989
catastrophes caused by these horrific
615
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:27,259
civil wars in
616
00:26:22,989 --> 00:26:31,210
Libya and Yemen in particular and that
617
00:26:27,259 --> 00:26:35,059
has produced the some of the most
618
00:26:31,210 --> 00:26:36,919
daunting humanitarian crises that we
619
00:26:35,059 --> 00:26:39,190
have seen the region has the biggest
620
00:26:36,919 --> 00:26:44,629
displacement crisis since World War two
621
00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:46,940
globally so far and I you know we
622
00:26:44,629 --> 00:26:49,729
shouldn't hold our breath right now in
623
00:26:46,940 --> 00:26:51,950
countries that are most war-torn Syria
624
00:26:49,729 --> 00:26:55,159
Yemen the numbers of covet or particular
625
00:26:51,950 --> 00:26:57,049
are relatively low but you know the
626
00:26:55,159 --> 00:26:59,269
worst may be yet to come in the Middle
627
00:26:57,049 --> 00:27:01,399
East and as the Ambassador laid out the
628
00:26:59,269 --> 00:27:03,019
region is completely unprepared to deal
629
00:27:01,399 --> 00:27:04,820
with public health crisis of this
630
00:27:03,019 --> 00:27:08,299
magnitude in terms of health
631
00:27:04,820 --> 00:27:10,729
infrastructure capability and so forth
632
00:27:08,299 --> 00:27:12,649
and the refugee issue and a displaced
633
00:27:10,729 --> 00:27:16,009
person issue is particularly concerning
634
00:27:12,649 --> 00:27:18,200
given that refugees live in these
635
00:27:16,009 --> 00:27:21,049
crowded conditions both within camps in
636
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,249
these city areas or encampments and are
637
00:27:21,049 --> 00:27:24,169
more likely to have pre-existing
638
00:27:22,249 --> 00:27:26,450
conditions because they did have
639
00:27:24,169 --> 00:27:29,539
previous access to adequate health care
640
00:27:26,450 --> 00:27:31,460
so right now it has not multiplied the
641
00:27:29,539 --> 00:27:34,970
already daunting crisis but that I think
642
00:27:31,460 --> 00:27:36,950
is a huge concern that that covet is
643
00:27:34,970 --> 00:27:39,769
going to only exacerbate those those
644
00:27:36,950 --> 00:27:41,450
difficult conflict conditions and
645
00:27:39,769 --> 00:27:43,720
unfortunately I would agree with the
646
00:27:41,450 --> 00:27:46,279
Ambassador that the underlying
647
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,979
incentives to continue these conflicts
648
00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:50,690
are still in place unfortunately in many
649
00:27:48,979 --> 00:27:52,999
of these in these places we can get more
650
00:27:50,690 --> 00:27:55,820
into that in QA I want to just conclude
651
00:27:52,999 --> 00:27:58,460
with a couple I don't know if I want to
652
00:27:55,820 --> 00:28:00,320
say bright spots they may be short-lived
653
00:27:58,460 --> 00:28:02,330
but areas where where things may be
654
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,369
shifting a little bit and and here I
655
00:28:02,330 --> 00:28:06,769
want to make it clear that it's not just
656
00:28:04,369 --> 00:28:08,809
because of the pandemic I think a lot of
657
00:28:06,769 --> 00:28:11,149
this is also because we have a perfect
658
00:28:08,809 --> 00:28:13,759
storm of and they're related of course
659
00:28:11,149 --> 00:28:15,950
but the pandemic which with the oil
660
00:28:13,759 --> 00:28:19,369
crisis and the drastic drop in oil
661
00:28:15,950 --> 00:28:21,889
revenue and demand that combined with
662
00:28:19,369 --> 00:28:24,429
this public health crisis could have
663
00:28:21,889 --> 00:28:27,889
transformational effects in this region
664
00:28:24,429 --> 00:28:30,349
the one area where the first area where
665
00:28:27,889 --> 00:28:31,789
I think it's a potential opening and
666
00:28:30,349 --> 00:28:33,200
this is an area where I think this was
667
00:28:31,789 --> 00:28:35,299
happening anyway even before the
668
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,679
epidemic is this potential for
669
00:28:35,299 --> 00:28:38,869
de-escalation between the air
670
00:28:36,679 --> 00:28:41,119
Gulf and Iran between the GCC Gulf
671
00:28:38,869 --> 00:28:43,249
Cooperation Council States and Iran you
672
00:28:41,119 --> 00:28:46,730
already saw the United Arab Emirates
673
00:28:43,249 --> 00:28:48,889
even before the pandemic interested in
674
00:28:46,730 --> 00:28:50,570
talking reaching out to the Iranians
675
00:28:48,889 --> 00:28:53,450
they started to hold maritime security
676
00:28:50,570 --> 00:28:56,179
talks not coincidentally after they
677
00:28:53,450 --> 00:28:58,909
started to have tankers and and oil
678
00:28:56,179 --> 00:29:00,710
sites bombed a targeted by the Iranians
679
00:28:58,909 --> 00:29:03,080
over the summer last summer when the
680
00:29:00,710 --> 00:29:05,029
Iranians decided that they would exact a
681
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:07,610
toll for the Trump administration specs
682
00:29:05,029 --> 00:29:09,559
and pressure policy and some of these of
683
00:29:07,610 --> 00:29:11,389
Iran's neighbors in the Erb Gulf kind of
684
00:29:09,559 --> 00:29:12,950
looked turned around and said huh yeah
685
00:29:11,389 --> 00:29:16,399
we'd like the idea of Iran being
686
00:29:12,950 --> 00:29:19,070
contained we don't like Iran but this is
687
00:29:16,399 --> 00:29:20,779
your escalation you us your escalation
688
00:29:19,070 --> 00:29:24,049
with Iran is starting to literally hit
689
00:29:20,779 --> 00:29:27,139
home and and that's not okay because we
690
00:29:24,049 --> 00:29:29,869
don't want an implosion in Iran on our
691
00:29:27,139 --> 00:29:31,369
border this is not a strategic way to
692
00:29:29,869 --> 00:29:33,889
deal with the Iran problem so they
693
00:29:31,369 --> 00:29:35,450
started to reach out on their own and so
694
00:29:33,889 --> 00:29:38,509
we started to see some de-escalation
695
00:29:35,450 --> 00:29:41,649
there and with the pandemic I think the
696
00:29:38,509 --> 00:29:44,330
Ambassador mentioned this that we had a
697
00:29:41,649 --> 00:29:46,190
shipment from the Emiratis to the
698
00:29:44,330 --> 00:29:47,720
Iranians we even had high-level
699
00:29:46,190 --> 00:29:50,869
discussions that we have not seen
700
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:52,549
between the Emiratis and the Iranians so
701
00:29:50,869 --> 00:29:55,279
that's potentially good news we've also
702
00:29:52,549 --> 00:29:58,220
seen the escalation potential in Yemen
703
00:29:55,279 --> 00:30:00,139
the Emirates were already signaling an
704
00:29:58,220 --> 00:30:02,090
interest in winding that war down we've
705
00:30:00,139 --> 00:30:04,730
seen an interest in a ceasefire from the
706
00:30:02,090 --> 00:30:07,789
Saudis kovat could potentially
707
00:30:04,730 --> 00:30:10,580
accelerate those trends in the sense
708
00:30:07,789 --> 00:30:12,499
that there's less capacity potentially
709
00:30:10,580 --> 00:30:15,679
to engage in these kinds of conflicts
710
00:30:12,499 --> 00:30:18,499
with this pandemic and oil crisis raging
711
00:30:15,679 --> 00:30:19,789
at home the final I think shift which is
712
00:30:18,499 --> 00:30:21,980
I think one of the more interesting
713
00:30:19,789 --> 00:30:25,249
spaces to watch and relates to the first
714
00:30:21,980 --> 00:30:27,379
de-escalation but could have other
715
00:30:25,249 --> 00:30:30,649
impacts as well which is the changing
716
00:30:27,379 --> 00:30:33,649
nature of the Arab Gulf the the oil
717
00:30:30,649 --> 00:30:35,179
crisis and the pandemic is could
718
00:30:33,649 --> 00:30:37,249
potentially really change these
719
00:30:35,179 --> 00:30:40,100
societies for a long time for at least
720
00:30:37,249 --> 00:30:42,679
the past decade if not longer these
721
00:30:40,100 --> 00:30:44,299
smaller Gulf states Saudi Arabia the
722
00:30:42,679 --> 00:30:47,899
largest among them but the smaller Gulf
723
00:30:44,299 --> 00:30:50,509
states really have been asserting their
724
00:30:47,899 --> 00:30:53,449
power in a way disproportionate to
725
00:30:50,509 --> 00:30:56,419
what you would expect given their size
726
00:30:53,449 --> 00:30:58,129
and capacity and so one could argue or
727
00:30:56,419 --> 00:31:02,059
it's something to look at whether
728
00:30:58,129 --> 00:31:04,759
they're political clout will diminish as
729
00:31:02,059 --> 00:31:06,889
the expats leave their countries as
730
00:31:04,759 --> 00:31:09,289
they're not able to host these broad
731
00:31:06,889 --> 00:31:11,809
international summits I think Emirates
732
00:31:09,289 --> 00:31:13,959
how to cancel the expo in this fall they
733
00:31:11,809 --> 00:31:16,039
were expecting 25 million visitors
734
00:31:13,959 --> 00:31:19,479
they're going to have they're having a
735
00:31:16,039 --> 00:31:23,569
flight of their of their expat workers
736
00:31:19,479 --> 00:31:24,679
from South Asia some of this could be a
737
00:31:23,569 --> 00:31:25,940
very good thing because it can
738
00:31:24,679 --> 00:31:27,919
accelerate some of the diversification
739
00:31:25,940 --> 00:31:31,129
that they've been aiming for in terms of
740
00:31:27,919 --> 00:31:33,739
their own domestic reforms so I'm not
741
00:31:31,129 --> 00:31:35,059
saying it's a particularly bad thing we
742
00:31:33,739 --> 00:31:37,759
don't want people to lose jobs of course
743
00:31:35,059 --> 00:31:40,339
but it might not be such a bad thing to
744
00:31:37,759 --> 00:31:42,769
kind of recalibrate the weight of the
745
00:31:40,339 --> 00:31:45,649
Arab Gulf in the region and if it does
746
00:31:42,769 --> 00:31:47,239
serve to restrain some of their more
747
00:31:45,649 --> 00:31:49,399
assertive activities we've seen in
748
00:31:47,239 --> 00:31:51,289
recent years in Libya and Yemen in
749
00:31:49,399 --> 00:31:53,509
particular which have been really
750
00:31:51,289 --> 00:31:56,779
fueling extremely devastating Wars if
751
00:31:53,509 --> 00:31:58,279
they kind of turn and focus back home to
752
00:31:56,779 --> 00:31:59,690
some of these accountability issues we
753
00:31:58,279 --> 00:32:01,459
were discussing earlier that could be a
754
00:31:59,690 --> 00:32:04,879
very good thing so I think I'll just end
755
00:32:01,459 --> 00:32:05,869
on that more positive note and I look
756
00:32:04,879 --> 00:32:10,309
forward to hearing for about others
757
00:32:05,869 --> 00:32:12,559
thank you thanks for the positivity at
758
00:32:10,309 --> 00:32:14,509
the end and some interesting points
759
00:32:12,559 --> 00:32:15,859
about the so-called soft power of the
760
00:32:14,509 --> 00:32:18,259
Gulf is you don't hear it very often
761
00:32:15,859 --> 00:32:20,569
actually in in these discussions so
762
00:32:18,259 --> 00:32:21,859
let's turn it over to dr. Aron for his
763
00:32:20,569 --> 00:32:24,229
comments and then we've already been
764
00:32:21,859 --> 00:32:26,679
getting some questions online so feel
765
00:32:24,229 --> 00:32:29,989
free to as you're watching everything
766
00:32:26,679 --> 00:32:33,259
anything comes to mind send it in we are
767
00:32:29,989 --> 00:32:34,940
our QA format and Dov and I kind of
768
00:32:33,259 --> 00:32:38,989
corral these and directly back at the
769
00:32:34,940 --> 00:32:41,959
panel all right when I think UCLA for
770
00:32:38,989 --> 00:32:45,739
including me in this panel it's great to
771
00:32:41,959 --> 00:32:47,839
be here Dahlia said it was hard to
772
00:32:45,739 --> 00:32:49,669
follow it excellent first presentation
773
00:32:47,839 --> 00:32:51,859
so I guess I'm left with the saying that
774
00:32:49,669 --> 00:32:54,799
everything was said but not everyone
775
00:32:51,859 --> 00:33:00,109
said it so I'll try to despite the
776
00:32:54,799 --> 00:33:03,469
challenges providing for another some
777
00:33:00,109 --> 00:33:04,190
other perspectives so stand by saying
778
00:33:03,469 --> 00:33:05,990
some maybe
779
00:33:04,190 --> 00:33:08,929
general terms I agree completely with
780
00:33:05,990 --> 00:33:11,389
Dalia this is too early I think to offer
781
00:33:08,929 --> 00:33:13,879
serious analysis of where we're heading
782
00:33:11,389 --> 00:33:16,070
for a number of reasons we know from
783
00:33:13,879 --> 00:33:17,899
massive other massive pandemics that
784
00:33:16,070 --> 00:33:18,679
were over in human history like the
785
00:33:17,899 --> 00:33:20,690
Black Death
786
00:33:18,679 --> 00:33:23,980
in the 14th century that some of the
787
00:33:20,690 --> 00:33:26,000
effects rolled over for decades I
788
00:33:23,980 --> 00:33:30,200
Reformation which occurred 100 years
789
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:32,059
later some of its sources are founded in
790
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:35,750
the pandemic I think this is especially
791
00:33:32,059 --> 00:33:38,690
acute in the Middle East is over 60% of
792
00:33:35,750 --> 00:33:40,700
population is younger than 30 and so the
793
00:33:38,690 --> 00:33:44,149
generational effect on the people who
794
00:33:40,700 --> 00:33:47,649
will be challenged by this will unfold
795
00:33:44,149 --> 00:33:50,179
for many years I think the second
796
00:33:47,649 --> 00:33:52,100
general observation is that we cannot
797
00:33:50,179 --> 00:33:54,559
talk about the general trend in the
798
00:33:52,100 --> 00:33:57,169
region if you look at the data even of
799
00:33:54,559 --> 00:34:01,220
the illness it varies in different
800
00:33:57,169 --> 00:34:04,370
countries initially it was the non Arab
801
00:34:01,220 --> 00:34:06,500
actors that took the most heat in Iran
802
00:34:04,370 --> 00:34:09,139
at some point half the cases of the
803
00:34:06,500 --> 00:34:12,260
region at some point here on a turkey
804
00:34:09,139 --> 00:34:14,329
Israel and in terms of power relations
805
00:34:12,260 --> 00:34:17,359
you could say the United States so the
806
00:34:14,329 --> 00:34:20,720
same paradigm we saw in in power
807
00:34:17,359 --> 00:34:24,500
projection which was with a lot of non
808
00:34:20,720 --> 00:34:29,389
Arab actors replicated itself in the
809
00:34:24,500 --> 00:34:30,950
illness at least at some point in the
810
00:34:29,389 --> 00:34:33,319
last the general comment is that this
811
00:34:30,950 --> 00:34:35,690
coincided with this massive crisis of
812
00:34:33,319 --> 00:34:38,599
oil Dalia mentioned that the oil in war
813
00:34:35,690 --> 00:34:40,849
but also the dramatic decline in demand
814
00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:44,149
which will of course puts extra pressure
815
00:34:40,849 --> 00:34:45,950
on the limited resources M I want to
816
00:34:44,149 --> 00:34:47,889
offer a three so having with all these
817
00:34:45,950 --> 00:34:50,270
qualifications I think there are three
818
00:34:47,889 --> 00:34:53,629
perspectives I propose to look at the
819
00:34:50,270 --> 00:34:55,909
how this crisis will and food first of
820
00:34:53,629 --> 00:34:57,770
all the old theme that middle-eastern
821
00:34:55,909 --> 00:35:00,560
scholars and political scientists are
822
00:34:57,770 --> 00:35:04,730
looking at that's the state the Arab and
823
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:07,310
non-arab state it's an old attention
824
00:35:04,730 --> 00:35:10,010
between pan-arabism and the state state
825
00:35:07,310 --> 00:35:12,230
capacity and so it's fascinating to look
826
00:35:10,010 --> 00:35:15,980
how the state is an apparatus survive
827
00:35:12,230 --> 00:35:17,540
this it is of course a massive challenge
828
00:35:15,980 --> 00:35:20,240
state capacity but
829
00:35:17,540 --> 00:35:24,020
not perhaps in the traditional senses of
830
00:35:20,240 --> 00:35:26,810
a coercion power and military but rather
831
00:35:24,020 --> 00:35:29,770
on other aspects of status and such as
832
00:35:26,810 --> 00:35:34,340
the ability to deliver public health
833
00:35:29,770 --> 00:35:36,680
testing an even accurate information and
834
00:35:34,340 --> 00:35:38,960
so I think in a way for scholars who
835
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:41,390
study the region who any educated person
836
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:45,050
who is looking at it we are now offered
837
00:35:41,390 --> 00:35:47,360
a broader analytical tool to look at the
838
00:35:45,050 --> 00:35:49,550
role of the state that of course occurs
839
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:52,760
in a broader global context the bastard
840
00:35:49,550 --> 00:35:55,010
or already introduced this we are at a
841
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,930
moment I think globalization is going
842
00:35:55,010 --> 00:35:59,330
back and the state is a social
843
00:35:56,930 --> 00:36:03,080
institution is strengthening production
844
00:35:59,330 --> 00:36:07,670
we will be moving back it in stone and
845
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:09,290
so the you have to review or analyze how
846
00:36:07,670 --> 00:36:10,880
states are dealing with this challenge
847
00:36:09,290 --> 00:36:13,250
or how they're benefiting from this
848
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:15,950
global environment is going to be more a
849
00:36:13,250 --> 00:36:19,130
conducive I think for traditional state
850
00:36:15,950 --> 00:36:20,750
capacity within the state capacity
851
00:36:19,130 --> 00:36:23,150
discussion middle-eastern scholars look
852
00:36:20,750 --> 00:36:25,010
a lot at stake humanization security
853
00:36:23,150 --> 00:36:27,320
forces in the combination of
854
00:36:25,010 --> 00:36:33,290
technological abilities and repressive
855
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:35,570
regimes led to further measures to
856
00:36:33,290 --> 00:36:37,640
control to offer social control even in
857
00:36:35,570 --> 00:36:39,560
countries that are more democratic like
858
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,420
Israel in which suddenly turns out
859
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:43,120
internal security services are not
860
00:36:41,420 --> 00:36:45,290
following through their cellphones
861
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:48,320
citizens and whoever they interacted
862
00:36:45,290 --> 00:36:50,300
with weeks earlier and so in the short
863
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,160
term I think the state as an institution
864
00:36:50,300 --> 00:36:54,620
is obviously getting stronger there's a
865
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,720
range rallying around the flag it's the
866
00:36:54,620 --> 00:36:59,360
only institution that can maybe offer
867
00:36:56,720 --> 00:37:01,700
help but the in the long term there are
868
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:04,340
significant challenges the economic
869
00:37:01,700 --> 00:37:06,440
crisis is going to affect the global
870
00:37:04,340 --> 00:37:10,250
economic crisis decline in demand for
871
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:14,560
oil and the pressures and resources the
872
00:37:10,250 --> 00:37:17,120
man needed for the healthcare will
873
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:20,090
present more economic challenges and of
874
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:22,010
course resources economic resources a
875
00:37:20,090 --> 00:37:24,890
fundamental tool of the state to deal
876
00:37:22,010 --> 00:37:26,540
with these challenges it does offer a
877
00:37:24,890 --> 00:37:28,580
potential even in the long term
878
00:37:26,540 --> 00:37:31,840
strengthening if economy will further
879
00:37:28,580 --> 00:37:34,520
shudder as we saw in many
880
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:37,070
states.the the solution is greater
881
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,210
static born in the economy I think two
882
00:37:37,070 --> 00:37:42,490
countries are interesting in particular
883
00:37:38,210 --> 00:37:45,050
Lebanon and Iraq we saw a civil society
884
00:37:42,490 --> 00:37:47,570
response towards the state with
885
00:37:45,050 --> 00:37:49,670
demonstrations with new martyrs against
886
00:37:47,570 --> 00:37:51,590
the state this was somewhat halted with
887
00:37:49,670 --> 00:37:55,220
the crisis but would be very interesting
888
00:37:51,590 --> 00:37:57,590
to see how it rose so one perspective is
889
00:37:55,220 --> 00:38:01,340
the state the second perspective is the
890
00:37:57,590 --> 00:38:03,290
role of great powers one lens we are
891
00:38:01,340 --> 00:38:05,240
traditionally using at least in
892
00:38:03,290 --> 00:38:08,600
political science to look at the region
893
00:38:05,240 --> 00:38:10,790
is the role of external powers we were
894
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:13,490
already in the process of an American
895
00:38:10,790 --> 00:38:14,870
withdrawal of sorts especially under the
896
00:38:13,490 --> 00:38:17,870
current administration that's less
897
00:38:14,870 --> 00:38:20,720
committed to global leadership but we do
898
00:38:17,870 --> 00:38:24,080
not still have another global competitor
899
00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:26,900
ala the Cold War but I agree with Dalia
900
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:28,910
we are bound to see an American Chinese
901
00:38:26,900 --> 00:38:32,720
competition they were already early
902
00:38:28,910 --> 00:38:34,400
signs of that China is alia mentioned it
903
00:38:32,720 --> 00:38:37,220
was very eager to show it's dealing more
904
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,960
effectively with the disease and the
905
00:38:37,220 --> 00:38:40,520
American incentive does important
906
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:43,010
political incentive for the current
907
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:45,320
administration to paint China is the
908
00:38:43,010 --> 00:38:47,060
villain in the story and we already saw
909
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:49,670
American efforts including a visit of
910
00:38:47,060 --> 00:38:52,280
secretary compare last week in Israel to
911
00:38:49,670 --> 00:38:55,220
push the government disengage from some
912
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:57,110
infrastructure projects it will China so
913
00:38:55,220 --> 00:38:59,090
it's a funny moment in which one world
914
00:38:57,110 --> 00:39:01,880
great power is in decline the other one
915
00:38:59,090 --> 00:39:04,160
is not there yet there's any signs of
916
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:07,610
competition which made me drastically
917
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:11,660
affected by a new administration come
918
00:39:07,610 --> 00:39:14,120
the election or generate 2021 I think
919
00:39:11,660 --> 00:39:17,240
one structural opportunity here is for
920
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:20,560
regional actors to cooperate more if the
921
00:39:17,240 --> 00:39:23,530
great powers are not as dominant
922
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:25,970
maybe the Sunni alliance the Israeli
923
00:39:23,530 --> 00:39:27,050
Sunni relationship will have an
924
00:39:25,970 --> 00:39:29,660
ever-greater
925
00:39:27,050 --> 00:39:31,580
opening although I should caution is a
926
00:39:29,660 --> 00:39:34,700
Dahlia said perhaps on the guard state
927
00:39:31,580 --> 00:39:36,770
would prefer bandwagon II against Iran I
928
00:39:34,700 --> 00:39:39,740
eat joining Iran rather than a
929
00:39:36,770 --> 00:39:41,420
confronting it so we have the state we
930
00:39:39,740 --> 00:39:43,400
have great powers and I think the third
931
00:39:41,420 --> 00:39:44,690
lens is of course conflicts in the
932
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:48,859
region the
933
00:39:44,690 --> 00:39:51,020
short outlook I think for a short time
934
00:39:48,859 --> 00:39:53,060
the crisis froze some of the conflict
935
00:39:51,020 --> 00:39:55,790
because of the resources that had to be
936
00:39:53,060 --> 00:39:57,500
allocated or the a concern about the
937
00:39:55,790 --> 00:39:59,329
conflict there was definitely an
938
00:39:57,500 --> 00:40:02,359
opportunity to cooperate with so
939
00:39:59,329 --> 00:40:04,099
countries providing some assistance even
940
00:40:02,359 --> 00:40:04,670
in our own small corner of Israel
941
00:40:04,099 --> 00:40:06,950
Palestine
942
00:40:04,670 --> 00:40:09,020
it was much greater cooperation not
943
00:40:06,950 --> 00:40:11,300
directly even simply on health but on
944
00:40:09,020 --> 00:40:13,339
secondary issues like Israel an
945
00:40:11,300 --> 00:40:15,680
unprecedented way allowed Palestinian
946
00:40:13,339 --> 00:40:18,770
laborers remain in territorial Israel
947
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:21,890
for the length of the crisis that we saw
948
00:40:18,770 --> 00:40:26,329
flights after first-ever a flight of we
949
00:40:21,890 --> 00:40:29,000
had got airline into Israel and some
950
00:40:26,329 --> 00:40:30,740
flights from Israel Sudan which no one
951
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:33,319
took responsibility for but now we can
952
00:40:30,740 --> 00:40:36,650
see that something is happening however
953
00:40:33,319 --> 00:40:38,780
I have to join the pessimistic line we
954
00:40:36,650 --> 00:40:40,550
while it froze and while there were
955
00:40:38,780 --> 00:40:45,770
opportunities conflicts are still
956
00:40:40,550 --> 00:40:48,440
rolling there's a growing tension the
957
00:40:45,770 --> 00:40:51,410
Iranian front not only us UN but also
958
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:55,099
Israel Iran the dual cyber attacks as
959
00:40:51,410 --> 00:40:57,589
well as signaling from Hezbollah that it
960
00:40:55,099 --> 00:41:01,369
may take a more active role the last few
961
00:40:57,589 --> 00:41:03,650
weeks it indicated including on actions
962
00:41:01,369 --> 00:41:07,280
on the ground that it's ready to be more
963
00:41:03,650 --> 00:41:09,920
aggressive to deal with Israeli attacks
964
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:12,950
in Lebanon for example in a surprising
965
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:15,020
incident is Bala cut three places in the
966
00:41:12,950 --> 00:41:17,210
fence between Israel and Lebanon
967
00:41:15,020 --> 00:41:20,359
indicating that it wanted it could go
968
00:41:17,210 --> 00:41:22,160
through the holes it created and then
969
00:41:20,359 --> 00:41:24,740
there already so these are figure the
970
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:26,839
freelancer lenses state great powers
971
00:41:24,740 --> 00:41:29,270
conflict there were two questions about
972
00:41:26,839 --> 00:41:32,000
Israel Palestine would that be an
973
00:41:29,270 --> 00:41:34,730
appropriate moment to address them we'll
974
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:37,339
come to the questions in in in a moment
975
00:41:34,730 --> 00:41:40,790
so but but please if you have some
976
00:41:37,339 --> 00:41:43,520
concluding remarks I think the
977
00:41:40,790 --> 00:41:45,650
conclusion is in the first few weeks of
978
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,839
this shock there was a there was an
979
00:41:45,650 --> 00:41:50,390
opening for a shift I think in the
980
00:41:47,839 --> 00:41:52,579
consciousness I actually thought it
981
00:41:50,390 --> 00:41:55,329
reminded me a bit of the last days of
982
00:41:52,579 --> 00:41:57,519
the first Gulf War when suddenly
983
00:41:55,329 --> 00:41:58,959
American dominance in Iraq
984
00:41:57,519 --> 00:42:01,059
change the mind those people in the
985
00:41:58,959 --> 00:42:04,479
Middle East so there wasn't option for
986
00:42:01,059 --> 00:42:07,479
that but I think the stronger trends
987
00:42:04,479 --> 00:42:10,899
that were highlighted in my colleagues
988
00:42:07,479 --> 00:42:12,939
comments and in mine are stronger and
989
00:42:10,899 --> 00:42:14,679
then this potential not fully used
990
00:42:12,939 --> 00:42:19,479
opportunity change regional
991
00:42:14,679 --> 00:42:21,549
consciousness well thank you I want to
992
00:42:19,479 --> 00:42:23,019
thank all of our panelists ambassador
993
00:42:21,549 --> 00:42:25,479
Youssef dr. Tasaki
994
00:42:23,019 --> 00:42:28,269
and dr. Yvonne that was a really
995
00:42:25,479 --> 00:42:31,329
fascinating overviews of the impact of
996
00:42:28,269 --> 00:42:34,449
this pandemic on the region I think all
997
00:42:31,329 --> 00:42:37,209
three of you really made the necessary
998
00:42:34,449 --> 00:42:39,189
caveat that of course we're still in the
999
00:42:37,209 --> 00:42:41,949
early days of seeing the impact of this
1000
00:42:39,189 --> 00:42:45,969
pandemic and in fact its implications
1001
00:42:41,949 --> 00:42:48,429
will continue to affect the region for
1002
00:42:45,969 --> 00:42:50,259
many many years to come and so well this
1003
00:42:48,429 --> 00:42:52,809
discussion that we're having today is
1004
00:42:50,259 --> 00:42:55,989
just a very very early and initial look
1005
00:42:52,809 --> 00:42:57,909
at what will be what will continue to
1006
00:42:55,989 --> 00:43:00,219
have a massive and long-term potentially
1007
00:42:57,909 --> 00:43:01,779
transformative impact upon the region I
1008
00:43:00,219 --> 00:43:06,039
think the other thing that all three of
1009
00:43:01,779 --> 00:43:10,329
you agreed upon was the the way in which
1010
00:43:06,039 --> 00:43:14,229
the pandemic reinforces existing trends
1011
00:43:10,329 --> 00:43:16,149
exacerbates existing conflicts rather
1012
00:43:14,229 --> 00:43:19,269
than really fundamentally changing the
1013
00:43:16,149 --> 00:43:22,329
trajectory of the region's politics and
1014
00:43:19,269 --> 00:43:24,209
economics or humanitarian affairs and in
1015
00:43:22,329 --> 00:43:26,889
fact it's worsened it and so
1016
00:43:24,209 --> 00:43:30,159
unfortunately what was already a fairly
1017
00:43:26,889 --> 00:43:33,489
dire situation politically economically
1018
00:43:30,159 --> 00:43:35,409
and in humanitarian terms across the
1019
00:43:33,489 --> 00:43:38,169
region in the region at large has only
1020
00:43:35,409 --> 00:43:40,899
been made worse by the pandemic and as I
1021
00:43:38,169 --> 00:43:43,389
think was pointed out the worst may
1022
00:43:40,899 --> 00:43:45,809
still may be yet to come so this is
1023
00:43:43,389 --> 00:43:47,919
something of a depressing conversation
1024
00:43:45,809 --> 00:43:49,959
about the Middle East but then again
1025
00:43:47,919 --> 00:43:52,299
most many discussions about Middle East
1026
00:43:49,959 --> 00:43:54,459
politics tend to be somewhat depressing
1027
00:43:52,299 --> 00:43:57,369
so I suppose that's the that's the
1028
00:43:54,459 --> 00:43:59,979
drawback of our business let me now
1029
00:43:57,369 --> 00:44:02,039
we've we've been receiving questions and
1030
00:43:59,979 --> 00:44:04,539
that I want to encourage the audience
1031
00:44:02,039 --> 00:44:06,339
out there who are joining us from all
1032
00:44:04,539 --> 00:44:09,069
around the world to continue to send in
1033
00:44:06,339 --> 00:44:10,880
these questions and I will along with
1034
00:44:09,069 --> 00:44:13,730
Kevin try to put
1035
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:16,970
pose as many as we can to to our
1036
00:44:13,730 --> 00:44:19,150
panelists I'll begin with just throwing
1037
00:44:16,970 --> 00:44:21,800
out a couple of questions that that
1038
00:44:19,150 --> 00:44:23,900
concerned you know really focused on on
1039
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:27,050
points that were raised but maybe to get
1040
00:44:23,900 --> 00:44:28,720
into a bit more detail on on some of
1041
00:44:27,050 --> 00:44:32,590
these points so one of the questions
1042
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:35,420
that have come up as concerning the
1043
00:44:32,590 --> 00:44:39,530
effect that the precipitous decline in
1044
00:44:35,420 --> 00:44:42,080
oil prices has had you've mentioned that
1045
00:44:39,530 --> 00:44:44,990
this is this is kind of compounded in a
1046
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:47,210
way the the economic impact of the play
1047
00:44:44,990 --> 00:44:49,580
Bid 19 and the geostrategic
1048
00:44:47,210 --> 00:44:51,560
impact of this but perhaps you could you
1049
00:44:49,580 --> 00:44:56,060
might want to elaborate and in many ways
1050
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:59,950
all three of you I I would say for the
1051
00:44:56,060 --> 00:45:01,340
Arab world clearly is it going to
1052
00:44:59,950 --> 00:45:04,810
[Music]
1053
00:45:01,340 --> 00:45:07,700
accelerate the desire and the attempt to
1054
00:45:04,810 --> 00:45:10,130
diversify their economies away from
1055
00:45:07,700 --> 00:45:14,600
being rentier economies based upon oil
1056
00:45:10,130 --> 00:45:17,090
revenue for Israel on the other hand
1057
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:20,360
high oil prices scabies are an
1058
00:45:17,090 --> 00:45:22,070
opportunity to export natural gas and to
1059
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:25,040
increase them to potentially gain great
1060
00:45:22,070 --> 00:45:26,240
amount of wealth and in an more regional
1061
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,700
influence through its natural gas
1062
00:45:26,240 --> 00:45:30,700
imports does they decline in oil prices
1063
00:45:28,700 --> 00:45:33,380
and this is particularly for dr. Iran
1064
00:45:30,700 --> 00:45:37,670
will that impact Israel's ability to
1065
00:45:33,380 --> 00:45:40,160
export natural gas um what does what
1066
00:45:37,670 --> 00:45:42,620
does the declining oil prices mean for
1067
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:44,210
regional relations particularly the
1068
00:45:42,620 --> 00:45:49,340
relationship between or the competition
1069
00:45:44,210 --> 00:45:50,840
between Saudi Arabia and Iran so that's
1070
00:45:49,340 --> 00:45:51,920
one question the other series of
1071
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,650
questions that are coming and I'm gonna
1072
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:56,900
add to this a little bit a concern
1073
00:45:54,650 --> 00:45:58,880
something that hasn't been mentioned as
1074
00:45:56,900 --> 00:46:01,430
yet but is looming on the political
1075
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:04,430
horizon and that is Israel's potential
1076
00:46:01,430 --> 00:46:06,920
annexation of parts of the West Bank so
1077
00:46:04,430 --> 00:46:11,280
the question here and again feel free
1078
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:15,480
and able to respond to this
1079
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:17,340
does the likely annexation of parts of
1080
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:21,090
the West Bank maybe starting as early as
1081
00:46:17,340 --> 00:46:23,609
July and they may be particularly for
1082
00:46:21,090 --> 00:46:26,340
ambassador Yusuf there's been a report
1083
00:46:23,609 --> 00:46:28,020
in the Israeli Pro Netanyahu newspaper
1084
00:46:26,340 --> 00:46:31,020
Israel hayom today which said that
1085
00:46:28,020 --> 00:46:33,570
Jordan the Saudis the UAE and others
1086
00:46:31,020 --> 00:46:35,130
will not oppose annexation or they may
1087
00:46:33,570 --> 00:46:37,440
stew so publicly but they're not really
1088
00:46:35,130 --> 00:46:40,290
going to take any steps to really do
1089
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:43,650
anything about it does the impact of the
1090
00:46:40,290 --> 00:46:47,760
pandemic make it more or less likely for
1091
00:46:43,650 --> 00:46:49,770
Arab states to take strong actions in
1092
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:52,230
response to annexation of the West Bank
1093
00:46:49,770 --> 00:46:54,060
in other words are they now in a weaker
1094
00:46:52,230 --> 00:46:56,430
position worried about their domestic
1095
00:46:54,060 --> 00:46:57,869
populations and therefore more
1096
00:46:56,430 --> 00:47:00,349
responsive to public opinion and maybe
1097
00:46:57,869 --> 00:47:02,599
more willing to take steps to counter
1098
00:47:00,349 --> 00:47:04,980
annexation of the West Bank or are they
1099
00:47:02,599 --> 00:47:07,950
more nervous and therefore less likely
1100
00:47:04,980 --> 00:47:11,730
to do anything similarly on the question
1101
00:47:07,950 --> 00:47:15,660
of annexation the Palestinian Authority
1102
00:47:11,730 --> 00:47:19,349
has just in response to the the threat
1103
00:47:15,660 --> 00:47:21,480
of annexation the PLO has ended formally
1104
00:47:19,349 --> 00:47:24,150
announced its ending its agreements with
1105
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:27,030
Israel our in particularly security
1106
00:47:24,150 --> 00:47:30,150
cooperation with Israel is that going to
1107
00:47:27,030 --> 00:47:32,609
undermine the Palestinian Authority's
1108
00:47:30,150 --> 00:47:35,160
ability to respond to the corona virus
1109
00:47:32,609 --> 00:47:36,869
pandemic does what is the connection
1110
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,940
between these agreements with Israel
1111
00:47:36,869 --> 00:47:42,450
cooperation with Israel and the PA
1112
00:47:38,940 --> 00:47:44,430
ability to respond to their corona virus
1113
00:47:42,450 --> 00:47:47,250
pandemic and finally on the impact of
1114
00:47:44,430 --> 00:47:50,869
annexation for terrorist organizations
1115
00:47:47,250 --> 00:47:53,040
operating in the region is it likely to
1116
00:47:50,869 --> 00:47:55,080
increase their willingness to carry out
1117
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:57,900
attacks both within the region and
1118
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:59,250
further afield your Western countries so
1119
00:47:57,900 --> 00:48:02,580
there's a lot of questions feel free to
1120
00:47:59,250 --> 00:48:04,740
answer jack you know whatever most
1121
00:48:02,580 --> 00:48:06,450
interest you in those questions and
1122
00:48:04,740 --> 00:48:07,980
perhaps I'll start with Ambassador Yusuf
1123
00:48:06,450 --> 00:48:11,270
and again we'll work around the three
1124
00:48:07,980 --> 00:48:11,270
panelists in same order
1125
00:48:12,059 --> 00:48:17,579
very much let me let me try to respond
1126
00:48:15,900 --> 00:48:22,170
to the question in relation to an
1127
00:48:17,579 --> 00:48:26,339
accession I think the this issue is
1128
00:48:22,170 --> 00:48:29,099
make-or-break in relation to how the
1129
00:48:26,339 --> 00:48:31,019
possibility of establishing a two-state
1130
00:48:29,099 --> 00:48:34,109
solution and there are many who believe
1131
00:48:31,019 --> 00:48:36,269
that this would be the last nail in the
1132
00:48:34,109 --> 00:48:39,900
coffin of the two-state solution so this
1133
00:48:36,269 --> 00:48:44,459
is why the response in relation to this
1134
00:48:39,900 --> 00:48:45,989
issue will be huge of course different
1135
00:48:44,459 --> 00:48:48,119
Arab countries are dealing with this
1136
00:48:45,989 --> 00:48:49,499
issue in in different ways the
1137
00:48:48,119 --> 00:48:53,150
Palestinians have announced that they
1138
00:48:49,499 --> 00:48:56,130
will stop coordination and and so on and
1139
00:48:53,150 --> 00:48:58,380
Jordan the king of talk indicated very
1140
00:48:56,130 --> 00:49:01,259
clearly that this will put Israel and
1141
00:48:58,380 --> 00:49:02,849
Jordan on a confrontation path because
1142
00:49:01,259 --> 00:49:05,279
Jordan would be the one that would be
1143
00:49:02,849 --> 00:49:07,380
most affected by by this development
1144
00:49:05,279 --> 00:49:09,989
because of the annexation of the Jordan
1145
00:49:07,380 --> 00:49:11,999
Valley in particular but because of the
1146
00:49:09,989 --> 00:49:14,849
situation in relation to that a
1147
00:49:11,999 --> 00:49:16,799
two-state solution and I think the
1148
00:49:14,849 --> 00:49:19,130
message has reached Israel quite clearly
1149
00:49:16,799 --> 00:49:20,999
that this will have a huge impact but
1150
00:49:19,130 --> 00:49:23,969
unfortunately as well as dealing with
1151
00:49:20,999 --> 00:49:26,900
this issue in accordance to its internal
1152
00:49:23,969 --> 00:49:30,179
situation and the situation regarding
1153
00:49:26,900 --> 00:49:32,009
the Prime Minister Netanyahu and how
1154
00:49:30,179 --> 00:49:37,619
he's going to deal with his child and so
1155
00:49:32,009 --> 00:49:39,959
so will it will it result in more
1156
00:49:37,619 --> 00:49:43,170
excessive Messam absolutely because
1157
00:49:39,959 --> 00:49:44,880
because the argument that those who have
1158
00:49:43,170 --> 00:49:46,890
been advocating for peace for the last
1159
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:49,079
20-something years have been saying no
1160
00:49:46,890 --> 00:49:51,660
we will reach the two-state solution you
1161
00:49:49,079 --> 00:49:54,179
will achieve peace and so on so now even
1162
00:49:51,660 --> 00:49:56,910
those who have been advocating for for
1163
00:49:54,179 --> 00:50:02,189
peaceful for decades of saying we failed
1164
00:49:56,910 --> 00:50:04,019
and we don't have a solution and and so
1165
00:50:02,189 --> 00:50:07,619
it will become difficult so this gives
1166
00:50:04,019 --> 00:50:10,619
of course ammunition for all those who
1167
00:50:07,619 --> 00:50:14,369
are arguing for using violence using
1168
00:50:10,619 --> 00:50:16,410
that peace did it work so we will see
1169
00:50:14,369 --> 00:50:18,809
how things ever Jordan also is saying
1170
00:50:16,410 --> 00:50:20,999
that this is a violation of the peace
1171
00:50:18,809 --> 00:50:23,489
agreement between Israel and Jordan
1172
00:50:20,999 --> 00:50:25,010
because Israel and Jordan when they had
1173
00:50:23,489 --> 00:50:27,170
their it
1174
00:50:25,010 --> 00:50:29,990
the borders will not be eliminated
1175
00:50:27,170 --> 00:50:32,660
between the West Bank and Jordan now if
1176
00:50:29,990 --> 00:50:33,800
Israel annexes descend and considers as
1177
00:50:32,660 --> 00:50:35,960
part of his land
1178
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:39,920
Jordan would never really need borders
1179
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:41,810
between the West Bank Android so so we
1180
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,370
will see escalation of course at the
1181
00:50:41,810 --> 00:50:44,990
same time there are countries in the
1182
00:50:43,370 --> 00:50:46,730
region that do not want to anger the
1183
00:50:44,990 --> 00:50:49,730
United States at this point in time and
1184
00:50:46,730 --> 00:50:51,740
they are anticipating to see waiting to
1185
00:50:49,730 --> 00:50:54,290
see what the outcome of the elections
1186
00:50:51,740 --> 00:50:58,550
would be and so on so this will be a
1187
00:50:54,290 --> 00:51:02,500
situation where I expect escalation for
1188
00:50:58,550 --> 00:51:02,500
the few weeks and months took
1189
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:12,710
yes yes okay um yeah well I guess I'll
1190
00:51:09,710 --> 00:51:15,170
start with annexation it's just to
1191
00:51:12,710 --> 00:51:18,640
follow up on that I think the pandemic
1192
00:51:15,170 --> 00:51:21,350
is probably less of a factor then the
1193
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:24,650
than the US factor and the enabling
1194
00:51:21,350 --> 00:51:27,560
environment that the US has created
1195
00:51:24,650 --> 00:51:29,450
through the Trump plan which could be
1196
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:32,720
read as an annexation plan of sorts
1197
00:51:29,450 --> 00:51:34,040
itself so what's interesting is that to
1198
00:51:32,720 --> 00:51:36,740
the extent that we're going to see any
1199
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:39,590
constraints on Netanyahu for annexation
1200
00:51:36,740 --> 00:51:41,570
I would think they would come from
1201
00:51:39,590 --> 00:51:43,700
within Israel itself particularly its
1202
00:51:41,570 --> 00:51:45,560
defense establishment we've had seeing
1203
00:51:43,700 --> 00:51:48,710
just this week major figures in Israel
1204
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:50,090
who I'm sure will elaborate because of
1205
00:51:48,710 --> 00:51:52,220
the Jordan factor and other national
1206
00:51:50,090 --> 00:51:54,950
security considerations vehemently
1207
00:51:52,220 --> 00:51:58,010
arguing against annexation as a real
1208
00:51:54,950 --> 00:52:00,650
threat to Israel's security but I think
1209
00:51:58,010 --> 00:52:02,720
the dilemma with a broader Arab world is
1210
00:52:00,650 --> 00:52:04,340
that and this is one of those arguments
1211
00:52:02,720 --> 00:52:05,800
of you know these were trends that were
1212
00:52:04,340 --> 00:52:07,880
there before the pandemic
1213
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:10,520
unfortunately the Palestinian conflict
1214
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:12,530
is not really on the radar in the rate
1215
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:15,020
region anymore when you have civil wars
1216
00:52:12,530 --> 00:52:17,720
of the magnitude of Syria and Yemen and
1217
00:52:15,020 --> 00:52:20,900
even Libya is the Palestinian conflict
1218
00:52:17,720 --> 00:52:23,180
is not looking like the front and center
1219
00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:25,310
burning issue now of course emotionally
1220
00:52:23,180 --> 00:52:28,760
it still resonates in the region among
1221
00:52:25,310 --> 00:52:31,100
the republics of course but these Gulf
1222
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,420
leaders have made it very clear they've
1223
00:52:31,100 --> 00:52:34,070
they've turned in a different direction
1224
00:52:32,420 --> 00:52:35,360
and they were not really paying a cost
1225
00:52:34,070 --> 00:52:37,940
for it again they have this quite
1226
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:40,250
enabling environment the dilemma though
1227
00:52:37,940 --> 00:52:41,870
of course is that Israel could make
1228
00:52:40,250 --> 00:52:43,310
peace with these Arab states the problem
1229
00:52:41,870 --> 00:52:44,780
is it's not really it were with the Arab
1230
00:52:43,310 --> 00:52:46,700
world anymore it's been a long time
1231
00:52:44,780 --> 00:52:48,080
since the Israel has faced a real threat
1232
00:52:46,700 --> 00:52:50,150
for many surrounding Arab states
1233
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:52,190
actually relations with Egypt are closer
1234
00:52:50,150 --> 00:52:54,590
than ever the Gulf State normalization
1235
00:52:52,190 --> 00:52:56,270
phenomenon has been ongoing it's no big
1236
00:52:54,590 --> 00:52:57,950
surprise even though every day it seems
1237
00:52:56,270 --> 00:53:00,170
to be a new headline acting as if this
1238
00:52:57,950 --> 00:53:03,140
is some big you know a momentous event
1239
00:53:00,170 --> 00:53:05,300
it's really not big news so it's not
1240
00:53:03,140 --> 00:53:06,590
earth-shattering for Israel even to make
1241
00:53:05,300 --> 00:53:08,810
peace with certainly important to
1242
00:53:06,590 --> 00:53:10,640
symbolically to Israelis they want to be
1243
00:53:08,810 --> 00:53:12,200
accepted in the region but it's not
1244
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,030
earth-shattering because Israel isn't at
1245
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:16,550
war with Saudi Arabia it's at war with
1246
00:53:14,030 --> 00:53:17,570
Hezbollah it's at war with Iran these
1247
00:53:16,550 --> 00:53:19,580
are the conflicts that
1248
00:53:17,570 --> 00:53:22,220
to be solved and ultimately the
1249
00:53:19,580 --> 00:53:24,080
Palestinians and Israelis live on one
1250
00:53:22,220 --> 00:53:26,080
piece of land so they can make all the
1251
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:28,040
peace they want with the Arab world but
1252
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:31,610
ultimately that's not going to resolve
1253
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:33,410
the conflict that's right next door and
1254
00:53:31,610 --> 00:53:36,290
within their country especially if they
1255
00:53:33,410 --> 00:53:37,970
MX so I agree with the Ambassador I
1256
00:53:36,290 --> 00:53:39,920
think the trajectory is not looking good
1257
00:53:37,970 --> 00:53:43,010
the two-state solution wasn't looking
1258
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:45,410
very viable before the pandemic and with
1259
00:53:43,010 --> 00:53:47,930
Netanyahu capitalizing on the pandemic
1260
00:53:45,410 --> 00:53:50,540
in the election consolidating this
1261
00:53:47,930 --> 00:53:53,030
coalition that was probably unthinkable
1262
00:53:50,540 --> 00:53:56,030
before that Bennigan's would succumb to
1263
00:53:53,030 --> 00:53:58,160
the conditions he did really is making
1264
00:53:56,030 --> 00:53:59,450
the two-state solution looking like it's
1265
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,910
hanging on a thread more than it ever
1266
00:53:59,450 --> 00:54:04,430
has been and just briefly on the oils
1267
00:54:01,910 --> 00:54:06,380
decline I think I alluded to our ready i
1268
00:54:04,430 --> 00:54:08,620
it's gonna have an impact across the
1269
00:54:06,380 --> 00:54:11,210
region again combined with the pandemic
1270
00:54:08,620 --> 00:54:13,670
not just in the oil-rich States but all
1271
00:54:11,210 --> 00:54:15,290
those surrounding states and in Jordan
1272
00:54:13,670 --> 00:54:17,750
and Egypt and other economies where
1273
00:54:15,290 --> 00:54:20,540
workers rely on the remittances they get
1274
00:54:17,750 --> 00:54:21,770
from the oil Gulf economies but what I
1275
00:54:20,540 --> 00:54:24,710
think is a really really interesting
1276
00:54:21,770 --> 00:54:26,480
space to watch as I said is the social
1277
00:54:24,710 --> 00:54:29,300
and political impact it will have within
1278
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:31,790
the Gulf states themselves this rentier
1279
00:54:29,300 --> 00:54:33,620
state model already wasn't looking
1280
00:54:31,790 --> 00:54:35,300
sustainable they were already trying to
1281
00:54:33,620 --> 00:54:37,040
diversify economies because they knew
1282
00:54:35,300 --> 00:54:40,280
they couldn't buy off you know domestic
1283
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:43,640
discontent forever but now it's really
1284
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:45,290
now it's it's an existential crisis and
1285
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,790
and they're going to have to have a
1286
00:54:45,290 --> 00:54:50,480
different relationship with their
1287
00:54:46,790 --> 00:54:53,570
population to survive frankly so I think
1288
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:55,400
that is going to be potentially not just
1289
00:54:53,570 --> 00:54:58,730
an economic impact but a political
1290
00:54:55,400 --> 00:55:02,000
impact of what these states look like in
1291
00:54:58,730 --> 00:55:03,650
the months and years to come on Saudi
1292
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:06,140
Iran I think that that there's other
1293
00:55:03,650 --> 00:55:07,880
other factors that are kind of more more
1294
00:55:06,140 --> 00:55:11,360
at play in terms of whether things ramp
1295
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:13,610
up or down unfortunately you know hopes
1296
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:16,160
that you know maybe the oil price plunge
1297
00:55:13,610 --> 00:55:18,170
with a pandemic would lead let's say the
1298
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,970
Saudis to purchase less arms they were
1299
00:55:18,170 --> 00:55:22,310
the fifth largest arms purchaser in the
1300
00:55:19,970 --> 00:55:23,840
world think they purchased over sixty
1301
00:55:22,310 --> 00:55:26,240
billion just last year so there could be
1302
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:27,950
hopes that you know scaling back and
1303
00:55:26,240 --> 00:55:30,410
arms purchases in the in the face of
1304
00:55:27,950 --> 00:55:31,190
these other pressures would would maybe
1305
00:55:30,410 --> 00:55:34,130
lead to the
1306
00:55:31,190 --> 00:55:35,780
more de-escalation with with Iran and
1307
00:55:34,130 --> 00:55:37,910
the Iranians face similar constraints
1308
00:55:35,780 --> 00:55:40,400
the problem is these regional wars are
1309
00:55:37,910 --> 00:55:42,530
not that costly to fuel if there's a
1310
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:44,420
desire to do so so I think the real
1311
00:55:42,530 --> 00:55:46,490
question is political where will where
1312
00:55:44,420 --> 00:55:49,359
do these leaders in this region want to
1313
00:55:46,490 --> 00:55:54,140
take their countries and their people
1314
00:55:49,359 --> 00:55:56,089
thank you dr. Aron yeah let me add to
1315
00:55:54,140 --> 00:55:59,240
the next session one angle which I think
1316
00:55:56,089 --> 00:56:02,000
goes beyond simply Israel Palestine
1317
00:55:59,240 --> 00:56:04,099
that's the role of the EU seen from the
1318
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:06,710
region the EU is an important actor in
1319
00:56:04,099 --> 00:56:08,569
support in moderating a conflicts
1320
00:56:06,710 --> 00:56:11,000
moderating Israeli actions in the West
1321
00:56:08,569 --> 00:56:13,040
Bank supporting civil society
1322
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:17,329
particularly in North Africa and I think
1323
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:19,339
one side effect of the crisis is
1324
00:56:17,329 --> 00:56:22,430
weakening of the European Union
1325
00:56:19,339 --> 00:56:25,550
consequently its ability to serve prism
1326
00:56:22,430 --> 00:56:28,160
moderating a power over half of Israel's
1327
00:56:25,550 --> 00:56:30,050
exports it goes to the EU and if there
1328
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:34,220
was a stronger EU that took a stronger
1329
00:56:30,050 --> 00:56:36,950
position calculations in Jerusalem and
1330
00:56:34,220 --> 00:56:38,750
this weakness I'm afraid is not limited
1331
00:56:36,950 --> 00:56:42,200
only to moderating this conflict but
1332
00:56:38,750 --> 00:56:43,819
other aspects of the region may be
1333
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:46,400
looking for North America we don't think
1334
00:56:43,819 --> 00:56:47,930
about it a match but in some corners
1335
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:50,810
what the Europeans are doing is quite
1336
00:56:47,930 --> 00:56:52,760
significant I think that this decision
1337
00:56:50,810 --> 00:56:55,339
about the annexation specifically will
1338
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:56,450
be some internal negotiation as Dalia
1339
00:56:55,339 --> 00:56:58,760
mentioned between the security
1340
00:56:56,450 --> 00:57:01,430
establishment the Prime Minister who
1341
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:03,890
feels confident and desperate because of
1342
00:57:01,430 --> 00:57:06,140
the trial and in this discussion the
1343
00:57:03,890 --> 00:57:08,450
Arab position will play an important
1344
00:57:06,140 --> 00:57:10,040
role for the security establishment it's
1345
00:57:08,450 --> 00:57:12,079
important to note that contrary to
1346
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:13,910
previous debates like the one we had
1347
00:57:12,079 --> 00:57:16,609
between the security establishment and
1348
00:57:13,910 --> 00:57:20,119
Prime Minister Netanyahu over Iran we
1349
00:57:16,609 --> 00:57:22,760
have a stronger set weaker very set of
1350
00:57:20,119 --> 00:57:25,099
military insecurity leaders head of the
1351
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:29,450
Mossad is very close to Nathan near for
1352
00:57:25,099 --> 00:57:31,369
probably won't challenging and so not
1353
00:57:29,450 --> 00:57:32,690
sure how much we can we can count on
1354
00:57:31,369 --> 00:57:35,599
this is a moderating element
1355
00:57:32,690 --> 00:57:37,550
another potential unexpected development
1356
00:57:35,599 --> 00:57:39,470
is Israel hates to be in a situation it
1357
00:57:37,550 --> 00:57:42,500
deals with to France it is further
1358
00:57:39,470 --> 00:57:44,780
escalation which is Bala and Iran this
1359
00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:48,490
may provide some freezing
1360
00:57:44,780 --> 00:57:51,290
my element to this intention to annex
1361
00:57:48,490 --> 00:57:53,090
the second issue was what happens if
1362
00:57:51,290 --> 00:57:55,700
Israel in the Palestine Authority
1363
00:57:53,090 --> 00:57:58,430
stop cooperating and how would that
1364
00:57:55,700 --> 00:58:00,350
affect humanitarian effect I say a few
1365
00:57:58,430 --> 00:58:02,780
things I think first of all the PA is
1366
00:58:00,350 --> 00:58:05,780
pretty much dependent on Israel is an
1367
00:58:02,780 --> 00:58:08,450
institution not again not only directly
1368
00:58:05,780 --> 00:58:11,540
in health issues but economics access to
1369
00:58:08,450 --> 00:58:14,330
labor and so on I should also note that
1370
00:58:11,540 --> 00:58:16,640
as I said this number of times about
1371
00:58:14,330 --> 00:58:18,770
ending agreements and I think we have to
1372
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:21,590
wait and see the statement he made
1373
00:58:18,770 --> 00:58:23,870
recently is not enough if third
1374
00:58:21,590 --> 00:58:25,730
component is that Israelis who are
1375
00:58:23,870 --> 00:58:27,980
engaged in the West Bank and I should
1376
00:58:25,730 --> 00:58:29,720
also say Gaza in the security
1377
00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:32,630
establishment think about it already in
1378
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:35,420
monetary terms so there isn't a constant
1379
00:58:32,630 --> 00:58:37,760
awareness that this is not only a
1380
00:58:35,420 --> 00:58:40,010
conflictual political situation but the
1381
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,870
situation that can end up is a
1382
00:58:40,010 --> 00:58:43,730
humanitarian challenge directly to
1383
00:58:41,870 --> 00:58:45,650
Israel the PA collapses and there's a
1384
00:58:43,730 --> 00:58:48,050
humanitarian disaster is where we have
1385
00:58:45,650 --> 00:58:49,850
to fail or it it's maybe symbolic that
1386
00:58:48,050 --> 00:58:52,400
the commanding officer of home command
1387
00:58:49,850 --> 00:58:55,970
dealt with the meter is response to
1388
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:57,440
Corona in Israel is going to be very
1389
00:58:55,970 --> 00:58:59,180
soon the commanding officer of Central
1390
00:58:57,440 --> 00:58:59,960
Command which is the command responsible
1391
00:58:59,180 --> 00:59:01,550
for the West Bank
1392
00:58:59,960 --> 00:59:03,110
so the same general that dealt with
1393
00:59:01,550 --> 00:59:05,090
coralline Israel is not going to be
1394
00:59:03,110 --> 00:59:07,430
responsible for the West Bank
1395
00:59:05,090 --> 00:59:09,440
it's very moderate and smart general so
1396
00:59:07,430 --> 00:59:12,400
as much as we can pin our hopes on
1397
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:15,140
individuals is at least some hope there
1398
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:19,760
the third question that dome raised was
1399
00:59:15,140 --> 00:59:22,190
about energy it should be noted that
1400
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:24,500
Israeli efforts to export energy to
1401
00:59:22,190 --> 00:59:26,240
Europe especially well ready although
1402
00:59:24,500 --> 00:59:29,060
although there were many statements it
1403
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:30,680
faces significant difficulties for
1404
00:59:29,060 --> 00:59:33,470
example to recognize a massive pipeline
1405
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:35,540
and we were not close to major exports
1406
00:59:33,470 --> 00:59:38,060
it will weaken Israel's potential
1407
00:59:35,540 --> 00:59:41,720
leverage on Egypt and Jordan to country
1408
00:59:38,060 --> 00:59:44,960
see dad's export some gas - and it will
1409
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:47,860
weaken early mechanisms of energy
1410
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:50,750
cooperation especially the Egyptian led
1411
00:59:47,860 --> 00:59:53,240
Mediterranean a forum for gas which was
1412
00:59:50,750 --> 00:59:55,070
a early sign of an institutional
1413
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:57,380
regional arrangement around energy
1414
00:59:55,070 --> 00:59:58,490
what's energy it becomes less important
1415
00:59:57,380 --> 01:00:00,340
or gas
1416
00:59:58,490 --> 01:00:02,990
what and there'll be less incentive
1417
01:00:00,340 --> 01:00:05,420
develop this cooperation mechanism and
1418
01:00:02,990 --> 01:00:07,760
again an encore on a virus development
1419
01:00:05,420 --> 01:00:09,290
is the most important that's a Turkey's
1420
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,690
assertiveness in the eastern
1421
01:00:09,290 --> 01:00:14,680
Mediterranean and the challenges it goes
1422
01:00:11,690 --> 01:00:19,300
to energy the will the delivery and
1423
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:19,300
development especially along Cyprus
1424
01:00:21,229 --> 01:00:25,950
well thank you for those for that really
1425
01:00:24,029 --> 01:00:28,619
interesting answers we've got some more
1426
01:00:25,950 --> 01:00:29,609
questions coming in and I'm conscious of
1427
01:00:28,619 --> 01:00:32,999
the fact that we didn't have a great
1428
01:00:29,609 --> 01:00:35,849
amount of time so I'm gonna just again
1429
01:00:32,999 --> 01:00:38,249
pose a broad question that has come in
1430
01:00:35,849 --> 01:00:41,549
in different ways two or three of you
1431
01:00:38,249 --> 01:00:43,799
and then and then we'll we'll see how
1432
01:00:41,549 --> 01:00:45,900
much time we have left yes when we so
1433
01:00:43,799 --> 01:00:47,549
far the picture that you painted and I
1434
01:00:45,900 --> 01:00:49,289
think it's an accurate picture has been
1435
01:00:47,549 --> 01:00:53,789
a pretty bleak one I think we could all
1436
01:00:49,289 --> 01:00:58,559
say that are there any examples of
1437
01:00:53,789 --> 01:01:00,779
cooperation occurring that are that we
1438
01:00:58,559 --> 01:01:01,979
can see that board in that in response
1439
01:01:00,779 --> 01:01:04,729
to this pandemic whether it's
1440
01:01:01,979 --> 01:01:07,559
cooperation of the interstate level
1441
01:01:04,729 --> 01:01:10,190
where there was mention made of greater
1442
01:01:07,559 --> 01:01:13,200
cooperation within the GCC for example
1443
01:01:10,190 --> 01:01:16,170
but also cooperation societally maybe
1444
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:19,410
between different sectors or of these
1445
01:01:16,170 --> 01:01:21,150
domestic societies are we seeing actors
1446
01:01:19,410 --> 01:01:23,579
come together I mean some of these
1447
01:01:21,150 --> 01:01:28,009
countries have long been driven by
1448
01:01:23,579 --> 01:01:30,779
internal it divides sectarian divides
1449
01:01:28,009 --> 01:01:33,150
for example Lebanon is is one that comes
1450
01:01:30,779 --> 01:01:35,900
obviously to mind is the is the impact
1451
01:01:33,150 --> 01:01:38,940
of this crisis resulting or leading to
1452
01:01:35,900 --> 01:01:41,400
some surprising amounts of cooperation
1453
01:01:38,940 --> 01:01:47,009
or unity where there was previously
1454
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:50,069
division and discord and this again feel
1455
01:01:47,009 --> 01:01:52,079
free to bring in any specific country we
1456
01:01:50,069 --> 01:01:54,450
hadn't talked to about the use of here
1457
01:01:52,079 --> 01:01:56,759
you're obviously formid Egypt so I'm
1458
01:01:54,450 --> 01:01:58,979
wondering you know what we're seeing how
1459
01:01:56,759 --> 01:02:00,569
is this impacting Egypt both
1460
01:01:58,979 --> 01:02:04,410
domestically but also Egypt's
1461
01:02:00,569 --> 01:02:06,539
cooperation for example with Sudan or
1462
01:02:04,410 --> 01:02:08,900
with Israel or with its with its
1463
01:02:06,539 --> 01:02:08,900
neighbors
1464
01:02:09,820 --> 01:02:16,780
well unfortunately what we have seen
1465
01:02:13,630 --> 01:02:20,470
globally is that the response to the
1466
01:02:16,780 --> 01:02:24,070
pandemic was national and not internet
1467
01:02:20,470 --> 01:02:27,100
and what we have seen also globally that
1468
01:02:24,070 --> 01:02:30,460
country we have competing for all kinds
1469
01:02:27,100 --> 01:02:33,550
of medical equipment even masks and so
1470
01:02:30,460 --> 01:02:35,290
on so this was the global attitude
1471
01:02:33,550 --> 01:02:40,660
because of the shortage of medical
1472
01:02:35,290 --> 01:02:43,990
supply and so on so it wasn't there was
1473
01:02:40,660 --> 01:02:45,910
little areas for for cooperation but
1474
01:02:43,990 --> 01:02:47,230
having said that I also gave a number of
1475
01:02:45,910 --> 01:02:51,910
examples where there was cooperation
1476
01:02:47,230 --> 01:02:53,910
including Gulf assistance to Iran
1477
01:02:51,910 --> 01:02:55,840
[Music]
1478
01:02:53,910 --> 01:02:58,600
israeli-palestinian cooperation and so
1479
01:02:55,840 --> 01:03:01,180
on so there were some bright spots but
1480
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:04,810
the problem is that these price bright
1481
01:03:01,180 --> 01:03:08,280
spots are not enough to make the
1482
01:03:04,810 --> 01:03:12,150
necessary requirement for a
1483
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:15,460
transformation for a new beginning for
1484
01:03:12,150 --> 01:03:17,890
you know I think Dalia was talking about
1485
01:03:15,460 --> 01:03:20,500
some of the for us of the positive
1486
01:03:17,890 --> 01:03:22,720
elements in relation to you know the
1487
01:03:20,500 --> 01:03:29,170
silver lining that we may see that may
1488
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:30,940
have a positive outcome and so on and I
1489
01:03:29,170 --> 01:03:34,120
agree with that but the government that
1490
01:03:30,940 --> 01:03:35,800
is this positive dimension in relation
1491
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:37,840
to the big picture that you referred to
1492
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:41,770
and I think the three of us refer to
1493
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:44,890
it's not a minimal so yes there has been
1494
01:03:41,770 --> 01:03:47,230
cooperation and I think cooperation
1495
01:03:44,890 --> 01:03:50,320
would probably increase as the severity
1496
01:03:47,230 --> 01:03:53,140
of the pandemic declines but but I don't
1497
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:56,890
think that we can we can be optimistic
1498
01:03:53,140 --> 01:03:58,870
and see you know light at the end of the
1499
01:03:56,890 --> 01:04:00,910
tunnel in relation to a number of
1500
01:03:58,870 --> 01:04:04,620
elements pertaining to the situation and
1501
01:04:00,910 --> 01:04:04,620
division as a result of dependent
1502
01:04:05,710 --> 01:04:11,740
how'd you tell her yeah not much to add
1503
01:04:09,070 --> 01:04:13,180
I agree I think that I also the two
1504
01:04:11,740 --> 01:04:14,800
examples I thought of were already
1505
01:04:13,180 --> 01:04:17,740
mentioned I think I even mentioned
1506
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:20,440
myself as well the UAE shipment to Iran
1507
01:04:17,740 --> 01:04:23,349
the the dialogue there that we have not
1508
01:04:20,440 --> 01:04:25,540
seen again I think most of this so far
1509
01:04:23,349 --> 01:04:27,369
is tactical not strategic and that's
1510
01:04:25,540 --> 01:04:29,619
what I think the Ambassador is referring
1511
01:04:27,369 --> 01:04:33,490
to it's just not clear this can lead to
1512
01:04:29,619 --> 01:04:36,250
a long-term shift the PA Israeli
1513
01:04:33,490 --> 01:04:38,800
cooperation was interesting just Israel
1514
01:04:36,250 --> 01:04:40,750
owned 200 million dollars to the PA to
1515
01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:44,380
make up for tax revenue it lost in the
1516
01:04:40,750 --> 01:04:48,359
virus all well and good your sinks you
1517
01:04:44,380 --> 01:04:51,099
know stories of Gaza garment makers
1518
01:04:48,359 --> 01:04:53,859
shipping masts and protective gear to
1519
01:04:51,099 --> 01:04:55,960
Israel instead of graffiti being
1520
01:04:53,859 --> 01:04:58,500
anti-israel on the walls you're seeing
1521
01:04:55,960 --> 01:05:01,210
you know Cove in 19 graffiti I mean
1522
01:04:58,500 --> 01:05:03,400
that's you know I guess progress the
1523
01:05:01,210 --> 01:05:04,810
problem is it only goes so far when
1524
01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:07,480
you're dealing with the specter of
1525
01:05:04,810 --> 01:05:09,580
Israel potentially indexing the West
1526
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:11,560
Bank nearly the entire West Bank in the
1527
01:05:09,580 --> 01:05:14,470
Jordan Valley which will completely
1528
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:16,599
demolish any potential openings that
1529
01:05:14,470 --> 01:05:18,130
might have existed so I think that's the
1530
01:05:16,599 --> 01:05:19,960
problem we're facing is that they're
1531
01:05:18,130 --> 01:05:21,670
interesting tactical shifts but we're
1532
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:23,800
not seeing a change in the strategic
1533
01:05:21,670 --> 01:05:26,440
directory one last point we didn't raise
1534
01:05:23,800 --> 01:05:28,330
that I would just bring in here is you
1535
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:29,830
know and this does take political will
1536
01:05:28,330 --> 01:05:32,500
not just from the region but from
1537
01:05:29,830 --> 01:05:33,940
outside working with the region and
1538
01:05:32,500 --> 01:05:36,640
probably won't be coming from the US
1539
01:05:33,940 --> 01:05:38,290
right now but but it could and and along
1540
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:40,660
with other international partners you're
1541
01:05:38,290 --> 01:05:43,060
seeing a lot more talk and insecurity
1542
01:05:40,660 --> 01:05:45,160
conferences and other venues of the need
1543
01:05:43,060 --> 01:05:46,900
to establish a regional dialogue
1544
01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:50,220
security dialogue and you know a
1545
01:05:46,900 --> 01:05:52,990
pandemic could make more clear that the
1546
01:05:50,220 --> 01:05:55,349
crises in the region cross geographic
1547
01:05:52,990 --> 01:05:59,830
boundaries nobody wins in a pandemic
1548
01:05:55,349 --> 01:06:01,990
nobody wins from maritime security being
1549
01:05:59,830 --> 01:06:04,780
undermine through constant rocket you
1550
01:06:01,990 --> 01:06:08,170
know attacks against tankers everybody
1551
01:06:04,780 --> 01:06:10,660
loses and so there is a need I've been
1552
01:06:08,170 --> 01:06:12,640
arguing this for many years of the
1553
01:06:10,660 --> 01:06:14,740
Egyptians actually and historically have
1554
01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:16,180
been in the forefront of efforts to be
1555
01:06:14,740 --> 01:06:19,430
interested in forging a regional
1556
01:06:16,180 --> 01:06:21,530
dialogue we need to figure out a model
1557
01:06:19,430 --> 01:06:24,230
it will take time but there needs to be
1558
01:06:21,530 --> 01:06:26,059
an investment in some kind of form for
1559
01:06:24,230 --> 01:06:27,740
all regional states and it needs to be
1560
01:06:26,059 --> 01:06:30,200
inclusive it can't just be a forum to
1561
01:06:27,740 --> 01:06:31,790
counter Iran or a forum to solve the
1562
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:32,809
israel-palestinian conflict that's how
1563
01:06:31,790 --> 01:06:34,849
they've been done in the past they
1564
01:06:32,809 --> 01:06:36,380
didn't work but we need some kind of
1565
01:06:34,849 --> 01:06:37,910
forum the Middle East is the least
1566
01:06:36,380 --> 01:06:39,500
institutionalized region of the world
1567
01:06:37,910 --> 01:06:42,230
it's the only region that doesn't have
1568
01:06:39,500 --> 01:06:44,450
some open dialogue of this nature it's
1569
01:06:42,230 --> 01:06:48,079
really time so I my hope is that this
1570
01:06:44,450 --> 01:06:49,819
can time it can be used as an opening to
1571
01:06:48,079 --> 01:06:52,490
hopefully increase the appetite for that
1572
01:06:49,819 --> 01:06:58,970
within the region we don't see it yet
1573
01:06:52,490 --> 01:07:03,980
but but maybe we'll get there let's talk
1574
01:06:58,970 --> 01:07:06,020
to everyone I think as my two colleagues
1575
01:07:03,980 --> 01:07:12,650
mentioned we did see some signs of
1576
01:07:06,020 --> 01:07:15,050
cooperation highlighting again that we
1577
01:07:12,650 --> 01:07:16,819
can that there's some areas Dahlia
1578
01:07:15,050 --> 01:07:22,130
mentioned that are easier to cooperate
1579
01:07:16,819 --> 01:07:24,440
rather than others in terms internally I
1580
01:07:22,130 --> 01:07:26,720
can say a few words about Israel the
1581
01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:29,750
healthcare field is one of the only
1582
01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:31,940
areas that are completely integrated in
1583
01:07:29,750 --> 01:07:35,140
Israeli society you know where schooling
1584
01:07:31,940 --> 01:07:37,849
is separate for example hospitals are
1585
01:07:35,140 --> 01:07:40,700
generally a completely joint and the
1586
01:07:37,849 --> 01:07:42,200
disproportionate number of Israeli Arabs
1587
01:07:40,700 --> 01:07:44,059
Israeli Palestinians working in that
1588
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:46,309
sector so I think in that respect he did
1589
01:07:44,059 --> 01:07:47,780
create an atmosphere of a goodwill and
1590
01:07:46,309 --> 01:07:50,180
acceptance again there's already a
1591
01:07:47,780 --> 01:07:54,829
trajectory in this direction when
1592
01:07:50,180 --> 01:07:57,380
Israeli Arabs are more integrated in
1593
01:07:54,829 --> 01:07:59,119
some of the public spheres for example
1594
01:07:57,380 --> 01:08:01,760
the chairman of Israel's second biggest
1595
01:07:59,119 --> 01:08:03,650
bank that was initially created by the
1596
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:06,020
Zionist movement and Chloe's now in
1597
01:08:03,650 --> 01:08:08,030
Israeli Palestinians we also saw
1598
01:08:06,020 --> 01:08:09,799
reaching across another divide the
1599
01:08:08,030 --> 01:08:10,970
internal Jewish divided between
1600
01:08:09,799 --> 01:08:14,359
ultra-orthodox
1601
01:08:10,970 --> 01:08:16,929
and secular named black heredity city
1602
01:08:14,359 --> 01:08:19,940
was the most severely hit in terms of
1603
01:08:16,929 --> 01:08:22,040
geography and the IDF took it over so
1604
01:08:19,940 --> 01:08:24,770
these are two populations that don't mix
1605
01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:27,319
as in order to don't serve and yet the
1606
01:08:24,770 --> 01:08:29,299
military is an institution it was able
1607
01:08:27,319 --> 01:08:31,850
to reach out there were openings for
1608
01:08:29,299 --> 01:08:33,109
gestures for Kasim I think a big
1609
01:08:31,850 --> 01:08:37,569
Palestinians
1610
01:08:33,109 --> 01:08:40,100
city they assisted Bnei Brak and so
1611
01:08:37,569 --> 01:08:42,230
these things again they take time and I
1612
01:08:40,100 --> 01:08:45,380
think these these gestures lists on the
1613
01:08:42,230 --> 01:08:47,659
internal arena do make a difference on
1614
01:08:45,380 --> 01:08:49,639
the long-term they do remind and excuse
1615
01:08:47,659 --> 01:08:53,150
me for being leave they do remind our
1616
01:08:49,639 --> 01:08:56,509
common humanity in these issues I think
1617
01:08:53,150 --> 01:08:58,250
it's not the last Raptor in the two big
1618
01:08:56,509 --> 01:09:00,139
developments that can change that and
1619
01:08:58,250 --> 01:09:02,270
that is the development of the vaccine
1620
01:09:00,139 --> 01:09:06,139
or some technological breakthrough that
1621
01:09:02,270 --> 01:09:07,969
make testing much easier so that depends
1622
01:09:06,139 --> 01:09:09,770
who would be the first one to do it but
1623
01:09:07,969 --> 01:09:11,750
there's a lot of efforts in Israel to
1624
01:09:09,770 --> 01:09:14,029
develop cheaper and quicker solutions
1625
01:09:11,750 --> 01:09:16,880
for that if this is somehow leveraged to
1626
01:09:14,029 --> 01:09:19,690
a broader outreach or perhaps a new
1627
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:22,250
American administration with the new a
1628
01:09:19,690 --> 01:09:24,830
polio type vaccine that is offered to
1629
01:09:22,250 --> 01:09:27,130
the world can change this green picture
1630
01:09:24,830 --> 01:09:32,060
and we are creating now very limited
1631
01:09:27,130 --> 01:09:34,819
cooperation let me ask one final
1632
01:09:32,060 --> 01:09:36,529
question for our panelists I think the
1633
01:09:34,819 --> 01:09:39,199
discussion has been excellent so far and
1634
01:09:36,529 --> 01:09:42,109
I want to try to link the the discussion
1635
01:09:39,199 --> 01:09:43,460
of the the need to rethink the economic
1636
01:09:42,109 --> 01:09:47,719
models in the region
1637
01:09:43,460 --> 01:09:49,489
coupled with you know that the ongoing
1638
01:09:47,719 --> 01:09:52,580
and I might being in temporarily
1639
01:09:49,489 --> 01:09:54,889
suspended social unrest you know we know
1640
01:09:52,580 --> 01:09:57,260
historically that in times of emergency
1641
01:09:54,889 --> 01:09:58,940
whether in the in the region or you know
1642
01:09:57,260 --> 01:10:02,510
even the United States when there's war
1643
01:09:58,940 --> 01:10:04,639
or emergency you know public contention
1644
01:10:02,510 --> 01:10:06,380
goes down many people expect it will
1645
01:10:04,639 --> 01:10:08,360
never pop up again but when the
1646
01:10:06,380 --> 01:10:10,520
emergency is ended
1647
01:10:08,360 --> 01:10:13,340
normalcy does not appear and said you
1648
01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:16,850
usually see a rise in claims on on
1649
01:10:13,340 --> 01:10:19,550
political elites new demands possibly
1650
01:10:16,850 --> 01:10:23,150
even new coalition's that were born
1651
01:10:19,550 --> 01:10:24,860
during the emergency period so it's
1652
01:10:23,150 --> 01:10:26,840
probably not a crazy idea to predict
1653
01:10:24,860 --> 01:10:28,369
that either through the introduction of
1654
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:31,159
new forms of treatment which at least
1655
01:10:28,369 --> 01:10:33,800
make it easier deal with the illness or
1656
01:10:31,159 --> 01:10:36,409
you know in this miracle vaccine that
1657
01:10:33,800 --> 01:10:40,480
whenever it comes that that when you
1658
01:10:36,409 --> 01:10:42,920
know the post normal phase is introduced
1659
01:10:40,480 --> 01:10:44,570
arise and different types of protests
1660
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:46,210
will occur making both old and new
1661
01:10:44,570 --> 01:10:47,950
demands how
1662
01:10:46,210 --> 01:10:51,460
that'd be however that might that
1663
01:10:47,950 --> 01:10:53,290
intersect with the need recognized both
1664
01:10:51,460 --> 01:10:55,840
by those in charge as well as many
1665
01:10:53,290 --> 01:10:57,010
others for a new economic model not one
1666
01:10:55,840 --> 01:10:59,830
for the region but country-specific
1667
01:10:57,010 --> 01:11:02,530
given the decline in commodity prices
1668
01:10:59,830 --> 01:11:04,210
the lack of investment from no West from
1669
01:11:02,530 --> 01:11:07,600
from Western investors and the
1670
01:11:04,210 --> 01:11:10,030
possibility but not promise of funds
1671
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:11,890
coming from the east to kind of
1672
01:11:10,030 --> 01:11:14,140
reintegrate some parts of the region
1673
01:11:11,890 --> 01:11:16,750
into the world economy is there a model
1674
01:11:14,140 --> 01:11:19,510
that can satisfied on everyone of course
1675
01:11:16,750 --> 01:11:21,610
but but that we can rethink the region
1676
01:11:19,510 --> 01:11:22,930
and the incorporation of so many
1677
01:11:21,610 --> 01:11:26,770
individuals who you know have been
1678
01:11:22,930 --> 01:11:28,300
demanding to be pulled into the social
1679
01:11:26,770 --> 01:11:30,190
and economic context over the last
1680
01:11:28,300 --> 01:11:32,110
decades or what and you know what is
1681
01:11:30,190 --> 01:11:34,390
individual countries how could they
1682
01:11:32,110 --> 01:11:37,360
think of reinserting themselves in the
1683
01:11:34,390 --> 01:11:42,060
world economy whether or not the
1684
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:42,060
geopolitics aside for the time being
1685
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:50,170
ambassador you so please well I think
1686
01:11:47,290 --> 01:11:53,200
this is a crucial issue because I think
1687
01:11:50,170 --> 01:11:57,160
the impact on the economies in division
1688
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:59,800
will be catastrophic and it applies
1689
01:11:57,160 --> 01:12:06,480
across the board even those who have
1690
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:09,190
huge investments and funds in the curve
1691
01:12:06,480 --> 01:12:11,620
suffering hugely from from what has
1692
01:12:09,190 --> 01:12:14,560
happened of course the declining the
1693
01:12:11,620 --> 01:12:16,240
price of oil has had a huge impact and I
1694
01:12:14,560 --> 01:12:19,990
just saw a report this morning that
1695
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:22,890
expects that 2.5 billion people will
1696
01:12:19,990 --> 01:12:27,970
will will have to leave the Gulf as a
1697
01:12:22,890 --> 01:12:31,750
result of kovat 90 so so this will
1698
01:12:27,970 --> 01:12:34,180
happen so the decline will happen at the
1699
01:12:31,750 --> 01:12:36,360
same time I think a number of countries
1700
01:12:34,180 --> 01:12:39,490
in the Gulf have been talking about
1701
01:12:36,360 --> 01:12:42,250
diversification of the economy for years
1702
01:12:39,490 --> 01:12:45,300
but they haven't been as serious about
1703
01:12:42,250 --> 01:12:47,770
it as they could so I think that this
1704
01:12:45,300 --> 01:12:52,150
what happened in the pandemic will
1705
01:12:47,770 --> 01:12:53,860
result in we thinking of the economies
1706
01:12:52,150 --> 01:12:58,030
in the Gulf in a much more fundamental
1707
01:12:53,860 --> 01:12:59,460
way because they also realized that all
1708
01:12:58,030 --> 01:13:01,410
these workers
1709
01:12:59,460 --> 01:13:03,870
just like they were helping in building
1710
01:13:01,410 --> 01:13:07,410
the economy they can become also a
1711
01:13:03,870 --> 01:13:11,340
source of danger as a result of the
1712
01:13:07,410 --> 01:13:13,080
virus so so this is part of it but then
1713
01:13:11,340 --> 01:13:15,270
there are a number of other countries in
1714
01:13:13,080 --> 01:13:17,580
that would be dealing with all kinds of
1715
01:13:15,270 --> 01:13:19,140
things we were discussing earlier the
1716
01:13:17,580 --> 01:13:21,600
price of oil for example and how this
1717
01:13:19,140 --> 01:13:24,030
would be a problem for the gun but this
1718
01:13:21,600 --> 01:13:26,280
is absolutely welcome to a country like
1719
01:13:24,030 --> 01:13:30,930
Jordan a country like Morocco
1720
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:33,180
that important of its own so this will
1721
01:13:30,930 --> 01:13:35,640
have a positive impact on their process
1722
01:13:33,180 --> 01:13:38,190
of the version but then we come to
1723
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:41,730
another dimension issues pertaining to
1724
01:13:38,190 --> 01:13:43,290
ok how long will it take to recover and
1725
01:13:41,730 --> 01:13:46,739
this is something that would be very
1726
01:13:43,290 --> 01:13:52,140
difficult to to to calculate all to
1727
01:13:46,739 --> 01:13:54,690
predict in major sectors so in a sector
1728
01:13:52,140 --> 01:13:58,050
like tourism for example when will will
1729
01:13:54,690 --> 01:14:00,440
Egypt Lebanon Tunisia Morocco be able to
1730
01:13:58,050 --> 01:14:04,170
recover some of of the tools and so on
1731
01:14:00,440 --> 01:14:06,989
no one knows if we have not clear on
1732
01:14:04,170 --> 01:14:10,320
when we will have planes flying in the
1733
01:14:06,989 --> 01:14:12,450
air in the next few months so and also
1734
01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:14,370
people will start thinking about tourism
1735
01:14:12,450 --> 01:14:16,469
in a totally different way they will
1736
01:14:14,370 --> 01:14:18,239
start thinking ok do I want to be held
1737
01:14:16,469 --> 01:14:21,330
in this place if there is a second wave
1738
01:14:18,239 --> 01:14:23,940
or a third wave and so on investments in
1739
01:14:21,330 --> 01:14:26,250
light of the current situation regarding
1740
01:14:23,940 --> 01:14:28,290
investments and people going to much
1741
01:14:26,250 --> 01:14:32,370
safer havens in relation to investment
1742
01:14:28,290 --> 01:14:35,130
and so on so countries may be forced to
1743
01:14:32,370 --> 01:14:37,500
rethink their strategy across the board
1744
01:14:35,130 --> 01:14:39,630
whether they are which country is poor
1745
01:14:37,500 --> 01:14:42,540
countries middle-income countries they
1746
01:14:39,630 --> 01:14:45,150
will have to do that the problem is that
1747
01:14:42,540 --> 01:14:48,030
the whole world is passing through this
1748
01:14:45,150 --> 01:14:51,690
crisis at the same time so when we had
1749
01:14:48,030 --> 01:14:53,610
the 2008-2009 financial crisis we still
1750
01:14:51,690 --> 01:14:56,310
had China and India that were able to
1751
01:14:53,610 --> 01:14:57,750
pull the world the global economy we
1752
01:14:56,310 --> 01:15:00,900
don't have anything like that this time
1753
01:14:57,750 --> 01:15:03,510
so now it is much more difficult and
1754
01:15:00,900 --> 01:15:06,060
countries will have to work on it very
1755
01:15:03,510 --> 01:15:09,600
hard otherwise there will be another
1756
01:15:06,060 --> 01:15:11,970
wave of revolutions revolts
1757
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:14,670
demonstrations you name it because
1758
01:15:11,970 --> 01:15:16,590
people will be suffering a lot and as a
1759
01:15:14,670 --> 01:15:20,970
result of poverty loss of employment and
1760
01:15:16,590 --> 01:15:24,240
so on dr. Jessica yeah I really can't
1761
01:15:20,970 --> 01:15:27,570
add more that was so thorough only to
1762
01:15:24,240 --> 01:15:31,350
say that I think we absolutely can and
1763
01:15:27,570 --> 01:15:33,060
should expect new waves the original
1764
01:15:31,350 --> 01:15:35,310
conditions that led to the protests
1765
01:15:33,060 --> 01:15:36,750
across the region and they do very I
1766
01:15:35,310 --> 01:15:39,180
think that's an important point
1767
01:15:36,750 --> 01:15:44,220
but the grievances are there are some
1768
01:15:39,180 --> 01:15:46,560
commonalities and I I think that now
1769
01:15:44,220 --> 01:15:49,010
there'll be you know the pandemic lays
1770
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:51,210
bare the real weaknesses of these
1771
01:15:49,010 --> 01:15:53,490
societies these governments and their
1772
01:15:51,210 --> 01:15:55,170
state capacities to handle people's
1773
01:15:53,490 --> 01:15:58,080
needs and really underscores the
1774
01:15:55,170 --> 01:16:01,890
inequities even in Gulf oil rich
1775
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:03,630
countries and and so I think but
1776
01:16:01,890 --> 01:16:05,730
certainly in countries like Egypt Jordan
1777
01:16:03,630 --> 01:16:08,310
Lebanon is is in particularly dire
1778
01:16:05,730 --> 01:16:11,100
condition so I think we can expect
1779
01:16:08,310 --> 01:16:13,320
protests and pressures the question is
1780
01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:15,000
what will the response be when we saw
1781
01:16:13,320 --> 01:16:17,190
the initial wave of protests and the
1782
01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:19,860
Arab uprisings you know there are two
1783
01:16:17,190 --> 01:16:22,080
tactics repression or co-option and in
1784
01:16:19,860 --> 01:16:23,700
the in the past the oil-rich stage could
1785
01:16:22,080 --> 01:16:26,550
co-op they could afford to co-op that
1786
01:16:23,700 --> 01:16:28,680
option is likely off the agenda now I
1787
01:16:26,550 --> 01:16:31,470
think the age of the renter state
1788
01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:33,030
indefinite age of the writ is done so is
1789
01:16:31,470 --> 01:16:37,520
it going to just be a playbook of
1790
01:16:33,030 --> 01:16:40,140
doubling down and repressive tactics and
1791
01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:42,780
squashing any opposition or is there
1792
01:16:40,140 --> 01:16:45,360
going to be openings or new contracts
1793
01:16:42,780 --> 01:16:47,280
with between state and society of maybe
1794
01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:49,560
you know you're willing to put up with a
1795
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:51,540
certain level of political repression if
1796
01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:53,790
you're opening up the societal space
1797
01:16:51,540 --> 01:16:57,030
that looks like what Saudi Arabia is
1798
01:16:53,790 --> 01:16:58,470
right now aiming for hard to know if
1799
01:16:57,030 --> 01:17:01,320
that's going to be a bargain that's
1800
01:16:58,470 --> 01:17:03,390
sustainable but it will mean that people
1801
01:17:01,320 --> 01:17:05,310
live very differently even in these
1802
01:17:03,390 --> 01:17:08,160
states that we're that were well
1803
01:17:05,310 --> 01:17:11,010
subsidized in the past those those cuts
1804
01:17:08,160 --> 01:17:12,900
will be there people will get taxed who
1805
01:17:11,010 --> 01:17:14,430
have not been taxed before they will not
1806
01:17:12,900 --> 01:17:17,700
be able to live the kinds of lives they
1807
01:17:14,430 --> 01:17:20,190
lived before the the oil money will not
1808
01:17:17,700 --> 01:17:23,070
be flowing to the rest of the region so
1809
01:17:20,190 --> 01:17:25,500
I think you know it's it's it's a very
1810
01:17:23,070 --> 01:17:26,790
very important question
1811
01:17:25,500 --> 01:17:29,550
but one of those that I think we're
1812
01:17:26,790 --> 01:17:30,990
going to have to watch for a while to
1813
01:17:29,550 --> 01:17:38,130
really understand how it's gonna play
1814
01:17:30,990 --> 01:17:39,870
out find a word for you yes thank you it
1815
01:17:38,130 --> 01:17:41,520
will be strange moment to try and get
1816
01:17:39,870 --> 01:17:44,190
him to integrate to the global economy
1817
01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:46,860
is we are witnessing a reversal of
1818
01:17:44,190 --> 01:17:50,520
globalization and perhaps going back to
1819
01:17:46,860 --> 01:17:52,740
States and economic models it will
1820
01:17:50,520 --> 01:17:57,510
create a think an opening for China to
1821
01:17:52,740 --> 01:17:59,610
invest in economically challenged areas
1822
01:17:57,510 --> 01:18:01,770
as we've seen their investments in
1823
01:17:59,610 --> 01:18:05,060
Africa which we lead to more discussions
1824
01:18:01,770 --> 01:18:06,870
about Chinese control of infrastructure
1825
01:18:05,060 --> 01:18:09,360
diversification is difficult because
1826
01:18:06,870 --> 01:18:11,820
part of it at least is Saudi Arabia
1827
01:18:09,360 --> 01:18:13,920
include required massive investments
1828
01:18:11,820 --> 01:18:18,510
like this new city near or moving to
1829
01:18:13,920 --> 01:18:21,620
high-tech and if the cost of oil is
1830
01:18:18,510 --> 01:18:25,170
dropping so much will be difficult for
1831
01:18:21,620 --> 01:18:27,150
NBS to try and pursue these initiatives
1832
01:18:25,170 --> 01:18:29,520
if I'm trying to think outside of the
1833
01:18:27,150 --> 01:18:31,230
box water the opportunity is healthcare
1834
01:18:29,520 --> 01:18:33,180
is going to be huge industry in the
1835
01:18:31,230 --> 01:18:35,280
wealthier parts of the world very
1836
01:18:33,180 --> 01:18:39,180
expensive in places like North America
1837
01:18:35,280 --> 01:18:41,190
and the ability to deliver telemedicine
1838
01:18:39,180 --> 01:18:43,550
will offer opportunities for countries
1839
01:18:41,190 --> 01:18:47,490
that have good training in the medical
1840
01:18:43,550 --> 01:18:49,730
sector to provide richer countries via
1841
01:18:47,490 --> 01:18:52,550
technology like the one we are using now
1842
01:18:49,730 --> 01:18:56,970
healthcare also requires a lot of
1843
01:18:52,550 --> 01:19:00,090
neighbors that have limited skills like
1844
01:18:56,970 --> 01:19:03,510
support staff and so on which may create
1845
01:19:00,090 --> 01:19:06,840
some demand when less skilled public but
1846
01:19:03,510 --> 01:19:08,400
I include for example some of the Middle
1847
01:19:06,840 --> 01:19:10,650
Eastern immigrants in Europe can find
1848
01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:14,010
themselves in sectors but that will
1849
01:19:10,650 --> 01:19:16,050
require innovation thinking outside of
1850
01:19:14,010 --> 01:19:19,140
the box reconnecting to some global
1851
01:19:16,050 --> 01:19:21,180
networks of healthcare and I think the
1852
01:19:19,140 --> 01:19:23,370
picture we described here is not very
1853
01:19:21,180 --> 01:19:28,620
promising about it but the opportunity I
1854
01:19:23,370 --> 01:19:30,780
think is there well thank you all and
1855
01:19:28,620 --> 01:19:33,210
you know if you've been watching I wanna
1856
01:19:30,780 --> 01:19:35,160
another you or not oh no our live
1857
01:19:33,210 --> 01:19:38,849
audience just our zoom alone was in the
1858
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:41,040
triple digits many more on YouTube so
1859
01:19:38,849 --> 01:19:42,599
arguably a more successful panel that
1860
01:19:41,040 --> 01:19:44,940
even could be held in person in some
1861
01:19:42,599 --> 01:19:46,290
place in some cases that you say on
1862
01:19:44,940 --> 01:19:49,170
behalf of the EU's alien International
1863
01:19:46,290 --> 01:19:51,480
Institute I'd like to thank everyone for
1864
01:19:49,170 --> 01:19:53,190
participating and watching and my thanks
1865
01:19:51,480 --> 01:19:56,310
to Doug Waxman for Co moderating this
1866
01:19:53,190 --> 01:19:59,070
panel and I hope that we're able to see
1867
01:19:56,310 --> 01:20:02,369
this conversation in this forum or other
1868
01:19:59,070 --> 01:20:05,130
far in the future because as as all of
1869
01:20:02,369 --> 01:20:07,050
us have have established this is the
1870
01:20:05,130 --> 01:20:08,909
beginning of this process and I think
1871
01:20:07,050 --> 01:20:10,409
keeping an eye on and keeping these
1872
01:20:08,909 --> 01:20:13,830
conversations going is very important
1873
01:20:10,409 --> 01:20:16,670
thanks so much and we appreciate you
1874
01:20:13,830 --> 01:20:16,670
watching and participating