Katherine Jones 0:01
Hello everyone and welcome to Student Voices: Is Democracy Falling in Eastern Europe. My name is Katherine Jones and I am the editor in chief of The Generation, UCLA's Foreign Affairs magazine. This past fall, the generation created a print edition centered around the rise of authoritarianism. We are so happy to be able to present the speaker series to supplement our print edition, along with the Burkle interns. This is going to be the first of three events in a series with information on the following two to come. Today's presentation is going to consist of a short presentation by our guest of honor Mark Temnycky. Thank you so much for coming Mark. Following that, Mark and I will have a short conversation about his presentation, and then the floor will be opened up for questions from the audience. If you have a question, please use the raise hand feature at the bottom of your Zoom screen. And I will call on people to ask their questions to mark during the question and answer portion. If you have any technical issues or questions at any time, you can directly message UCLA Burkle Center using the zoom chat function. Now for a few words about our speaker today, Mark Temnycky. Mark Temnycky is a non resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, and a freelance journalist who writes about Eastern Europe quite extensively. So now, ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, Mark Temnycky. Thank you.
Mark Temnycky 1:45
Thank you for that introduction. Thank you all for having me. It's a pleasure to speak with you this afternoon or evening. I am Mark Temnycky, a Ukrainian American who has been covering Eastern Europe for six years. I'm also a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center. I have prepared a very brief slide show about democracy in Eastern Europe, which I will now present. And following the little presentation, Katherine will ask me questions and then I'm happy to answer any questions you may have. So can you see this is the first question? Yes, we can no problem. Excellent. Great, thank you. So as some of you or all of you may know, after, and during the First World War, the Russian Empire collapsed, and it became what was then the Soviet Union. It was a collaboration of 15 different countries within eastern Europe, and Central Asia and the Caucasus. Our country existed from 1902 to 1991. And it comprised of different people. There were Slavs in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine. In Central Asia, there were various Turkic people, and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania had its own contingent population. Eventually, the Soviet Union would collapse due to financial problems as well as political unrest, which thankfully ended peacefully. But the transition of these 15 different countries has been very different from one. So when the Soviet Union collapsed, the West believe that these states would easily become integrated with Western thought and belief, pursuing economic opportunities as well as the potential of becoming part of Western institutions. But this was not the case. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania of the former 15 states to this day are the only three countries that belong to international organizations such as the European Union and NATO. The three of these countries joined in 2004. The remaining 13 former Soviet republic, sorry 12 Soviet Republics are in a various state of political situations. Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are the three clusters countries to pursue potential membership with the European Union and NATO, but they are still a long ways away. Fortunately, corruption goes hand in hand with authoritarianism and it is a big problem in this part of the world. Well, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania ranked highly on the Corruption Perceptions Index, where they are very democratic countries. The other 12 have been struggling and they receive poor remarks each year. Why is this the case? Some of these countries struggle financially, and they require humanitarian assistance from the West. As you can see, the United States and the European Union provide a very large amount of financial assistance, as well as humanitarian aid to these countries. For example, last year, the European Union provided over 1 billion euro and assistance, although this was all over the world. The European Union and the United States also work closely with many of these countries to implement anti corruption reforms. However, they have not always been well implemented. I thought it would be of interest to the students and other members, this is a graph from Wikipedia that shows the current president or prime minister or head of state of the former 15 Soviet republics. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as I mentioned, are the most democratic of these 15 states, where they frequently hold elections up to Western standards, and they are part of these western organizations. Other countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, have elections frequently and these leaders of these countries have become closer and establishing states with Western organizations. Unfortunately, in many of these other countries, you constantly have, quote unquote, democratic elections, but the same individual has been winning frequently. For example, Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko was first elected in Belarus as the president in 1994. He has then won the following five elections, and most importantly, the August 2020, elections were contested and not verified by many international and Western organizations and countries. You then, of course have, for example, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has previously served two terms as the President of Russia was the prime minister under then-president Medvedev and then Putin was once again reelected as president. Although it is important to note that when put in was re elected, they changed the Russian constitution to allow him to not only run again, but to run for a second consecutive term, and it is likely that Putin will remain the President of Russia until the 2030s. Several of these other leaders in the Central Asian states have also had similar regimes like President Lukashenko and President Putin where they have been in a very long time and the democratic process does not exist in these countries. Unfortunately, while some of these states are pursuing democracy in greater freedoms, as the graphic shows, President Putin is behaving like an octopus trying to spread his tentacles around the former Soviet and Russian sphere to meddle in the affairs, the affairs of his neighbors. This has led to unprovoked military incursions, occupying territory in these countries, launching cyber attacks and meddling in the elections in these countries. For example, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, a Russian occupying force remains in the Transnistria region in Moldova since the 1990s. In 2008, Georgia was invaded by the Russians where Abkhazia and South Ossetia now have Russian troops. As the ongoing Nagorno Karabakh conflict occurs between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Russians as of the fall of 2020, have sent a troop presence there. And in Ukraine, my ancestral homeland, the Russians invaded in 2014 into eastern Ukraine, and they illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula. And on Monday of this week, President Putin announced that the territories that the Russians are occupying Eastern Ukraine are independent states and if there is a potential that the conflict will become worse. But there is hope for this region. As I previously stated, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, have become Western countries. They belong to the European Union. They belong to NATO. They're involved in constant practices and democracy promotion. If Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are able to enhance their democratic processes interact more with the European Union and NATO, this would be seen as successful stories in this region, and it may encourage other peoples within this region to pursue democratic beliefs. That doesn't necessarily mean that they need to join Western organizations like the European Union and NATO. But if they have the opportunity to pursue democratic possibilities, this would in turn lead to better lives for these citizens. For example, the monthly average wage in Ukraine is around $450 US. The average monthly salary in the United States or the Eurozone is around $2,000. That is a significant difference. If countries such as Ukraine are able to pursue these economic reforms and other benefits that come from democracy, in turn, the citizens of these countries will be able to have better life. The recent protests in Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc, are caused by different means. But they had a common goal, which is the citizens in these countries just want to be left alone, they want to have decent lives, they want to be able to take care of themselves as well as their family members. But if democracy fails in this region, this was a very big concern. It will demonstrate that the West cannot hold Russia or other aggressive states accountable for their actions against their people. It could also lead to authoritarian states further meddling in the affairs of their neighbors without consequence, and it would render international law as meaningless. This is a very important problem that needs to be avoided. That concludes my brief slideshow presentation. And I am happy to answer your questions. Thank you.
Katherine Jones 11:55
Thank you so much for your presentation. Just to start out, you talked a lot about the Baltic states in your presentation. What would you say is the defining factor that allowed the Baltic states to progress and formed democracies, where some of the other Soviet states have struggled? Would you say they're being treated differently by Russia?
Mark Temnycky 12:15
So in the case of Estonia, for example, e-governance and information technology was a very large reason why they were able to pursue democracy and joining international organizations. This was because they were very transparent. The government being they was very transparent with how they were ruling in governing their people, how they were interacting with their citizens, everything was available online, easy to track, right. If things are posted online, it's there forever. In many of these other former Soviet states, they did not pursue such an option. I also believe that the citizens of the Baltics, ethnically, linguistically, religiously are very different than many, many of the other former Soviet states, which is one of the reasons I think, why they have been able to become part of the West more easily than, say, a country such as Belarus or Ukraine, that shares close historical as well as religious and linguistics ties to Russia. When President Putin, for example, talks about former Soviet states, you know, he's not going after the Estonians, Latvians Lithuanians. He always says that the Belarusian and the Ukrainian people are just made up ethnic communities that were caused by Lenin, which of course, is a fabrication. These people have lived in those areas for hundreds of 1000s of years.
Katherine Jones 13:47
Thank you so much. In a similar vein, would you say that the expansion that we're seeing right now in Ukraine is and overall the rise of authoritarianism across, you know, Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria and host countries in Eastern Europe will continue or do you think we're going to see somewhat of a lull after the conflict in Ukraine?
Mark Temnycky 14:12
I think it is certainly a possibility. And one of the reasons unfortunately is because of the Coronavirus pandemic, people have not been able to travel much they've been shut indoors, for the safety of everyone it's important to stress. And that has allowed authoritarian rulers to get away with more of their actions because you don't have people protesting for example, and people are concerned for their safety. Of course, with the current conflict in Ukraine and if there is an escalation in the conflict, it is possible that the citizens in these countries will realize okay, we see that Russia is an aggressive state, we want to pursue these democratic possibilities and we want to become part of Western thought so that we have have safety. One of President Volodymyr Zelensky is common arguments is if we were not part of NATO, this is what the Russians are doing. If we were part of NATO, we would be protected and the Russians would have never invaded. So you have, while they are not part of Eastern Europe, countries, such as Finland and Sweden, who are not part of NATO are now seriously considering joining the lights, this is a very big deal, because normally they've been independent from NATO. Now, though, they're traditionally Western countries anyway. But that line of thought could spread into other parts of the European continent.
Katherine Jones 15:41
Now, but from the perspective of NATO, will this kind of change the incentive structure and not wanting to actually expand further to the east or even into the kind of Baltic region. Surely NATO leaders would not admit this, but you know, is this going to change the future calculus of NATO expansion.
Mark Temnycky 16:04
So in 2004, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania became part of NATO. And it wasn't a problem. So, the argument, I believe, of NATO enlargement to other former Soviet states is invalid because again, the Baltic states joined. Most recently, you had former Soviet former Yugoslav republics of North Macedonia and Montenegro join, they traditionally are also seen as part of Russia's sphere of influence, given the close linguistic and ethnic ties to Russia and religious ties, because they're also Slavic peoples. And I believe that if citizens of a country want to pursue a membership of a Western organization, they should at least be given the opportunity to do so. NATO, of course has to vote together to admit a country. But that doesn't mean that they can't start pursuing options to become part of, of NATO, and a Membership Action Plan, for example, lists steps on democratic reform as well as defense reform, which is something that a country like Georgia and Ukraine currently need. So even if they are not admitted into NATO in the future, they will still be reforming their governments to Western standards.
Katherine Jones 17:19
That's great. Thank you so much. My next question is, in your presentation, you argue that the West needs to protect the fragile democracies of Eastern Europe and defend these kinds of international laws. How would you respond to those that say that Western intervention is a form of Neo imperialism and also interferes with these countries sovereignty?
Mark Temnycky 17:41
Well, I can't think of an example where NATO's invaded another country, whereas Russia has invaded several. So that is a very simple answer. On a larger scale, if Russia is able to meddle in the affairs of Ukraine, without much consequence, I know that the West, I think has done great in the last three days about immediate sanctions and responses, but they can always do more. If the Russians are able to illegally annex and occupy additional territory in Ukraine, and not much happens, a country such as China could pursue an aggressive action towards Taiwan, or North Korea could, again met on the affairs of South Korea. Those are some of the examples I'm familiar with. I know that there are others around the world. And I apologize that I don't know of those opportunities. But this is a very serious situation.
Katherine Jones 18:38
Of course, it's actually very interesting that you bring up those examples of China and South and North Korea, because I would have seen that what would this you know, conflict in Ukraine mean for China, the West has not spoken out. Arguably, many people say that the West has not spoken up about the conflicts with China taking over Hong Kong and with China and the Uyghurs. There hasn't been as much of a mobilized international response, as we're seeing, as is being talked about right now, with all the sanctions that may be put on Russia. Do you use this represent a double standard? Or do you think there's more logic behind this?
Mark Temnycky 19:15
I think that the West is currently preoccupied, because Russia is on their doorstep, and it could lead to a potential conflict on the European continent. Now, unfortunately, that bodes well in China's favor. The Chinese from what I'm, I'm aware, from what I've read, at least have been very, very quiet recently with Russia's antics in Ukraine. And that may be intentional. I know that our administration here in the United States has stated that it wants to pivot towards the Asia region, but Russia keeps pulling it in. And unfortunately, there are very numerous problems in the world. And by this constant Russian meddling, it's preventing our experts in looking into what's happening in other regions of the world. And it may allow China to interfere. Another serious concern is hypothetically, if a larger invasion happens in Ukraine with Russia, this could allow the Chinese to invade Taiwan, and then you have a two front conflict in the world. Of course, we would hope that it doesn't spiral out of control, and no one wants this to begin with. And by further stretching our resources, this will this could is very likely could lead to a global conflict, which is a very disturbing thought.
Katherine Jones 20:48
Yes, absolutely. Thank you. You mentioned in there about Biden's response and Biden having kind of a strong response. How do you evaluate how Biden has seemingly had a stronger response in the US, than the Europeans have to the conflict even though it's so much closer to the European soil?
Mark Temnycky 21:08
So President Biden has an advantage and that he has a united Congress that is for imposing sanctions on the Russian Federation. Whereas in the European Union, that's a combination of 27 different countries. All 27 Different countries have to unite on a single policy issue. And this drags out their decisions. You also have united and divided thoughts. On the division, for example, Prime Minister Orban of Hungary is starting to create a stronger relationship with President Putin and Russia. The Hungarians have constantly vetoed Ukraine's possibility to interact with NATO and EU possibilities, most recently with the cyber defense center. You also have some not in NATO, or in the EU, but a country like Serbia has a close relationship with Russia as well. And they're pursuing closer ties. And privately you have countries within Europe who are saying that the current sanctions in place in Russia since 2014, are hurting harming their economies, and they want sanctions to be lifted. Because if Russia is acting aggressively anyway, they argue that sanctions aren't the correct solution, because it's not resolving anything, and it's also harming their economies.
Katherine Jones 22:35
Yes, speaking of the economy, I wanted to talk for just one second about Nord Stream 2. And to what extent that you would attribute Western European hesitation, to Nord Stream 2 to. Of course, there's been some more developments on that just in the last few days. But, you know, kind of as we've seen this conflict developed, how big of a role do you think that's going to play?
Mark Temnycky 22:59
So Chancellor Schultz's decision yesterday, just proves that just because Nord Stream 2 is physically constructed, doesn't mean that it's inevitable. The Germans announced that they're going to be halting the certification of Nord Stream 2, for the time being, I think that they should even go further and saying that they are canceling the project altogether. But it's a dangerous situation, because Germany doesn't use nuclear energy. It's eliminating its coal usage, because it's bad for the environment. Unfortunately, with where society is today, alternative and clean energy sources are not up to par yet and takes time to develop like anything else. So the use of gas is just the default. And Germany pumps a lot of gas. There's around 80 million people who live in Germany, and they require a lot of energy. Something that Germany has also been concerned by is in previous years, countries such as Belarus and Ukraine have been in gas disputes with Russia. For those who are not aware, Russia pumps gas into the European continent, and about a third of the gas that Europe receives comes through Belarusian, Polish and Ukrainian pipelines. By having a direct route from Russia to Germany, you're bypassing that entire situation. But that also makes Germany and then Central Europe, more reliant on Russian gas and Russia has an energy monopoly over the state.
Katherine Jones 24:36
Okay, just to pivot a little bit. What do you think that the general perception is on the ground in Ukraine? Obviously, Russian propaganda is telling us that there's a lot of support for Russia. Western media is telling us there's none. You know, as a Ukrainian do you feel like you have some insight on this?
Mark Temnycky 24:55
Yes. So it's a sad situation, right. Since the conflict began eight years ago, over 14,000 people have been killed and almost 2 million people are internally displaced. So, on one hand, the Ukrainians are already familiar with this. This is nothing new. They've been invaded for eight years. Unfortunately, more and more people are dying. And on the other hand, if a second invasion does occur, the Zelenskyy and Biden administration's believe that this will lead up to a potential of 50,000 deaths or more on top of the 14,000, who have already perished from the conflict. And the RAND Corporation was saying that there's a possibility of three to 5 million people becoming refugees on top of the almost 2 million refugees. So if you do simple math, that's around a fifth of Ukraine's total population, who would be displaced and refugees.
Katherine Jones 25:57
Absolutely. Okay. I think we're going to get started with the questions from the audience now. I've already received one question. And here it is: do the breakaway regions Putin has named have a population that does want Russian rule, like even if the rebel forces are funded by Russia, they're actually made up of individuals that want to separate from Ukraine. That one is from Sasha Strauss.
Mark Temnycky 26:23
Sasha, thank you for your question. And the answer is yes. So there are some citizens within the region who are upset that the Soviet Union collapsed, they miss rulers such as Stalin, Lenin, etc, because that that is the Russia that they know a strong Russia strong ruler. And they, the citizens perhaps do not feel that they are part of the Ukrainian state. But it's also important to note that the Donbass regions of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast provinces make up around 4 million people. I don't think for all 4 million people believe that they all want to be part of Russia. And an important thing to note is it was Russian proxy forces back in April of 2014, who took over the government buildings in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Now, I'm sure that there are citizens within the region who lived there who believe in the cause. But there are plenty of others who either are very patriotic towards Ukraine, even though they're ethnically Russian, or Russian speaking peoples. And then I think the majority of citizens, they just want to be left alone. They were having a normal life and now a conflict has come. It's either killed their family members or friends, it's destroyed their homes and where they're able to be. And now they have a conflict like where some families are now divided. Some people are in the Ukrainian parts of the region and others are in the Russian part of the region. You can't visit them anymore, or when you do you have certain hours before possibly getting put in harm's way. It's very sad.
Katherine Jones 28:07
Ok. Simon Thorpe, it's your turn to ask a question.
Simon Thorpe 28:12
Thank you. So I hope you can hear me in a public space. But I was wondering, recently, I saw that Trump posted or he said an interview that Putin was a genius for what his moves on Ukraine essentially. And I know Tucker Carlson is a, he said on his talk show or on Fox News that, like Putin has never tried to get rid of my job or something like that. So what do you think is causing people on America's right, and I'd say some of the far left to, uh, to not want to support Ukraine and not really support like the the western ideals and narrative that we have been pushing, justifiably.
Mark Temnycky 28:55
Very dangerous question, Simon. Thank you. Yeah. I don't want to turn this into a political thing. I am very aware of what the right does and what they believe with President Putin. But I think it's also important to note that there are some Democratic members of Congress who said that the United States should not sanction these people, because it would harm Ukraine, which is also just very incorrect. I am not sure is the short answer. I know some of these individuals have had a America first view of the world where we should be focusing on what happens internally in the United States and not really be concerned or involve ourselves with international issues, which I think is one of the driving forces. Something I don't like but it's certainly a possibility as perhaps these people are on quote unquote, Russia's bankroll. I think that's very generous to the Russian people because I don't think that the Russian government is paying all these people to say these things, I think some of them actually believe this. Or they also realize that it stirs up views, and it makes them more attractive to, to watch on these programs. I think part of the incentive is to be in the spotlight. And unfortunately, by saying controversial things, that makes it more likely for someone to watch your clip or your show, etc, and then you just get greater viewership from there. Okay, but I, of course, I'm not in their head. So I don't know what they're thinking on both sides of our aisle to emphasize.
Katherine Jones 30:39
Okay, Kemal on your question.
Kemal Mohamedou 30:42
Thank you. So first and foremost, thank you for giving us your time today and sharing with us your interesting presentation and knowledge about these ongoing events. So my question is about authoritarianism. I was reading a few days ago, publication from the Atlantic titled, "Autocracy is Winning" or "The Bad Guys are Winning", I can remember the exact title, and it raised a number of very interesting questions, which I think can be applied to this ongoing situation. And my question essentially revolves about how autocrats have reached a sense of impunity, where they don't seem to care about sanctions or whether the West views their regime with quote, unquote, deep concern. And this is because of the fact that many of these autocratic countries are ruled by a small elite. And more often than not, the smaller leaves goals is the ruling elites goal sorry, is to just get more money and improve their personal power, etc, etc. And I wouldn't say that they're, you know, deeply concerned about the happiness of their citizens or all the other like democratic values that are upheld here in the West, I'd say. More importantly, because whatever money that they might lose due to sanctions will be made up for by other autocratic nations, such as Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, etc. And this was the case with, I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing his name, right, Lukashenko in Belarus when Putin stepped in to protect them after I believe it was last year's events. And I was wondering if you think that this might also be the case, with a power like with a great power like China, that might step in to protect Russia in this case, and sort of like make up for financially for all the sanctions that are being imposed on Russia, by the US, the UK, etc? So it's a bit of a long question
Mark Temnycky 32:32
Thank you Kemal. That's okay. So there is a common belief that President Putin is the most wealthiest person in the world, because of just how many shady and hidden hidden hidden money that he has. So I think one of the reasons he behaves the way that he does, is because money is no object to him, he can make any decisions, and he doesn't really face the ramifications. Up until recently, too many sanctions, I think, have harmed Russian citizens, rather than the intended parties of Russian banks, governments, politicians, etc. And by doing that, right, the average person is harmed, and Putin is running around doing whatever he wants to. I am less familiar with authoritarian rulers in other parts of the world and their other how they are bankrolled and how they make their decisions. But I think it's similar in that they just have so much power because of their authoritarian rule. How citizens are treated doesn't really pertain to them because they're in their quote, unquote, bubble, right, they're not being exposed to what the average citizen is dealing with. And as a result, they're more likely to interact with other authoritarian rulers because they feel that the West is going after them. They feel that they're being targeted. And they unfortunately, live in their own reality where they don't understand how all these other things are happening, which I know is a short answer to your question, but I'm happy to go further as you'd like. Okay, excellent
Katherine Jones 34:19
Okay. Alan Greenberg, please ask your question.
Alan Greenberg 34:26
Thank you. Your topic was theoretically, the falling democracy in Eastern Europe. And Anne Applebaum has written a new book, sequel to many others about the decline of democracy worldwide, particularly in Europe. And she doesn't limit it to Russia. She talks about Poland. She talks about Hungary. She talks about other countries in the former Soviet bloc. And then of course, there's the China's situation. What is why is there a trend away from democracy and towards more authoritarian government. Do people like Xi Jingping, etc, look at the United States and see our charade of governance, our problems with homelessness, our problems with education, our problems with infrastructure, and other people in this country. And those countries really got concerned that they may or may not be living in a democracy.
Mark Temnycky 35:30
So I think in these countries, there's a push of have dangerous nationalistic thought, which is in the citizens within the state and not allowing for discourse with with people who don't look like you or interact with you. It also gives the political powers in charge more power to oppress those who are the perhaps stateless, or those who don't have a voice. Now, unfortunately, there are problems all over the world, right? The United States has its own issues, but I don't think that necessarily means that because the United States has problems that these authoritarian rulers are then default by saying we want to pursue our line of work, because in their case, they have many problems to China, for example, has invaded in occupied many parts of the region, right there in Tibet. They're in Hong Kong. They want to invade Taiwan. They're building islands in the Southeast Asia sea to claim additional territory and the ocean so they can meddle in the affairs of countries over there. So I don't think that's necessarily a democracy is flawed problem.
Alan Greenberg 36:53
I'm not sure you answered my question. I mean, if you're a citizen in China, would you be that concerned that you didn't live in quote, unquote, a democracy? They look at this as a rising middle class, they don't see homelessness, they get public health, they don't see a government that's at odds with its own self. And you can make this and Anne Applebaum makes the same argument with Poland and Hungary. I mean, are the people in these authoritarian countries really that concerned that they don't live in a democracy? Are they worse off for?
Mark Temnycky 37:29
I think that they want to have average decent lives. And many of these citizens in those countries do not have that because they're being oppressed for their governments, they don't have freedom of speech, they don't have freedom of media, they don't have freedom of press, they don't have freedom that the internet, they don't have freedom of religion. Something that democracy promotes.
Katherine Jones 37:54
Okay, next question. We're gonna do one from the chat. So this is from Andreas Papoutsis. How would you evaluate the Ukrainian military's morale readiness and capability in fending off a full scale Russian invasion of the entire country? Is there a plausible scenario where the Ukrainian military is able to force the invading forces to incur losses to the point where they would consider retreating, if not out of Ukraine altogether? But at least back to the currently occupied territories?
Mark Temnycky 38:23
Thank you for that question. The Ukrainian military has been working frequently with Western advisors, as well as NATO to conduct exercises annually. And they have helped push significant defense reform to the point where many of Ukraine's military capabilities have become interoperable with the West, which is a very big deal. Of course, Ukraine is a smaller country than Russia. It's less wealthy than Russia. So Russia still has the upper hand. But the Ukrainians definitely have the capability to delay and stall a Russian second invasion. But I don't know, of course, how driven Putin is either with his objective. Unfortunately, he's in his mansion surrounded by guards and his oligarchs, he's not going to experience the conflict firsthand. So the additional loss of life and cost of the conflict will not be of concern to him. I think it's certainly possible that the Ukrainians could delay the Russian incursion, which would perhaps have the Russians stalled, but I don't think it would be a retreat. I think it really depends on how far Putin wants to launch this invasion. Unfortunately, he's the only person who knows that information.
Katherine Jones 39:49
Okay, Renata.
Renata Shammo 39:53
Thank you. Um, I just wanted to ask a question about what international actors like the US and NATO can do to limit Russian aggression in Ukraine. I know you've talked a little bit about sanctions. But do you think that's enough? And if not, what else can they do to prevent Russian aggression without escalating the conflict?
Mark Temnycky 40:15
Yes, so a few options. So first of all, having more severe sanctions, such as targeting Putin and his inner circle, many of these Russian leaders have summer homes or second homes in general, in Central and Western European countries. So one possibility the West could do is to cancel their visas to prevent them from traveling to these countries, seizing their properties and other dirty money assets that they control and own in these countries, which perhaps would make them think twice because they aren't able to visit their properties anymore. A second possibility would be to supply additional lethal aid to the Ukrainian military, which would then help bolster their capabilities. So in the possibility and of course, we do hope that this happens, but in the unfortunate event, if a second invasion does occur, the Ukrainians will be better prepared to fend off the Russians, which going back to the previous question, then could perhaps stall and prevent a further aggressive conflict. So those are two options. And then Nord Stream 2, the cancelling of that pipeline would ensure that Europe is not as dependent on Russian energy, if it's finally installed.
Katherine Jones 41:34
Okay, we're gonna ask one more question from the chat. Why do you think Putin picked this date and time to build to do this build up and possibly invade Ukraine?
Mark Temnycky 41:46
I think President Putin is he is very calculated in his thought and how he wants to act. And I think that this has been a decision he's been waiting to do for several years, I think he's been monitoring the international community in response, he sees that there is some fragmentation in Western thought, as I previously mentioned, there's 27 countries in the European Union, simple math, if you add the United States, Canada, Australia, and the NATO countries, that puts you to about 40 different countries, who all have to coordinate with one another on sanctions and how they're going to come back with Russia, or President Putin has an advantage that his Duma and his inner circle do exactly what he says he is the end all be all figure there. So he's able to pursue the options. I think also a reason was to see how the West is recovering from the pandemic, many countries have lost a significant portion of their GDP and millions of Europeans are jobless. And unfortunately, there is a trend with President Putin and international sporting situations where he likes to meddle in the affairs when these international competitions are occurring, because people are distracted. So that could have a possibility to I know, he has a stronger relationship with the presidency. So it's possible that he didn't want to do it during the Olympics to upset China. So he did it the day afterwards.
Katherine Jones 43:24
That's very interesting answer. Arya, your question, please.
Arya Goyal 43:30
Hi, thank you so much for coming here today. I think my question is revolving around the demands that Putin had to the US about Ukraine, and particularly the fact that he basically said that if for us not to invade Ukraine, you would have to like you would like, make sure that Ukraine does not join the NATO or like, the other Soviet nations are already part should not after 1987, I believe, should not be allowed to keep the troops and a lot of outlandish demands that I believe it was obvious that the US, I mean the West would reject. So I was just wondering, did you think the demands were sort of pretext by Russia to basically like the need, knowing that they would be rejected, they'd have a reason to invade Ukraine, and they would not be perceived as badly as they would be otherwise if just, you know, attacking Ukraine?
Mark Temnycky 44:19
I think, unfortunately, yes. By the Russians saying here are our demands, which of course were outlandish to begin with, and by the West, saying we will not accept these, the Russians then get to say, Well, we tried to negotiate with the Westerners and they blew us off, which is very dangerous. What I don't understand is everybody knows that this is the situation and yet it keeps happening. And I don't know how you try to resolve a situation like that. That's above my head, unfortunately. But, but I think I think your question and analysis is correct, yes.
Katherine Jones 45:03
Adam Nagorny, your question.
Attendee 45:07
All right, well, I just want to say thank you so much for the presentation. And thank you so much for the moderation, Katherine. My question actually goes a little bit back into the history when it comes to the fall of the USSR. And you mentioned that the beginning of the presentation. In your opinion, and maybe you don't know as much about this specifically. But one of the issues is that may the countries that fell from the USSR didn't really rush into the democratic values into the democracies that we kind of expected it would. And in your opinion, do you think maybe that the US and the European, rest of the world, maybe should have done more to sort of nudge these countries into democracies? Do you think they didn't do enough or just kind of your opinion on this sort of topic?
Mark Temnycky 45:54
I think a was contingent upon what these countries wanted to do. So Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have always said that they've been occupied by the Soviet Union, which is very unique, different view of history than what the former other Soviet states say. So I think that they've always wanted to pursue Western integration. And one of the things that they realized is by joining an organization such as NATO, while also being right on Russia's neighbor, neighboring states, they would be protected by these international organizations. In a country such as Ukraine, for example, or Belarus, they for several years, have always had a interesting relationship with their neighbor, to the point where they, because based on geography, they trade significantly with Russia, they rely on Russian gas, they have a history, a similar history, and culture and religion, etc. So, in my ancestral homeland, for example, I know that Ukraine has always tried to be an independent country, such as Switzerland, trying to see how they can both get the benefits of interacting and trading with the West while also maintaining good relationship with Russia. But then they were invaded by Russia. So that has had a huge change in in thought, and Ukrainian public opinion on joining Western organizations. And I think perhaps this will lead to additional changes of thought in other former Soviet states, because Georgia had a similar experience. As for how well the West did, you know, there's only so much that foreign actors can do before the people and citizens within their own country behave. I previously worked for the Committee on Foreign Affairs in Ukraine Parliament, and that's an observation I have had, which is, despite all the humanitarian aid or advisers, or anything that you can do for these countries, at the end of the day, the citizens live there, it's their decision to make the future of their their country. We may not agree with the way that they pursued these options. But I think the West has done what it can and it's always easy to criticize to right off back then if we had done XYZ, etc. You know, who knew when the Soviet Union collapsed 30 years ago that we would be in this situation. Okay, anyone who says otherwise is making things up? No one knew this is gonna happen.
Katherine Jones 48:46
Okay, Simon, your question.
Simon Thorpe 48:49
Hi. So, Hello, again. My question is a little less on the nose this time. I'd like to know about Serbia. So I saw on the news that Serbia yesterday, the President or the leader, Serbia said that he would denounce Russia as well, if Ukraine apologized or if Ukraine denounced the Ukrainian bombings in Serbia. So has Serbia always been a country that kind of in between the West and the East and politically, and they're never really took aside. What do you think their place is in the current Ukrainian conflict? And if you if you have any thoughts on that.
Mark Temnycky 49:24
They traditionally, they being the Serbs, traditionally support Russian line of thought, because they are surrounded by several states that belong to European institutions or attempting to be part of European institutions, predominantly Croatia and then you have North Macedonia and Montenegro, Bosnia is pursuing EU and NATO membership as well. So I think, and then, oh, I'm sorry, and then you have Albania as part of NATO and then Kosovo, there's a serious possibility that they may be involved, the Kosovars. So Serbia, I think, has a distorted worldview similar to Russia, it's actually very fascinating if you ever have time, the story of Eastern Europe and the story of the Balkans are very similar, because you have a larger, aggressive country, interacting with its smaller neighbors states. And I think that's similar, where Serbia perhaps believes that it's being engulfed by these different organizations, which by the way, they're also allowed to join. And instead they're pursuing aggressive antics towards their states. Perfect example, during the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s. They were unfortunately slaughtering their neighbors, ethnic cleansing, and then NATO, of course, got involved in similar conflicts.
Katherine Jones 50:51
Okay, we're going to ask one more question from the chat. If the conflict continues on its current trajectory, do you believe the West will solely impose sanctions? Or will we reach the point that we have troops on the ground? Do you foresee the West continuing to stay united or diverging?
Mark Temnycky 51:09
So something Western leaders, including our President, I've constantly said, as they are not sending soldiers to Ukraine, at least at this given moment in time they are they're sending troops to bolster NATO capabilities. No one wants a global conflict. No one wants a war because that results in the deaths of 1000s, if not millions, of people, and that's human life, loss of life is obvious. But you can't get those people back who perish. Unfortunately, it's a very serious situation. I think, for now, sanctions are the most direct way to respond to Russian aggression and being calculated. So like we discussed earlier, rather than just targeting certain politicians, etc, go after Putin's inner circle. That's something that Britain did yesterday, Britain also sanction five major banks in the United States also sanctions to major banks if I'm not mistaken. And and they said that this is only the beginning, if Russia continues, they have a further set of sanctions. At one point, SWIFT, the international monetary system was discussed. For those who aren't aware every single country, I believe in the world uses that for global transactions and banking, and a few eliminate Russia's capabilities to interact on that program. They're very hard economically, and they wouldn't be able to sustain themselves, I believe. So by implementing these sorts of sanctions, I would hope that this would revert the Russian leadership's decision to continue the options that they're doing. Of course, there's always the fear that the more you implement the sanctions, the more the Russians will justify to themselves, why they're pursuing their thing. And just an important point, this is the Russian government, right? The Russian people, also, while maybe not necessarily becoming a true democracy, or joining Western organizations, they also want to be left alone. And unfortunately, they have an authoritarian ruler, who has decided that it's his responsibility to unite former parts of the Russian Empire.
Katherine Jones 53:23
Kemal, your question.
Kemal Mohamedou 53:27
Thank you.
Mark Temnycky 53:29
hello again.
Kemal Mohamedou 53:30
Hi, again. Across the past decade, or even decade and a half, I'd say, you've seen a sort of growing influence of PS MCs, private security military contractors, contract group, sorry. And, you know, you've seen this in Iraq with the with the case of Blackwater, and Eric Prince, and across the past two years, so we've seen the growing influence of this particular group, particular Russian group called the Wagner Group, which has been quite active. And it's been quite active really, particularly recently in African countries like the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, and I was reading recently that they got pulled out of Mali to come back to Eastern Europe to help with this ongoing crisis, obviously, with Russia and Ukraine, and I was wondering what you thought might be the effects of the increasing and growing growing influence of private security, military contractor groups in major geopolitical issues.
Mark Temnycky 54:39
So I will say that, that is a little out of my expertise. So what I'm how I'm going to answer is an assumption. I don't know if this is correct. So for the record, if you are a military contractor, you are being hired by the state but you don't belong to the Armed Forces of that country. So these people could go in and and interact on foreign soils. But when they're going after the Ukrainian military in this example, for instance, they wouldn't be wearing Russian insignia. And that's dangerous, right? That goes back to the Russia's Little Green Men situation where they took over Crimea, no one knew, supposedly who they belong to, even though they all coincidentally just happened to speak Russian. But I think on a more serious matter, by sending these mercenaries to be involved in conflicts, the Russians can easily say, well, these were armed contractors. These were not Russian soldiers. And it's a way to deflect the situation again, everyone knows what's happening. Putin knows what he's saying. They're doing it anyway. And it's how do you combat these decisions? I'm not sure I'm not a military expert. So I don't know how to comment further on those short assumptions.
Katherine Jones 56:05
Okay, Manon your question.
Attendee 56:08
So thank you for the very interesting talk. And so this question is not about Ukraine, it's about Bulgaria. But it's a more general question about humanitarian aid. So I don't fully know the context for this, but I know that in Bulgaria, there is rising autocratization. and the EU gave some big checks to the Bulgarian government under the, not the guise, that is their rhetoric, but to help the residents in Bulgaria, because it is they do have a lot of deteriorated conditions for buildings. I think that was the premise. But the moral of story is, I guess it was supposed to be aid. And then some people were criticizing it saying that it doesn't help the residents because the government mismanaged the funds. So as far as mismanaged because the authoritarian governments mismanage funds very often or manipulate them. I guess it's not specifically Ukraine, because it's different. But how in general, do you think that help affects the situation?
Mark Temnycky 57:17
Now, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm going to answer how I think I understood what you asked. With some of this humanitarian aid, unfortunately, the political leaders pocket what was being sent rather than reforming the country with no infrastructure or government, etc, which in turn right, makes the political leaders wealthier, and gives them more power. This is something that the international community is monitoring and I know that the International Monetary Fund The IMF is cognizant of situations like this. And as a result, when the IMF sends loans to countries who are in need of economic assistance, they say that they need to fulfill a certain set of democratic requirements as well as other reforms before they, I believe the term is activate the loan. And it gets sent over. So I think that's one way to prevent mismanagement of funds. Because if the government is pocketing the money that's supposed to be used for reforming the country, and instead it's going in the pockets of these wealthy individuals, they'll just stop sending the aid.
Attendee 58:32
Okay, thank you. I know that was convoluted
Mark Temnycky 58:34
no, no, that's okay. I'm happy. I understood you correctly. Thank you.
Katherine Jones 58:39
Okay, well, I know that there might are a lot of interesting questions left to be asked. But unfortunately, that is our time. So thank you so much, Mr. Temnycky, for coming and speaking to us today. You've had some very interesting insights to share and thank you to everyone who attended. I hope to see you all at the next two events in our authoritarianism speaker series. Thank you and have a great night everybody.
Mark Temnycky 59:04
Thank you again for the invitation. It was a pleasure speaking with you and I hope you learned something new.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai