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WEBINAR: The Hamas Attack and Its Impact on the Region, Discussion 1

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The CMED Roundtable Series will gather experts weekly to assess the Hamas attack and its impact on the region to make recommendations for the future. In Discussion 1, CMED Director Professor Steven Spiegel meets with Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Robin Wright, senior fellow at the US Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center. Discussion followed by audience Q&A.


The UCLA Center for Middle East Development hosted the event, "The Hamas Attack and Its Impact on the Region, Discussion 1," on October 26, 2023.

The CMED Roundtable Series will gather experts weekly to assess the Hamas attack and its impact on the region to make recommendations for the future. In Discussion 1, CMED Director Professor Steven Spiegel meets with Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Robin Wright, senior fellow at the US Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center. Discussion followed by audience Q&A.

MEET OUR GUESTS

Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on US foreign policy. He has written five books, including his most recent, “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President” (Palgrave, 2014) and “The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace” (Bantam, 2008). Between 1978 and 2003, Miller served at the State Department as a historian, analyst, negotiator, and advisor to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state, where he helped formulate US policy on the Middle East and the Arab-Israel peace process, most recently as the Senior Advisor for Arab-Israeli Negotiations. He also served as the Deputy Special Middle East Coordinator for Arab-Israeli Negotiations, senior member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and in the Office of the Historian. He has received the Department’s Distinguished, Superior, and Meritorious Honor Awards. From 2006 to 2019, Miller was a public policy scholar, vice president for new initiatives, and director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Miller is also a global affairs analyst for CNN. His articles have appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, Foreign Policy, USA Today, and CNN.com. He is a frequent commentator on NPR, BBC, and Sirius XM Radio. 

 

Robin Wright is a senior fellow at the US Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center. She has reported from more than 140 countries for The New Yorker, The Washington Post, TIME, The New York Times Magazine, and the Los Angeles Times, among others. Wright has also been a fellow at the Brookings Institution, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Yale, Duke, Stanford, Dartmouth, and the University of California. She has received numerous awards for her work, including the UN Correspondents Association Gold Medal for international affairs and the National Magazine Award for Iran reportage, and the Overseas Press Club Award for her coverage of African wars. Wright has authored eight books.

 

MEET OUR HOST

Dr. Steven Spiegel is Director of the UCLA Center for Middle East Development. He is also a research professor of political science, focusing on international relations and American foreign policy in the Middle East. He has written over 100 books, articles, and papers. He is the author of “The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict: Making America’s Middle East Policy from Truman to Reagan,” and “World Politics in a New Era,” as well as one of the authors of "The Peace Puzzle: America’s Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace, 1989-2011.”

 

 

 NEXT IN THE SERIES

In Discussion 2, CMED Deputy Director Mani Jad meets with Mohammed Daraghmeh, bureau chief of Asharq News in Palestine, and Smadar Perry, Middle East senior editor at Yediot Aharonot in Israel. Discussion will be followed by audience Q&A. 

In Discussion 3, CMED Distinguished Senior Fellow Steve Zipperstein meets with Dr. Hiba Husseini, managing partner at Husseini and Husseini Law in Palestine, and General (R.) Dr. Ephraim Sneh, former Israeli Minister. Discussion will be followed by audience Q&A.



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Duration: 01:10:13

The-Hamas-Attack-and-Its-Impact-on-the-Region—-CMED-Roundtable-Series,-Discussion-1-t2-qt2.m4a


Transcript:

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hello<00:00:00.240> to<00:00:00.440> everyone<00:00:01.240> from<00:00:01.520> around<00:00:01.839> the<00:00:02.040> world

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hello to everyone from around the world

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hello to everyone from around the world

and<00:00:03.399> thank<00:00:03.600> you<00:00:03.919> for<00:00:04.359> joining<00:00:04.799> us<00:00:05.640> uh<00:00:05.759> today

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and thank you for joining us uh today

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and thank you for joining us uh today

this<00:00:06.319> is<00:00:06.480> the<00:00:06.640> first<00:00:06.919> of<00:00:07.120> a<00:00:07.720> series<00:00:08.599> that<00:00:08.840> we

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this is the first of a series that we

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this is the first of a series that we

have<00:00:10.040> at<00:00:10.240> CED<00:00:11.040> entitled<00:00:12.040> the

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have at CED entitled the

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have at CED entitled the

Hamas<00:00:14.320> uh<00:00:15.240> attack<00:00:15.679> and<00:00:15.839> its<00:00:16.199> impact<00:00:17.119> on<00:00:17.720> uh<00:00:17.840> the

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Hamas uh attack and its impact on uh the

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Hamas uh attack and its impact on uh the

region<00:00:19.400> uh<00:00:19.680> before<00:00:19.960> we<00:00:20.160> begin<00:00:20.920> uh<00:00:21.080> I'd<00:00:21.240> like<00:00:21.439> to

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region uh before we begin uh I'd like to

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region uh before we begin uh I'd like to

take<00:00:21.960> a<00:00:22.119> moment<00:00:22.359> to<00:00:22.519> thank<00:00:22.760> the<00:00:22.840> UCL

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take a moment to thank the UCL

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take a moment to thank the UCL

Department<00:00:23.640> of<00:00:23.720> political<00:00:24.160> science<00:00:24.599> for

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Department of political science for

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Department of political science for

co-sponsoring<00:00:25.599> our<00:00:25.800> discussion<00:00:26.199> today<00:00:26.560> as

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co-sponsoring our discussion today as

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co-sponsoring our discussion today as

well<00:00:26.880> as<00:00:27.080> the<00:00:27.519> UCI<00:00:28.160> International<00:00:28.800> Institute

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well as the UCI International Institute

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well as the UCI International Institute

for<00:00:29.439> helping<00:00:29.679> to<00:00:30.000> promote<00:00:30.320> the<00:00:31.119> this<00:00:31.359> vital

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for helping to promote the this vital

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for helping to promote the this vital

Round<00:00:32.640> Round<00:00:33.000> Table<00:00:33.440> series<00:00:34.280> before<00:00:34.559> the

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Round Round Table series before the

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Round Round Table series before the

event<00:00:35.000> begins<00:00:35.440> please<00:00:35.719> note<00:00:36.440> the<00:00:36.600> following

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event begins please note the following

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event begins please note the following

important<00:00:37.840> information<00:00:38.840> what<00:00:39.239> uh<00:00:39.480> which<00:00:39.640> I

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important information what uh which I

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important information what uh which I

will<00:00:40.000> go<00:00:40.559> uh<00:00:40.920> quickly<00:00:41.480> uh<00:00:41.920> on<00:00:42.600> so<00:00:42.840> we<00:00:42.960> can<00:00:43.120> start

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will go uh quickly uh on so we can start

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will go uh quickly uh on so we can start

number<00:00:44.239> one<00:00:44.680> while<00:00:44.920> you<00:00:45.039> can<00:00:45.160> see<00:00:45.360> us<00:00:45.559> we

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number one while you can see us we

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number one while you can see us we

cannot<00:00:46.120> see<00:00:46.399> or<00:00:46.640> hear<00:00:46.920> you<00:00:47.239> you<00:00:47.360> should<00:00:47.559> know

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cannot see or hear you you should know

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cannot see or hear you you should know

that<00:00:47.960> we<00:00:48.079> are<00:00:48.280> recording<00:00:48.680> the<00:00:48.879> presentation

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that we are recording the presentation

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that we are recording the presentation

today<00:00:50.160> and<00:00:50.320> the<00:00:50.480> video<00:00:50.800> will<00:00:50.960> be<00:00:51.160> available<00:00:51.600> on

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today and the video will be available on

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today and the video will be available on

the<00:00:51.800> seid<00:00:52.320> website<00:00:52.760> YouTube<00:00:53.199> and<00:00:53.359> our<00:00:54.320> uh

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the seid website YouTube and our uh

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the seid website YouTube and our uh

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Facebook page soon after the event if

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Facebook page soon after the event if

you<00:00:57.280> are<00:00:57.520> joining<00:00:58.000> us<00:00:58.680> using<00:00:59.039> Zoom<00:00:59.920> Zoom

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you are joining us using Zoom Zoom

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you are joining us using Zoom Zoom

please<00:01:00.680> note<00:01:01.680> the<00:01:02.320> chat<00:01:02.760> window<00:01:03.160> at<00:01:03.320> the

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please note the chat window at the

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please note the chat window at the

bottom<00:01:03.760> of<00:01:03.879> the<00:01:04.040> screen<00:01:04.839> we<00:01:05.000> will<00:01:05.159> share

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bottom of the screen we will share

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bottom of the screen we will share

announcements<00:01:06.000> during<00:01:06.280> the<00:01:06.439> talk<00:01:06.760> with<00:01:06.920> you

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announcements during the talk with you

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announcements during the talk with you

here<00:01:08.200> however<00:01:08.960> you<00:01:09.159> will<00:01:10.000> not<00:01:11.000> be<00:01:11.200> able<00:01:11.479> to<00:01:11.680> add

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here however you will not be able to add

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here however you will not be able to add

comments<00:01:12.960> in<00:01:13.119> the<00:01:13.320> chat<00:01:13.640> box<00:01:14.439> if<00:01:14.560> you<00:01:14.680> have

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comments in the chat box if you have

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comments in the chat box if you have

questions<00:01:15.240> for<00:01:15.439> our<00:01:15.759> speakers<00:01:16.759> please<00:01:17.479> uh

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questions for our speakers please uh

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questions for our speakers please uh

type<00:01:17.960> them<00:01:18.200> in<00:01:18.400> the<00:01:18.600> Q&A<00:01:19.360> window<00:01:19.920> also<00:01:20.240> at<00:01:20.360> the

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type them in the Q&A window also at the

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type them in the Q&A window also at the

bottom<00:01:20.840> of<00:01:20.960> your<00:01:21.159> screen<00:01:21.840> you<00:01:21.960> can<00:01:22.200> ask<00:01:22.560> one<00:01:23.119> or

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bottom of your screen you can ask one or

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bottom of your screen you can ask one or

both<00:01:23.920> of<00:01:24.079> our<00:01:24.520> speakers<00:01:25.040> be<00:01:25.159> sure<00:01:25.400> to<00:01:25.600> include

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both of our speakers be sure to include

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both of our speakers be sure to include

your<00:01:26.159> name<00:01:26.400> in<00:01:26.560> your<00:01:26.799> country<00:01:27.520> and<00:01:27.759> or

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your name in your country and or

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your name in your country and or

affiliation<00:01:29.240> that<00:01:29.400> is<00:01:29.920> critical<00:01:30.479> to<00:01:30.680> include

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affiliation that is critical to include

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affiliation that is critical to include

your<00:01:31.200> name<00:01:31.520> and<00:01:31.720> your<00:01:32.000> country<00:01:32.759> and<00:01:33.000> your

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your name and your country and your

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your name and your country and your

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affiliation and note that your name

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affiliation and note that your name

country<00:01:35.520> and<00:01:35.680> or<00:01:35.840> affiliation<00:01:36.399> will<00:01:36.560> be

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country and or affiliation will be

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country and or affiliation will be

announced<00:01:37.159> aloud<00:01:38.040> along<00:01:38.439> with<00:01:38.640> your<00:01:39.119> question

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announced aloud along with your question

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announced aloud along with your question

only<00:01:40.360> the<00:01:40.520> cat<00:01:41.000> team<00:01:41.240> will<00:01:41.399> be<00:01:41.560> able<00:01:41.720> to<00:01:41.840> see

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only the cat team will be able to see

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only the cat team will be able to see

your<00:01:42.280> questions<00:01:42.720> in<00:01:42.840> some<00:01:43.079> cases<00:01:43.640> we<00:01:43.759> will

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your questions in some cases we will

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your questions in some cases we will

answer<00:01:44.280> questions<00:01:44.600> and<00:01:44.840> writing<00:01:45.479> in<00:01:45.640> the<00:01:45.880> Q&A

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answer questions and writing in the Q&A

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answer questions and writing in the Q&A

window<00:01:46.600> for<00:01:46.799> others<00:01:47.079> to<00:01:47.360> see<00:01:48.360> please<00:01:49.079> keep

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window for others to see please keep

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window for others to see please keep

your<00:01:50.040> questions<00:01:50.640> concise<00:01:51.159> so<00:01:51.360> we<00:01:51.479> can<00:01:51.719> answer

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your questions concise so we can answer

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your questions concise so we can answer

as<00:01:52.280> many<00:01:52.520> questions<00:01:52.920> as<00:01:53.360> possible<00:01:54.360> and<00:01:54.560> if

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as many questions as possible and if

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as many questions as possible and if

you're<00:01:55.000> joining<00:01:55.360> us<00:01:55.640> on<00:01:55.799> the<00:01:56.000> YouTube

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you're joining us on the YouTube

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you're joining us on the YouTube

platform<00:01:57.039> please<00:01:57.240> note<00:01:57.479> that<00:01:57.600> we<00:01:57.719> will<00:01:57.920> not<00:01:58.159> be

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platform please note that we will not be

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platform please note that we will not be

replying<00:01:59.079> to<00:01:59.240> any<00:01:59.439> comment<00:01:59.799> answer<00:02:00.560> questions

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replying to any comment answer questions

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replying to any comment answer questions

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uh there I uh want to begin by

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uh there I uh want to begin by

introducing<00:02:07.520> uh<00:02:07.880> two<00:02:08.560> two<00:02:09.360> speakers<00:02:10.360> both<00:02:10.560> of

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introducing uh two two speakers both of

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introducing uh two two speakers both of

whom<00:02:11.760> uh<00:02:12.520> I<00:02:12.720> just<00:02:13.360> think<00:02:13.640> are<00:02:14.280> fantastic<00:02:15.280> and

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whom uh I just think are fantastic and

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whom uh I just think are fantastic and

they<00:02:15.599> are<00:02:15.879> two<00:02:16.400> of<00:02:17.120> the<00:02:17.480> most<00:02:17.920> important

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they are two of the most important

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they are two of the most important

people<00:02:19.280> at<00:02:19.480> the<00:02:19.640> kind<00:02:19.760> of<00:02:19.959> Crisis<00:02:20.599> we<00:02:20.720> are

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people at the kind of Crisis we are

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people at the kind of Crisis we are

having<00:02:21.239> now<00:02:22.000> in<00:02:22.120> the<00:02:22.319> world<00:02:23.200> and<00:02:23.720> I<00:02:23.879> just<00:02:24.080> can't

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having now in the world and I just can't

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having now in the world and I just can't

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thank them enough for having uh uh

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thank them enough for having uh uh

joined<00:02:27.480> us<00:02:27.640> so<00:02:27.760> we're<00:02:27.879> going<00:02:28.000> to<00:02:28.120> be<00:02:28.319> quick<00:02:29.239> uh

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joined us so we're going to be quick uh

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joined us so we're going to be quick uh

so<00:02:29.560> we<00:02:29.959> get<00:02:30.040> to<00:02:30.200> as<00:02:30.360> many<00:02:31.319> uh<00:02:31.760> uh<00:02:32.200> uh<00:02:32.560> questions

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so we get to as many uh uh uh questions

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so we get to as many uh uh uh questions

and<00:02:34.000> answers<00:02:35.000> uh<00:02:35.360> as<00:02:35.519> we<00:02:35.760> can<00:02:36.040> in<00:02:36.239> this<00:02:36.400> limited

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and answers uh as we can in this limited

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and answers uh as we can in this limited

time<00:02:37.480> we<00:02:37.680> have<00:02:38.040> Aaron<00:02:38.360> David<00:02:38.959> Miller<00:02:39.560> is<00:02:40.560> uh

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time we have Aaron David Miller is uh

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time we have Aaron David Miller is uh

has<00:02:41.239> all<00:02:41.519> sorts<00:02:42.440> of<00:02:43.000> uh<00:02:43.440> positions<00:02:44.040> we<00:02:44.200> love

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has all sorts of uh positions we love

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has all sorts of uh positions we love

watching<00:02:44.760> him<00:02:45.400> wife<00:02:45.599> and<00:02:45.720> I<00:02:46.040> love<00:02:46.319> watching

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watching him wife and I love watching

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watching him wife and I love watching

him<00:02:46.800> on<00:02:47.400> uh<00:02:47.560> TV<00:02:47.920> he's<00:02:48.040> a<00:02:48.200> senior<00:02:48.480> fellow<00:02:48.840> at<00:02:48.959> the

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him on uh TV he's a senior fellow at the

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him on uh TV he's a senior fellow at the

Carnegie<00:02:49.560> Endowment<00:02:50.040> for<00:02:50.159> International

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Carnegie Endowment for International

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Carnegie Endowment for International

Peace<00:02:51.000> he's<00:02:51.200> always<00:02:51.440> asking<00:02:51.760> me<00:02:52.000> to<00:02:53.000> watch

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Peace he's always asking me to watch

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Peace he's always asking me to watch

some<00:02:53.800> of<00:02:53.959> his<00:02:54.159> material<00:02:54.640> he<00:02:54.760> has<00:02:54.920> written<00:02:55.319> five

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some of his material he has written five

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some of his material he has written five

books<00:02:56.480> uh<00:02:56.599> he<00:02:56.760> of<00:02:56.920> course<00:02:57.519> between<00:02:57.840> 1978<00:02:58.599> and

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books uh he of course between 1978 and

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books uh he of course between 1978 and

203<00:02:59.959> uh<00:03:00.120> served<00:03:00.480> as<00:03:00.640> the<00:03:01.040> state<00:03:01.360> department<00:03:01.920> as

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203 uh served as the state department as

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203 uh served as the state department as

a<00:03:02.319> historian<00:03:03.080> he's<00:03:03.280> got<00:03:03.480> loads<00:03:03.840> and<00:03:04.040> loads<00:03:04.519> of

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a historian he's got loads and loads of

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a historian he's got loads and loads of

Articles<00:03:05.360> he's<00:03:06.159> uh<00:03:06.440> as<00:03:06.560> I<00:03:06.720> say<00:03:07.040> on<00:03:07.799> TV<00:03:08.200> Etc<00:03:09.200> uh

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Articles he's uh as I say on TV Etc uh

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Articles he's uh as I say on TV Etc uh

all<00:03:09.920> the<00:03:10.120> time<00:03:10.640> Robin<00:03:11.000> Wright<00:03:11.879> is<00:03:12.599> uh

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all the time Robin Wright is uh

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all the time Robin Wright is uh

certainly<00:03:13.959> one<00:03:14.120> of<00:03:14.239> the<00:03:14.440> top<00:03:14.760> authors<00:03:15.200> about

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certainly one of the top authors about

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certainly one of the top authors about

the<00:03:15.560> kind<00:03:15.760> of<00:03:15.920> issues<00:03:16.200> we're<00:03:16.640> facing<00:03:18.000> uh

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the kind of issues we're facing uh

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the kind of issues we're facing uh

seeing<00:03:20.159> in<00:03:20.319> the<00:03:20.480> country<00:03:20.959> she's<00:03:21.959> uh<00:03:22.239> at<00:03:22.360> the

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seeing in the country she's uh at the

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seeing in the country she's uh at the

New<00:03:22.720> Yorker<00:03:23.159> she's<00:03:23.440> a<00:03:23.720> senior<00:03:23.920> fellow<00:03:24.200> at<00:03:24.360> the

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New Yorker she's a senior fellow at the

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New Yorker she's a senior fellow at the

US<00:03:24.799> Institute<00:03:25.200> of<00:03:25.319> Peace<00:03:25.680> and<00:03:26.120> the<00:03:26.280> wood

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US Institute of Peace and the wood

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US Institute of Peace and the wood

Wilson<00:03:27.120> Center<00:03:28.040> more<00:03:28.319> she's<00:03:28.640> been<00:03:28.959> reported

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Wilson Center more she's been reported

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Wilson Center more she's been reported

for<00:03:29.439> more

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for more

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for more

140<00:03:31.720> uh<00:03:32.159> uh<00:03:32.560> countries<00:03:32.920> for<00:03:33.080> the<00:03:33.200> New<00:03:33.680> Yorker

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140 uh uh countries for the New Yorker

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140 uh uh countries for the New Yorker

uh<00:03:35.439> so<00:03:36.439> I<00:03:36.599> just<00:03:36.720> want<00:03:36.840> to<00:03:37.000> say<00:03:37.360> again<00:03:38.360> two<00:03:38.560> of

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uh so I just want to say again two of

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uh so I just want to say again two of

you<00:03:39.159> thank<00:03:39.319> you<00:03:39.480> so<00:03:39.680> much<00:03:39.840> for<00:03:40.040> joining<00:03:40.439> us<00:03:41.000> it

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you thank you so much for joining us it

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you thank you so much for joining us it

means<00:03:41.920> so<00:03:42.200> much<00:03:42.439> to<00:03:42.720> us<00:03:43.159> so<00:03:43.400> much<00:03:43.640> to<00:03:43.840> me<00:03:44.480> and

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means so much to us so much to me and

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means so much to us so much to me and

we're<00:03:44.720> g<00:03:44.799> to<00:03:44.920> start<00:03:45.159> with<00:03:45.280> Aaron<00:03:45.599> David

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we're g to start with Aaron David

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we're g to start with Aaron David

Miller<00:03:47.439> Steve<00:03:47.799> thanks<00:03:48.000> so<00:03:48.200> much<00:03:48.400> it's<00:03:48.599> really

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Miller Steve thanks so much it's really

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Miller Steve thanks so much it's really

an<00:03:48.959> honor<00:03:49.640> to<00:03:49.760> be<00:03:49.959> here<00:03:50.120> with<00:03:50.239> you<00:03:50.480> and<00:03:50.720> and

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an honor to be here with you and and

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an honor to be here with you and and

with<00:03:51.120> Robin

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with Robin

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with Robin

um<00:03:53.599> uh<00:03:53.920> who<00:03:54.640> grew<00:03:54.879> up<00:03:55.000> in<00:03:55.159> an<00:03:55.360> arbor<00:03:56.200> uh<00:03:56.319> we

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um uh who grew up in an arbor uh we

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um uh who grew up in an arbor uh we

share<00:03:56.720> a<00:03:57.239> similar<00:03:58.239> uh<00:03:58.480> love<00:03:58.760> affair<00:03:59.079> with<00:03:59.239> the

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share a similar uh love affair with the

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share a similar uh love affair with the

Mich

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Mich

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Mich

Wolverines<00:04:01.200> Robin<00:04:01.560> is<00:04:01.680> one<00:04:01.799> of<00:04:01.920> the<00:04:02.079> most

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Wolverines Robin is one of the most

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Wolverines Robin is one of the most

talented<00:04:02.879> journalists<00:04:03.400> and<00:04:03.599> analysts<00:04:04.040> that<00:04:04.200> I

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talented journalists and analysts that I

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talented journalists and analysts that I

know<00:04:05.120> and<00:04:05.519> U<00:04:05.920> it's<00:04:06.159> always<00:04:06.519> wonderful<00:04:07.000> to<00:04:07.239> to

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know and U it's always wonderful to to

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know and U it's always wonderful to to

be<00:04:07.519> with<00:04:07.720> her<00:04:08.400> I<00:04:08.599> I<00:04:08.840> I<00:04:08.920> was<00:04:09.120> going<00:04:09.239> to<00:04:09.439> just

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be with her I I I was going to just

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be with her I I I was going to just

start<00:04:09.879> Steve<00:04:10.319> with<00:04:10.560> three<00:04:10.879> brief

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start Steve with three brief

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start Steve with three brief

comments<00:04:12.920> um<00:04:13.799> not<00:04:14.079> necessarily<00:04:14.480> on<00:04:14.640> the

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comments um not necessarily on the

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comments um not necessarily on the

crisis<00:04:15.200> itself<00:04:15.680> but<00:04:16.280> three<00:04:16.759> sort<00:04:17.000> of<00:04:17.239> comments

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crisis itself but three sort of comments

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crisis itself but three sort of comments

that<00:04:17.759> have<00:04:17.880> helped<00:04:18.239> me<00:04:19.239> these<00:04:19.519> last<00:04:19.759> several

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that have helped me these last several

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that have helped me these last several

weeks<00:04:20.840> uh<00:04:21.120> sort<00:04:21.359> of<00:04:21.519> look<00:04:21.680> at<00:04:21.880> this<00:04:22.040> and

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weeks uh sort of look at this and

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weeks uh sort of look at this and

process<00:04:22.919> it<00:04:23.160> number<00:04:23.400> one<00:04:23.720> is<00:04:24.320> humility<00:04:25.320> what

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process it number one is humility what

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process it number one is humility what

we<00:04:25.600> know<00:04:25.800> about<00:04:26.040> this<00:04:26.280> crisis<00:04:27.080> un<00:04:28.080> unfolding

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we know about this crisis un unfolding

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we know about this crisis un unfolding

um<00:04:29.360> great

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um great

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um great

L<00:04:31.520> um<00:04:32.360> is<00:04:32.600> diminished<00:04:33.120> by<00:04:33.280> what<00:04:33.440> we<00:04:33.600> do<00:04:33.800> not

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L um is diminished by what we do not

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L um is diminished by what we do not

know<00:04:34.840> partly<00:04:35.199> it's<00:04:35.320> a<00:04:35.520> function<00:04:35.840> of<00:04:35.960> a<00:04:36.199> fast

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know partly it's a function of a fast

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know partly it's a function of a fast

moving<00:04:36.880> media<00:04:37.479> which<00:04:37.880> which<00:04:38.080> reports

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moving media which which reports

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moving media which which reports

breathlessly<00:04:40.199> usually<00:04:40.639> without<00:04:41.039> perspective

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breathlessly usually without perspective

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breathlessly usually without perspective

and<00:04:41.919> without<00:04:42.280> knowledge<00:04:42.720> on<00:04:42.960> some<00:04:43.120> of<00:04:43.280> the<00:04:43.520> key

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and without knowledge on some of the key

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and without knowledge on some of the key

issues<00:04:44.600> whether<00:04:44.840> it's<00:04:45.039> the<00:04:45.240> hostages<00:04:45.960> which

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issues whether it's the hostages which

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issues whether it's the hostages which

is<00:04:46.199> an<00:04:46.440> incredibly<00:04:47.039> opaque<00:04:47.600> situation<00:04:48.600> the

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is an incredibly opaque situation the

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is an incredibly opaque situation the

looming<00:04:49.160> Israeli<00:04:49.639> ground<00:04:50.320> campaign<00:04:51.440> promised

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looming Israeli ground campaign promised

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looming Israeli ground campaign promised

perhaps<00:04:53.240> evolving<00:04:54.240> chances<00:04:54.680> of<00:04:54.880> escalation

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perhaps evolving chances of escalation

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perhaps evolving chances of escalation

on<00:04:55.560> the<00:04:55.680> Israeli<00:04:56.080> leban<00:04:56.600> border<00:04:57.039> so<00:04:57.320> much<00:04:57.520> of

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on the Israeli leban border so much of

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on the Israeli leban border so much of

what<00:04:57.919> we're<00:04:58.560> watching<00:04:59.600> is<00:04:59.880> opaque<00:05:00.720> and<00:05:01.000> really

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what we're watching is opaque and really

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what we're watching is opaque and really

beyond<00:05:01.680> our<00:05:02.000> capacity<00:05:02.520> to<00:05:02.800> Intuit<00:05:03.199> it<00:05:04.039> let

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beyond our capacity to Intuit it let

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beyond our capacity to Intuit it let

alone<00:05:04.960> analyze<00:05:06.280> speculation<00:05:07.280> uh<00:05:07.560> can<00:05:07.720> be

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alone analyze speculation uh can be

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alone analyze speculation uh can be

harmful<00:05:08.400> at<00:05:08.600> times<00:05:09.080> but<00:05:10.000> it<00:05:10.120> runs<00:05:10.440> rampant<00:05:10.960> now

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harmful at times but it runs rampant now

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harmful at times but it runs rampant now

and<00:05:11.680> that<00:05:11.840> calls<00:05:12.160> for<00:05:12.440> real<00:05:12.800> discipline<00:05:13.479> in<00:05:13.639> my

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and that calls for real discipline in my

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and that calls for real discipline in my

judgment<00:05:14.960> on<00:05:15.160> our<00:05:15.440> analysis<00:05:16.039> and<00:05:16.320> restraint

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judgment on our analysis and restraint

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judgment on our analysis and restraint

in<00:05:17.160> quickly<00:05:17.520> reaching<00:05:18.520> conclusions<00:05:19.520> that

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in quickly reaching conclusions that

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in quickly reaching conclusions that

aren't<00:05:19.960> substantiated<00:05:20.960> by<00:05:21.280> facts<00:05:21.680> and

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aren't substantiated by facts and

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aren't substantiated by facts and

empirical<00:05:22.960> data<00:05:23.360> that's<00:05:23.680> Point<00:05:23.919> 101<00:05:24.680> number

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empirical data that's Point 101 number

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empirical data that's Point 101 number

two<00:05:25.160> is

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two is

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two is

Humanity<00:05:27.560> Hamas<00:05:27.960> is<00:05:28.160> intentional<00:05:28.759> and

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Humanity Hamas is intentional and

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Humanity Hamas is intentional and

indiscriminate<00:05:29.919> killing<00:05:30.360> that<00:05:30.520> took<00:05:30.720> the

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indiscriminate killing that took the

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indiscriminate killing that took the

lives<00:05:31.120> of<00:05:31.400> 1400<00:05:32.400> Israelis<00:05:33.000> on<00:05:33.160> October<00:05:33.600> 7<00:05:34.199> was

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lives of 1400 Israelis on October 7 was

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lives of 1400 Israelis on October 7 was

unprecedented<00:05:36.039> and<00:05:36.240> breathtaking<00:05:37.120> in<00:05:37.280> its

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unprecedented and breathtaking in its

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unprecedented and breathtaking in its

pure<00:05:38.039> savagery<00:05:38.639> and

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pure savagery and

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pure savagery and

brutality<00:05:40.600> at<00:05:40.720> the<00:05:40.880> same

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brutality at the same

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brutality at the same

time<00:05:42.919> those<00:05:43.479> Horrors<00:05:44.479> cannot<00:05:45.199> and<00:05:45.560> should<00:05:45.960> not

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time those Horrors cannot and should not

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time those Horrors cannot and should not

prevent<00:05:47.360> us<00:05:47.800> from

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prevent us from

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prevent us from

understanding<00:05:50.520> um<00:05:51.440> both<00:05:52.280> from<00:05:52.520> the

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understanding um both from the

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understanding um both from the

perspective<00:05:53.199> of<00:05:53.319> our<00:05:53.520> hearts<00:05:53.759> and<00:05:53.960> our<00:05:54.199> minds

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perspective of our hearts and our minds

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perspective of our hearts and our minds

the

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the

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the

suffering<00:05:56.800> and<00:05:56.960> the<00:05:57.120> deaths<00:05:57.360> of<00:05:57.600> thousands<00:05:58.039> of

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suffering and the deaths of thousands of

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suffering and the deaths of thousands of

Palestinians<00:05:59.240> as<00:05:59.560> a<00:05:59.680> consequence<00:06:00.160> of<00:06:00.360> Israeli

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Palestinians as a consequence of Israeli

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Palestinians as a consequence of Israeli

strikes<00:06:01.280> in<00:06:01.400> an<00:06:01.600> effort<00:06:01.919> to<00:06:02.720> strike<00:06:03.240> back<00:06:03.520> at

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strikes in an effort to strike back at

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strikes in an effort to strike back at

Hamas<00:06:05.400> as<00:06:05.560> secretary<00:06:06.039> blinkin<00:06:06.599> has<00:06:06.800> said

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Hamas as secretary blinkin has said

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Hamas as secretary blinkin has said

there's<00:06:07.599> no<00:06:08.360> hierarchy<00:06:09.360> when<00:06:09.520> it<00:06:09.680> comes<00:06:09.880> to

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there's no hierarchy when it comes to

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there's no hierarchy when it comes to

the<00:06:10.280> deaths<00:06:10.639> of<00:06:10.960> civilians<00:06:11.520> in<00:06:11.840> war<00:06:12.840> be<00:06:13.039> they

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the deaths of civilians in war be they

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the deaths of civilians in war be they

Israelis<00:06:13.759> or<00:06:14.000> Palestinians<00:06:14.720> and<00:06:14.960> finally

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Israelis or Palestinians and finally

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Israelis or Palestinians and finally

just<00:06:15.599> a<00:06:15.840> note<00:06:16.280> on<00:06:16.639> Hope<00:06:17.400> and<00:06:17.880> history<00:06:18.880> on

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just a note on Hope and history on

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just a note on Hope and history on

October<00:06:19.520> 6<00:06:19.919> 1973<00:06:20.919> I<00:06:21.039> was<00:06:21.199> in<00:06:21.880> Jerusalem<00:06:22.880> and

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October 6 1973 I was in Jerusalem and

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October 6 1973 I was in Jerusalem and

watched<00:06:23.440> an<00:06:23.599> Israeli<00:06:24.160> Society<00:06:24.680> traumatized

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watched an Israeli Society traumatized

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watched an Israeli Society traumatized

by<00:06:25.759> the

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by the

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by the

October<00:06:27.759> 1973<00:06:28.759> yum<00:06:29.520> award<00:06:30.440> and<00:06:30.599> yet<00:06:30.759> within

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October 1973 yum award and yet within

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October 1973 yum award and yet within

six<00:06:31.440> years<00:06:31.800> of<00:06:32.000> that<00:06:32.240> trauma<00:06:32.759> and<00:06:32.960> the<00:06:33.120> largest

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six years of that trauma and the largest

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six years of that trauma and the largest

intelligence<00:06:34.479> failure<00:06:35.039> to<00:06:35.800> date<00:06:36.800> uh<00:06:36.960> that

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intelligence failure to date uh that

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intelligence failure to date uh that

trauma<00:06:37.599> would<00:06:37.759> turn<00:06:38.000> to<00:06:38.240> Hope<00:06:39.240> with<00:06:39.400> the

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trauma would turn to Hope with the

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trauma would turn to Hope with the

signing<00:06:39.919> of<00:06:40.039> an<00:06:40.199> Egyptian<00:06:40.599> Israeli<00:06:41.039> Peace<00:06:41.240> Tre

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signing of an Egyptian Israeli Peace Tre

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signing of an Egyptian Israeli Peace Tre

which<00:06:41.840> still<00:06:42.080> endures<00:06:42.800> however<00:06:43.039> imperfect<00:06:43.520> it

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which still endures however imperfect it

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which still endures however imperfect it

may<00:06:43.880> be<00:06:44.840> 20<00:06:45.199> years<00:06:45.479> later<00:06:45.880> I<00:06:46.039> watched<00:06:46.360> on<00:06:46.520> the

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may be 20 years later I watched on the

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may be 20 years later I watched on the

White<00:06:46.960> House<00:06:47.280> lawn<00:06:48.280> as<00:06:48.560> President<00:06:48.960> Clinton

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White House lawn as President Clinton

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White House lawn as President Clinton

Israeli<00:06:50.120> Prime<00:06:50.319> Minister<00:06:50.680> Rabin<00:06:51.520> and<00:06:51.720> poo

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Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and poo

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Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and poo

chairman<00:06:52.520> Yas<00:06:52.919> arot<00:06:53.800> signed<00:06:54.199> the<00:06:54.319> oso

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chairman Yas arot signed the oso

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chairman Yas arot signed the oso

Accords<00:06:56.759> there<00:06:57.759> great<00:06:58.120> hope<00:06:58.440> turned<00:06:58.720> to

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Accords there great hope turned to

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Accords there great hope turned to

trauma

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trauma

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trauma

we<00:07:00.479> really<00:07:00.800> cannot<00:07:01.240> see<00:07:01.560> what's<00:07:01.759> in<00:07:01.919> front<00:07:02.120> of

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we really cannot see what's in front of

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we really cannot see what's in front of

us<00:07:03.120> every<00:07:03.400> breakthrough<00:07:03.879> in<00:07:04.000> the<00:07:04.080> Arab

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us every breakthrough in the Arab

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us every breakthrough in the Arab

Israeli<00:07:05.039> conflict<00:07:05.599> Zone<00:07:06.440> I<00:07:06.520> will<00:07:06.680> not<00:07:06.879> include

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Israeli conflict Zone I will not include

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Israeli conflict Zone I will not include

the<00:07:07.360> Abraham<00:07:07.759> Accords<00:07:08.240> because<00:07:08.479> they<00:07:08.599> are<00:07:08.800> not

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the Abraham Accords because they are not

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the Abraham Accords because they are not

what<00:07:09.599> I<00:07:09.720> would<00:07:09.960> describe<00:07:10.360> as<00:07:10.479> a<00:07:10.720> conflict<00:07:11.199> Zone

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what I would describe as a conflict Zone

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what I would describe as a conflict Zone

agreement<00:07:12.639> but<00:07:12.800> everyone<00:07:13.240> in<00:07:13.400> the<00:07:13.639> conflict

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agreement but everyone in the conflict

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agreement but everyone in the conflict

Zone<00:07:14.960> was<00:07:15.360> preceded<00:07:15.919> by<00:07:16.479> Terror<00:07:17.720> Insurgency

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Zone was preceded by Terror Insurgency

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Zone was preceded by Terror Insurgency

and<00:07:18.919> War<00:07:19.560> whether<00:07:19.840> it<00:07:19.919> was<00:07:20.080> the<00:07:20.240> 73<00:07:21.000> War<00:07:21.440> which

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and War whether it was the 73 War which

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and War whether it was the 73 War which

produced<00:07:22.240> SED<00:07:22.599> Do's<00:07:23.400> initiative<00:07:24.400> whether<00:07:24.720> it

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produced SED Do's initiative whether it

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produced SED Do's initiative whether it

was<00:07:25.680> Baker's<00:07:26.199> Madrid<00:07:26.639> peace<00:07:27.319> conference

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was Baker's Madrid peace conference

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was Baker's Madrid peace conference

which<00:07:28.479> was<00:07:28.639> driven<00:07:28.919> in<00:07:29.080> large<00:07:29.560> part<00:07:29.759> by

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which was driven in large part by

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which was driven in large part by

saddam's<00:07:30.400> invasion<00:07:30.720> of<00:07:30.919> Kuwait<00:07:31.280> and<00:07:31.400> the<00:07:31.520> Bush

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saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the Bush

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saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the Bush

41<00:07:32.800> administration's<00:07:33.560> efforts<00:07:33.879> to<00:07:34.280> push<00:07:35.280> him

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41 administration's efforts to push him

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41 administration's efforts to push him

out<00:07:35.680> of<00:07:35.919> Kuwait<00:07:36.360> or<00:07:36.599> or<00:07:36.759> the<00:07:36.919> oselot<00:07:37.479> the

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out of Kuwait or or the oselot the

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out of Kuwait or or the oselot the

failed<00:07:38.039> ocel<00:07:38.560> process<00:07:39.400> and<00:07:39.599> the<00:07:40.120> successful

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failed ocel process and the successful

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failed ocel process and the successful

Israeli<00:07:41.039> Jordanian<00:07:41.599> peace<00:07:41.840> treaty<00:07:42.280> which

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Israeli Jordanian peace treaty which

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Israeli Jordanian peace treaty which

were<00:07:43.319> driven<00:07:44.319> essentially<00:07:45.039> by<00:07:45.599> the<00:07:45.759> first

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were driven essentially by the first

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were driven essentially by the first

inata<00:07:46.720> and<00:07:46.840> changing<00:07:47.319> Israeli<00:07:47.720> and

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inata and changing Israeli and

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inata and changing Israeli and

Palestinian<00:07:48.520> calculations<00:07:49.199> about<00:07:49.400> a

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Palestinian calculations about a

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Palestinian calculations about a

diplomatic<00:07:50.560> process<00:07:51.560> the<00:07:51.720> Arc<00:07:51.960> of<00:07:52.159> History

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diplomatic process the Arc of History

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diplomatic process the Arc of History

bends<00:07:52.919> in<00:07:53.280> very<00:07:53.720> unpredictable<00:07:54.759> ways<00:07:55.759> and

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bends in very unpredictable ways and

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bends in very unpredictable ways and

maybe<00:07:56.319> something<00:07:56.680> of<00:07:56.919> value<00:07:57.440> will<00:07:57.680> come<00:07:57.840> out

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maybe something of value will come out

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maybe something of value will come out

of<00:07:58.199> this<00:07:58.440> crisis

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of this crisis

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of this crisis

uh<00:08:00.080> but<00:08:00.240> one<00:08:00.479> thing<00:08:00.759> is<00:08:01.280> is<00:08:01.840> clear<00:08:02.680> clearly

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uh but one thing is is clear clearly

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uh but one thing is is clear clearly

evident<00:08:04.360> hoping<00:08:04.759> isn't

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evident hoping isn't

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evident hoping isn't

enough<00:08:06.759> uh<00:08:07.080> if<00:08:07.280> you<00:08:07.400> want<00:08:07.479> to<00:08:07.639> bend<00:08:07.960> the<00:08:08.159> Arc<00:08:08.400> of

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enough uh if you want to bend the Arc of

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enough uh if you want to bend the Arc of

History<00:08:09.520> humans<00:08:09.919> have<00:08:10.080> to<00:08:10.240> work<00:08:10.879> tirelessly

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History humans have to work tirelessly

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History humans have to work tirelessly

in<00:08:12.000> an<00:08:12.199> effort<00:08:12.440> to<00:08:12.599> make<00:08:12.720> sure<00:08:12.960> it's<00:08:13.159> bent<00:08:13.440> in

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in an effort to make sure it's bent in

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in an effort to make sure it's bent in

the<00:08:13.680> right

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the right

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the right

direction<00:08:15.400> uh<00:08:16.240> Robin<00:08:16.639> do<00:08:16.759> you<00:08:16.879> have<00:08:17.039> any<00:08:17.479> any

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direction uh Robin do you have any any

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direction uh Robin do you have any any

uh<00:08:19.000> anything<00:08:19.319> else<00:08:19.560> to<00:08:19.720> say<00:08:20.039> just<00:08:20.240> as<00:08:20.400> we

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uh anything else to say just as we

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uh anything else to say just as we

start<00:08:22.400> Erin's<00:08:22.759> covered<00:08:23.039> a<00:08:23.120> lot<00:08:23.520> uh<00:08:23.599> and<00:08:23.720> I'm

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start Erin's covered a lot uh and I'm

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start Erin's covered a lot uh and I'm

always<00:08:24.080> honored<00:08:24.479> to<00:08:24.680> to<00:08:24.759> be<00:08:24.919> on<00:08:25.080> with<00:08:25.199> Aon<00:08:25.599> we

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always honored to to be on with Aon we

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always honored to to be on with Aon we

our<00:08:25.960> lives<00:08:26.199> have<00:08:26.440> cross<00:08:27.080> intersected<00:08:27.680> in<00:08:27.800> any

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our lives have cross intersected in any

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our lives have cross intersected in any

number<00:08:28.280> of<00:08:28.440> ways<00:08:29.400> um<00:08:29.919> uh<00:08:30.080> traveling<00:08:30.440> with

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number of ways um uh traveling with

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number of ways um uh traveling with

secretaries<00:08:31.039> of<00:08:31.240> State<00:08:31.879> uh<00:08:32.039> being<00:08:32.240> on<00:08:32.399> the

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secretaries of State uh being on the

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secretaries of State uh being on the

same<00:08:32.839> campus<00:08:33.440> as<00:08:33.640> students<00:08:34.279> at<00:08:34.760> gobl<00:08:35.560> Michigan

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same campus as students at gobl Michigan

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same campus as students at gobl Michigan

um<00:08:36.959> so<00:08:37.880> and<00:08:38.080> and<00:08:38.240> we've<00:08:38.440> shared<00:08:39.440> uh<00:08:39.599> positions

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um so and and we've shared uh positions

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um so and and we've shared uh positions

at<00:08:40.599> at<00:08:41.599> think<00:08:41.880> tanks<00:08:42.159> as<00:08:42.320> well<00:08:43.159> um<00:08:43.279> and<00:08:43.399> we

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at at think tanks as well um and we

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at at think tanks as well um and we

agree<00:08:43.839> on<00:08:44.159> on<00:08:44.360> a<00:08:44.480> lot<00:08:44.839> I<00:08:44.920> think<00:08:45.480> what<00:08:45.640> I'd

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agree on on a lot I think what I'd

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agree on on a lot I think what I'd

probably<00:08:46.200> do<00:08:46.399> is<00:08:46.640> I<00:08:46.880> also<00:08:47.200> covered<00:08:47.680> I've

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probably do is I also covered I've

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probably do is I also covered I've

covered<00:08:48.160> this<00:08:48.839> tragedy<00:08:49.480> in<00:08:49.600> the<00:08:49.680> Middle<00:08:49.959> East

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covered this tragedy in the Middle East

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covered this tragedy in the Middle East

for<00:08:50.320> 50<00:08:50.600> years<00:08:50.839> I<00:08:50.959> landed<00:08:51.279> in<00:08:51.440> Beirut<00:08:52.240> on

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for 50 years I landed in Beirut on

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for 50 years I landed in Beirut on

October<00:08:52.839> 6<00:08:53.600> 1973<00:08:54.600> and<00:08:54.720> I<00:08:54.839> remember<00:08:55.160> being<00:08:55.399> at

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October 6 1973 and I remember being at

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October 6 1973 and I remember being at

the<00:08:55.760> airport<00:08:56.760> uh<00:08:57.360> in<00:08:57.519> Beirut<00:08:57.959> in<00:08:58.079> the<00:08:58.320> transit

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the airport uh in Beirut in the transit

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the airport uh in Beirut in the transit

Lounge<00:08:59.200> I<00:08:59.279> was<00:08:59.399> actually<00:08:59.600> on<00:08:59.760> my<00:08:59.920> way<00:09:00.040> to<00:09:00.320> Iran

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Lounge I was actually on my way to Iran

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Lounge I was actually on my way to Iran

and<00:09:01.880> a<00:09:02.000> woman<00:09:02.440> whispered<00:09:02.880> to<00:09:03.000> me<00:09:03.200> very

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and a woman whispered to me very

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and a woman whispered to me very

anxiously<00:09:04.560> the<00:09:04.720> Egyptians<00:09:05.240> have<00:09:05.399> just

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anxiously the Egyptians have just

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anxiously the Egyptians have just

crossed<00:09:05.959> the<00:09:06.079> Suez<00:09:06.920> Canal<00:09:07.920> um<00:09:08.519> what<00:09:08.680> we've

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crossed the Suez Canal um what we've

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crossed the Suez Canal um what we've

really<00:09:09.079> seen<00:09:09.480> play<00:09:09.720> out<00:09:10.279> is<00:09:10.399> the<00:09:10.560> evolution<00:09:11.000> of

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really seen play out is the evolution of

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really seen play out is the evolution of

a<00:09:11.279> type<00:09:11.440> of<00:09:11.600> warfare<00:09:12.079> that's<00:09:12.320> important<00:09:12.640> to

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a type of warfare that's important to

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a type of warfare that's important to

understand<00:09:14.480> uh<00:09:14.800> between<00:09:15.160> 1948<00:09:15.880> and<00:09:16.000> 1973

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understand uh between 1948 and 1973

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understand uh between 1948 and 1973

Israel<00:09:17.320> went<00:09:17.519> through<00:09:17.959> through<00:09:18.240> four

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Israel went through through four

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Israel went through through four

conventional<00:09:19.320> Wars<00:09:20.240> but<00:09:20.440> every<00:09:20.720> war<00:09:21.000> in<00:09:21.120> the

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conventional Wars but every war in the

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conventional Wars but every war in the

half<00:09:21.519> century<00:09:21.920> since<00:09:22.240> then<00:09:22.480> has<00:09:22.640> pitted

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half century since then has pitted

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half century since then has pitted

Israel<00:09:23.800> against<00:09:24.519> a<00:09:24.680> non-state<00:09:25.279> actor<00:09:25.839> be<00:09:26.040> it

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Israel against a non-state actor be it

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Israel against a non-state actor be it

the<00:09:26.519> Palestinian<00:09:27.079> Liberation<00:09:27.600> Organization

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the Palestinian Liberation Organization

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the Palestinian Liberation Organization

has<00:09:28.800> bull

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has bull

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has bull

Hamas<00:09:31.000> um<00:09:31.279> Hezbollah<00:09:31.959> again<00:09:32.560> Hamas<00:09:33.120> again<00:09:34.000> and

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Hamas um Hezbollah again Hamas again and

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Hamas um Hezbollah again Hamas again and

it's<00:09:34.680> very<00:09:34.959> under<00:09:35.399> important<00:09:35.800> I<00:09:35.880> think<00:09:36.000> to

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it's very under important I think to

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it's very under important I think to

understand<00:09:36.760> the<00:09:36.959> pattern<00:09:37.320> of<00:09:37.440> warfare

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understand the pattern of warfare

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understand the pattern of warfare

because<00:09:38.200> it<00:09:38.279> is<00:09:38.519> much<00:09:38.800> harder<00:09:39.680> to<00:09:39.880> fight<00:09:40.079> a

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because it is much harder to fight a

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because it is much harder to fight a

non-state<00:09:40.720> actor<00:09:41.079> to<00:09:41.240> fight<00:09:41.399> a<00:09:41.519> militia<00:09:41.920> than

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non-state actor to fight a militia than

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non-state actor to fight a militia than

it<00:09:42.200> is<00:09:42.720> to<00:09:42.920> fight<00:09:43.160> a<00:09:43.320> state<00:09:43.680> where<00:09:43.920> you<00:09:44.040> know

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it is to fight a state where you know

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it is to fight a state where you know

what<00:09:44.399> the<00:09:44.560> Diplomatic<00:09:45.160> address<00:09:45.560> is<00:09:45.880> what<00:09:46.000> the

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what the Diplomatic address is what the

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what the Diplomatic address is what the

potential<00:09:47.360> diplomatic<00:09:48.240> engagement<00:09:48.920> might<00:09:49.160> be

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potential diplomatic engagement might be

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potential diplomatic engagement might be

and<00:09:50.920> uh<00:09:51.040> what<00:09:51.200> an<00:09:51.360> outcome<00:09:51.720> might<00:09:51.920> be<00:09:52.079> in<00:09:52.200> terms

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and uh what an outcome might be in terms

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and uh what an outcome might be in terms

of<00:09:53.079> uh<00:09:53.360> of<00:09:53.640> peace<00:09:54.440> and<00:09:54.560> I<00:09:54.680> think<00:09:54.839> with<00:09:54.959> an

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of uh of peace and I think with an

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of uh of peace and I think with an

unconventional<00:09:55.880> actor<00:09:56.600> a<00:09:56.760> non-state<00:09:57.320> actor

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unconventional actor a non-state actor

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unconventional actor a non-state actor

you<00:09:58.279> have<00:09:58.519> basic<00:09:58.839> question<00:09:59.120> questions<00:09:59.519> what

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you have basic question questions what

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you have basic question questions what

is<00:09:59.720> winning<00:10:00.640> what<00:10:00.760> is<00:10:01.000> peace<00:10:01.720> what<00:10:01.839> is<00:10:02.000> the

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is winning what is peace what is the

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is winning what is peace what is the

alternative<00:10:03.279> and<00:10:03.600> all<00:10:03.760> of<00:10:03.959> these<00:10:04.240> questions

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alternative and all of these questions

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alternative and all of these questions

are<00:10:05.040> today

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are today

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are today

unanswerable<00:10:07.079> I<00:10:07.240> think<00:10:07.720> uh<00:10:07.839> when<00:10:07.959> I<00:10:08.120> look<00:10:08.279> at

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unanswerable I think uh when I look at

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unanswerable I think uh when I look at

where<00:10:08.640> we<00:10:08.760> are<00:10:09.040> now<00:10:09.480> I<00:10:09.600> think<00:10:09.800> we<00:10:09.920> are<00:10:10.160> at<00:10:10.320> a

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where we are now I think we are at a

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where we are now I think we are at a

precipice<00:10:11.640> we<00:10:11.760> are<00:10:11.959> not<00:10:12.680> about<00:10:12.959> to<00:10:13.120> fall<00:10:13.480> off

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precipice we are not about to fall off

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precipice we are not about to fall off

the<00:10:13.920> precipice<00:10:14.920> but<00:10:15.839> and<00:10:16.000> I<00:10:16.120> think<00:10:16.519> in<00:10:16.760> fact

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the precipice but and I think in fact

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the precipice but and I think in fact

that<00:10:17.480> the<00:10:17.880> the<00:10:18.200> outside<00:10:18.800> actors<00:10:19.519> who<00:10:19.720> are<00:10:20.640> kind

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that the the outside actors who are kind

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that the the outside actors who are kind

of<00:10:21.079> Quasi<00:10:21.720> engaged<00:10:22.440> or<00:10:23.160> have<00:10:23.279> a<00:10:23.440> quazi<00:10:24.000> have<00:10:24.120> a

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of Quasi engaged or have a quazi have a

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of Quasi engaged or have a quazi have a

stake<00:10:24.680> in<00:10:25.200> this<00:10:26.000> conflict<00:10:26.560> whether<00:10:26.839> it's<00:10:27.079> Iran

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stake in this conflict whether it's Iran

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stake in this conflict whether it's Iran

on<00:10:28.000> one<00:10:28.240> side<00:10:28.480> the<00:10:28.560> unit<00:10:29.160> States<00:10:29.320> and<00:10:29.440> the

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on one side the unit States and the

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on one side the unit States and the

other<00:10:30.160> several<00:10:30.560> militias<00:10:31.399> in<00:10:32.000> Yemen<00:10:32.600> Iraq

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other several militias in Yemen Iraq

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other several militias in Yemen Iraq

Syria<00:10:33.959> and<00:10:34.320> Lebanon<00:10:35.320> that<00:10:35.839> that<00:10:36.000> at<00:10:36.160> this

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Syria and Lebanon that that at this

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Syria and Lebanon that that at this

point<00:10:36.959> none<00:10:37.200> of<00:10:37.320> them<00:10:37.440> want<00:10:37.639> a<00:10:37.800> bigger<00:10:38.120> War<00:10:38.920> but

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point none of them want a bigger War but

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point none of them want a bigger War but

as<00:10:39.240> we<00:10:39.399> all<00:10:39.560> know<00:10:39.800> from<00:10:39.959> the<00:10:40.120> history<00:10:40.399> of

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as we all know from the history of

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as we all know from the history of

conflict<00:10:41.160> it<00:10:41.279> takes<00:10:41.600> one<00:10:42.079> incident<00:10:42.600> to

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conflict it takes one incident to

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conflict it takes one incident to

escalate<00:10:43.839> to<00:10:44.000> get<00:10:44.160> it<00:10:44.320> out<00:10:44.480> of<00:10:44.680> control<00:10:45.079> to

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escalate to get it out of control to

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escalate to get it out of control to

lead<00:10:45.440> us<00:10:45.560> on<00:10:45.680> a<00:10:45.880> different<00:10:46.320> trajectory<00:10:47.320> and

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lead us on a different trajectory and

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lead us on a different trajectory and

the<00:10:47.680> algorithm<00:10:48.279> of<00:10:48.440> this<00:10:48.720> of<00:10:48.880> this<00:10:49.040> war<00:10:49.399> is

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the algorithm of this of this war is

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the algorithm of this of this war is

different<00:10:49.920> than<00:10:50.160> any<00:10:50.600> of<00:10:50.880> the<00:10:51.200> previous

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different than any of the previous

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different than any of the previous

conflicts<00:10:52.680> between<00:10:53.079> Israel<00:10:53.639> and<00:10:53.959> the

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conflicts between Israel and the

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conflicts between Israel and the

non-state<00:10:54.680> actors<00:10:55.200> in<00:10:55.399> that<00:10:55.560> in<00:10:55.680> the<00:10:55.959> past<00:10:56.680> it

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non-state actors in that in the past it

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non-state actors in that in the past it

has<00:10:57.000> been<00:10:57.240> a<00:10:57.440> provocation<00:10:58.360> by<00:10:58.839> one<00:10:59.040> one<00:10:59.120> of<00:10:59.240> the

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has been a provocation by one one of the

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has been a provocation by one one of the

militias<00:10:59.959> an<00:11:00.160> Israeli<00:11:00.880> countered<00:11:01.360> with<00:11:01.480> air

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militias an Israeli countered with air

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militias an Israeli countered with air

strikes<00:11:02.639> perhaps<00:11:03.440> small<00:11:03.839> grounds<00:11:04.560> ground

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strikes perhaps small grounds ground

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strikes perhaps small grounds ground

actions<00:11:05.920> uh<00:11:06.040> but<00:11:06.200> then<00:11:06.480> got<00:11:06.720> her<00:11:06.839> in<00:11:07.040> Egypt

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actions uh but then got her in Egypt

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actions uh but then got her in Egypt

particularly<00:11:07.920> get<00:11:08.079> go<00:11:08.279> in<00:11:08.639> and<00:11:09.440> engage<00:11:09.839> in<00:11:10.480> in

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particularly get go in and engage in in

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particularly get go in and engage in in

um<00:11:12.839> some<00:11:13.079> kind<00:11:13.240> of<00:11:13.639> temporary<00:11:14.079> ceasefire<00:11:14.600> with

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um some kind of temporary ceasefire with

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um some kind of temporary ceasefire with

the<00:11:14.839> emphasis<00:11:15.279> on<00:11:15.600> temporary<00:11:16.600> and<00:11:16.720> the

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the emphasis on temporary and the

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the emphasis on temporary and the

problem<00:11:17.240> is<00:11:17.399> that<00:11:17.560> none<00:11:17.720> of<00:11:17.880> the<00:11:18.000> core

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problem is that none of the core

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problem is that none of the core

questions<00:11:19.880> uh<00:11:20.120> that<00:11:20.399> have<00:11:20.639> defined<00:11:21.120> this

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questions uh that have defined this

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questions uh that have defined this

conflict<00:11:21.720> the<00:11:21.800> fate<00:11:22.000> of<00:11:22.120> the<00:11:22.360> Palestinians

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conflict the fate of the Palestinians

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conflict the fate of the Palestinians

you<00:11:23.480> know<00:11:23.880> the<00:11:24.040> relations<00:11:24.560> between<00:11:24.880> Israel

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you know the relations between Israel

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you know the relations between Israel

and<00:11:25.440> its<00:11:26.440> uh<00:11:26.959> Arab<00:11:27.279> or<00:11:27.440> Muslim<00:11:27.760> neighbors<00:11:28.240> have

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and its uh Arab or Muslim neighbors have

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and its uh Arab or Muslim neighbors have

been<00:11:28.560> addressed<00:11:29.240> since<00:11:29.760> 1948<00:11:30.760> and<00:11:30.880> there<00:11:31.000> have

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been addressed since 1948 and there have

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been addressed since 1948 and there have

been<00:11:31.320> attempts<00:11:32.240> now<00:11:32.920> um<00:11:33.200> kind<00:11:33.320> of<00:11:33.639> taking<00:11:34.000> the

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been attempts now um kind of taking the

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been attempts now um kind of taking the

my<00:11:34.680> dad<00:11:34.959> always<00:11:35.160> said<00:11:35.360> to<00:11:35.760> understand<00:11:35.920> any

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my dad always said to understand any

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my dad always said to understand any

conflict<00:11:36.519> you<00:11:36.639> have<00:11:36.760> to<00:11:37.000> stand<00:11:37.200> on<00:11:37.360> top<00:11:37.560> of<00:11:37.680> the

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conflict you have to stand on top of the

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conflict you have to stand on top of the

world<00:11:38.000> and<00:11:38.160> look<00:11:38.399> down<00:11:39.120> and<00:11:39.240> it's<00:11:39.440> very<00:11:39.639> good

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world and look down and it's very good

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world and look down and it's very good

advice<00:11:40.240> right<00:11:40.440> now<00:11:41.120> uh<00:11:41.360> I<00:11:41.480> think<00:11:41.720> what's

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advice right now uh I think what's

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advice right now uh I think what's

important<00:11:42.320> to<00:11:42.760> understand<00:11:43.160> is<00:11:43.440> that<00:11:44.360> uh<00:11:44.639> since

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important to understand is that uh since

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important to understand is that uh since

since<00:11:45.839> the<00:11:46.000> 1970s<00:11:46.720> for<00:11:46.920> a<00:11:47.040> half<00:11:47.320> almost<00:11:47.519> a<00:11:47.680> half

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since the 1970s for a half almost a half

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since the 1970s for a half almost a half

century<00:11:49.160> there<00:11:49.360> has<00:11:49.600> been<00:11:50.320> slowly<00:11:51.160> a

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century there has been slowly a

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century there has been slowly a

tapestry<00:11:53.200> uh<00:11:53.399> that<00:11:53.519> has<00:11:53.680> been<00:11:53.920> woven<00:11:55.079> by<00:11:56.079> play

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tapestry uh that has been woven by play

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tapestry uh that has been woven by play

players<00:11:56.880> whether<00:11:57.079> it's<00:11:57.200> Israel<00:11:57.560> and<00:11:57.760> Egypt<00:11:58.200> F

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players whether it's Israel and Egypt F

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players whether it's Israel and Egypt F

first<00:11:58.959> and<00:11:59.079> then<00:11:59.480> Israel<00:11:59.839> and<00:12:00.040> Jordan<00:12:00.600> and

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first and then Israel and Jordan and

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first and then Israel and Jordan and

then<00:12:00.959> now<00:12:01.279> through<00:12:01.480> the<00:12:01.600> Abraham<00:12:02.079> Accords<00:12:02.760> a

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then now through the Abraham Accords a

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then now through the Abraham Accords a

tapestry<00:12:04.279> and<00:12:04.399> the<00:12:04.680> tapestry<00:12:05.680> has<00:12:06.440> uh<00:12:06.560> it's

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tapestry and the tapestry has uh it's

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tapestry and the tapestry has uh it's

not<00:12:06.920> finished<00:12:07.600> uh<00:12:07.720> it's<00:12:08.079> partially<00:12:08.560> there<00:12:08.760> but

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not finished uh it's partially there but

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not finished uh it's partially there but

it<00:12:09.040> was<00:12:09.279> bringing<00:12:09.800> together<00:12:10.279> different

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it was bringing together different

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it was bringing together different

threads<00:12:11.279> different<00:12:12.200> um<00:12:12.800> types<00:12:13.040> of<00:12:13.240> government

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threads different um types of government

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threads different um types of government

different<00:12:14.920> uh<00:12:15.079> ethnicities<00:12:15.680> and<00:12:15.880> religions

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different uh ethnicities and religions

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different uh ethnicities and religions

in<00:12:17.839> uh<00:12:18.160> what<00:12:19.160> what<00:12:19.360> everyone<00:12:20.040> what<00:12:20.240> many

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in uh what what everyone what many

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in uh what what everyone what many

players<00:12:20.959> intended<00:12:21.399> to<00:12:21.560> be<00:12:22.279> um<00:12:23.279> you<00:12:23.399> know<00:12:23.680> a<00:12:23.880> way

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players intended to be um you know a way

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players intended to be um you know a way

if

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if

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if

countries<00:12:27.000> didn't<00:12:27.279> like<00:12:27.519> each<00:12:27.880> other<00:12:29.079> had

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countries didn't like each other had

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countries didn't like each other had

different

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different

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different

religions<00:12:31.120> uh<00:12:31.320> but<00:12:31.639> that<00:12:31.920> could<00:12:32.240> coexist<00:12:33.199> in<00:12:33.639> a

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religions uh but that could coexist in a

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religions uh but that could coexist in a

kind<00:12:34.000> of<00:12:34.639> cold<00:12:35.120> peace<00:12:36.120> and<00:12:36.399> my<00:12:36.560> fear<00:12:37.160> is<00:12:37.440> that

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kind of cold peace and my fear is that

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kind of cold peace and my fear is that

this<00:12:37.920> war<00:12:38.839> and<00:12:39.079> its<00:12:39.399> consequences<00:12:40.279> and<00:12:40.440> Ain<00:12:40.760> is

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this war and its consequences and Ain is

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this war and its consequences and Ain is

absolutely<00:12:41.480> right<00:12:41.639> the

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absolutely right the

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absolutely right the

consequences<00:12:43.360> are<00:12:43.560> are<00:12:43.839> just<00:12:44.480> huge<00:12:45.320> huge<00:12:45.760> huge

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consequences are are just huge huge huge

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consequences are are just huge huge huge

and<00:12:46.399> and<00:12:47.160> in<00:12:47.399> involve<00:12:47.839> far<00:12:48.040> more<00:12:48.360> than<00:12:49.160> the

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and and in involve far more than the

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and and in involve far more than the

fate<00:12:49.480> of<00:12:49.600> Israel<00:12:50.120> and<00:12:50.279> Hamas<00:12:51.079> that<00:12:51.240> that

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fate of Israel and Hamas that that

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fate of Israel and Hamas that that

tapestry<00:12:51.959> unravels<00:12:52.440> and<00:12:52.560> we<00:12:52.720> get<00:12:52.920> back<00:12:53.079> to

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tapestry unravels and we get back to

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tapestry unravels and we get back to

zero<00:12:53.639> and<00:12:53.760> we<00:12:53.880> have<00:12:54.000> to<00:12:54.120> start<00:12:54.399> with<00:12:54.639> pulling

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zero and we have to start with pulling

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zero and we have to start with pulling

the<00:12:55.040> first<00:12:55.279> two<00:12:55.440> threads<00:12:55.959> together<00:12:56.680> and

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the first two threads together and

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the first two threads together and

that's<00:12:57.120> how<00:12:57.320> dangerous<00:12:57.800> it<00:12:57.959> is<00:12:58.399> and<00:12:58.519> just<00:12:58.839> to

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that's how dangerous it is and just to

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that's how dangerous it is and just to

give<00:12:59.040> you<00:12:59.160> a<00:12:59.279> sampling<00:12:59.800> of<00:13:00.040> what<00:13:00.240> that<00:13:00.440> might

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give you a sampling of what that might

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give you a sampling of what that might

be<00:13:01.639> um<00:13:02.040> does<00:13:02.480> Israel<00:13:02.920> eliminate<00:13:03.639> Hamas<00:13:04.639> uh<00:13:04.880> at

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be um does Israel eliminate Hamas uh at

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be um does Israel eliminate Hamas uh at

least<00:13:05.760> you<00:13:05.880> know<00:13:06.040> shortterm<00:13:06.639> it's<00:13:06.880> leadership

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least you know shortterm it's leadership

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least you know shortterm it's leadership

it's<00:13:08.199> destroy<00:13:08.639> it<00:13:09.000> its<00:13:09.440> arsenals<00:13:10.440> uh<00:13:10.560> its

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it's destroy it its arsenals uh its

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it's destroy it its arsenals uh its

command<00:13:11.160> posts<00:13:11.480> and<00:13:11.639> so<00:13:11.839> forth<00:13:12.320> but<00:13:12.519> does<00:13:12.800> that

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command posts and so forth but does that

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command posts and so forth but does that

lead<00:13:13.279> to<00:13:14.240> um<00:13:14.480> you<00:13:14.600> know<00:13:14.959> a<00:13:15.160> different

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lead to um you know a different

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lead to um you know a different

Evolution<00:13:16.639> a<00:13:16.800> different<00:13:17.160> idea<00:13:17.519> a<00:13:17.639> different

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Evolution a different idea a different

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Evolution a different idea a different

group<00:13:18.440> emerging<00:13:19.360> does<00:13:19.839> this<00:13:20.519> uh<00:13:20.920> cause<00:13:21.360> such

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group emerging does this uh cause such

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group emerging does this uh cause such

anger<00:13:22.120> and<00:13:22.279> fury<00:13:22.800> among<00:13:23.519> Palestinians<00:13:24.079> in<00:13:24.240> the

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anger and fury among Palestinians in the

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anger and fury among Palestinians in the

West<00:13:24.600> Bank<00:13:25.519> that<00:13:26.279> uh<00:13:26.600> Israel<00:13:27.120> regains

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West Bank that uh Israel regains

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West Bank that uh Israel regains

temporarily<00:13:28.199> control<00:13:28.480> of<00:13:28.600> God<00:13:29.079> but<00:13:29.160> loses

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temporarily control of God but loses

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temporarily control of God but loses

West<00:13:29.839> Bank<00:13:30.160> as<00:13:30.279> a<00:13:30.440> potential<00:13:31.199> interlocutor

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West Bank as a potential interlocutor

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West Bank as a potential interlocutor

and<00:13:32.480> does<00:13:32.760> this<00:13:32.920> lead<00:13:33.920> uh<00:13:34.199> governments<00:13:34.600> in<00:13:34.760> the

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and does this lead uh governments in the

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and does this lead uh governments in the

region<00:13:35.199> that<00:13:35.320> have<00:13:35.480> tried<00:13:35.880> or<00:13:36.079> been<00:13:36.240> willing

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region that have tried or been willing

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region that have tried or been willing

to<00:13:37.000> talk<00:13:37.519> to<00:13:38.519> Israel<00:13:39.040> does<00:13:39.240> that<00:13:39.519> LE<00:13:39.760> make<00:13:39.920> it

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to talk to Israel does that LE make it

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to talk to Israel does that LE make it

impossible<00:13:40.680> for<00:13:40.839> them<00:13:41.040> to<00:13:41.199> move<00:13:41.399> forward<00:13:41.720> for

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impossible for them to move forward for

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impossible for them to move forward for

years<00:13:42.160> to<00:13:42.399> come<00:13:43.199> that<00:13:43.560> the<00:13:43.720> stakes<00:13:44.240> here<00:13:44.440> are

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years to come that the stakes here are

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years to come that the stakes here are

so<00:13:45.199> big<00:13:46.199> um<00:13:46.440> and<00:13:46.560> on<00:13:46.720> the<00:13:46.880> last<00:13:47.160> question<00:13:47.560> you

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so big um and on the last question you

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so big um and on the last question you

know<00:13:48.120> Iran<00:13:48.720> and<00:13:49.079> and<00:13:49.240> all<00:13:49.399> of<00:13:49.560> this<00:13:49.959> I<00:13:50.079> think

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know Iran and and all of this I think

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know Iran and and all of this I think

what's<00:13:50.480> really<00:13:50.759> interesting<00:13:51.240> is<00:13:51.399> that<00:13:51.600> the

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what's really interesting is that the

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what's really interesting is that the

militias<00:13:52.680> have<00:13:53.480> clearly<00:13:54.480> uh<00:13:54.680> in<00:13:55.360> Iraq<00:13:55.839> in

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militias have clearly uh in Iraq in

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militias have clearly uh in Iraq in

Yemen<00:13:56.639> in<00:13:57.079> Lebanon<00:13:58.079> have<00:13:58.199> been<00:13:58.399> probing

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Yemen in Lebanon have been probing

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Yemen in Lebanon have been probing

have<00:13:59.839> been<00:14:00.759> uh<00:14:01.040> the<00:14:01.160> United<00:14:01.519> States<00:14:02.160> forces<00:14:02.680> or

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have been uh the United States forces or

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have been uh the United States forces or

B<00:14:03.199> places<00:14:03.519> where<00:14:03.680> they<00:14:03.800> have<00:14:03.920> been<00:14:04.079> based<00:14:04.399> have

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B places where they have been based have

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B places where they have been based have

been<00:14:04.800> hit<00:14:05.800> TW<00:14:06.240> uh<00:14:06.399> multiple<00:14:06.880> times<00:14:07.199> in<00:14:07.560> Iraq

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been hit TW uh multiple times in Iraq

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been hit TW uh multiple times in Iraq

and<00:14:08.440> Syria<00:14:09.440> um<00:14:10.040> Iran's<00:14:10.800> allies<00:14:11.199> in<00:14:11.360> Yemen<00:14:11.800> have

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and Syria um Iran's allies in Yemen have

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and Syria um Iran's allies in Yemen have

have<00:14:13.040> uh<00:14:13.480> allegedly<00:14:14.279> targeted<00:14:15.279> Israel<00:14:15.680> with

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have uh allegedly targeted Israel with

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have uh allegedly targeted Israel with

missiles<00:14:16.120> and<00:14:16.279> drones<00:14:16.800> that<00:14:16.959> were<00:14:17.079> shot<00:14:17.360> down

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missiles and drones that were shot down

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missiles and drones that were shot down

by<00:14:17.759> the<00:14:17.839> us<00:14:18.120> and<00:14:18.279> one<00:14:18.519> by<00:14:18.680> Saudi<00:14:19.279> Arabia<00:14:20.360> um<00:14:21.360> uh

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by the us and one by Saudi Arabia um uh

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by the us and one by Saudi Arabia um uh

but<00:14:22.120> we<00:14:22.320> haven't<00:14:22.720> seen<00:14:23.120> the<00:14:23.360> escalation<00:14:24.079> yet

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but we haven't seen the escalation yet

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but we haven't seen the escalation yet

and<00:14:24.440> the<00:14:24.600> question<00:14:25.000> is<00:14:25.839> will<00:14:26.480> will<00:14:26.839> that

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and the question is will will that

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and the question is will will that

change<00:14:27.720> once<00:14:27.959> the<00:14:28.079> ground<00:14:28.320> assault<00:14:28.839> begins<00:14:29.560> or

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change once the ground assault begins or

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change once the ground assault begins or

are<00:14:30.120> there<00:14:30.399> certain<00:14:30.839> boundaries<00:14:31.720> that<00:14:32.600> that

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are there certain boundaries that that

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are there certain boundaries that that

are<00:14:33.199> set<00:14:33.560> in<00:14:33.720> terms<00:14:33.959> of<00:14:34.240> how<00:14:34.600> far<00:14:35.000> the

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are set in terms of how far the

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are set in terms of how far the

escalation<00:14:35.800> goes<00:14:36.079> it'll<00:14:36.399> escalate<00:14:37.000> by<00:14:37.199> all<00:14:37.360> of

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escalation goes it'll escalate by all of

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escalation goes it'll escalate by all of

them<00:14:38.000> they'll<00:14:38.199> be<00:14:38.440> probing<00:14:39.040> trying<00:14:39.279> to<00:14:39.440> get

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them they'll be probing trying to get

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them they'll be probing trying to get

the<00:14:39.839> US<00:14:40.240> the<00:14:40.680> raise<00:14:41.000> the<00:14:41.160> cost<00:14:41.399> of<00:14:41.560> the<00:14:41.639> US<00:14:41.839> says

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the US the raise the cost of the US says

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the US the raise the cost of the US says

oh<00:14:42.199> we'll<00:14:42.440> pull<00:14:42.680> our<00:14:42.880> forces<00:14:43.279> out<00:14:43.440> of<00:14:43.959> 900<00:14:44.480> out

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oh we'll pull our forces out of 900 out

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oh we'll pull our forces out of 900 out

of<00:14:45.240> Syria<00:14:45.759> and<00:14:46.399> some<00:14:46.600> of<00:14:46.720> the<00:14:46.839> 2500<00:14:47.519> out<00:14:47.680> of

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of Syria and some of the 2500 out of

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of Syria and some of the 2500 out of

Iraq<00:14:48.440> which<00:14:48.959> actually<00:14:49.199> plays<00:14:49.519> into<00:14:49.800> Iran's

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Iraq which actually plays into Iran's

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Iraq which actually plays into Iran's

hand<00:14:50.480> that<00:14:50.600> it<00:14:50.759> gains<00:14:51.199> side<00:14:51.519> benefits<00:14:52.360> from

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hand that it gains side benefits from

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hand that it gains side benefits from

this<00:14:52.920> conflict<00:14:53.839> so<00:14:54.440> uh<00:14:54.600> again<00:14:55.000> this<00:14:55.120> one<00:14:55.320> as

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this conflict so uh again this one as

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this conflict so uh again this one as

Aon<00:14:56.199> rightly<00:14:56.560> said<00:14:56.839> is<00:14:57.079> just<00:14:57.480> so<00:14:57.839> big<00:14:59.160> uh<00:14:59.480> and

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Aon rightly said is just so big uh and

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Aon rightly said is just so big uh and

will<00:15:00.000> play<00:15:00.240> out<00:15:00.519> potentially<00:15:00.880> for<00:15:01.079> years<00:15:01.240> to

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will play out potentially for years to

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will play out potentially for years to

come<00:15:01.920> even<00:15:02.320> if<00:15:02.600> Israel<00:15:03.399> makes<00:15:03.720> military

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come even if Israel makes military

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come even if Israel makes military

Headway<00:15:04.800> in<00:15:04.920> the<00:15:05.040> not<00:15:05.240> too<00:15:05.440> distant<00:15:05.720> future

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Headway in the not too distant future

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Headway in the not too distant future

against<00:15:06.680> Hamas<00:15:07.680> all<00:15:07.880> right<00:15:08.399> so<00:15:09.040> uh<00:15:09.240> we're

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against Hamas all right so uh we're

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against Hamas all right so uh we're

gonna<00:15:10.120> uh<00:15:10.800> ask<00:15:11.040> some<00:15:11.279> questions<00:15:11.880> and<00:15:12.199> and<00:15:12.480> and

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gonna uh ask some questions and and and

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gonna uh ask some questions and and and

and<00:15:12.959> see<00:15:13.600> uh<00:15:14.120> how<00:15:14.360> you<00:15:14.560> you<00:15:14.720> want<00:15:14.959> to<00:15:15.480> uh<00:15:16.079> uh

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and see uh how you you want to uh uh

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and see uh how you you want to uh uh

answer<00:15:16.880> them<00:15:17.480> I'm<00:15:17.600> getting<00:15:17.920> some<00:15:18.279> messages

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answer them I'm getting some messages

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answer them I'm getting some messages

from<00:15:20.160> uh<00:15:21.000> uh<00:15:21.600> the<00:15:22.240> team<00:15:23.240> that<00:15:23.480> prepares<00:15:23.920> these

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from uh uh the team that prepares these

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from uh uh the team that prepares these

so<00:15:24.320> I<00:15:24.480> don't<00:15:25.120> have<00:15:25.399> anything<00:15:25.800> from<00:15:26.079> the

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so I don't have anything from the

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so I don't have anything from the

audience<00:15:26.839> yet<00:15:27.759> but<00:15:28.279> let<00:15:28.399> me<00:15:28.759> ask<00:15:28.920> you<00:15:29.519> uh<00:15:30.040> uh

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audience yet but let me ask you uh uh

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audience yet but let me ask you uh uh

this<00:15:30.959> there<00:15:31.160> is<00:15:31.319> a<00:15:31.560> rumor<00:15:31.959> going<00:15:32.160> on<00:15:32.560> and<00:15:32.800> I<00:15:32.959> I'm

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this there is a rumor going on and I I'm

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this there is a rumor going on and I I'm

interested<00:15:33.560> what<00:15:33.720> what<00:15:33.839> the<00:15:33.959> two<00:15:34.120> of<00:15:34.199> you

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interested what what the two of you

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interested what what the two of you

think<00:15:35.600> that

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think that

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think that

um<00:15:37.720> what<00:15:38.120> what's<00:15:38.360> really<00:15:38.959> happening<00:15:39.959> because

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um what what's really happening because

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um what what's really happening because

the<00:15:40.560> Saudi<00:15:41.000> Israeli<00:15:41.600> possibility<00:15:42.319> was<00:15:42.959> was

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the Saudi Israeli possibility was was

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the Saudi Israeli possibility was was

hurt<00:15:43.720> so<00:15:44.120> badly<00:15:45.120> by<00:15:45.399> this<00:15:45.639> attack<00:15:46.079> that<00:15:46.319> if<00:15:47.319> uh

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hurt so badly by this attack that if uh

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hurt so badly by this attack that if uh

Israel<00:15:47.959> is<00:15:48.160> able<00:15:48.759> and<00:15:48.920> that<00:15:49.079> this<00:15:49.199> is<00:15:49.319> one<00:15:49.440> of

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Israel is able and that this is one of

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Israel is able and that this is one of

the<00:15:49.639> factors<00:15:50.160> with<00:15:50.319> for<00:15:50.519> Israel<00:15:51.000> that<00:15:51.279> if

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the factors with for Israel that if

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the factors with for Israel that if

Israel<00:15:52.720> manages<00:15:53.720> to<00:15:54.519> uh<00:15:54.800> destroy<00:15:55.720> Hamas<00:15:56.720> that

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Israel manages to uh destroy Hamas that

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Israel manages to uh destroy Hamas that

that<00:15:57.120> will<00:15:57.440> improve<00:15:57.880> the<00:15:58.079> possibility<00:15:58.680> ities

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that will improve the possibility ities

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that will improve the possibility ities

of<00:16:00.399> a

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of a

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of a

uh<00:16:03.319> of<00:16:03.440> a<00:16:03.639> Saudi<00:16:04.519> Israeli<00:16:05.519> uh<00:16:06.040> new<00:16:06.680> uh

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uh of a Saudi Israeli uh new uh

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uh of a Saudi Israeli uh new uh

relationship<00:16:07.800> and<00:16:08.480> and<00:16:08.680> of<00:16:08.839> course<00:16:09.519> hurting

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relationship and and of course hurting

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relationship and and of course hurting

uh<00:16:11.360> hurting<00:16:11.839> Iran<00:16:12.560> it<00:16:13.000> actually<00:16:14.000> increases

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uh hurting Iran it actually increases

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uh hurting Iran it actually increases

their<00:16:14.800> Rel<00:16:15.120> their

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their Rel their

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their Rel their

relationship<00:16:16.920> uh<00:16:17.839> uh<00:16:18.639> uh<00:16:19.040> I<00:16:19.240> also<00:16:19.519> have

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relationship uh uh uh I also have

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relationship uh uh uh I also have

another<00:16:20.120> question<00:16:20.720> I<00:16:20.800> like<00:16:20.959> to<00:16:21.079> ask<00:16:21.279> more<00:16:21.440> than

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another question I like to ask more than

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another question I like to ask more than

one<00:16:21.800> so<00:16:22.000> you<00:16:22.120> could<00:16:22.279> skip<00:16:22.600> one<00:16:23.480> uh<00:16:23.800> and<00:16:24.040> that<00:16:24.319> is

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one so you could skip one uh and that is

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one so you could skip one uh and that is

um<00:16:25.639> this<00:16:25.800> comes<00:16:26.120> from<00:16:26.560> Mary<00:16:27.440> uh<00:16:27.839> Mary<00:16:28.160> elen

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um this comes from Mary uh Mary elen

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um this comes from Mary uh Mary elen

hegland<00:16:29.519> professor<00:16:29.959> ameritus<00:16:30.440> of<00:16:30.600> Santa<00:16:30.959> clar

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hegland professor ameritus of Santa clar

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hegland professor ameritus of Santa clar

university<00:16:31.959> in<00:16:32.079> the<00:16:32.199> United<00:16:32.519> States<00:16:33.120> do<00:16:33.240> you

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university in the United States do you

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university in the United States do you

think<00:16:33.680> Netanyahu<00:16:34.399> Bears<00:16:34.759> any<00:16:35.040> responsibility

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think Netanyahu Bears any responsibility

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think Netanyahu Bears any responsibility

for<00:16:36.120> all<00:16:36.240> of<00:16:36.399> this<00:16:36.680> by<00:16:36.880> promoting<00:16:37.480> illegal

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for all of this by promoting illegal

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for all of this by promoting illegal

Israeli<00:16:39.000> settlements<00:16:39.680> on<00:16:40.120> Palestinian<00:16:41.199> land

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Israeli settlements on Palestinian land

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Israeli settlements on Palestinian land

so<00:16:43.040> uh<00:16:43.399> why<00:16:43.519> don't<00:16:43.680> we<00:16:43.800> start<00:16:44.040> with<00:16:44.279> Aaron<00:16:45.279> uh

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so uh why don't we start with Aaron uh

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so uh why don't we start with Aaron uh

since<00:16:45.639> he<00:16:45.800> started<00:16:46.120> the<00:16:46.279> first<00:16:46.519> question<00:16:46.880> has

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since he started the first question has

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since he started the first question has

had<00:16:47.199> a<00:16:47.360> moment<00:16:47.600> to<00:16:47.800> rest<00:16:48.040> for<00:16:49.000> uh<00:16:49.440> uh<00:16:49.839> and<00:16:50.319> there

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had a moment to rest for uh uh and there

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had a moment to rest for uh uh and there

are<00:16:50.600> two<00:16:50.839> questions<00:16:51.240> you<00:16:51.360> can<00:16:51.800> answer<00:16:52.519> one<00:16:52.800> or

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are two questions you can answer one or

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are two questions you can answer one or

both<00:16:53.639> Aon<00:16:54.639> uh<00:16:54.759> on<00:16:55.000> Saudi<00:16:55.360> Arabia<00:16:55.959> I<00:16:56.079> think<00:16:56.639> in

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both Aon uh on Saudi Arabia I think in

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both Aon uh on Saudi Arabia I think in

Israeli<00:16:57.319> Politics<00:16:57.839> the<00:16:58.000> famous<00:16:58.519> saw<00:16:58.839> is<00:16:59.079> that

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Israeli Politics the famous saw is that

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Israeli Politics the famous saw is that

you<00:16:59.360> can<00:16:59.519> be<00:16:59.680> dead<00:16:59.880> or<00:17:00.079> dead<00:17:00.240> and<00:17:00.440> buried<00:17:01.440> I

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you can be dead or dead and buried I

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you can be dead or dead and buried I

think<00:17:01.759> that<00:17:01.959> the<00:17:02.240> US<00:17:03.000> Saudi<00:17:03.440> Israeli

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think that the US Saudi Israeli

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think that the US Saudi Israeli

normalization<00:17:04.679> process<00:17:05.039> is<00:17:05.280> just<00:17:05.679> dead<00:17:06.679> it's

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normalization process is just dead it's

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normalization process is just dead it's

not<00:17:07.039> Clos<00:17:07.360> for<00:17:07.520> the<00:17:07.679> season<00:17:08.160> but<00:17:08.439> I<00:17:08.520> would<00:17:08.720> note

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not Clos for the season but I would note

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not Clos for the season but I would note

this<00:17:10.280> that<00:17:10.439> if<00:17:10.600> in<00:17:10.799> fact<00:17:11.000> the<00:17:11.160> destruction<00:17:11.600> of

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this that if in fact the destruction of

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this that if in fact the destruction of

Hamas<00:17:12.199> occurs<00:17:12.679> and<00:17:13.280> that's<00:17:13.439> something<00:17:13.720> we

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Hamas occurs and that's something we

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Hamas occurs and that's something we

should<00:17:14.000> talk<00:17:14.240> about<00:17:14.760> Hamas<00:17:15.240> is<00:17:16.000> has<00:17:16.120> an

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should talk about Hamas is has an

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should talk about Hamas is has an

administrative<00:17:17.000> governing<00:17:17.559> Sovereign

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administrative governing Sovereign

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administrative governing Sovereign

structure<00:17:18.640> it<00:17:18.799> has<00:17:18.919> a<00:17:19.039> military<00:17:19.679> structure

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structure it has a military structure

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structure it has a military structure

it's<00:17:20.919> also<00:17:21.400> an<00:17:21.600> the<00:17:21.760> organizational

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it's also an the organizational

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it's also an the organizational

embodiment<00:17:22.919> of<00:17:23.039> an<00:17:23.240> idea<00:17:23.760> and<00:17:23.880> it<00:17:24.039> has<00:17:24.199> deep

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embodiment of an idea and it has deep

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embodiment of an idea and it has deep

root<00:17:24.839> social<00:17:25.199> and<00:17:25.360> economic<00:17:26.000> through<00:17:26.240> the

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root social and economic through the

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root social and economic through the

dawa<00:17:27.679> the<00:17:27.839> so-called<00:17:28.640> calling<00:17:29.799> to<00:17:30.799> uh

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dawa the so-called calling to uh

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dawa the so-called calling to uh

Palestinians<00:17:32.919> in<00:17:33.320> in<00:17:33.600> Gaza<00:17:34.000> since<00:17:34.200> the<00:17:34.320> early

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Palestinians in in Gaza since the early

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Palestinians in in Gaza since the early

80s<00:17:36.000> so<00:17:36.440> the<00:17:36.600> destruction<00:17:37.080> of<00:17:37.320> Hamas<00:17:38.200> and

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80s so the destruction of Hamas and

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80s so the destruction of Hamas and

Robin's<00:17:38.799> point<00:17:39.080> is<00:17:39.360> is<00:17:39.559> right<00:17:39.760> on<00:17:40.280> is<00:17:40.400> going<00:17:40.559> to

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Robin's point is is right on is going to

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Robin's point is is right on is going to

create<00:17:41.640> destruction<00:17:42.080> of<00:17:42.919> the<00:17:43.120> death<00:17:43.320> and

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create destruction of the death and

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create destruction of the death and

destruction<00:17:44.640> in

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destruction in

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destruction in

Gaza<00:17:46.520> largely<00:17:47.120> against<00:17:47.840> Palestinians

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Gaza largely against Palestinians

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Gaza largely against Palestinians

civilians<00:17:50.360> is<00:17:50.640> going<00:17:50.960> to<00:17:51.760> undermine<00:17:52.760> the

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civilians is going to undermine the

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civilians is going to undermine the

prospects<00:17:53.520> of

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prospects of

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prospects of

legitimizing<00:17:55.440> uh<00:17:55.600> any<00:17:55.919> Palestinian

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legitimizing uh any Palestinian

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legitimizing uh any Palestinian

interlocutor<00:17:57.760> that<00:17:57.919> is<00:17:58.440> wants<00:17:58.720> to<00:17:59.080> presume<00:17:59.559> to

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interlocutor that is wants to presume to

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interlocutor that is wants to presume to

negotiate<00:18:00.919> in<00:18:01.080> the<00:18:01.200> wake<00:18:01.440> of<00:18:02.039> this<00:18:03.039> uh<00:18:03.760> MBs<00:18:04.559> is

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negotiate in the wake of this uh MBs is

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negotiate in the wake of this uh MBs is

38<00:18:05.240> years

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38 years

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38 years

old<00:18:07.400> uh<00:18:07.600> assuming<00:18:08.000> he<00:18:08.159> gets<00:18:08.320> to<00:18:08.440> be<00:18:08.600> king<00:18:08.799> of

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old uh assuming he gets to be king of

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old uh assuming he gets to be king of

Saudi<00:18:09.280> Arabia<00:18:09.640> he<00:18:09.760> will<00:18:09.880> rule<00:18:10.200> Saudi<00:18:10.559> Arabia

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Saudi Arabia he will rule Saudi Arabia

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Saudi Arabia he will rule Saudi Arabia

arguably<00:18:11.400> for<00:18:11.640> 50<00:18:12.159> or<00:18:12.400> more<00:18:12.760> years<00:18:13.600> he<00:18:13.720> will

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arguably for 50 or more years he will

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arguably for 50 or more years he will

see<00:18:14.200> during<00:18:14.600> those<00:18:14.799> 50<00:18:15.200> years<00:18:16.039> six<00:18:16.360> or<00:18:16.640> seven

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see during those 50 years six or seven

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see during those 50 years six or seven

maybe<00:18:17.960> more<00:18:18.960> American<00:18:19.600> Presidents<00:18:20.600> come<00:18:21.559> and

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maybe more American Presidents come and

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maybe more American Presidents come and

go<00:18:23.120> he<00:18:23.240> is<00:18:23.440> pursuing<00:18:23.840> a<00:18:24.120> 360<00:18:25.120> degree<00:18:25.440> foreign

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go he is pursuing a 360 degree foreign

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go he is pursuing a 360 degree foreign

policy<00:18:27.360> not<00:18:27.600> tethering<00:18:28.039> himself<00:18:28.559> to<00:18:28.720> the

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policy not tethering himself to the

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policy not tethering himself to the

United<00:18:29.280> States<00:18:30.280> he<00:18:30.440> sees<00:18:30.840> China<00:18:31.360> Rising<00:18:32.360> in<00:18:32.480> a

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United States he sees China Rising in a

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United States he sees China Rising in a

Saudi<00:18:33.120> sense<00:18:33.480> which<00:18:33.600> is<00:18:33.840> important<00:18:34.400> he's<00:18:34.600> not

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Saudi sense which is important he's not

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Saudi sense which is important he's not

going<00:18:35.039> to<00:18:35.559> abandon<00:18:36.000> Russia<00:18:36.400> because<00:18:36.559> of<00:18:36.679> the

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going to abandon Russia because of the

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going to abandon Russia because of the

OPEC<00:18:37.400> plus<00:18:38.400> I<00:18:38.520> think<00:18:38.919> MBS<00:18:39.520> will<00:18:39.799> survey<00:18:40.280> the

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OPEC plus I think MBS will survey the

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