The-Hamas-Attack-and-Its-Impact-on-the-Region—-CMED-Roundtable-Series,-Discussion-1-t2-qt2.m4a
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hello<00:00:00.240> to<00:00:00.440> everyone<00:00:01.240> from<00:00:01.520> around<00:00:01.839> the<00:00:02.040> world
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hello to everyone from around the world
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hello to everyone from around the world
and<00:00:03.399> thank<00:00:03.600> you<00:00:03.919> for<00:00:04.359> joining<00:00:04.799> us<00:00:05.640> uh<00:00:05.759> today
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and thank you for joining us uh today
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and thank you for joining us uh today
this<00:00:06.319> is<00:00:06.480> the<00:00:06.640> first<00:00:06.919> of<00:00:07.120> a<00:00:07.720> series<00:00:08.599> that<00:00:08.840> we
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this is the first of a series that we
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this is the first of a series that we
have<00:00:10.040> at<00:00:10.240> CED<00:00:11.040> entitled<00:00:12.040> the
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have at CED entitled the
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have at CED entitled the
Hamas<00:00:14.320> uh<00:00:15.240> attack<00:00:15.679> and<00:00:15.839> its<00:00:16.199> impact<00:00:17.119> on<00:00:17.720> uh<00:00:17.840> the
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Hamas uh attack and its impact on uh the
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Hamas uh attack and its impact on uh the
region<00:00:19.400> uh<00:00:19.680> before<00:00:19.960> we<00:00:20.160> begin<00:00:20.920> uh<00:00:21.080> I'd<00:00:21.240> like<00:00:21.439> to
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region uh before we begin uh I'd like to
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region uh before we begin uh I'd like to
take<00:00:21.960> a<00:00:22.119> moment<00:00:22.359> to<00:00:22.519> thank<00:00:22.760> the<00:00:22.840> UCL
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take a moment to thank the UCL
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take a moment to thank the UCL
Department<00:00:23.640> of<00:00:23.720> political<00:00:24.160> science<00:00:24.599> for
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Department of political science for
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Department of political science for
co-sponsoring<00:00:25.599> our<00:00:25.800> discussion<00:00:26.199> today<00:00:26.560> as
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co-sponsoring our discussion today as
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co-sponsoring our discussion today as
well<00:00:26.880> as<00:00:27.080> the<00:00:27.519> UCI<00:00:28.160> International<00:00:28.800> Institute
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well as the UCI International Institute
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well as the UCI International Institute
for<00:00:29.439> helping<00:00:29.679> to<00:00:30.000> promote<00:00:30.320> the<00:00:31.119> this<00:00:31.359> vital
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for helping to promote the this vital
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for helping to promote the this vital
Round<00:00:32.640> Round<00:00:33.000> Table<00:00:33.440> series<00:00:34.280> before<00:00:34.559> the
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Round Round Table series before the
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Round Round Table series before the
event<00:00:35.000> begins<00:00:35.440> please<00:00:35.719> note<00:00:36.440> the<00:00:36.600> following
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event begins please note the following
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event begins please note the following
important<00:00:37.840> information<00:00:38.840> what<00:00:39.239> uh<00:00:39.480> which<00:00:39.640> I
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important information what uh which I
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important information what uh which I
will<00:00:40.000> go<00:00:40.559> uh<00:00:40.920> quickly<00:00:41.480> uh<00:00:41.920> on<00:00:42.600> so<00:00:42.840> we<00:00:42.960> can<00:00:43.120> start
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will go uh quickly uh on so we can start
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will go uh quickly uh on so we can start
number<00:00:44.239> one<00:00:44.680> while<00:00:44.920> you<00:00:45.039> can<00:00:45.160> see<00:00:45.360> us<00:00:45.559> we
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number one while you can see us we
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number one while you can see us we
cannot<00:00:46.120> see<00:00:46.399> or<00:00:46.640> hear<00:00:46.920> you<00:00:47.239> you<00:00:47.360> should<00:00:47.559> know
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cannot see or hear you you should know
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cannot see or hear you you should know
that<00:00:47.960> we<00:00:48.079> are<00:00:48.280> recording<00:00:48.680> the<00:00:48.879> presentation
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that we are recording the presentation
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that we are recording the presentation
today<00:00:50.160> and<00:00:50.320> the<00:00:50.480> video<00:00:50.800> will<00:00:50.960> be<00:00:51.160> available<00:00:51.600> on
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today and the video will be available on
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today and the video will be available on
the<00:00:51.800> seid<00:00:52.320> website<00:00:52.760> YouTube<00:00:53.199> and<00:00:53.359> our<00:00:54.320> uh
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the seid website YouTube and our uh
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the seid website YouTube and our uh
Facebook<00:00:55.079> page<00:00:55.359> soon<00:00:55.640> after<00:00:55.920> the<00:00:56.120> event<00:00:57.039> if
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Facebook page soon after the event if
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Facebook page soon after the event if
you<00:00:57.280> are<00:00:57.520> joining<00:00:58.000> us<00:00:58.680> using<00:00:59.039> Zoom<00:00:59.920> Zoom
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you are joining us using Zoom Zoom
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you are joining us using Zoom Zoom
please<00:01:00.680> note<00:01:01.680> the<00:01:02.320> chat<00:01:02.760> window<00:01:03.160> at<00:01:03.320> the
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please note the chat window at the
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please note the chat window at the
bottom<00:01:03.760> of<00:01:03.879> the<00:01:04.040> screen<00:01:04.839> we<00:01:05.000> will<00:01:05.159> share
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bottom of the screen we will share
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bottom of the screen we will share
announcements<00:01:06.000> during<00:01:06.280> the<00:01:06.439> talk<00:01:06.760> with<00:01:06.920> you
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announcements during the talk with you
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announcements during the talk with you
here<00:01:08.200> however<00:01:08.960> you<00:01:09.159> will<00:01:10.000> not<00:01:11.000> be<00:01:11.200> able<00:01:11.479> to<00:01:11.680> add
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here however you will not be able to add
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here however you will not be able to add
comments<00:01:12.960> in<00:01:13.119> the<00:01:13.320> chat<00:01:13.640> box<00:01:14.439> if<00:01:14.560> you<00:01:14.680> have
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comments in the chat box if you have
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comments in the chat box if you have
questions<00:01:15.240> for<00:01:15.439> our<00:01:15.759> speakers<00:01:16.759> please<00:01:17.479> uh
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questions for our speakers please uh
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questions for our speakers please uh
type<00:01:17.960> them<00:01:18.200> in<00:01:18.400> the<00:01:18.600> Q&A<00:01:19.360> window<00:01:19.920> also<00:01:20.240> at<00:01:20.360> the
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type them in the Q&A window also at the
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type them in the Q&A window also at the
bottom<00:01:20.840> of<00:01:20.960> your<00:01:21.159> screen<00:01:21.840> you<00:01:21.960> can<00:01:22.200> ask<00:01:22.560> one<00:01:23.119> or
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bottom of your screen you can ask one or
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bottom of your screen you can ask one or
both<00:01:23.920> of<00:01:24.079> our<00:01:24.520> speakers<00:01:25.040> be<00:01:25.159> sure<00:01:25.400> to<00:01:25.600> include
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both of our speakers be sure to include
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both of our speakers be sure to include
your<00:01:26.159> name<00:01:26.400> in<00:01:26.560> your<00:01:26.799> country<00:01:27.520> and<00:01:27.759> or
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your name in your country and or
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your name in your country and or
affiliation<00:01:29.240> that<00:01:29.400> is<00:01:29.920> critical<00:01:30.479> to<00:01:30.680> include
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affiliation that is critical to include
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affiliation that is critical to include
your<00:01:31.200> name<00:01:31.520> and<00:01:31.720> your<00:01:32.000> country<00:01:32.759> and<00:01:33.000> your
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your name and your country and your
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your name and your country and your
affiliation<00:01:34.240> and<00:01:34.399> note<00:01:34.640> that<00:01:34.759> your<00:01:34.920> name
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affiliation and note that your name
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affiliation and note that your name
country<00:01:35.520> and<00:01:35.680> or<00:01:35.840> affiliation<00:01:36.399> will<00:01:36.560> be
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country and or affiliation will be
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country and or affiliation will be
announced<00:01:37.159> aloud<00:01:38.040> along<00:01:38.439> with<00:01:38.640> your<00:01:39.119> question
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announced aloud along with your question
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announced aloud along with your question
only<00:01:40.360> the<00:01:40.520> cat<00:01:41.000> team<00:01:41.240> will<00:01:41.399> be<00:01:41.560> able<00:01:41.720> to<00:01:41.840> see
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only the cat team will be able to see
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only the cat team will be able to see
your<00:01:42.280> questions<00:01:42.720> in<00:01:42.840> some<00:01:43.079> cases<00:01:43.640> we<00:01:43.759> will
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your questions in some cases we will
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your questions in some cases we will
answer<00:01:44.280> questions<00:01:44.600> and<00:01:44.840> writing<00:01:45.479> in<00:01:45.640> the<00:01:45.880> Q&A
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answer questions and writing in the Q&A
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answer questions and writing in the Q&A
window<00:01:46.600> for<00:01:46.799> others<00:01:47.079> to<00:01:47.360> see<00:01:48.360> please<00:01:49.079> keep
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window for others to see please keep
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window for others to see please keep
your<00:01:50.040> questions<00:01:50.640> concise<00:01:51.159> so<00:01:51.360> we<00:01:51.479> can<00:01:51.719> answer
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your questions concise so we can answer
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your questions concise so we can answer
as<00:01:52.280> many<00:01:52.520> questions<00:01:52.920> as<00:01:53.360> possible<00:01:54.360> and<00:01:54.560> if
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as many questions as possible and if
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as many questions as possible and if
you're<00:01:55.000> joining<00:01:55.360> us<00:01:55.640> on<00:01:55.799> the<00:01:56.000> YouTube
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you're joining us on the YouTube
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you're joining us on the YouTube
platform<00:01:57.039> please<00:01:57.240> note<00:01:57.479> that<00:01:57.600> we<00:01:57.719> will<00:01:57.920> not<00:01:58.159> be
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platform please note that we will not be
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platform please note that we will not be
replying<00:01:59.079> to<00:01:59.240> any<00:01:59.439> comment<00:01:59.799> answer<00:02:00.560> questions
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replying to any comment answer questions
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replying to any comment answer questions
uh<00:02:02.119> there<00:02:02.759> I<00:02:03.520> uh<00:02:04.520> want<00:02:04.759> to<00:02:05.399> begin<00:02:05.759> by
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uh there I uh want to begin by
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uh there I uh want to begin by
introducing<00:02:07.520> uh<00:02:07.880> two<00:02:08.560> two<00:02:09.360> speakers<00:02:10.360> both<00:02:10.560> of
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introducing uh two two speakers both of
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introducing uh two two speakers both of
whom<00:02:11.760> uh<00:02:12.520> I<00:02:12.720> just<00:02:13.360> think<00:02:13.640> are<00:02:14.280> fantastic<00:02:15.280> and
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whom uh I just think are fantastic and
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whom uh I just think are fantastic and
they<00:02:15.599> are<00:02:15.879> two<00:02:16.400> of<00:02:17.120> the<00:02:17.480> most<00:02:17.920> important
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they are two of the most important
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they are two of the most important
people<00:02:19.280> at<00:02:19.480> the<00:02:19.640> kind<00:02:19.760> of<00:02:19.959> Crisis<00:02:20.599> we<00:02:20.720> are
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people at the kind of Crisis we are
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people at the kind of Crisis we are
having<00:02:21.239> now<00:02:22.000> in<00:02:22.120> the<00:02:22.319> world<00:02:23.200> and<00:02:23.720> I<00:02:23.879> just<00:02:24.080> can't
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having now in the world and I just can't
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having now in the world and I just can't
thank<00:02:24.560> them<00:02:24.800> enough<00:02:25.720> for<00:02:26.040> having<00:02:26.720> uh<00:02:27.000> uh
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thank them enough for having uh uh
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thank them enough for having uh uh
joined<00:02:27.480> us<00:02:27.640> so<00:02:27.760> we're<00:02:27.879> going<00:02:28.000> to<00:02:28.120> be<00:02:28.319> quick<00:02:29.239> uh
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joined us so we're going to be quick uh
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joined us so we're going to be quick uh
so<00:02:29.560> we<00:02:29.959> get<00:02:30.040> to<00:02:30.200> as<00:02:30.360> many<00:02:31.319> uh<00:02:31.760> uh<00:02:32.200> uh<00:02:32.560> questions
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so we get to as many uh uh uh questions
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so we get to as many uh uh uh questions
and<00:02:34.000> answers<00:02:35.000> uh<00:02:35.360> as<00:02:35.519> we<00:02:35.760> can<00:02:36.040> in<00:02:36.239> this<00:02:36.400> limited
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and answers uh as we can in this limited
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and answers uh as we can in this limited
time<00:02:37.480> we<00:02:37.680> have<00:02:38.040> Aaron<00:02:38.360> David<00:02:38.959> Miller<00:02:39.560> is<00:02:40.560> uh
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time we have Aaron David Miller is uh
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time we have Aaron David Miller is uh
has<00:02:41.239> all<00:02:41.519> sorts<00:02:42.440> of<00:02:43.000> uh<00:02:43.440> positions<00:02:44.040> we<00:02:44.200> love
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has all sorts of uh positions we love
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has all sorts of uh positions we love
watching<00:02:44.760> him<00:02:45.400> wife<00:02:45.599> and<00:02:45.720> I<00:02:46.040> love<00:02:46.319> watching
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watching him wife and I love watching
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watching him wife and I love watching
him<00:02:46.800> on<00:02:47.400> uh<00:02:47.560> TV<00:02:47.920> he's<00:02:48.040> a<00:02:48.200> senior<00:02:48.480> fellow<00:02:48.840> at<00:02:48.959> the
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him on uh TV he's a senior fellow at the
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him on uh TV he's a senior fellow at the
Carnegie<00:02:49.560> Endowment<00:02:50.040> for<00:02:50.159> International
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Carnegie Endowment for International
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Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace<00:02:51.000> he's<00:02:51.200> always<00:02:51.440> asking<00:02:51.760> me<00:02:52.000> to<00:02:53.000> watch
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Peace he's always asking me to watch
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Peace he's always asking me to watch
some<00:02:53.800> of<00:02:53.959> his<00:02:54.159> material<00:02:54.640> he<00:02:54.760> has<00:02:54.920> written<00:02:55.319> five
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some of his material he has written five
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some of his material he has written five
books<00:02:56.480> uh<00:02:56.599> he<00:02:56.760> of<00:02:56.920> course<00:02:57.519> between<00:02:57.840> 1978<00:02:58.599> and
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books uh he of course between 1978 and
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books uh he of course between 1978 and
203<00:02:59.959> uh<00:03:00.120> served<00:03:00.480> as<00:03:00.640> the<00:03:01.040> state<00:03:01.360> department<00:03:01.920> as
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203 uh served as the state department as
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203 uh served as the state department as
a<00:03:02.319> historian<00:03:03.080> he's<00:03:03.280> got<00:03:03.480> loads<00:03:03.840> and<00:03:04.040> loads<00:03:04.519> of
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a historian he's got loads and loads of
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a historian he's got loads and loads of
Articles<00:03:05.360> he's<00:03:06.159> uh<00:03:06.440> as<00:03:06.560> I<00:03:06.720> say<00:03:07.040> on<00:03:07.799> TV<00:03:08.200> Etc<00:03:09.200> uh
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Articles he's uh as I say on TV Etc uh
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Articles he's uh as I say on TV Etc uh
all<00:03:09.920> the<00:03:10.120> time<00:03:10.640> Robin<00:03:11.000> Wright<00:03:11.879> is<00:03:12.599> uh
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all the time Robin Wright is uh
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all the time Robin Wright is uh
certainly<00:03:13.959> one<00:03:14.120> of<00:03:14.239> the<00:03:14.440> top<00:03:14.760> authors<00:03:15.200> about
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certainly one of the top authors about
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certainly one of the top authors about
the<00:03:15.560> kind<00:03:15.760> of<00:03:15.920> issues<00:03:16.200> we're<00:03:16.640> facing<00:03:18.000> uh
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the kind of issues we're facing uh
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the kind of issues we're facing uh
seeing<00:03:20.159> in<00:03:20.319> the<00:03:20.480> country<00:03:20.959> she's<00:03:21.959> uh<00:03:22.239> at<00:03:22.360> the
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seeing in the country she's uh at the
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seeing in the country she's uh at the
New<00:03:22.720> Yorker<00:03:23.159> she's<00:03:23.440> a<00:03:23.720> senior<00:03:23.920> fellow<00:03:24.200> at<00:03:24.360> the
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New Yorker she's a senior fellow at the
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New Yorker she's a senior fellow at the
US<00:03:24.799> Institute<00:03:25.200> of<00:03:25.319> Peace<00:03:25.680> and<00:03:26.120> the<00:03:26.280> wood
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US Institute of Peace and the wood
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US Institute of Peace and the wood
Wilson<00:03:27.120> Center<00:03:28.040> more<00:03:28.319> she's<00:03:28.640> been<00:03:28.959> reported
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Wilson Center more she's been reported
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Wilson Center more she's been reported
for<00:03:29.439> more
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for more
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for more
140<00:03:31.720> uh<00:03:32.159> uh<00:03:32.560> countries<00:03:32.920> for<00:03:33.080> the<00:03:33.200> New<00:03:33.680> Yorker
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140 uh uh countries for the New Yorker
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140 uh uh countries for the New Yorker
uh<00:03:35.439> so<00:03:36.439> I<00:03:36.599> just<00:03:36.720> want<00:03:36.840> to<00:03:37.000> say<00:03:37.360> again<00:03:38.360> two<00:03:38.560> of
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uh so I just want to say again two of
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uh so I just want to say again two of
you<00:03:39.159> thank<00:03:39.319> you<00:03:39.480> so<00:03:39.680> much<00:03:39.840> for<00:03:40.040> joining<00:03:40.439> us<00:03:41.000> it
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you thank you so much for joining us it
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you thank you so much for joining us it
means<00:03:41.920> so<00:03:42.200> much<00:03:42.439> to<00:03:42.720> us<00:03:43.159> so<00:03:43.400> much<00:03:43.640> to<00:03:43.840> me<00:03:44.480> and
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means so much to us so much to me and
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means so much to us so much to me and
we're<00:03:44.720> g<00:03:44.799> to<00:03:44.920> start<00:03:45.159> with<00:03:45.280> Aaron<00:03:45.599> David
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we're g to start with Aaron David
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we're g to start with Aaron David
Miller<00:03:47.439> Steve<00:03:47.799> thanks<00:03:48.000> so<00:03:48.200> much<00:03:48.400> it's<00:03:48.599> really
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Miller Steve thanks so much it's really
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Miller Steve thanks so much it's really
an<00:03:48.959> honor<00:03:49.640> to<00:03:49.760> be<00:03:49.959> here<00:03:50.120> with<00:03:50.239> you<00:03:50.480> and<00:03:50.720> and
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an honor to be here with you and and
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an honor to be here with you and and
with<00:03:51.120> Robin
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with Robin
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with Robin
um<00:03:53.599> uh<00:03:53.920> who<00:03:54.640> grew<00:03:54.879> up<00:03:55.000> in<00:03:55.159> an<00:03:55.360> arbor<00:03:56.200> uh<00:03:56.319> we
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um uh who grew up in an arbor uh we
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um uh who grew up in an arbor uh we
share<00:03:56.720> a<00:03:57.239> similar<00:03:58.239> uh<00:03:58.480> love<00:03:58.760> affair<00:03:59.079> with<00:03:59.239> the
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share a similar uh love affair with the
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share a similar uh love affair with the
Mich
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Mich
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Mich
Wolverines<00:04:01.200> Robin<00:04:01.560> is<00:04:01.680> one<00:04:01.799> of<00:04:01.920> the<00:04:02.079> most
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Wolverines Robin is one of the most
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Wolverines Robin is one of the most
talented<00:04:02.879> journalists<00:04:03.400> and<00:04:03.599> analysts<00:04:04.040> that<00:04:04.200> I
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talented journalists and analysts that I
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talented journalists and analysts that I
know<00:04:05.120> and<00:04:05.519> U<00:04:05.920> it's<00:04:06.159> always<00:04:06.519> wonderful<00:04:07.000> to<00:04:07.239> to
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know and U it's always wonderful to to
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know and U it's always wonderful to to
be<00:04:07.519> with<00:04:07.720> her<00:04:08.400> I<00:04:08.599> I<00:04:08.840> I<00:04:08.920> was<00:04:09.120> going<00:04:09.239> to<00:04:09.439> just
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be with her I I I was going to just
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be with her I I I was going to just
start<00:04:09.879> Steve<00:04:10.319> with<00:04:10.560> three<00:04:10.879> brief
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start Steve with three brief
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start Steve with three brief
comments<00:04:12.920> um<00:04:13.799> not<00:04:14.079> necessarily<00:04:14.480> on<00:04:14.640> the
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comments um not necessarily on the
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comments um not necessarily on the
crisis<00:04:15.200> itself<00:04:15.680> but<00:04:16.280> three<00:04:16.759> sort<00:04:17.000> of<00:04:17.239> comments
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crisis itself but three sort of comments
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crisis itself but three sort of comments
that<00:04:17.759> have<00:04:17.880> helped<00:04:18.239> me<00:04:19.239> these<00:04:19.519> last<00:04:19.759> several
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that have helped me these last several
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that have helped me these last several
weeks<00:04:20.840> uh<00:04:21.120> sort<00:04:21.359> of<00:04:21.519> look<00:04:21.680> at<00:04:21.880> this<00:04:22.040> and
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weeks uh sort of look at this and
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weeks uh sort of look at this and
process<00:04:22.919> it<00:04:23.160> number<00:04:23.400> one<00:04:23.720> is<00:04:24.320> humility<00:04:25.320> what
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process it number one is humility what
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process it number one is humility what
we<00:04:25.600> know<00:04:25.800> about<00:04:26.040> this<00:04:26.280> crisis<00:04:27.080> un<00:04:28.080> unfolding
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we know about this crisis un unfolding
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we know about this crisis un unfolding
um<00:04:29.360> great
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um great
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um great
L<00:04:31.520> um<00:04:32.360> is<00:04:32.600> diminished<00:04:33.120> by<00:04:33.280> what<00:04:33.440> we<00:04:33.600> do<00:04:33.800> not
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L um is diminished by what we do not
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L um is diminished by what we do not
know<00:04:34.840> partly<00:04:35.199> it's<00:04:35.320> a<00:04:35.520> function<00:04:35.840> of<00:04:35.960> a<00:04:36.199> fast
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know partly it's a function of a fast
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know partly it's a function of a fast
moving<00:04:36.880> media<00:04:37.479> which<00:04:37.880> which<00:04:38.080> reports
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moving media which which reports
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moving media which which reports
breathlessly<00:04:40.199> usually<00:04:40.639> without<00:04:41.039> perspective
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breathlessly usually without perspective
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breathlessly usually without perspective
and<00:04:41.919> without<00:04:42.280> knowledge<00:04:42.720> on<00:04:42.960> some<00:04:43.120> of<00:04:43.280> the<00:04:43.520> key
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and without knowledge on some of the key
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and without knowledge on some of the key
issues<00:04:44.600> whether<00:04:44.840> it's<00:04:45.039> the<00:04:45.240> hostages<00:04:45.960> which
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issues whether it's the hostages which
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issues whether it's the hostages which
is<00:04:46.199> an<00:04:46.440> incredibly<00:04:47.039> opaque<00:04:47.600> situation<00:04:48.600> the
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is an incredibly opaque situation the
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is an incredibly opaque situation the
looming<00:04:49.160> Israeli<00:04:49.639> ground<00:04:50.320> campaign<00:04:51.440> promised
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looming Israeli ground campaign promised
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looming Israeli ground campaign promised
perhaps<00:04:53.240> evolving<00:04:54.240> chances<00:04:54.680> of<00:04:54.880> escalation
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perhaps evolving chances of escalation
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perhaps evolving chances of escalation
on<00:04:55.560> the<00:04:55.680> Israeli<00:04:56.080> leban<00:04:56.600> border<00:04:57.039> so<00:04:57.320> much<00:04:57.520> of
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on the Israeli leban border so much of
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on the Israeli leban border so much of
what<00:04:57.919> we're<00:04:58.560> watching<00:04:59.600> is<00:04:59.880> opaque<00:05:00.720> and<00:05:01.000> really
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what we're watching is opaque and really
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what we're watching is opaque and really
beyond<00:05:01.680> our<00:05:02.000> capacity<00:05:02.520> to<00:05:02.800> Intuit<00:05:03.199> it<00:05:04.039> let
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beyond our capacity to Intuit it let
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beyond our capacity to Intuit it let
alone<00:05:04.960> analyze<00:05:06.280> speculation<00:05:07.280> uh<00:05:07.560> can<00:05:07.720> be
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alone analyze speculation uh can be
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alone analyze speculation uh can be
harmful<00:05:08.400> at<00:05:08.600> times<00:05:09.080> but<00:05:10.000> it<00:05:10.120> runs<00:05:10.440> rampant<00:05:10.960> now
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harmful at times but it runs rampant now
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harmful at times but it runs rampant now
and<00:05:11.680> that<00:05:11.840> calls<00:05:12.160> for<00:05:12.440> real<00:05:12.800> discipline<00:05:13.479> in<00:05:13.639> my
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and that calls for real discipline in my
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and that calls for real discipline in my
judgment<00:05:14.960> on<00:05:15.160> our<00:05:15.440> analysis<00:05:16.039> and<00:05:16.320> restraint
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judgment on our analysis and restraint
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judgment on our analysis and restraint
in<00:05:17.160> quickly<00:05:17.520> reaching<00:05:18.520> conclusions<00:05:19.520> that
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in quickly reaching conclusions that
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in quickly reaching conclusions that
aren't<00:05:19.960> substantiated<00:05:20.960> by<00:05:21.280> facts<00:05:21.680> and
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aren't substantiated by facts and
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aren't substantiated by facts and
empirical<00:05:22.960> data<00:05:23.360> that's<00:05:23.680> Point<00:05:23.919> 101<00:05:24.680> number
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empirical data that's Point 101 number
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empirical data that's Point 101 number
two<00:05:25.160> is
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two is
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two is
Humanity<00:05:27.560> Hamas<00:05:27.960> is<00:05:28.160> intentional<00:05:28.759> and
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Humanity Hamas is intentional and
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Humanity Hamas is intentional and
indiscriminate<00:05:29.919> killing<00:05:30.360> that<00:05:30.520> took<00:05:30.720> the
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indiscriminate killing that took the
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indiscriminate killing that took the
lives<00:05:31.120> of<00:05:31.400> 1400<00:05:32.400> Israelis<00:05:33.000> on<00:05:33.160> October<00:05:33.600> 7<00:05:34.199> was
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lives of 1400 Israelis on October 7 was
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lives of 1400 Israelis on October 7 was
unprecedented<00:05:36.039> and<00:05:36.240> breathtaking<00:05:37.120> in<00:05:37.280> its
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unprecedented and breathtaking in its
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unprecedented and breathtaking in its
pure<00:05:38.039> savagery<00:05:38.639> and
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pure savagery and
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pure savagery and
brutality<00:05:40.600> at<00:05:40.720> the<00:05:40.880> same
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brutality at the same
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brutality at the same
time<00:05:42.919> those<00:05:43.479> Horrors<00:05:44.479> cannot<00:05:45.199> and<00:05:45.560> should<00:05:45.960> not
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time those Horrors cannot and should not
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time those Horrors cannot and should not
prevent<00:05:47.360> us<00:05:47.800> from
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prevent us from
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prevent us from
understanding<00:05:50.520> um<00:05:51.440> both<00:05:52.280> from<00:05:52.520> the
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understanding um both from the
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understanding um both from the
perspective<00:05:53.199> of<00:05:53.319> our<00:05:53.520> hearts<00:05:53.759> and<00:05:53.960> our<00:05:54.199> minds
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perspective of our hearts and our minds
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perspective of our hearts and our minds
the
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the
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the
suffering<00:05:56.800> and<00:05:56.960> the<00:05:57.120> deaths<00:05:57.360> of<00:05:57.600> thousands<00:05:58.039> of
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suffering and the deaths of thousands of
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suffering and the deaths of thousands of
Palestinians<00:05:59.240> as<00:05:59.560> a<00:05:59.680> consequence<00:06:00.160> of<00:06:00.360> Israeli
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Palestinians as a consequence of Israeli
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Palestinians as a consequence of Israeli
strikes<00:06:01.280> in<00:06:01.400> an<00:06:01.600> effort<00:06:01.919> to<00:06:02.720> strike<00:06:03.240> back<00:06:03.520> at
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strikes in an effort to strike back at
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strikes in an effort to strike back at
Hamas<00:06:05.400> as<00:06:05.560> secretary<00:06:06.039> blinkin<00:06:06.599> has<00:06:06.800> said
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Hamas as secretary blinkin has said
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Hamas as secretary blinkin has said
there's<00:06:07.599> no<00:06:08.360> hierarchy<00:06:09.360> when<00:06:09.520> it<00:06:09.680> comes<00:06:09.880> to
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there's no hierarchy when it comes to
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there's no hierarchy when it comes to
the<00:06:10.280> deaths<00:06:10.639> of<00:06:10.960> civilians<00:06:11.520> in<00:06:11.840> war<00:06:12.840> be<00:06:13.039> they
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the deaths of civilians in war be they
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the deaths of civilians in war be they
Israelis<00:06:13.759> or<00:06:14.000> Palestinians<00:06:14.720> and<00:06:14.960> finally
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Israelis or Palestinians and finally
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Israelis or Palestinians and finally
just<00:06:15.599> a<00:06:15.840> note<00:06:16.280> on<00:06:16.639> Hope<00:06:17.400> and<00:06:17.880> history<00:06:18.880> on
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just a note on Hope and history on
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just a note on Hope and history on
October<00:06:19.520> 6<00:06:19.919> 1973<00:06:20.919> I<00:06:21.039> was<00:06:21.199> in<00:06:21.880> Jerusalem<00:06:22.880> and
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October 6 1973 I was in Jerusalem and
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October 6 1973 I was in Jerusalem and
watched<00:06:23.440> an<00:06:23.599> Israeli<00:06:24.160> Society<00:06:24.680> traumatized
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watched an Israeli Society traumatized
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watched an Israeli Society traumatized
by<00:06:25.759> the
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by the
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by the
October<00:06:27.759> 1973<00:06:28.759> yum<00:06:29.520> award<00:06:30.440> and<00:06:30.599> yet<00:06:30.759> within
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October 1973 yum award and yet within
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October 1973 yum award and yet within
six<00:06:31.440> years<00:06:31.800> of<00:06:32.000> that<00:06:32.240> trauma<00:06:32.759> and<00:06:32.960> the<00:06:33.120> largest
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six years of that trauma and the largest
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six years of that trauma and the largest
intelligence<00:06:34.479> failure<00:06:35.039> to<00:06:35.800> date<00:06:36.800> uh<00:06:36.960> that
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intelligence failure to date uh that
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intelligence failure to date uh that
trauma<00:06:37.599> would<00:06:37.759> turn<00:06:38.000> to<00:06:38.240> Hope<00:06:39.240> with<00:06:39.400> the
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trauma would turn to Hope with the
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trauma would turn to Hope with the
signing<00:06:39.919> of<00:06:40.039> an<00:06:40.199> Egyptian<00:06:40.599> Israeli<00:06:41.039> Peace<00:06:41.240> Tre
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signing of an Egyptian Israeli Peace Tre
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signing of an Egyptian Israeli Peace Tre
which<00:06:41.840> still<00:06:42.080> endures<00:06:42.800> however<00:06:43.039> imperfect<00:06:43.520> it
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which still endures however imperfect it
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which still endures however imperfect it
may<00:06:43.880> be<00:06:44.840> 20<00:06:45.199> years<00:06:45.479> later<00:06:45.880> I<00:06:46.039> watched<00:06:46.360> on<00:06:46.520> the
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may be 20 years later I watched on the
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may be 20 years later I watched on the
White<00:06:46.960> House<00:06:47.280> lawn<00:06:48.280> as<00:06:48.560> President<00:06:48.960> Clinton
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White House lawn as President Clinton
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White House lawn as President Clinton
Israeli<00:06:50.120> Prime<00:06:50.319> Minister<00:06:50.680> Rabin<00:06:51.520> and<00:06:51.720> poo
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Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and poo
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Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and poo
chairman<00:06:52.520> Yas<00:06:52.919> arot<00:06:53.800> signed<00:06:54.199> the<00:06:54.319> oso
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chairman Yas arot signed the oso
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chairman Yas arot signed the oso
Accords<00:06:56.759> there<00:06:57.759> great<00:06:58.120> hope<00:06:58.440> turned<00:06:58.720> to
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Accords there great hope turned to
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Accords there great hope turned to
trauma
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trauma
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trauma
we<00:07:00.479> really<00:07:00.800> cannot<00:07:01.240> see<00:07:01.560> what's<00:07:01.759> in<00:07:01.919> front<00:07:02.120> of
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we really cannot see what's in front of
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we really cannot see what's in front of
us<00:07:03.120> every<00:07:03.400> breakthrough<00:07:03.879> in<00:07:04.000> the<00:07:04.080> Arab
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us every breakthrough in the Arab
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us every breakthrough in the Arab
Israeli<00:07:05.039> conflict<00:07:05.599> Zone<00:07:06.440> I<00:07:06.520> will<00:07:06.680> not<00:07:06.879> include
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Israeli conflict Zone I will not include
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Israeli conflict Zone I will not include
the<00:07:07.360> Abraham<00:07:07.759> Accords<00:07:08.240> because<00:07:08.479> they<00:07:08.599> are<00:07:08.800> not
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the Abraham Accords because they are not
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the Abraham Accords because they are not
what<00:07:09.599> I<00:07:09.720> would<00:07:09.960> describe<00:07:10.360> as<00:07:10.479> a<00:07:10.720> conflict<00:07:11.199> Zone
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what I would describe as a conflict Zone
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what I would describe as a conflict Zone
agreement<00:07:12.639> but<00:07:12.800> everyone<00:07:13.240> in<00:07:13.400> the<00:07:13.639> conflict
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agreement but everyone in the conflict
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agreement but everyone in the conflict
Zone<00:07:14.960> was<00:07:15.360> preceded<00:07:15.919> by<00:07:16.479> Terror<00:07:17.720> Insurgency
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Zone was preceded by Terror Insurgency
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Zone was preceded by Terror Insurgency
and<00:07:18.919> War<00:07:19.560> whether<00:07:19.840> it<00:07:19.919> was<00:07:20.080> the<00:07:20.240> 73<00:07:21.000> War<00:07:21.440> which
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and War whether it was the 73 War which
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and War whether it was the 73 War which
produced<00:07:22.240> SED<00:07:22.599> Do's<00:07:23.400> initiative<00:07:24.400> whether<00:07:24.720> it
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produced SED Do's initiative whether it
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produced SED Do's initiative whether it
was<00:07:25.680> Baker's<00:07:26.199> Madrid<00:07:26.639> peace<00:07:27.319> conference
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was Baker's Madrid peace conference
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was Baker's Madrid peace conference
which<00:07:28.479> was<00:07:28.639> driven<00:07:28.919> in<00:07:29.080> large<00:07:29.560> part<00:07:29.759> by
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which was driven in large part by
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which was driven in large part by
saddam's<00:07:30.400> invasion<00:07:30.720> of<00:07:30.919> Kuwait<00:07:31.280> and<00:07:31.400> the<00:07:31.520> Bush
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saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the Bush
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saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the Bush
41<00:07:32.800> administration's<00:07:33.560> efforts<00:07:33.879> to<00:07:34.280> push<00:07:35.280> him
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41 administration's efforts to push him
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41 administration's efforts to push him
out<00:07:35.680> of<00:07:35.919> Kuwait<00:07:36.360> or<00:07:36.599> or<00:07:36.759> the<00:07:36.919> oselot<00:07:37.479> the
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out of Kuwait or or the oselot the
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out of Kuwait or or the oselot the
failed<00:07:38.039> ocel<00:07:38.560> process<00:07:39.400> and<00:07:39.599> the<00:07:40.120> successful
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failed ocel process and the successful
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failed ocel process and the successful
Israeli<00:07:41.039> Jordanian<00:07:41.599> peace<00:07:41.840> treaty<00:07:42.280> which
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Israeli Jordanian peace treaty which
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Israeli Jordanian peace treaty which
were<00:07:43.319> driven<00:07:44.319> essentially<00:07:45.039> by<00:07:45.599> the<00:07:45.759> first
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were driven essentially by the first
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were driven essentially by the first
inata<00:07:46.720> and<00:07:46.840> changing<00:07:47.319> Israeli<00:07:47.720> and
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inata and changing Israeli and
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inata and changing Israeli and
Palestinian<00:07:48.520> calculations<00:07:49.199> about<00:07:49.400> a
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Palestinian calculations about a
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Palestinian calculations about a
diplomatic<00:07:50.560> process<00:07:51.560> the<00:07:51.720> Arc<00:07:51.960> of<00:07:52.159> History
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diplomatic process the Arc of History
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diplomatic process the Arc of History
bends<00:07:52.919> in<00:07:53.280> very<00:07:53.720> unpredictable<00:07:54.759> ways<00:07:55.759> and
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bends in very unpredictable ways and
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bends in very unpredictable ways and
maybe<00:07:56.319> something<00:07:56.680> of<00:07:56.919> value<00:07:57.440> will<00:07:57.680> come<00:07:57.840> out
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maybe something of value will come out
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maybe something of value will come out
of<00:07:58.199> this<00:07:58.440> crisis
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of this crisis
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of this crisis
uh<00:08:00.080> but<00:08:00.240> one<00:08:00.479> thing<00:08:00.759> is<00:08:01.280> is<00:08:01.840> clear<00:08:02.680> clearly
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uh but one thing is is clear clearly
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uh but one thing is is clear clearly
evident<00:08:04.360> hoping<00:08:04.759> isn't
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evident hoping isn't
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evident hoping isn't
enough<00:08:06.759> uh<00:08:07.080> if<00:08:07.280> you<00:08:07.400> want<00:08:07.479> to<00:08:07.639> bend<00:08:07.960> the<00:08:08.159> Arc<00:08:08.400> of
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enough uh if you want to bend the Arc of
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enough uh if you want to bend the Arc of
History<00:08:09.520> humans<00:08:09.919> have<00:08:10.080> to<00:08:10.240> work<00:08:10.879> tirelessly
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History humans have to work tirelessly
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History humans have to work tirelessly
in<00:08:12.000> an<00:08:12.199> effort<00:08:12.440> to<00:08:12.599> make<00:08:12.720> sure<00:08:12.960> it's<00:08:13.159> bent<00:08:13.440> in
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in an effort to make sure it's bent in
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in an effort to make sure it's bent in
the<00:08:13.680> right
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the right
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the right
direction<00:08:15.400> uh<00:08:16.240> Robin<00:08:16.639> do<00:08:16.759> you<00:08:16.879> have<00:08:17.039> any<00:08:17.479> any
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direction uh Robin do you have any any
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direction uh Robin do you have any any
uh<00:08:19.000> anything<00:08:19.319> else<00:08:19.560> to<00:08:19.720> say<00:08:20.039> just<00:08:20.240> as<00:08:20.400> we
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uh anything else to say just as we
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uh anything else to say just as we
start<00:08:22.400> Erin's<00:08:22.759> covered<00:08:23.039> a<00:08:23.120> lot<00:08:23.520> uh<00:08:23.599> and<00:08:23.720> I'm
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start Erin's covered a lot uh and I'm
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start Erin's covered a lot uh and I'm
always<00:08:24.080> honored<00:08:24.479> to<00:08:24.680> to<00:08:24.759> be<00:08:24.919> on<00:08:25.080> with<00:08:25.199> Aon<00:08:25.599> we
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always honored to to be on with Aon we
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always honored to to be on with Aon we
our<00:08:25.960> lives<00:08:26.199> have<00:08:26.440> cross<00:08:27.080> intersected<00:08:27.680> in<00:08:27.800> any
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our lives have cross intersected in any
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our lives have cross intersected in any
number<00:08:28.280> of<00:08:28.440> ways<00:08:29.400> um<00:08:29.919> uh<00:08:30.080> traveling<00:08:30.440> with
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number of ways um uh traveling with
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number of ways um uh traveling with
secretaries<00:08:31.039> of<00:08:31.240> State<00:08:31.879> uh<00:08:32.039> being<00:08:32.240> on<00:08:32.399> the
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secretaries of State uh being on the
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secretaries of State uh being on the
same<00:08:32.839> campus<00:08:33.440> as<00:08:33.640> students<00:08:34.279> at<00:08:34.760> gobl<00:08:35.560> Michigan
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same campus as students at gobl Michigan
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same campus as students at gobl Michigan
um<00:08:36.959> so<00:08:37.880> and<00:08:38.080> and<00:08:38.240> we've<00:08:38.440> shared<00:08:39.440> uh<00:08:39.599> positions
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um so and and we've shared uh positions
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um so and and we've shared uh positions
at<00:08:40.599> at<00:08:41.599> think<00:08:41.880> tanks<00:08:42.159> as<00:08:42.320> well<00:08:43.159> um<00:08:43.279> and<00:08:43.399> we
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at at think tanks as well um and we
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at at think tanks as well um and we
agree<00:08:43.839> on<00:08:44.159> on<00:08:44.360> a<00:08:44.480> lot<00:08:44.839> I<00:08:44.920> think<00:08:45.480> what<00:08:45.640> I'd
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agree on on a lot I think what I'd
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agree on on a lot I think what I'd
probably<00:08:46.200> do<00:08:46.399> is<00:08:46.640> I<00:08:46.880> also<00:08:47.200> covered<00:08:47.680> I've
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probably do is I also covered I've
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probably do is I also covered I've
covered<00:08:48.160> this<00:08:48.839> tragedy<00:08:49.480> in<00:08:49.600> the<00:08:49.680> Middle<00:08:49.959> East
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covered this tragedy in the Middle East
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covered this tragedy in the Middle East
for<00:08:50.320> 50<00:08:50.600> years<00:08:50.839> I<00:08:50.959> landed<00:08:51.279> in<00:08:51.440> Beirut<00:08:52.240> on
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for 50 years I landed in Beirut on
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for 50 years I landed in Beirut on
October<00:08:52.839> 6<00:08:53.600> 1973<00:08:54.600> and<00:08:54.720> I<00:08:54.839> remember<00:08:55.160> being<00:08:55.399> at
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October 6 1973 and I remember being at
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October 6 1973 and I remember being at
the<00:08:55.760> airport<00:08:56.760> uh<00:08:57.360> in<00:08:57.519> Beirut<00:08:57.959> in<00:08:58.079> the<00:08:58.320> transit
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the airport uh in Beirut in the transit
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the airport uh in Beirut in the transit
Lounge<00:08:59.200> I<00:08:59.279> was<00:08:59.399> actually<00:08:59.600> on<00:08:59.760> my<00:08:59.920> way<00:09:00.040> to<00:09:00.320> Iran
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Lounge I was actually on my way to Iran
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Lounge I was actually on my way to Iran
and<00:09:01.880> a<00:09:02.000> woman<00:09:02.440> whispered<00:09:02.880> to<00:09:03.000> me<00:09:03.200> very
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and a woman whispered to me very
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and a woman whispered to me very
anxiously<00:09:04.560> the<00:09:04.720> Egyptians<00:09:05.240> have<00:09:05.399> just
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anxiously the Egyptians have just
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anxiously the Egyptians have just
crossed<00:09:05.959> the<00:09:06.079> Suez<00:09:06.920> Canal<00:09:07.920> um<00:09:08.519> what<00:09:08.680> we've
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crossed the Suez Canal um what we've
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crossed the Suez Canal um what we've
really<00:09:09.079> seen<00:09:09.480> play<00:09:09.720> out<00:09:10.279> is<00:09:10.399> the<00:09:10.560> evolution<00:09:11.000> of
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really seen play out is the evolution of
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really seen play out is the evolution of
a<00:09:11.279> type<00:09:11.440> of<00:09:11.600> warfare<00:09:12.079> that's<00:09:12.320> important<00:09:12.640> to
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a type of warfare that's important to
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a type of warfare that's important to
understand<00:09:14.480> uh<00:09:14.800> between<00:09:15.160> 1948<00:09:15.880> and<00:09:16.000> 1973
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understand uh between 1948 and 1973
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understand uh between 1948 and 1973
Israel<00:09:17.320> went<00:09:17.519> through<00:09:17.959> through<00:09:18.240> four
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Israel went through through four
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Israel went through through four
conventional<00:09:19.320> Wars<00:09:20.240> but<00:09:20.440> every<00:09:20.720> war<00:09:21.000> in<00:09:21.120> the
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conventional Wars but every war in the
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conventional Wars but every war in the
half<00:09:21.519> century<00:09:21.920> since<00:09:22.240> then<00:09:22.480> has<00:09:22.640> pitted
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half century since then has pitted
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half century since then has pitted
Israel<00:09:23.800> against<00:09:24.519> a<00:09:24.680> non-state<00:09:25.279> actor<00:09:25.839> be<00:09:26.040> it
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Israel against a non-state actor be it
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Israel against a non-state actor be it
the<00:09:26.519> Palestinian<00:09:27.079> Liberation<00:09:27.600> Organization
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the Palestinian Liberation Organization
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the Palestinian Liberation Organization
has<00:09:28.800> bull
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has bull
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has bull
Hamas<00:09:31.000> um<00:09:31.279> Hezbollah<00:09:31.959> again<00:09:32.560> Hamas<00:09:33.120> again<00:09:34.000> and
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Hamas um Hezbollah again Hamas again and
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Hamas um Hezbollah again Hamas again and
it's<00:09:34.680> very<00:09:34.959> under<00:09:35.399> important<00:09:35.800> I<00:09:35.880> think<00:09:36.000> to
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it's very under important I think to
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it's very under important I think to
understand<00:09:36.760> the<00:09:36.959> pattern<00:09:37.320> of<00:09:37.440> warfare
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understand the pattern of warfare
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understand the pattern of warfare
because<00:09:38.200> it<00:09:38.279> is<00:09:38.519> much<00:09:38.800> harder<00:09:39.680> to<00:09:39.880> fight<00:09:40.079> a
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because it is much harder to fight a
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because it is much harder to fight a
non-state<00:09:40.720> actor<00:09:41.079> to<00:09:41.240> fight<00:09:41.399> a<00:09:41.519> militia<00:09:41.920> than
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non-state actor to fight a militia than
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non-state actor to fight a militia than
it<00:09:42.200> is<00:09:42.720> to<00:09:42.920> fight<00:09:43.160> a<00:09:43.320> state<00:09:43.680> where<00:09:43.920> you<00:09:44.040> know
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it is to fight a state where you know
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it is to fight a state where you know
what<00:09:44.399> the<00:09:44.560> Diplomatic<00:09:45.160> address<00:09:45.560> is<00:09:45.880> what<00:09:46.000> the
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what the Diplomatic address is what the
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what the Diplomatic address is what the
potential<00:09:47.360> diplomatic<00:09:48.240> engagement<00:09:48.920> might<00:09:49.160> be
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potential diplomatic engagement might be
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potential diplomatic engagement might be
and<00:09:50.920> uh<00:09:51.040> what<00:09:51.200> an<00:09:51.360> outcome<00:09:51.720> might<00:09:51.920> be<00:09:52.079> in<00:09:52.200> terms
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and uh what an outcome might be in terms
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and uh what an outcome might be in terms
of<00:09:53.079> uh<00:09:53.360> of<00:09:53.640> peace<00:09:54.440> and<00:09:54.560> I<00:09:54.680> think<00:09:54.839> with<00:09:54.959> an
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of uh of peace and I think with an
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of uh of peace and I think with an
unconventional<00:09:55.880> actor<00:09:56.600> a<00:09:56.760> non-state<00:09:57.320> actor
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unconventional actor a non-state actor
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unconventional actor a non-state actor
you<00:09:58.279> have<00:09:58.519> basic<00:09:58.839> question<00:09:59.120> questions<00:09:59.519> what
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you have basic question questions what
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you have basic question questions what
is<00:09:59.720> winning<00:10:00.640> what<00:10:00.760> is<00:10:01.000> peace<00:10:01.720> what<00:10:01.839> is<00:10:02.000> the
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is winning what is peace what is the
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is winning what is peace what is the
alternative<00:10:03.279> and<00:10:03.600> all<00:10:03.760> of<00:10:03.959> these<00:10:04.240> questions
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alternative and all of these questions
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alternative and all of these questions
are<00:10:05.040> today
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are today
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are today
unanswerable<00:10:07.079> I<00:10:07.240> think<00:10:07.720> uh<00:10:07.839> when<00:10:07.959> I<00:10:08.120> look<00:10:08.279> at
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unanswerable I think uh when I look at
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unanswerable I think uh when I look at
where<00:10:08.640> we<00:10:08.760> are<00:10:09.040> now<00:10:09.480> I<00:10:09.600> think<00:10:09.800> we<00:10:09.920> are<00:10:10.160> at<00:10:10.320> a
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where we are now I think we are at a
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where we are now I think we are at a
precipice<00:10:11.640> we<00:10:11.760> are<00:10:11.959> not<00:10:12.680> about<00:10:12.959> to<00:10:13.120> fall<00:10:13.480> off
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precipice we are not about to fall off
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precipice we are not about to fall off
the<00:10:13.920> precipice<00:10:14.920> but<00:10:15.839> and<00:10:16.000> I<00:10:16.120> think<00:10:16.519> in<00:10:16.760> fact
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the precipice but and I think in fact
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the precipice but and I think in fact
that<00:10:17.480> the<00:10:17.880> the<00:10:18.200> outside<00:10:18.800> actors<00:10:19.519> who<00:10:19.720> are<00:10:20.640> kind
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that the the outside actors who are kind
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that the the outside actors who are kind
of<00:10:21.079> Quasi<00:10:21.720> engaged<00:10:22.440> or<00:10:23.160> have<00:10:23.279> a<00:10:23.440> quazi<00:10:24.000> have<00:10:24.120> a
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of Quasi engaged or have a quazi have a
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of Quasi engaged or have a quazi have a
stake<00:10:24.680> in<00:10:25.200> this<00:10:26.000> conflict<00:10:26.560> whether<00:10:26.839> it's<00:10:27.079> Iran
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stake in this conflict whether it's Iran
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stake in this conflict whether it's Iran
on<00:10:28.000> one<00:10:28.240> side<00:10:28.480> the<00:10:28.560> unit<00:10:29.160> States<00:10:29.320> and<00:10:29.440> the
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on one side the unit States and the
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on one side the unit States and the
other<00:10:30.160> several<00:10:30.560> militias<00:10:31.399> in<00:10:32.000> Yemen<00:10:32.600> Iraq
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other several militias in Yemen Iraq
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other several militias in Yemen Iraq
Syria<00:10:33.959> and<00:10:34.320> Lebanon<00:10:35.320> that<00:10:35.839> that<00:10:36.000> at<00:10:36.160> this
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Syria and Lebanon that that at this
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Syria and Lebanon that that at this
point<00:10:36.959> none<00:10:37.200> of<00:10:37.320> them<00:10:37.440> want<00:10:37.639> a<00:10:37.800> bigger<00:10:38.120> War<00:10:38.920> but
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point none of them want a bigger War but
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point none of them want a bigger War but
as<00:10:39.240> we<00:10:39.399> all<00:10:39.560> know<00:10:39.800> from<00:10:39.959> the<00:10:40.120> history<00:10:40.399> of
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as we all know from the history of
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as we all know from the history of
conflict<00:10:41.160> it<00:10:41.279> takes<00:10:41.600> one<00:10:42.079> incident<00:10:42.600> to
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conflict it takes one incident to
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conflict it takes one incident to
escalate<00:10:43.839> to<00:10:44.000> get<00:10:44.160> it<00:10:44.320> out<00:10:44.480> of<00:10:44.680> control<00:10:45.079> to
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escalate to get it out of control to
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escalate to get it out of control to
lead<00:10:45.440> us<00:10:45.560> on<00:10:45.680> a<00:10:45.880> different<00:10:46.320> trajectory<00:10:47.320> and
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lead us on a different trajectory and
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lead us on a different trajectory and
the<00:10:47.680> algorithm<00:10:48.279> of<00:10:48.440> this<00:10:48.720> of<00:10:48.880> this<00:10:49.040> war<00:10:49.399> is
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the algorithm of this of this war is
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the algorithm of this of this war is
different<00:10:49.920> than<00:10:50.160> any<00:10:50.600> of<00:10:50.880> the<00:10:51.200> previous
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different than any of the previous
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different than any of the previous
conflicts<00:10:52.680> between<00:10:53.079> Israel<00:10:53.639> and<00:10:53.959> the
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conflicts between Israel and the
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conflicts between Israel and the
non-state<00:10:54.680> actors<00:10:55.200> in<00:10:55.399> that<00:10:55.560> in<00:10:55.680> the<00:10:55.959> past<00:10:56.680> it
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non-state actors in that in the past it
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non-state actors in that in the past it
has<00:10:57.000> been<00:10:57.240> a<00:10:57.440> provocation<00:10:58.360> by<00:10:58.839> one<00:10:59.040> one<00:10:59.120> of<00:10:59.240> the
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has been a provocation by one one of the
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has been a provocation by one one of the
militias<00:10:59.959> an<00:11:00.160> Israeli<00:11:00.880> countered<00:11:01.360> with<00:11:01.480> air
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militias an Israeli countered with air
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militias an Israeli countered with air
strikes<00:11:02.639> perhaps<00:11:03.440> small<00:11:03.839> grounds<00:11:04.560> ground
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strikes perhaps small grounds ground
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strikes perhaps small grounds ground
actions<00:11:05.920> uh<00:11:06.040> but<00:11:06.200> then<00:11:06.480> got<00:11:06.720> her<00:11:06.839> in<00:11:07.040> Egypt
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actions uh but then got her in Egypt
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actions uh but then got her in Egypt
particularly<00:11:07.920> get<00:11:08.079> go<00:11:08.279> in<00:11:08.639> and<00:11:09.440> engage<00:11:09.839> in<00:11:10.480> in
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particularly get go in and engage in in
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particularly get go in and engage in in
um<00:11:12.839> some<00:11:13.079> kind<00:11:13.240> of<00:11:13.639> temporary<00:11:14.079> ceasefire<00:11:14.600> with
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um some kind of temporary ceasefire with
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um some kind of temporary ceasefire with
the<00:11:14.839> emphasis<00:11:15.279> on<00:11:15.600> temporary<00:11:16.600> and<00:11:16.720> the
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the emphasis on temporary and the
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the emphasis on temporary and the
problem<00:11:17.240> is<00:11:17.399> that<00:11:17.560> none<00:11:17.720> of<00:11:17.880> the<00:11:18.000> core
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problem is that none of the core
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problem is that none of the core
questions<00:11:19.880> uh<00:11:20.120> that<00:11:20.399> have<00:11:20.639> defined<00:11:21.120> this
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questions uh that have defined this
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questions uh that have defined this
conflict<00:11:21.720> the<00:11:21.800> fate<00:11:22.000> of<00:11:22.120> the<00:11:22.360> Palestinians
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conflict the fate of the Palestinians
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conflict the fate of the Palestinians
you<00:11:23.480> know<00:11:23.880> the<00:11:24.040> relations<00:11:24.560> between<00:11:24.880> Israel
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you know the relations between Israel
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you know the relations between Israel
and<00:11:25.440> its<00:11:26.440> uh<00:11:26.959> Arab<00:11:27.279> or<00:11:27.440> Muslim<00:11:27.760> neighbors<00:11:28.240> have
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and its uh Arab or Muslim neighbors have
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and its uh Arab or Muslim neighbors have
been<00:11:28.560> addressed<00:11:29.240> since<00:11:29.760> 1948<00:11:30.760> and<00:11:30.880> there<00:11:31.000> have
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been addressed since 1948 and there have
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been addressed since 1948 and there have
been<00:11:31.320> attempts<00:11:32.240> now<00:11:32.920> um<00:11:33.200> kind<00:11:33.320> of<00:11:33.639> taking<00:11:34.000> the
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been attempts now um kind of taking the
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been attempts now um kind of taking the
my<00:11:34.680> dad<00:11:34.959> always<00:11:35.160> said<00:11:35.360> to<00:11:35.760> understand<00:11:35.920> any
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my dad always said to understand any
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my dad always said to understand any
conflict<00:11:36.519> you<00:11:36.639> have<00:11:36.760> to<00:11:37.000> stand<00:11:37.200> on<00:11:37.360> top<00:11:37.560> of<00:11:37.680> the
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conflict you have to stand on top of the
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conflict you have to stand on top of the
world<00:11:38.000> and<00:11:38.160> look<00:11:38.399> down<00:11:39.120> and<00:11:39.240> it's<00:11:39.440> very<00:11:39.639> good
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world and look down and it's very good
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world and look down and it's very good
advice<00:11:40.240> right<00:11:40.440> now<00:11:41.120> uh<00:11:41.360> I<00:11:41.480> think<00:11:41.720> what's
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advice right now uh I think what's
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advice right now uh I think what's
important<00:11:42.320> to<00:11:42.760> understand<00:11:43.160> is<00:11:43.440> that<00:11:44.360> uh<00:11:44.639> since
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important to understand is that uh since
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important to understand is that uh since
since<00:11:45.839> the<00:11:46.000> 1970s<00:11:46.720> for<00:11:46.920> a<00:11:47.040> half<00:11:47.320> almost<00:11:47.519> a<00:11:47.680> half
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since the 1970s for a half almost a half
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since the 1970s for a half almost a half
century<00:11:49.160> there<00:11:49.360> has<00:11:49.600> been<00:11:50.320> slowly<00:11:51.160> a
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century there has been slowly a
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century there has been slowly a
tapestry<00:11:53.200> uh<00:11:53.399> that<00:11:53.519> has<00:11:53.680> been<00:11:53.920> woven<00:11:55.079> by<00:11:56.079> play
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tapestry uh that has been woven by play
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tapestry uh that has been woven by play
players<00:11:56.880> whether<00:11:57.079> it's<00:11:57.200> Israel<00:11:57.560> and<00:11:57.760> Egypt<00:11:58.200> F
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players whether it's Israel and Egypt F
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players whether it's Israel and Egypt F
first<00:11:58.959> and<00:11:59.079> then<00:11:59.480> Israel<00:11:59.839> and<00:12:00.040> Jordan<00:12:00.600> and
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first and then Israel and Jordan and
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first and then Israel and Jordan and
then<00:12:00.959> now<00:12:01.279> through<00:12:01.480> the<00:12:01.600> Abraham<00:12:02.079> Accords<00:12:02.760> a
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then now through the Abraham Accords a
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then now through the Abraham Accords a
tapestry<00:12:04.279> and<00:12:04.399> the<00:12:04.680> tapestry<00:12:05.680> has<00:12:06.440> uh<00:12:06.560> it's
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tapestry and the tapestry has uh it's
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tapestry and the tapestry has uh it's
not<00:12:06.920> finished<00:12:07.600> uh<00:12:07.720> it's<00:12:08.079> partially<00:12:08.560> there<00:12:08.760> but
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not finished uh it's partially there but
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not finished uh it's partially there but
it<00:12:09.040> was<00:12:09.279> bringing<00:12:09.800> together<00:12:10.279> different
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it was bringing together different
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it was bringing together different
threads<00:12:11.279> different<00:12:12.200> um<00:12:12.800> types<00:12:13.040> of<00:12:13.240> government
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threads different um types of government
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threads different um types of government
different<00:12:14.920> uh<00:12:15.079> ethnicities<00:12:15.680> and<00:12:15.880> religions
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different uh ethnicities and religions
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different uh ethnicities and religions
in<00:12:17.839> uh<00:12:18.160> what<00:12:19.160> what<00:12:19.360> everyone<00:12:20.040> what<00:12:20.240> many
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in uh what what everyone what many
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in uh what what everyone what many
players<00:12:20.959> intended<00:12:21.399> to<00:12:21.560> be<00:12:22.279> um<00:12:23.279> you<00:12:23.399> know<00:12:23.680> a<00:12:23.880> way
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players intended to be um you know a way
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players intended to be um you know a way
if
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if
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if
countries<00:12:27.000> didn't<00:12:27.279> like<00:12:27.519> each<00:12:27.880> other<00:12:29.079> had
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countries didn't like each other had
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countries didn't like each other had
different
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different
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different
religions<00:12:31.120> uh<00:12:31.320> but<00:12:31.639> that<00:12:31.920> could<00:12:32.240> coexist<00:12:33.199> in<00:12:33.639> a
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religions uh but that could coexist in a
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religions uh but that could coexist in a
kind<00:12:34.000> of<00:12:34.639> cold<00:12:35.120> peace<00:12:36.120> and<00:12:36.399> my<00:12:36.560> fear<00:12:37.160> is<00:12:37.440> that
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kind of cold peace and my fear is that
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kind of cold peace and my fear is that
this<00:12:37.920> war<00:12:38.839> and<00:12:39.079> its<00:12:39.399> consequences<00:12:40.279> and<00:12:40.440> Ain<00:12:40.760> is
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this war and its consequences and Ain is
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this war and its consequences and Ain is
absolutely<00:12:41.480> right<00:12:41.639> the
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absolutely right the
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absolutely right the
consequences<00:12:43.360> are<00:12:43.560> are<00:12:43.839> just<00:12:44.480> huge<00:12:45.320> huge<00:12:45.760> huge
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consequences are are just huge huge huge
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consequences are are just huge huge huge
and<00:12:46.399> and<00:12:47.160> in<00:12:47.399> involve<00:12:47.839> far<00:12:48.040> more<00:12:48.360> than<00:12:49.160> the
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and and in involve far more than the
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and and in involve far more than the
fate<00:12:49.480> of<00:12:49.600> Israel<00:12:50.120> and<00:12:50.279> Hamas<00:12:51.079> that<00:12:51.240> that
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fate of Israel and Hamas that that
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fate of Israel and Hamas that that
tapestry<00:12:51.959> unravels<00:12:52.440> and<00:12:52.560> we<00:12:52.720> get<00:12:52.920> back<00:12:53.079> to
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tapestry unravels and we get back to
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tapestry unravels and we get back to
zero<00:12:53.639> and<00:12:53.760> we<00:12:53.880> have<00:12:54.000> to<00:12:54.120> start<00:12:54.399> with<00:12:54.639> pulling
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zero and we have to start with pulling
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zero and we have to start with pulling
the<00:12:55.040> first<00:12:55.279> two<00:12:55.440> threads<00:12:55.959> together<00:12:56.680> and
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the first two threads together and
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the first two threads together and
that's<00:12:57.120> how<00:12:57.320> dangerous<00:12:57.800> it<00:12:57.959> is<00:12:58.399> and<00:12:58.519> just<00:12:58.839> to
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that's how dangerous it is and just to
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that's how dangerous it is and just to
give<00:12:59.040> you<00:12:59.160> a<00:12:59.279> sampling<00:12:59.800> of<00:13:00.040> what<00:13:00.240> that<00:13:00.440> might
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give you a sampling of what that might
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give you a sampling of what that might
be<00:13:01.639> um<00:13:02.040> does<00:13:02.480> Israel<00:13:02.920> eliminate<00:13:03.639> Hamas<00:13:04.639> uh<00:13:04.880> at
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be um does Israel eliminate Hamas uh at
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be um does Israel eliminate Hamas uh at
least<00:13:05.760> you<00:13:05.880> know<00:13:06.040> shortterm<00:13:06.639> it's<00:13:06.880> leadership
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least you know shortterm it's leadership
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least you know shortterm it's leadership
it's<00:13:08.199> destroy<00:13:08.639> it<00:13:09.000> its<00:13:09.440> arsenals<00:13:10.440> uh<00:13:10.560> its
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it's destroy it its arsenals uh its
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it's destroy it its arsenals uh its
command<00:13:11.160> posts<00:13:11.480> and<00:13:11.639> so<00:13:11.839> forth<00:13:12.320> but<00:13:12.519> does<00:13:12.800> that
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command posts and so forth but does that
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command posts and so forth but does that
lead<00:13:13.279> to<00:13:14.240> um<00:13:14.480> you<00:13:14.600> know<00:13:14.959> a<00:13:15.160> different
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lead to um you know a different
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lead to um you know a different
Evolution<00:13:16.639> a<00:13:16.800> different<00:13:17.160> idea<00:13:17.519> a<00:13:17.639> different
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Evolution a different idea a different
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Evolution a different idea a different
group<00:13:18.440> emerging<00:13:19.360> does<00:13:19.839> this<00:13:20.519> uh<00:13:20.920> cause<00:13:21.360> such
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group emerging does this uh cause such
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group emerging does this uh cause such
anger<00:13:22.120> and<00:13:22.279> fury<00:13:22.800> among<00:13:23.519> Palestinians<00:13:24.079> in<00:13:24.240> the
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anger and fury among Palestinians in the
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anger and fury among Palestinians in the
West<00:13:24.600> Bank<00:13:25.519> that<00:13:26.279> uh<00:13:26.600> Israel<00:13:27.120> regains
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West Bank that uh Israel regains
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West Bank that uh Israel regains
temporarily<00:13:28.199> control<00:13:28.480> of<00:13:28.600> God<00:13:29.079> but<00:13:29.160> loses
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temporarily control of God but loses
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temporarily control of God but loses
West<00:13:29.839> Bank<00:13:30.160> as<00:13:30.279> a<00:13:30.440> potential<00:13:31.199> interlocutor
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West Bank as a potential interlocutor
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West Bank as a potential interlocutor
and<00:13:32.480> does<00:13:32.760> this<00:13:32.920> lead<00:13:33.920> uh<00:13:34.199> governments<00:13:34.600> in<00:13:34.760> the
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and does this lead uh governments in the
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and does this lead uh governments in the
region<00:13:35.199> that<00:13:35.320> have<00:13:35.480> tried<00:13:35.880> or<00:13:36.079> been<00:13:36.240> willing
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region that have tried or been willing
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region that have tried or been willing
to<00:13:37.000> talk<00:13:37.519> to<00:13:38.519> Israel<00:13:39.040> does<00:13:39.240> that<00:13:39.519> LE<00:13:39.760> make<00:13:39.920> it
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to talk to Israel does that LE make it
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to talk to Israel does that LE make it
impossible<00:13:40.680> for<00:13:40.839> them<00:13:41.040> to<00:13:41.199> move<00:13:41.399> forward<00:13:41.720> for
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impossible for them to move forward for
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impossible for them to move forward for
years<00:13:42.160> to<00:13:42.399> come<00:13:43.199> that<00:13:43.560> the<00:13:43.720> stakes<00:13:44.240> here<00:13:44.440> are
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years to come that the stakes here are
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years to come that the stakes here are
so<00:13:45.199> big<00:13:46.199> um<00:13:46.440> and<00:13:46.560> on<00:13:46.720> the<00:13:46.880> last<00:13:47.160> question<00:13:47.560> you
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so big um and on the last question you
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so big um and on the last question you
know<00:13:48.120> Iran<00:13:48.720> and<00:13:49.079> and<00:13:49.240> all<00:13:49.399> of<00:13:49.560> this<00:13:49.959> I<00:13:50.079> think
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know Iran and and all of this I think
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know Iran and and all of this I think
what's<00:13:50.480> really<00:13:50.759> interesting<00:13:51.240> is<00:13:51.399> that<00:13:51.600> the
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what's really interesting is that the
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what's really interesting is that the
militias<00:13:52.680> have<00:13:53.480> clearly<00:13:54.480> uh<00:13:54.680> in<00:13:55.360> Iraq<00:13:55.839> in
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militias have clearly uh in Iraq in
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militias have clearly uh in Iraq in
Yemen<00:13:56.639> in<00:13:57.079> Lebanon<00:13:58.079> have<00:13:58.199> been<00:13:58.399> probing
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Yemen in Lebanon have been probing
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Yemen in Lebanon have been probing
have<00:13:59.839> been<00:14:00.759> uh<00:14:01.040> the<00:14:01.160> United<00:14:01.519> States<00:14:02.160> forces<00:14:02.680> or
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have been uh the United States forces or
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have been uh the United States forces or
B<00:14:03.199> places<00:14:03.519> where<00:14:03.680> they<00:14:03.800> have<00:14:03.920> been<00:14:04.079> based<00:14:04.399> have
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B places where they have been based have
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B places where they have been based have
been<00:14:04.800> hit<00:14:05.800> TW<00:14:06.240> uh<00:14:06.399> multiple<00:14:06.880> times<00:14:07.199> in<00:14:07.560> Iraq
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been hit TW uh multiple times in Iraq
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been hit TW uh multiple times in Iraq
and<00:14:08.440> Syria<00:14:09.440> um<00:14:10.040> Iran's<00:14:10.800> allies<00:14:11.199> in<00:14:11.360> Yemen<00:14:11.800> have
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and Syria um Iran's allies in Yemen have
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and Syria um Iran's allies in Yemen have
have<00:14:13.040> uh<00:14:13.480> allegedly<00:14:14.279> targeted<00:14:15.279> Israel<00:14:15.680> with
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have uh allegedly targeted Israel with
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have uh allegedly targeted Israel with
missiles<00:14:16.120> and<00:14:16.279> drones<00:14:16.800> that<00:14:16.959> were<00:14:17.079> shot<00:14:17.360> down
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missiles and drones that were shot down
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missiles and drones that were shot down
by<00:14:17.759> the<00:14:17.839> us<00:14:18.120> and<00:14:18.279> one<00:14:18.519> by<00:14:18.680> Saudi<00:14:19.279> Arabia<00:14:20.360> um<00:14:21.360> uh
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by the us and one by Saudi Arabia um uh
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by the us and one by Saudi Arabia um uh
but<00:14:22.120> we<00:14:22.320> haven't<00:14:22.720> seen<00:14:23.120> the<00:14:23.360> escalation<00:14:24.079> yet
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but we haven't seen the escalation yet
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but we haven't seen the escalation yet
and<00:14:24.440> the<00:14:24.600> question<00:14:25.000> is<00:14:25.839> will<00:14:26.480> will<00:14:26.839> that
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and the question is will will that
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and the question is will will that
change<00:14:27.720> once<00:14:27.959> the<00:14:28.079> ground<00:14:28.320> assault<00:14:28.839> begins<00:14:29.560> or
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change once the ground assault begins or
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change once the ground assault begins or
are<00:14:30.120> there<00:14:30.399> certain<00:14:30.839> boundaries<00:14:31.720> that<00:14:32.600> that
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are there certain boundaries that that
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are there certain boundaries that that
are<00:14:33.199> set<00:14:33.560> in<00:14:33.720> terms<00:14:33.959> of<00:14:34.240> how<00:14:34.600> far<00:14:35.000> the
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are set in terms of how far the
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are set in terms of how far the
escalation<00:14:35.800> goes<00:14:36.079> it'll<00:14:36.399> escalate<00:14:37.000> by<00:14:37.199> all<00:14:37.360> of
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escalation goes it'll escalate by all of
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escalation goes it'll escalate by all of
them<00:14:38.000> they'll<00:14:38.199> be<00:14:38.440> probing<00:14:39.040> trying<00:14:39.279> to<00:14:39.440> get
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them they'll be probing trying to get
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them they'll be probing trying to get
the<00:14:39.839> US<00:14:40.240> the<00:14:40.680> raise<00:14:41.000> the<00:14:41.160> cost<00:14:41.399> of<00:14:41.560> the<00:14:41.639> US<00:14:41.839> says
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the US the raise the cost of the US says
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the US the raise the cost of the US says
oh<00:14:42.199> we'll<00:14:42.440> pull<00:14:42.680> our<00:14:42.880> forces<00:14:43.279> out<00:14:43.440> of<00:14:43.959> 900<00:14:44.480> out
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oh we'll pull our forces out of 900 out
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oh we'll pull our forces out of 900 out
of<00:14:45.240> Syria<00:14:45.759> and<00:14:46.399> some<00:14:46.600> of<00:14:46.720> the<00:14:46.839> 2500<00:14:47.519> out<00:14:47.680> of
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of Syria and some of the 2500 out of
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of Syria and some of the 2500 out of
Iraq<00:14:48.440> which<00:14:48.959> actually<00:14:49.199> plays<00:14:49.519> into<00:14:49.800> Iran's
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Iraq which actually plays into Iran's
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Iraq which actually plays into Iran's
hand<00:14:50.480> that<00:14:50.600> it<00:14:50.759> gains<00:14:51.199> side<00:14:51.519> benefits<00:14:52.360> from
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hand that it gains side benefits from
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hand that it gains side benefits from
this<00:14:52.920> conflict<00:14:53.839> so<00:14:54.440> uh<00:14:54.600> again<00:14:55.000> this<00:14:55.120> one<00:14:55.320> as
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this conflict so uh again this one as
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this conflict so uh again this one as
Aon<00:14:56.199> rightly<00:14:56.560> said<00:14:56.839> is<00:14:57.079> just<00:14:57.480> so<00:14:57.839> big<00:14:59.160> uh<00:14:59.480> and
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Aon rightly said is just so big uh and
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Aon rightly said is just so big uh and
will<00:15:00.000> play<00:15:00.240> out<00:15:00.519> potentially<00:15:00.880> for<00:15:01.079> years<00:15:01.240> to
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will play out potentially for years to
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will play out potentially for years to
come<00:15:01.920> even<00:15:02.320> if<00:15:02.600> Israel<00:15:03.399> makes<00:15:03.720> military
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come even if Israel makes military
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come even if Israel makes military
Headway<00:15:04.800> in<00:15:04.920> the<00:15:05.040> not<00:15:05.240> too<00:15:05.440> distant<00:15:05.720> future
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Headway in the not too distant future
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Headway in the not too distant future
against<00:15:06.680> Hamas<00:15:07.680> all<00:15:07.880> right<00:15:08.399> so<00:15:09.040> uh<00:15:09.240> we're
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against Hamas all right so uh we're
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against Hamas all right so uh we're
gonna<00:15:10.120> uh<00:15:10.800> ask<00:15:11.040> some<00:15:11.279> questions<00:15:11.880> and<00:15:12.199> and<00:15:12.480> and
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gonna uh ask some questions and and and
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gonna uh ask some questions and and and
and<00:15:12.959> see<00:15:13.600> uh<00:15:14.120> how<00:15:14.360> you<00:15:14.560> you<00:15:14.720> want<00:15:14.959> to<00:15:15.480> uh<00:15:16.079> uh
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and see uh how you you want to uh uh
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and see uh how you you want to uh uh
answer<00:15:16.880> them<00:15:17.480> I'm<00:15:17.600> getting<00:15:17.920> some<00:15:18.279> messages
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answer them I'm getting some messages
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answer them I'm getting some messages
from<00:15:20.160> uh<00:15:21.000> uh<00:15:21.600> the<00:15:22.240> team<00:15:23.240> that<00:15:23.480> prepares<00:15:23.920> these
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from uh uh the team that prepares these
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from uh uh the team that prepares these
so<00:15:24.320> I<00:15:24.480> don't<00:15:25.120> have<00:15:25.399> anything<00:15:25.800> from<00:15:26.079> the
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so I don't have anything from the
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so I don't have anything from the
audience<00:15:26.839> yet<00:15:27.759> but<00:15:28.279> let<00:15:28.399> me<00:15:28.759> ask<00:15:28.920> you<00:15:29.519> uh<00:15:30.040> uh
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audience yet but let me ask you uh uh
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audience yet but let me ask you uh uh
this<00:15:30.959> there<00:15:31.160> is<00:15:31.319> a<00:15:31.560> rumor<00:15:31.959> going<00:15:32.160> on<00:15:32.560> and<00:15:32.800> I<00:15:32.959> I'm
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this there is a rumor going on and I I'm
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this there is a rumor going on and I I'm
interested<00:15:33.560> what<00:15:33.720> what<00:15:33.839> the<00:15:33.959> two<00:15:34.120> of<00:15:34.199> you
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interested what what the two of you
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interested what what the two of you
think<00:15:35.600> that
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think that
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think that
um<00:15:37.720> what<00:15:38.120> what's<00:15:38.360> really<00:15:38.959> happening<00:15:39.959> because
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um what what's really happening because
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um what what's really happening because
the<00:15:40.560> Saudi<00:15:41.000> Israeli<00:15:41.600> possibility<00:15:42.319> was<00:15:42.959> was
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the Saudi Israeli possibility was was
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the Saudi Israeli possibility was was
hurt<00:15:43.720> so<00:15:44.120> badly<00:15:45.120> by<00:15:45.399> this<00:15:45.639> attack<00:15:46.079> that<00:15:46.319> if<00:15:47.319> uh
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hurt so badly by this attack that if uh
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hurt so badly by this attack that if uh
Israel<00:15:47.959> is<00:15:48.160> able<00:15:48.759> and<00:15:48.920> that<00:15:49.079> this<00:15:49.199> is<00:15:49.319> one<00:15:49.440> of
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Israel is able and that this is one of
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Israel is able and that this is one of
the<00:15:49.639> factors<00:15:50.160> with<00:15:50.319> for<00:15:50.519> Israel<00:15:51.000> that<00:15:51.279> if
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the factors with for Israel that if
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the factors with for Israel that if
Israel<00:15:52.720> manages<00:15:53.720> to<00:15:54.519> uh<00:15:54.800> destroy<00:15:55.720> Hamas<00:15:56.720> that
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Israel manages to uh destroy Hamas that
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Israel manages to uh destroy Hamas that
that<00:15:57.120> will<00:15:57.440> improve<00:15:57.880> the<00:15:58.079> possibility<00:15:58.680> ities
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that will improve the possibility ities
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that will improve the possibility ities
of<00:16:00.399> a
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of a
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of a
uh<00:16:03.319> of<00:16:03.440> a<00:16:03.639> Saudi<00:16:04.519> Israeli<00:16:05.519> uh<00:16:06.040> new<00:16:06.680> uh
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uh of a Saudi Israeli uh new uh
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uh of a Saudi Israeli uh new uh
relationship<00:16:07.800> and<00:16:08.480> and<00:16:08.680> of<00:16:08.839> course<00:16:09.519> hurting
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relationship and and of course hurting
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relationship and and of course hurting
uh<00:16:11.360> hurting<00:16:11.839> Iran<00:16:12.560> it<00:16:13.000> actually<00:16:14.000> increases
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uh hurting Iran it actually increases
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uh hurting Iran it actually increases
their<00:16:14.800> Rel<00:16:15.120> their
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their Rel their
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their Rel their
relationship<00:16:16.920> uh<00:16:17.839> uh<00:16:18.639> uh<00:16:19.040> I<00:16:19.240> also<00:16:19.519> have
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relationship uh uh uh I also have
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relationship uh uh uh I also have
another<00:16:20.120> question<00:16:20.720> I<00:16:20.800> like<00:16:20.959> to<00:16:21.079> ask<00:16:21.279> more<00:16:21.440> than
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another question I like to ask more than
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another question I like to ask more than
one<00:16:21.800> so<00:16:22.000> you<00:16:22.120> could<00:16:22.279> skip<00:16:22.600> one<00:16:23.480> uh<00:16:23.800> and<00:16:24.040> that<00:16:24.319> is
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one so you could skip one uh and that is
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one so you could skip one uh and that is
um<00:16:25.639> this<00:16:25.800> comes<00:16:26.120> from<00:16:26.560> Mary<00:16:27.440> uh<00:16:27.839> Mary<00:16:28.160> elen
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um this comes from Mary uh Mary elen
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um this comes from Mary uh Mary elen
hegland<00:16:29.519> professor<00:16:29.959> ameritus<00:16:30.440> of<00:16:30.600> Santa<00:16:30.959> clar
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hegland professor ameritus of Santa clar
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hegland professor ameritus of Santa clar
university<00:16:31.959> in<00:16:32.079> the<00:16:32.199> United<00:16:32.519> States<00:16:33.120> do<00:16:33.240> you
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university in the United States do you
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university in the United States do you
think<00:16:33.680> Netanyahu<00:16:34.399> Bears<00:16:34.759> any<00:16:35.040> responsibility
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think Netanyahu Bears any responsibility
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think Netanyahu Bears any responsibility
for<00:16:36.120> all<00:16:36.240> of<00:16:36.399> this<00:16:36.680> by<00:16:36.880> promoting<00:16:37.480> illegal
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for all of this by promoting illegal
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for all of this by promoting illegal
Israeli<00:16:39.000> settlements<00:16:39.680> on<00:16:40.120> Palestinian<00:16:41.199> land
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Israeli settlements on Palestinian land
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Israeli settlements on Palestinian land
so<00:16:43.040> uh<00:16:43.399> why<00:16:43.519> don't<00:16:43.680> we<00:16:43.800> start<00:16:44.040> with<00:16:44.279> Aaron<00:16:45.279> uh
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so uh why don't we start with Aaron uh
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so uh why don't we start with Aaron uh
since<00:16:45.639> he<00:16:45.800> started<00:16:46.120> the<00:16:46.279> first<00:16:46.519> question<00:16:46.880> has
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since he started the first question has
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since he started the first question has
had<00:16:47.199> a<00:16:47.360> moment<00:16:47.600> to<00:16:47.800> rest<00:16:48.040> for<00:16:49.000> uh<00:16:49.440> uh<00:16:49.839> and<00:16:50.319> there
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had a moment to rest for uh uh and there
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had a moment to rest for uh uh and there
are<00:16:50.600> two<00:16:50.839> questions<00:16:51.240> you<00:16:51.360> can<00:16:51.800> answer<00:16:52.519> one<00:16:52.800> or
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are two questions you can answer one or
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are two questions you can answer one or
both<00:16:53.639> Aon<00:16:54.639> uh<00:16:54.759> on<00:16:55.000> Saudi<00:16:55.360> Arabia<00:16:55.959> I<00:16:56.079> think<00:16:56.639> in
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both Aon uh on Saudi Arabia I think in
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both Aon uh on Saudi Arabia I think in
Israeli<00:16:57.319> Politics<00:16:57.839> the<00:16:58.000> famous<00:16:58.519> saw<00:16:58.839> is<00:16:59.079> that
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Israeli Politics the famous saw is that
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Israeli Politics the famous saw is that
you<00:16:59.360> can<00:16:59.519> be<00:16:59.680> dead<00:16:59.880> or<00:17:00.079> dead<00:17:00.240> and<00:17:00.440> buried<00:17:01.440> I
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you can be dead or dead and buried I
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you can be dead or dead and buried I
think<00:17:01.759> that<00:17:01.959> the<00:17:02.240> US<00:17:03.000> Saudi<00:17:03.440> Israeli
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think that the US Saudi Israeli
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think that the US Saudi Israeli
normalization<00:17:04.679> process<00:17:05.039> is<00:17:05.280> just<00:17:05.679> dead<00:17:06.679> it's
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normalization process is just dead it's
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normalization process is just dead it's
not<00:17:07.039> Clos<00:17:07.360> for<00:17:07.520> the<00:17:07.679> season<00:17:08.160> but<00:17:08.439> I<00:17:08.520> would<00:17:08.720> note
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not Clos for the season but I would note
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not Clos for the season but I would note
this<00:17:10.280> that<00:17:10.439> if<00:17:10.600> in<00:17:10.799> fact<00:17:11.000> the<00:17:11.160> destruction<00:17:11.600> of
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this that if in fact the destruction of
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this that if in fact the destruction of
Hamas<00:17:12.199> occurs<00:17:12.679> and<00:17:13.280> that's<00:17:13.439> something<00:17:13.720> we
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Hamas occurs and that's something we
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Hamas occurs and that's something we
should<00:17:14.000> talk<00:17:14.240> about<00:17:14.760> Hamas<00:17:15.240> is<00:17:16.000> has<00:17:16.120> an
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should talk about Hamas is has an
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should talk about Hamas is has an
administrative<00:17:17.000> governing<00:17:17.559> Sovereign
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administrative governing Sovereign
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administrative governing Sovereign
structure<00:17:18.640> it<00:17:18.799> has<00:17:18.919> a<00:17:19.039> military<00:17:19.679> structure
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structure it has a military structure
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structure it has a military structure
it's<00:17:20.919> also<00:17:21.400> an<00:17:21.600> the<00:17:21.760> organizational
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it's also an the organizational
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it's also an the organizational
embodiment<00:17:22.919> of<00:17:23.039> an<00:17:23.240> idea<00:17:23.760> and<00:17:23.880> it<00:17:24.039> has<00:17:24.199> deep
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embodiment of an idea and it has deep
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embodiment of an idea and it has deep
root<00:17:24.839> social<00:17:25.199> and<00:17:25.360> economic<00:17:26.000> through<00:17:26.240> the
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root social and economic through the
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root social and economic through the
dawa<00:17:27.679> the<00:17:27.839> so-called<00:17:28.640> calling<00:17:29.799> to<00:17:30.799> uh
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dawa the so-called calling to uh
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dawa the so-called calling to uh
Palestinians<00:17:32.919> in<00:17:33.320> in<00:17:33.600> Gaza<00:17:34.000> since<00:17:34.200> the<00:17:34.320> early
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Palestinians in in Gaza since the early
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Palestinians in in Gaza since the early
80s<00:17:36.000> so<00:17:36.440> the<00:17:36.600> destruction<00:17:37.080> of<00:17:37.320> Hamas<00:17:38.200> and
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80s so the destruction of Hamas and
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80s so the destruction of Hamas and
Robin's<00:17:38.799> point<00:17:39.080> is<00:17:39.360> is<00:17:39.559> right<00:17:39.760> on<00:17:40.280> is<00:17:40.400> going<00:17:40.559> to
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Robin's point is is right on is going to
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Robin's point is is right on is going to
create<00:17:41.640> destruction<00:17:42.080> of<00:17:42.919> the<00:17:43.120> death<00:17:43.320> and
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create destruction of the death and
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create destruction of the death and
destruction<00:17:44.640> in
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destruction in
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destruction in
Gaza<00:17:46.520> largely<00:17:47.120> against<00:17:47.840> Palestinians
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Gaza largely against Palestinians
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Gaza largely against Palestinians
civilians<00:17:50.360> is<00:17:50.640> going<00:17:50.960> to<00:17:51.760> undermine<00:17:52.760> the
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civilians is going to undermine the
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civilians is going to undermine the
prospects<00:17:53.520> of
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prospects of
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prospects of
legitimizing<00:17:55.440> uh<00:17:55.600> any<00:17:55.919> Palestinian
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legitimizing uh any Palestinian
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legitimizing uh any Palestinian
interlocutor<00:17:57.760> that<00:17:57.919> is<00:17:58.440> wants<00:17:58.720> to<00:17:59.080> presume<00:17:59.559> to
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interlocutor that is wants to presume to
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interlocutor that is wants to presume to
negotiate<00:18:00.919> in<00:18:01.080> the<00:18:01.200> wake<00:18:01.440> of<00:18:02.039> this<00:18:03.039> uh<00:18:03.760> MBs<00:18:04.559> is
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negotiate in the wake of this uh MBs is
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negotiate in the wake of this uh MBs is
38<00:18:05.240> years
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38 years
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38 years
old<00:18:07.400> uh<00:18:07.600> assuming<00:18:08.000> he<00:18:08.159> gets<00:18:08.320> to<00:18:08.440> be<00:18:08.600> king<00:18:08.799> of
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old uh assuming he gets to be king of
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old uh assuming he gets to be king of
Saudi<00:18:09.280> Arabia<00:18:09.640> he<00:18:09.760> will<00:18:09.880> rule<00:18:10.200> Saudi<00:18:10.559> Arabia
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Saudi Arabia he will rule Saudi Arabia
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Saudi Arabia he will rule Saudi Arabia
arguably<00:18:11.400> for<00:18:11.640> 50<00:18:12.159> or<00:18:12.400> more<00:18:12.760> years<00:18:13.600> he<00:18:13.720> will
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arguably for 50 or more years he will
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arguably for 50 or more years he will
see<00:18:14.200> during<00:18:14.600> those<00:18:14.799> 50<00:18:15.200> years<00:18:16.039> six<00:18:16.360> or<00:18:16.640> seven
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see during those 50 years six or seven
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see during those 50 years six or seven
maybe<00:18:17.960> more<00:18:18.960> American<00:18:19.600> Presidents<00:18:20.600> come<00:18:21.559> and
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maybe more American Presidents come and
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maybe more American Presidents come and
go<00:18:23.120> he<00:18:23.240> is<00:18:23.440> pursuing<00:18:23.840> a<00:18:24.120> 360<00:18:25.120> degree<00:18:25.440> foreign
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go he is pursuing a 360 degree foreign
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go he is pursuing a 360 degree foreign
policy<00:18:27.360> not<00:18:27.600> tethering<00:18:28.039> himself<00:18:28.559> to<00:18:28.720> the
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policy not tethering himself to the
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policy not tethering himself to the
United<00:18:29.280> States<00:18:30.280> he<00:18:30.440> sees<00:18:30.840> China<00:18:31.360> Rising<00:18:32.360> in<00:18:32.480> a
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United States he sees China Rising in a
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United States he sees China Rising in a
Saudi<00:18:33.120> sense<00:18:33.480> which<00:18:33.600> is<00:18:33.840> important<00:18:34.400> he's<00:18:34.600> not
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Saudi sense which is important he's not
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Saudi sense which is important he's not
going<00:18:35.039> to<00:18:35.559> abandon<00:18:36.000> Russia<00:18:36.400> because<00:18:36.559> of<00:18:36.679> the
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going to abandon Russia because of the
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going to abandon Russia because of the
OPEC<00:18:37.400> plus<00:18:38.400> I<00:18:38.520> think<00:18:38.919> MBS<00:18:39.520> will<00:18:39.799> survey<00:18:40.280> the
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OPEC plus I think MBS will survey the
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OPEC plus I think MBS will survey the
wreckage<00:18:41.919> he<00:18:42.120> wants<00:18:42.440> things<00:18:42.720> from<00:18:42.919> the<00:18:43.080> United
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wreckage he wants things from the United
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wreckage he wants things from the United
States<00:18:44.799> much<00:18:45.000> more<00:18:45.280> important<00:18:45.720> frankly<00:18:46.159> than
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States much more important frankly than
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States much more important frankly than
what<00:18:46.480> happens<00:18:46.720> on<00:18:46.880> the<00:18:47.039> Palestinian<00:18:47.679> issue
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what happens on the Palestinian issue
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what happens on the Palestinian issue
for<00:18:48.159> him<00:18:48.440> that<00:18:48.559> was<00:18:48.960> clearly<00:18:49.320> the<00:18:49.480> case<00:18:50.039> before
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for him that was clearly the case before
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for him that was clearly the case before
the<00:18:51.200> Palestinian<00:18:51.760> issue<00:18:52.000> were<00:18:52.159> way<00:18:52.360> more
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the Palestinian issue were way more
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the Palestinian issue were way more
heavily<00:18:52.880> now<00:18:53.159> so<00:18:53.360> I<00:18:53.440> think<00:18:53.600> he'll<00:18:53.840> take<00:18:54.039> his
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heavily now so I think he'll take his
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heavily now so I think he'll take his
time<00:18:55.000> and<00:18:55.120> he'll<00:18:55.280> make<00:18:55.400> a<00:18:55.559> judgment<00:18:56.559> as<00:18:56.679> to
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time and he'll make a judgment as to
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time and he'll make a judgment as to
whether<00:18:57.000> or<00:18:57.159> not<00:18:57.400> a<00:18:57.600> he<00:18:57.720> can<00:18:57.880> get<00:18:58.360> everything
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whether or not a he can get everything
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whether or not a he can get everything
he<00:18:58.760> wants<00:18:59.120> from<00:18:59.760> this<00:19:00.159> Administration<00:19:01.159> which
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he wants from this Administration which
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he wants from this Administration which
is<00:19:01.400> a<00:19:01.559> mutual<00:19:02.000> defense<00:19:02.360> treaty<00:19:02.840> I<00:19:02.960> might<00:19:03.159> add
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is a mutual defense treaty I might add
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is a mutual defense treaty I might add
the<00:19:03.760> last<00:19:04.000> time<00:19:04.200> the<00:19:04.360> United
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the last time the United
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the last time the United
States<00:19:06.400> submitted<00:19:06.880> a<00:19:07.039> mutual<00:19:07.480> defense<00:19:07.919> treaty
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States submitted a mutual defense treaty
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States submitted a mutual defens