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nation.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Okay well Hello everybody and welcome to another exciting week, the joint CCS and CSI am book series between ucsd and UCLA co organized.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: My name is Clara data I am co director of CC is the Center for comparative immigration studies at uc San Diego and today we have the pleasure of hosting.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Dr James McCann professor of political science I purdue university professor Michael Jones Korea Presidents distinguished professor of political science and director of the Center for the study of race, ethnicity and immigration at the University of Pennsylvania.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: They will provide us a presentation of their book holding fast resilience and civic engagement among Latino immigrants.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: That presentation will last about 25 minutes, well then have the pleasure of hearing comments from today's discussing Professor.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Zoe harsh now professor of political science at uc San Diego and director of the inklings Center for social science, research.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Dr hodge now will speak for about 10 Minutes will then give the authors about five minutes to respond and we'll open it up to your questions and comments.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Here in the audience for the remaining about 20 to 40 minutes, if you would like to ask a question, we ask that you do so via the Q amp a function on your zoom window, you can also just raise your hand, if you prefer to be called out and just.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Ask your answer in person live, we can do that as well, so either use the Q amp a function, or just use the raise hand function okay well uh with no further ado let's turn it over to doctors McCann and john's Korea.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: alrighty well thanks so much Claire can you hear me okay.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: All right, good i'm gonna go ahead and screen share and let's let's make sure that this comes across.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: So.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Okay oops okay so.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Thanks, thanks to the organizers of this we've been looking forward to making this presentation, since time is short, Michael and I are just going to go.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: For a sort of broad overview of our book project and related work will also talk a little bit i'm sure about our data set that we collected, that is going to go live very soon.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And why don't I start by.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: sort of casting a broad net talking a little bit about the importance of resilience in democracies overall okay so let's note that in all democracies around the world.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: there's always going to be a greater number of highly office seekers rather than actual high offices for those office seekers.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: fulfill This is called the problem of ambition.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: in political science and it's really incumbent on democracies to figure out, you know what are the reasonable institutions and rules that are going to be, you know perceived as fair for winning going down that set of ambitious office seekers into a reasonable set of actual office holders.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: This whole system hangs on the premise that on successful candidates actually conceding defeat, if not gracefully at least definitively and in the US context in the presidential elections of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: 19 62,000 2016 those were very bruising very polarizing electro contests, and yet the losers readily conceded defeat, of course, having lived, most recently, through the 2028 presidential campaign Donald trump.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, really did a 180 degree turnaround on that norm, and it remains to be seen what the impact is of that will be on sort of democratic practice.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: But at the mass level for what it's worth much research suggests that in the United States and and other democracies thwarted voters attend to get over their losses with.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, not very many long lasting grudges some research even suggests that, in the aftermath of a loss.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know unsuccessful voters might even hold democracy and higher esteem, or have greater faith in democratic institutions so, to put it in Albert horseman's very well known terms.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Following a bruising electoral defeat, we would hope and expect to find voters expressing their loyalty to the political regime and it's been being willing to express their voice.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: In future election contests and very little exiting.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know the line that we hear all the time during elections that if candidate X wins i'm going to be moving to Canada well that that seems to be a rather rare event which is generally good news for democracy.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: OK, so now Turning to the subject at hand immigrants for Michael and me, we treat immigrants, following the 2016 elections as a hard case for political resilience.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: let's note that in the US nearly one out of five residents adult residence is foreign born so we're talking about a minority, but a fairly substantial minority.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And in the 2016 campaigns let's recall, as well the trump was unequivocally hostile to the core identities and interests of much of the foreign born population.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, at the same time, the norms of resilience after disappointment, this sort of losers consent idea might be less familiar and established for immigrants who are newer to the United States.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, if any, reminding is needed of the context there and the 2016 campaign let's recall that during this campaign trump was consistently and really vociferous Lee.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: voicing this this very strident anti immigrant agenda content analysis of trump's rhetoric during the 2016 campaign found that no subject came out as frequently.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: As immigrants and refugees during that campaign and for every one thing positive that was said about immigrants are refugees.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: trump said five negative things so we're talking about you know, a real real divisive.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Negative attack on immigrants and their supporters in terms of policies trump as well consistently advocated.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Anti immigrant policies that were at odds with you know previous republican nominees and certainly Democratic Party nominees as well, among the major.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Policies that he put forward where things like you know, building a wall between the US and Mexico and having Mexico pay for that world.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: dramatically increasing the number of deportation agents and increasing the number of deportations.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: He attacked sanctuary cities and threatened to block funding for those cities, he said he wanted to terminate the Obama era Dhaka executive order and then he wanted to place significant limits on refugees.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Especially refugees from majority Muslim countries Okay, so a very, very robust attack on immigrants and refugees came out during the campaign.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Immigrants were not deaf to this.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: They sort of you know they definitely received those anti immigrant messages and and reacted during the campaign by expressing.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: fairly negative views of trump himself Okay, so this graph shows the results on feeling thermometer zero to 100 point.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: aspect of scales going from very cold to very warm among Latino immigrants that's from our survey, which will detail in a few minutes and we put.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: The mean and the median scores on feeling thermometers towards trump alongside for Latino immigrants alongside us for Latinos.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: African Americans and whites and, as you can see, it just really jumps out in this graph that Latino immigrants, even in comparison to us born Latinos yeah they were very.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: They felt very cold towards trump the median itself clocks in at below two points on this 100 point scale, so we are talking about a very frigid reaction to the candidate, which is.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: completely understandable so so naturally, you would think in the aftermath of the election, there would be you know.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: A fair amount of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know negative feelings will unpack that in a second, but the so the key questions for our book and and I research okay are presented on this.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: This slide here, to what extent that the trump election lead to political disappointment among immigrants okay did it derail the trajectory of incorporation into us democracy.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: More specifically, do we see any signs of exiting and we think of exiting as kind of a soft and a hard exit a soft exit.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: would be indicated by apathy withdrawal disengagement demoralization cynicism about Americans or American government institutions and so on.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: A harder exits more in line with what hirshman would suggest, would be a literal kind of remove yourself from the country and many immigrants do have an exit option okay so.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: So we were you know interested in tracking both kinds of exiting and putting the two forms of exiting together.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: leads to a civic erosion hypothesis, the question mean that the election of an anti immigrant administration lead to the erosion of immigrants political trust advocacy and citizen and civic engagement.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know by by way of background the dominant media narrative if you think back to the time after the 2016 election reports on npr and the major news outlets and so on.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Really emphasized, there was a lot of fear and dismay among immigrants, so these these images here that we took from the Internet, really, really showcase that so.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: interviews with immigrant activists or immigrants running businesses and so on, they all said things like you know the reconsidering whether to remain in the country or.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Or you know that they're they're very apprehensive about what's coming there's this looming storm and so on Okay, so that was the kind of dominant narrative and we know in political science and implications of fear and anxiety.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: That these kinds of disquieting emotions might undercut civic engagement and be corrosive and all kinds of ways for democratic practice so Hence we wanted to investigate this more fully.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And we did so through analysis largely from from the surveys that we ourselves fielded they go by the name of the Latino immigrant national election studies.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: In 2012 Michael and I did our first blind study that was more or less field it in parallel with the American National Election study so For those of you who are familiar with that design it's a sort of pre election post election.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: survey that covers you know, a wide array of survey indicators in in our case, we ran this with sampling not conditioned on civic status or anything, so we have lots of non citizens as well as citizens.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: In total, just over 1300 survey respondents took part in that survey, then in 2016 we wanted to change the design a bit, and we were mindful of more longer term.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: dynamics and so we feel in a three way panel survey the first way started a little earlier in the election cycle August and September of 2016 when 1800.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Latino immigrants were randomly selected and interviewed by telephone.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Then, following the election, we recontacted as many as possible the contact rate as we report here.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Is 32%, which is a bit lower than what you would expect, for a more conventional panel survey, but it's about in keeping with immigrant surveys, this is a harder survey population and, in many ways.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: anticipating the attrition that we found, we also enrich the sample with 260 fresh respondents at that time, then in the summer of 2017 and we went back to the same.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: pool of respondents and supplemented as well with some fresh.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: folks and so so that's the line survey in a nutshell, let me just say i'm not going to go into many methodological details but we'd be happy during the Q amp a to talk about.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: sampling strategies survey design strategies for assessing attrition biases and things like that okay so on the findings.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know wasn't there indeed a lot of immigrant anxiety and what else was going on in terms of reactions within this population.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Okay, and the first thing to note here is that, yes, there was indeed a fair amount of immigrant anxiety, but that wasn't the whole story there was also a fair amount of anger Okay, and this this slide shows results on.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: responses to the question has trump made you feel angry has it made you feel afraid and so putting the two together what we find is it's a rather rare immigrant who did not have any such negative reactions.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: More than 80% in each survey way before the election and in the summer of 2017 voiced at least some negative emotion, with the principal disposition being both anger and fear and much of our book is dedicated to kind of parsing out the implications of these emotions or democratic incorporation.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: In terms of general views of where the country is going a huge uptick in disappointment with the direction of the country so by summer of 2017.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: What we see shown on this slide is that nearly seven out of 10 survey respondents said that the United States was on the wrong track as compared to fewer than half in October of 2012.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: No huge surprise there but we're just painting a picture of a decline and optimism.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Great rise and disappointment Okay, and then not a much more personal level, we asked survey respondents immediately after the election and then in the subsequent third wave.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: If they were worried about the deportation of a close friend or family member and again we see rather significant levels of anxiety about deportation.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: We also asked about concerns for family finances and we find similar kinds of anxieties about financial well being So what does this all mean in terms of attitudes towards American politics Americans in general, participation and so on.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Well, the next thing we're going to cover is immigrant resilience Okay, which is part of the subtitle for the book so i'm going to now turn the presentation over to Michael i'm going to stop screen sharing.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: and Michael you should be able to take it away.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Right so i'm gonna pick up where I left off.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So, seeing that, in the aftermath of the 2016 election immigrants are feeling this sense of a threat of fear anxiety.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and anger and So what are the implications, and so we look at it, a number of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: different sort of attitudes about how they feel about government, how they feel about society, how they feel about other Americans and one thing you see over this period.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: From 2012 for first line survey and then this period of 2016 through 2017 is increasing doubts about about government, so this is not too surprising, none of this is all not that surprising.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And I but what's interesting is that, despite again this anxiety, despite the feeling that the country is going off in the wrong direction doubts about government and their their.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Their their their signaling have a hard exit their plans to remain in the US or to leave for another country those don't seem to change actually.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Really at all over this period there's there's no sense of the democrats are kind of pulling back, and the same thing is true of their trust of Americans as people.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That doesn't seem to change very much over this period again from 2012 to 2017 so even with the election of trump so certain kinds of attitudes seem to hold stable, even as they're sort of perceptions of government.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Are sort of shifting markedly in a more negative direction, so this is all to give you sort of a broad.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sense a broad picture of what's going on but we're going to leverage this this panel, besides that we have to get a better some ways causal sense of what's going on with immigrant attitudes over this over this period so recall that we have three waves, so we have a wave.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: of where we surveyed immigrants before the elections and before trump yes, so in the summer of 2016 a second just after trump was elected.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In the late fall of 2016 and then about six or seven months later in the summer of 2017.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So we're using the sort of first way to kind of baseline The second way that so kind of first word the intervention if trump is elected.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And the third is sort of gauging what the what the change in attitude says over that over that period so and then sort of controlling for anxiety and disappointment and other demographic factors so we're able to model.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: This sort of impact of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Change and change over time so just to give you an example, this is looking at the impact of anxiety anger and disappointment on civic attitudes.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And, in particular, whether government is run for big interests, and you can see that in the sort of the bottom, there are the effects of summer of 2017.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That immigrants attitudes about us being on the wrong track and trump prompting anger and fear or anger and fear all have significant effects those.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sort of awkward colored bars indicate significance significant effects on.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: How Americans feel about about government and their their negative perceptions of government so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So not to show you model after model or, but this is so, we use this modeling strategy.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And a number of dependent variables and basically what we find is that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: anxiety anger disappointment all have sort of similar effects on the perceived trustworthiness of government officials, the amount of corruption in government, but they don't have.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The the similar kinds of effects on overall trustworthiness of Americans on immigrants own have feelings of patriotism or their plans to remain in the country, so in some sense these models.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sort of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: ECHO, the the the earlier findings we showed you.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So another question, we had was well, what about variations by specific status so whether someone is a naturalized citizen or a Green Card holder a permanent resident.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: or in the United States without documentation, what about how much time to spend in the United States or their state of residents, so does it make a difference if someone is living in California or somebody is living in, say, Georgia or Arizona.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And their and their country of origin as well, so we include each of these in the model, so this is just to give you a sense of why state of residents might make a difference.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: This is, this is the sort of range of laws passed across states in this time period between 2005 and 2012.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And for some states are essentially more welcoming they're passing pieces of legislation that indicate some openness to to immigrants, and particularly to undocumented immigrants and some states that are passing legislation that's precisely the opposite.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So where we construct a.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: scale.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: kind of positive and negative laws passed across the States and use these two model.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: include the to include these on the model, so the interesting thing is that these effects of anxiety anger disappointment or not significantly moderated by.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Immigrants civic legal status.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: By the time the United States by.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The state of residents, or by country of origin will say there are some some ways in which some cases.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: When an immigrant from Mexico is somewhat more worried about having a family member or close friend deported than immigrants from other countries.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But, but some of these actually have to save quite surprising to me, I was very surprised that, for instance, legal status with immigrants didn't have more of an effect.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But but know that these these were not part of the story, so the overall story is fairly consistent.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That immigrants feel the sense of anxiety and threat as trump as elected, this has an effect on their attitudes toward government depression of the country, less so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: about other Americans and doesn't really seem to change their their decisions about remaining the United States So what does it do for immigrant engagement.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So this is just a slide to give you a sense that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In this period of 2017 2018 2019 this is in the trump has been elected trump administration taking office.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: there's a lot of attention in particular on on women's marches at the interesting thing is, and this count of protest events by year and issue area is that in throughout this period.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: There are more immigrants rights marches taking place every year than in fact there are women's marches and.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And, and so there's there's a good deal of mobilization going on here in this slide we show this is the response from our surveys of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: How, you know what percent of our respondents indicated that they had joined a rally a protest or demonstration and the first bar up above is from the Latino national survey in 2006 and there you see it all.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Over 30% of respondents indicated that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: participated in one of these kinds of protests or demonstrations.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So, if you look at the lower bowl ours in 2012 the percentage is significantly lower and entering into the 2016 sort of elections and it's lower a bit lower skill, but my 20 the summer of 2017.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You see, almost doubling of the percentage of immigrants who are indicating they've participated in one kind or another of these rallies and protests or demonstrations, to support immigrants and immigrant rights so so what effect.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Does this.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The impact of civic stress.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Have on involvement in March or protests to support immigrants in the first year, the trump administration, and you can see that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That feeling of anger fear response to trump's election being worried about deportation of someone close to you both are significant have significant effects on the chances that responded will say that they were involved in a marcher protest.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So is it just about protest and we find that no it's actually it's, not that this there's a relationship between protest activism and more conventional kinds of participation so whether it's attending a Community meeting.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: being engaged in Problem Solving with your neighbors are members of your Community contacting an official that for each phase there's there these forms of engagement, are interlinked and they all.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Yes, sort of increase over this over this period, so if they're.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Thinking back to our hypotheses, you know the civic erosion hypothesis, we were thought or might be that, in the aftermath of the election of aware immigrants and, particularly, particularly threatened.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and disappointed by the election results would lead to a kind of alienation or withdrawal, and this was as che pointed out kind of the media narrative after the 2016 election that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The fan of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: fear that immigrants are going into hiding that they were withdrawing them, this is not at all what we find.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That we do see mistrust increase mistrusting government again not mistrust and other Americans loss of patriotism or desire to leave United States instead we posit there's a kind of loyal opposition and in the kind of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: terms that we were using earlier that that yes, Latinos or Latino immigrants are disappointed by the outcome of the election.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And and it's in it that disappointment runs deep their cynicism about government leadership or cynicism about government.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But it, it does not seem to translate into soft exit of where people are withdrawing from civic life or disengaging from again from from either their role in their communities or or hard exit so there's no there's no indication there's increased desire to leave the United States.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So our overall takeaways are that fear anger, the sense of threat disappointment do not lead to alienation and withdrawal, but, but the opposite.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And that there aren't as many variations as certainly I might have expected based on citizenship status time in the US State of residents country of origin.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And that all of this is sort of part of a narrative about where where first and second generation Latinos are poised to be critical actors were certainly on played a critical role where 10% of all voters were immigrants about 20% were immigrants for their children.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And we're tilting towards the Democratic Party, but probably you know so safe to say not solidly incorporated into either party so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Here we're sort of what happened in the aftermath of the 2020 elections, so you had very high Latina turnout in 2020 and we argued that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The pattern of Latino participation reverted back to its pre 2016 norm, so a lot of the media coverage after 2020 was that there was unusually high Latino turnout and favor of the Republican candidates.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: We have a more temporary view of this, and when we're happy to talk about.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, there is a rebound and support in 2024 for the Republican Party it's unlikely that there'll be anything like and we haven't seen anything since like a post mortem among Republicans of what they could do better to reach out to Latino voters, as there was in 2012.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And, and the Biden administration, for its part, has been signaling these moves on immigration, although it's become quite complicated, even in the last couple of weeks.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Exactly how they're going to proceed on on immigration issues but they're clearly trying to diffuse immigration as an issue.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And this may have a positive effect for first and second generation Latino voters.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But this is a quite complicated.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sort of conversation when i'm sure that will have, and with that really that's it, this is giving you a very sort of quick and dirty overview of this of this project.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You, thank you for the opportunity to be here with you and will say that we're in the process now of making these data public so will be will be depositing of these data with the ICP so far, and so you guys can can have at it and then explore these data yourself, so thank you.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Oh Thank you so much, my ears perked up when you said you're making these data public that's amazing data that you have and really an amazing set of findings, so now let's turn it over to Professor hodge now with a set of comments.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Okay Hello everybody and i'll just Okay, so I probably won't take up.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: All of my time here, I have a problem which is, I really like this book I think it's compelling I think it's convincing.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: So I don't have a lot in terms of critiques here i'll mentioned a couple things, but I think it's worth reiterating highlighting the contributions that are here right so.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: You you got to see it a little bit yourself, but let me just emphasize that number one you know you should read this book, because it does address this this really critical question, which is how do Latino immigrants respond.

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To threat.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: And it's critical not only, I think, to understand Latino immigrants themselves and their behavior but this as Michael was sort of.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: intimating at the very end of the talk is critical for understanding the future to directory of American politics and maybe America in general right so.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Are we going to see an exit on one side or are Latino immigrants going to join in actively and and coalition as their numbers increase and.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Potentially dominate republican politics over the long term right so.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: This is, this is about america's potential civil war and who's going to win and who's not going to win, and so this wide ranging implications.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: So the the the the second contribution here is in terms of answering that question, and that is the book I think convincingly shows that the threat posed by Donald trump and, more broadly, the American party towards.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Immigrant Latinos did in fact lead to fear and anger and ultimately just trust in government um that I think is you know exactly what we would expect to find, but the key here is that these two authors.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Provide needed the best data to answer this question it's timely data strong sophisticated analysis, then you had clear exposition, and so it it that answers is is you know again thoroughly convincing.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Perhaps more surprising is that they show equally convincingly that that threat doesn't lead to withdraw so it's not like.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: To others indicated that there were Latino immigrants are thinking about leaving the country in larger numbers they're not disillusioned with America as a whole, and so the.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: day they fear they fear what's happening, they feel threatened by what's happening, but they are not.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: shying away from that and that you know gets to the holding fast the resilience and in fact the results suggest that Latina immigrants may be, in fact, increasing their engagement, at least in terms of protest so.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: there's always, I think, then, demonstrates the resilience of immigrants in the face of a major threat.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: think the other really interesting thing about this book and and was, I think, surprising is that the the the book shows that the resilience of Latino immigrants really doesn't vary across the immigrant population in terms of.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: As Michael and Jay were saying national origin group the the nature of local state politics.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: and so on and so forth, so it's it's a general story about Latino immigrants and it's an important story Okay, so I was.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: yeah, so I am critiquing so I had to at least come up with I can come up with anything really.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: damning on the data or analysis side, but I will quibble a little bit about the setup of the book which doesn't have some implications for the analysis but largely it's just to quibble.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: The setup of the books or starts with trump as a significant break from the past that that he is different, unique and unique threat to the Latino immigrant population.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: And you know, one could argue that trump is largely just a continuation of strategy by the Republican Party to target immigrants, and in particular Latino immigrants to to garner white votes, and while trump may have been more explicit and more extreme he was just one.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: More one further step on this long pathway, and if we take that.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: interpretation, then the question is how much change should we have expected pre trump versus post trump and and so, if immigrants are feeling a threat.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: If the system is problematic before and after how much change should we see and then another This is even more of a quibble.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: The book starts off by talking about the potential and maybe even the likelihood of bipartisan consensus on.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: comprehensive immigration reform and certainly there are there were some Republicans on the ticket in 2016 that we're talking about it but it's also just as true that say in terms of Congressional voting patterns.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: there's been more and more partisan polarization on immigrant on immigration over time.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: So in lieu of really any reasonable critiques of the book, I thought I might just spark some conversation.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: By raising some questions about things that aren't in the book, but that the book, I think, can speak to and the Office can speak to it right so.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Michael finished by talking about who to vote in 2020 and I think he is right that the sense of a major movement towards the Republican Party is totally overblown.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: But on the other hand, if you know, we take the book at its face value, which I do and and fear and anger among the Latino population and particularly among Latino immigrants grew markedly.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Why was there, not a move away from trump and the Republican Party, like, I think that the you would based on this book have predicted a significant shift away from trump and why did we not get that would be one question.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: The second question here is looking at sort of whether there's variation within the Latino immigrant population and the book does look at a lot of different dimensions but.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: I still think it's possible that the threat may lead to mobilization of some and deterrence of others, and then you get the sort of a net, no, no effect that you do in the book and it's possible that.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: One thing that might a sort of structure that differential effect is something like advocacy right So do I think I have a say in American government so i'd be interested to see whether.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: That variable is into data set maybe.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Another it's coming becoming public somebody could look at that and sort of look to see whether you know your attitudes about.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Does my voice matter does that structure, how that affects you and what you do post that.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Then another I think interesting question to think about is this book sort of suggests that.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Major threats within the country don't change the trajectory of the immigrant population in terms of a hard exit right so but clearly it looks like changes in the threat level within a country like the United States and and perhaps declining threat post.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: have led to a larger numbers of immigrants potentially coming to the country, so do we make a distinction between immigrants who are already here and their behavior towards the threat versus immigrants who could be coming to their country and.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Their behavior in terms of migrating or not migrating based on the existence and growth of a threat or non threat.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: Also, be very curious, I know that the data didn't cover Asian immigrants, but how the authors think this story fits or doesn't fit with Asian Americans or Asian immigrants.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: And then, finally, there was all this interesting data and analysis of protests in the book that essentially concluded with you know the variables that we have.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: don't explain the protests and shifts in protests and again i'd be curious to see and hear from the authors.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: What they would investigate or what they think actually does drive protests and and the timing of the protests that they.

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Zoltan Hajnal, UCSD: talked about but, all in all, again, I think this is a fabulous book people should get it, it addresses again a really important question, and it provides a compelling well documented answer to that question so i'll stop here.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Okay Thank you so much Dolly so do the others want to take a few minutes to respond.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah I can jump in first just thanks a million solely for you know all of these very thoughtful questions that you're raising at the end and the careful read.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Let me, I mean one thing that springs to mind when you ask you know how different was trump.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And I can see where that's coming from you know, is a difference of degree and magnitude or is he just a different animal.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I mean one thing we do do in the book is kind of play up in the first chapter, a bit of a disconnect between the base of the Republican Party and the elites, you know the jeb Bush sort of level of leads.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And so I think you can see the roots of I don't call it trump ISM or something or the anti immigrant agenda, you can see that, as early as the 90 so, so in that sense.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I see your point, you know that he might be more in the mold of the base that became known as the trump base, but it was sort of you could the seeds of that early on, so that's that's that's a terrific I think valid.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: very valid point.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Okay now but, that being said.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I think, at least at a rhetorical level during the campaign's there is strong evidence, you know that the the article that I referenced.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Is by social a sociologist at Harvard Lamont is her name.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: came out in the British journal of sociology a few years ago, the content analyzed the rhetoric and.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And trump clearly was.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: fixated on immigrants and refugees, I had a research assistant look at the extemporaneous speech.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: That he gave and and also compare it to.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Earlier republican nominees.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Going back several election cycles and democratic nominees and trump is by far the way I mean he's so different rhetorically, that it would be hard, I think, to say that's a difference of degree it kind of looks like just a real difference so.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Michael do you want to.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: jump sure i'll jump in on a couple of the questions I mean I was.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: I think.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The same really great questions great set of questions to to jumpstart this conversation, and they.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: I think we could have done a better job I think of looking to see whether some immigrants from mobilized in summer D mobilized I think I think you're right that in the end, where we're taking sort of a kind of net.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Of were immigrants send it up and not and not sufficiently dis aggregating with it with potential pathways are for for at least some immigrants who might might be D mobilized.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know that said then.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know where.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: We may be sort of underplaying the effects mobilization for a pretty large group of immigrants and even if we're saying is that there may be some people who are D mobilized That means that the the.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The the effects for the people who are mobilized or even larger than than what we're showing.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But it's worse, I think that was that it's definitely something that I think we should have done better.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But the question about what happened in 2020 is so complicated with Jay and I have talked about this a lot.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Because we were this book was coming out in the sort of context of the 2020 elections and the immediate aftermath, and we were getting a lot of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Press and having these conversations with with journalists and they were all asking us this question like you know, basically, what what is going on.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: I think the problem is, if I think the answer is not a simple one.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And the I think Jay and I.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Have sort of settled on that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Was was a sometimes a reset that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The two to one split that you've seen over many general election cycles sort of reasserted itself.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So more or less breaking and democrats favor but a third of or a little bit less of Latino voters go for the Republican Party.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But So why was that with trump still in office and.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Nothing a lot of different plausible explanations.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And you know.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: I will just mention a couple here one of the Is that the kind of anti immigrant rhetoric that trump was playing up in 2016 leading in 2016 elections kind of tapered off in 2020 and was not as it's not as visible.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And the things that were very much on people's minds they think the 2020 were the pandemic and the economy and on both those things I think Latinos boat it more like other voters.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: This The second thing I want to mention is that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The democrats nominated by and bite has a complicated history with Latino Latino immigrants, he was obama's Vice President and Obama.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Obama was the reporter and chief he was.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: He he deported, a lot of immigrants.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And I don't think and i've done other work and with other surveys.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know the if you remind people of the fact that Obama deported immigrants it it shifts people away from the from the Democratic Party, and so by nominating Biden, is that, as their candidate people.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: party was essentially reminding Latinos and Latino immigrants about that history, and I think it's a complicated history so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: yeah so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: An Asian says immigrants, I just wanted to mention quickly cuz I think they're kind of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In some ways fit in with the story that we're telling about threat and the reaction is to threat and mobilization.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But the story is different, and I think that if we were if we were if we had been able to do a similar kind of three wave panel study, there would have been some similarities and some differences and it's these patterns.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And I can yeah i'm happy to talk about that more but.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: that's not really a great answer but anyway so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: let's open it up.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Great Thank you so much, yes let's definitely open it up, I i'm using my chairs prerogative and follow up with a couple questions that are close to what.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Zoe had mentioned, and you guys even recognize in your conclusion that this is actually, this is a surprising finding right that.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: You know that they they respondents are expressing fear and anxiety, but they are also expressing.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Willingness to protest, and so I had a couple questions about that the first is did you.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Did you look at this by state, so you showed us a sneak graph that shows that you know California is like a very inclusive permissive state, and then you have these other states that are much more restrictive and so are the.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Are the respondents who are saying they're willing to protest are they more likely to be in California, for example, are you able to tell us what how that varies by state.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah I can jump in on that Michael.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: For starters yeah what we do, we couldn't get terribly granular I mean it's it's a big survey, but it's not a huge survey, so that we can parse out things to specifically with respect to state.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: What we did do and looking at state level variations is look at that scale that was on one of the slides that Michael covered that showed how restrictive versus welcoming a State is in terms of its policy dispositions and we use that as an interactive variable to look at.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: What we looked at whether it predicted, you know, the level of just just kind of mean level of attitudes and participation, and so on, and we looked at.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Whether it would interact with some of these measures of of you know anxieties fear you know anger and so on, so the main predictors and.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: The expectation was that in in more supportive environments right where there's less of a fear of sort of reprisal or so on, you know you might see more engagement and and you know more corrective action, perhaps.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah, but we did not just as Michael said, and as the book makes out yeah we didn't get a whole lot of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: From that that variable even though you know, of course, you know the state.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: disposition the policy, especially matters an awful lot in terms of the day to day lives of immigrants and all kinds of ways, but with respect to the things we were modeling we didn't get a whole lot of differentiation based just on that kind of continue on.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: yeah just just to.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Add to that a little bit there's another project that i've been working on.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: with another group of scholars looking at.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Inter group contact and.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Trust and civic engagement in the metro Atlanta area in the metro Philadelphia area and part of the reason why we picked to those two metro areas was because.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: We expected there would be more there's some differentiation between sort of immigrants in a more welcoming or at least neutral state like Pennsylvania in a more in a more someone for hostile state like like Georgia.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And the interesting thing is that we don't find that at all like they're like the those state level differences don't play out in the way that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That these groups interact with one another, or the overall findings that we have, which I think is super interesting.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But anyway, I don't know what what that says.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Okay, so i'm moving on to the questions i'm seeing in the Q amp a so first question from David cook my team thanks for this terrific presentation among Latino immigrants do you see any significant deviation from overall trends we found a religious affiliation.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So this is probably one of the one of those areas that we probably should have spent more time and these.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: there's a lot of correlation between so the main differences are Catholic and Protestant.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And Latino Protestants are largely evangelical and.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: It was a lot of correlation there with their their.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Their partisan leaning things.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But jaded we do anything that we look at at at at correlation between religion and then fear anxiety withdrawal.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: i'm there it's a rich data set my goal.

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And we.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Have choices were made.

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yeah.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: No that's that's.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: that's another paper waiting to be written.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Data really.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: says it can be developed, no, we did no religion appears, but in the form of the extent of religious practice Okay, so when modeling involvement and.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Participation different modes of participation yeah we included that as a predictor, among others, you know, to put alongside the kind of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: anxiety anger, etc, etc, and and so that's yeah that's where it appears and and so that that very much as scratching the surface in terms of you know, religious differences.

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Okay.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: next question is from Albert monkey.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: It might be related to some of the stuff we were talking about about the surprising finding of feeling anxiety, but yet still being willing to protest because the question is about.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: First, thank you for your great presentation, how do you conceptualize and define resilience, would it be possible to identify factors or dynamics that are favorable to recreating resilience and spaces of mutual support.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: yeah I mean so.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: When we're talking about resilience in a in a.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: fairly narrow away put of this this.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Our do people stay.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: engaged do they do their attachments do they retain their attachments do they retainer for the faith and institutions in the aftermath of a intellectual loss if they find a threatening.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And the answer to that is yes, yes.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Now this is despite as.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Many of you have pointed out that this kind of some surprising finding about fear and an anchor.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In China there's a talking about this quite a lot as well and there's it's there's a bit of discussion this about this in the book about you know there's a literature about in social psychology in particular about the effects of fear versus anger versus other kinds of emotions on.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: On your.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Your engagement.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And usually these are these things are seen as as having quite different effects, I mean one thing we didn't get really get into into the talk is.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That but Jay mentioned in his in the presentation is that you know, we found that actually most respondents don't are not simply fearful or and they're not usually just simply angry there's some combination of these things they're angry and fearful.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But the.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But the effects of fear and anger or actually for what we're looking at not that different their their their their their motivating people.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In their engagement.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, even as they're also making them feel less happy about the direction of the country and government, but you should jump in.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah no that's that's all right, let me just tack on to that to say that we do realize resilience can be understood and interpreted in many different ways so so in our case.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: We thought of resilience just in terms of attachments you know how how sturdy are these attachments towards the United States and how.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: How how engaged are immigrants, in spite of the strong headwinds.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And and but that you know, but there are other I mean we realized that there are other ways to understand resilience and and if if i'm sort of understanding what the question is alluding to it sort of you know, inner personal resilience or.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, keeping keeping engaged in in in networks of support to things like that and yeah the line study might be able to address.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: That in some sense but that that was not sort of analytically you know, our main focus it really was rooted on kind of the trajectory of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Political acculturation and resilience being understood, as you know how far how deep.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Does the disaffection go right does it does it start and stop with concerns about governing institutions or is it more generalized across all of American society and across respondents themselves as.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: participatory actors and and the fact that it's a constrained effect just limited to the institution's themselves, we took I mean our shorthand for that was resilience that that's what we landed on because it shows the kind of resilience and acculturation patterns.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Thank you um let me jump over to David Fitzgerald who has his hand up.

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David FitzGerald: I thanks very much so, I have a question about these.

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David FitzGerald: The gender breakdown of the trump voting Latino population in 2020 and is that gender gap any different than it is for say native white voters.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I yeah I can jump in and i'm working off of memory David Thank you yeah thanks for the question.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: At some point in the campaign and I forget what the final exit poll showed but, but during the campaign, there was a gender gap among Latino.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: voters.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: But it was not as as great as with the.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Overall electorate okay so so it was there, it was significant, but it was somewhat constrained and and I guess owing to the fact that within the general electorate, the gender gap is.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: gap is just grown so much over recent election cycles Michael just an accord with what you're remembering I don't have the XL find.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: me funny because this is one of the things that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That he has come up is one of the possible explanatory.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sort of factors.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Increased Latino support for the Republican Party 2020 is looking at gender both saying machismo among men and whatever deference women, women I don't know how it was being spun but.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But in order to make that argument you have to be able to place the Latino gender gap in in sort of a context of the larger gender gap, and there I think Jay is exactly right that.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The Latino gender gap is is smaller somewhat smaller than the overall gender gap, so if there are these weird gender dynamics among Latinos and you have to sort of say how they're different than the larger gender gap and the larger gender dynamics.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And so I still think that people are in this sort of casting about, for you know how to how to explain what they saw sort of a puzzling result in 2020.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Which again just to reiterate that Jay and I don't actually think it's that puzzling it's sort of return to a to a norm.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And if anything that 2016 was a bit of an outlier that Latinos were less likely to vote for republican candidate than they had been historically and very much, I think, because trump made his anti immigrant rhetoric so so front and Center.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: If I can just you know tack on to that yeah, and this is a point that relates to what you're saying Michael about you know, maybe over reporting.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: minor differences of.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: shifts in.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Among Latino voters just the other day I downloaded the.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: National Election study that has been released for 2020 and.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: and

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I believe they only have the.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: First way the pre election wave of the study, so you can't look at actual vote choices which that's asked in the post election wave.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Okay, but it's a panel back Okay, and so I merged the 2016 responses with the 2020 pre election responses.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And sorted out Latino voters and so you can do a cross tabulation to look at individual level shifts and there's not very much shifting going on there's a lot of continuity as often as I recall 40 45% of the Latino voters were consistent democrats meaning, you know Clinton, then by.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: about a dozen you know 12% there abouts were consistent trump supporters and when you look at movement from you know Clinton to trump then in 2020 or trump to Biden.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: there's not very much a few percentage points and it's like this much difference from democrat to republican versus republican to democrat and and so, so I mean that so different that it has to be trivial statistically so.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: it's so hard, because a lot of the narratives that come out are the narratives that come from the exit polls, and we know there's so many problems with the exit polls, and then we have to fight these initial narratives with like much higher quality data and so yeah.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Well there's a sort of yeah you know the the dog biting the person versus the person by the in the dog kind of low quality to this that the journalist yeah our attendees.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: So our next question is from Leslie a yellow does the book talk about an increase of protests or civic engagement within the undocumented community after the 2016 election.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: yeah The short answer is yes, I mean there's that we find this increase in protest activity across across all or entire sample the and it's true, regardless of whether you're undocumented or have a permanent residence or whether you're a citizen.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know the.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The aftermath of 2016 it was one of our one of the very clear findings, is that this this protest behavior increases.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: there's a question in the chat from Terra car lemke very straightforward methods question how did you define protest events and then determine the number.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah I can jump in on that.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: That one slide that Michael showed with the four bars, there was a variety of instrumentation there.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: In the line study in in the third wave we asked over the last three or four months have you, you know turned out for in support of him, for I forget in in support of immigrant rights Have you taken part in a demonstration a march or some other protest.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: activity in support of immigrant rights or in support of immigrants is what we asked okay.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And before the election, we didn't ask that exactly we did ask about rallying just.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: general political rallies during the campaign so that was the closest comparison, we could get to the same is for the 2012 lines.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: We asked about.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know sort of campaign based rallying and then in the 2006 survey that was on that slide it was a bit different still I.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Think something since the beginning of the year, as a Pew survey and they asked you know, is this year Have you taken part in protest or demonstration and supportive immigrants.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Tara does that answer your question.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Was will see.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: To type it in it's related to a question I had which how much should we worry about response bias right and people saying they will they have.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: participated, but, but now you you've you've you've made them feel these emotions right they they feel angry and and and anxious and.

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Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: You know, maybe you could speak a little bit to kind of the process of of interviewing these people and and the the interviewers and you know the the trust that's established between the interviewer and interviewee.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah sure I can jump in again Michael.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Go ahead.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You quit yeah words okay so almost all of the surveys, the vast majority were.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: conducted in Spanish, with native.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Spanish speakers by the.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: respondents preference.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: We worked with a firm with.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Deep experience interviewing immigrants, including for political kinds of surveys.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know and and the much of the instrumentation was field tested, a lot of it was adapted from the American National Election study Spanish version, wherever possible, we tried to go with very standard sorts of wordings.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: To get as valid you know responses as possible, you are right that that building rapport is is a very big deal as especially when it's through the phone rather.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: than.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: in person, and you can.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Take a lot of time, you know steps were taken to reassure.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: And certainly per the IRB right, we had to tell the respondents please you know if you're uncomfortable responding in any way that's fine.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, we can just skip so so those were.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: precautions taken, then.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: At the end of each survey way we did have interviewer.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Responses asking.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, were there any times when the responded didn't seem cooperative.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Or you know or was there any suspiciousness on the part of it, you know these kinds of questions to look at the general impression of quality, and you know there were.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: There were some respondents you know we can say you know.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: That everybody was uniformly 15 to be cooperative and so on, so there but there's not that much variation and in some analysis that that that we've done.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: You know, just as, and this isn't in the book, but just as a sort of.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Just just for our own sake, you know we've looked at kind of doesn't make a difference if we select out people you know those few people who were deemed to be uncooperative or or so on and and really know.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: I mean it doesn't so.

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So.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: It is possible to check the quality but but point very well taken at the same time, we are talking with you know, this is a vulnerable population in some respects and and the material we're going over.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: is controversial right.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: To say the least, and in.

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Jay McCann, Purdue: Some cases.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: yeah I mean there's.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Now, having done a number of surveys and worked with.

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Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Both in qualitative and quantitative context i'm always very sensitive to.

443

01:07:43.530 --> 01:07:56.610

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The possibility, there are two kinds of of possible possible problems, one of them is the one that Jay has talked about where there's an item in a in a questionnaire and a survey that.

444

01:07:58.590 --> 01:08:02.940

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That is problematic for for the person you're you're talking to.

445

01:08:04.650 --> 01:08:19.260

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And so there are different ways, you can see whether an item is problematic, you know people can and the the survey, they can skip the item, they can refuse to answer, and there are also ways in which people can signal that they're they're being made uncomfortable.

446

01:08:21.480 --> 01:08:25.320

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And we can stay was pointing out, we don't we don't find a lot of evidence of that.

447

01:08:26.700 --> 01:08:34.080

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: is different kind of worry and I hesitate to mention even mentioned this, because raises a whole set of issues around.

448

01:08:34.710 --> 01:08:46.320

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Around surveys and and conducting surveys with vulnerable populations and it's that so let's say I mean there's there's a possibility that we're we're we're getting an overall.

449

01:08:47.190 --> 01:09:04.410

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: kind of sampling bias, or the kind of people who are willing to sort of pick up the phone and answer questions on a survey, so the problem isn't during the survey, the problem is who's actually answering the phone to to take the survey.

450

01:09:05.430 --> 01:09:19.350

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And it could be that we're we're under estimating the the people who are in fact very fearful and very, very anxious because they're not the people who are going to be answering the phone and talking to us to answer a survey.

451

01:09:20.820 --> 01:09:21.630

and

452

01:09:25.170 --> 01:09:31.080

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So, so there is that possibility, I think you know we try.

453

01:09:32.550 --> 01:09:45.030

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, to see whether there are sampling errors like you know, are we capturing the people who we think we're already talking to the people that we think we're we should be talking to and then and then.

454

01:09:46.080 --> 01:09:53.580

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Building in kind of waiting strategy so that, if there are imbalances that were accounting for it.

455

01:09:55.200 --> 01:10:07.170

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But that is something I just say this as someone who has done the surface, it always worries me and and we, and I think we should be worried about whether we're accurately capturing.

456

01:10:08.220 --> 01:10:12.060

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The opinions of the people that we say we say we're representing.

457

01:10:15.090 --> 01:10:15.660

Absolutely.

458

01:10:18.450 --> 01:10:25.260

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: So another question in the Q amp a, so this is from Chelsea booster smelters who, thanks you for the amazing presentation and asks.

459

01:10:26.070 --> 01:10:33.720

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: The book says there is currently a large population migrating from Asia to the US then from Latin America, so a larger population.

460

01:10:34.380 --> 01:10:45.210

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Why does the US Government hold more strict policies for Latin American people's wanting to migrate to the US or is this change due to fear from Latin American people would be migrants.

461

01:10:46.470 --> 01:10:47.430

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So.

462

01:10:48.720 --> 01:10:54.210

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: This is a complicated question but I don't think it's either this thing I mean there's.

463

01:10:56.160 --> 01:11:00.420

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: This this pattern of seeing a.

464

01:11:01.860 --> 01:11:07.110

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: rise and immigration from Latin America in the.

465

01:11:08.520 --> 01:11:21.960

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Mid to later part of the 20th century, and then a rise in Asian and population from Asia, and now superseding that popular that immigration from Latin America has been those patterns have been going on for a while.

466

01:11:24.270 --> 01:11:35.580

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So the best explanation of this, I think, is that i've heard is Doug massey's explanation about why we would expect to see immigration from Latin America decline.

467

01:11:36.930 --> 01:11:45.600

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, basically sort of peaks in the 90s and early 2000s and then declines and it's simply has to do with the demographics, of the region.

468

01:11:46.800 --> 01:12:05.220

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That employee immigration from Mexico has to do with the relative use bubble that form, then as families grow larger in the mid 20th century and then dominance gets smaller as the as the century progressive so you have a bubble of people who are who are.

469

01:12:06.600 --> 01:12:09.540

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: At the right age, the right demographics, to my.

470

01:12:10.680 --> 01:12:14.760

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: fate and then that that group of people that, like the time.

471

01:12:16.530 --> 01:12:24.510

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Now you could argue that, if you look at the current people crossing the southern border today.

472

01:12:25.650 --> 01:12:32.790

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, many of those people are not from Mexico they're from Central America and it's there's a whole different dynamic there that's driving that migration.

473

01:12:33.090 --> 01:12:41.760

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And it's also partly demographic it's about again who, who is willing and capable of migrating it's all there's also this whole set of pressures.

474

01:12:46.680 --> 01:12:48.600

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sequence again many decades.

475

01:12:50.100 --> 01:12:54.660

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So this is all to say that I think they're they're larger demographic pressures and.

476

01:12:55.920 --> 01:13:06.750

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And that have led to a both of rise and then sort of decline of migration from Mexico and the rise of migration, Central America and a rise and migration from from Asia.

477

01:13:08.580 --> 01:13:12.810

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But that's a whole conversation the whole That would be a whole course all by itself.

478

01:13:13.950 --> 01:13:14.400

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: So.

479

01:13:17.400 --> 01:13:18.930

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: yeah summarized in two minutes.

480

01:13:20.460 --> 01:13:23.580

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: So our next question is from our very own Roger London.

481

01:13:26.850 --> 01:13:27.300

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: muted.

482

01:13:29.760 --> 01:13:40.710

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: Thanks stream Michael has been a terrific presentation and fascinating book, I guess, I have two possibly three questions still which might be contradictory, but i'm going to pose them nonetheless.

483

01:13:41.400 --> 01:13:51.780

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: On the one hand, I I guess i'm wondering about the the framing of the of the project and the book that and, and that is, you know you raise the possibility that.

484

01:13:52.500 --> 01:13:59.850

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: Given the tournament American politics that Latino immigrants might up for exit where they're kind of exit.

485

01:14:00.510 --> 01:14:05.880

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: In the ma conf literal sense go home or just exit in the sense of detachment but.

486

01:14:06.360 --> 01:14:14.250

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: i'm wondering whether that's the right frame I mean in many ways couldn't you couldn't you make the argument that this is a, this is a trapped population, I mean.

487

01:14:14.730 --> 01:14:21.870

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: home is less attractive than ever and construct, however, bad we things were under trump and there were certainly terrible.

488

01:14:22.650 --> 01:14:28.860

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: It was still an awful lot better than most of the countries of origin with things, perhaps, certainly if we think about.

489

01:14:29.430 --> 01:14:38.190

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: Central America, maybe Mexico parts of Latin America that things deteriorated even more rapidly and at the same time that this was the population.

490

01:14:39.150 --> 01:14:50.100

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: That well it couldn't, of course, engage in the type of circular migration to which Mexican immigrants have been habituated for a long period of time.

491

01:14:50.820 --> 01:14:58.890

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: And there was always and from for at least the undocumented share this population, which I would think is about 30 35%.

492

01:14:59.550 --> 01:15:03.990

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: they're also trapped there's no way to legal status and who knows when that's going to happen.

493

01:15:04.530 --> 01:15:14.640

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: So that, given the fact that this is a population with nowhere to go and with and and who's settlement in the in the United States has been growing, so the attachment.

494

01:15:15.000 --> 01:15:25.230

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: kind of spent here has to increase aren't these precisely the conditions that would make them all the more resilient that would make them more likely to protest more likely to engage however miserable.

495

01:15:25.500 --> 01:15:40.110

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: The conditions were because that's the only option, they have so that's kind of question number question number one now question number two which may be goes against that question is that the thing that really surprised me and listening to your presentation is that.

496

01:15:41.670 --> 01:15:55.680

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: This is also a population is very heterogeneous, I mean with respect to national origin with respect to socioeconomic status with respect to citizenship and legal status and those differences i've been much greater than they were.

497

01:15:57.660 --> 01:16:08.430

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: Maybe even 2012 certainly 1015 years ago so i'm just surprised that you didn't find you I mean you kind of generalize it as population but i'm I am.

498

01:16:08.970 --> 01:16:18.420

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: I guess i'm not fully willing to to accept that generalization seems to me the underlying sources of head or James junaid he should have been very powerful and then my last question is.

499

01:16:19.530 --> 01:16:28.620

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: And perhaps I missed this just how interested in this in in the election politics, where where where he responded so I mean I took a quick look at the.

500

01:16:29.760 --> 01:16:40.110

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: survey to them towards a pretty contested election and reasonably close but barely fit a little over 50% said that they were somewhat or a lot interested.

501

01:16:40.470 --> 01:16:49.830

Roger Waldinger, UCLA: And I don't know how that compares to what you find from the end, yes, but it's not an overwhelming amount of interest in a highly contested election So those are my three questions.

502

01:16:54.030 --> 01:16:59.640

Jay McCann, Purdue: um y'all can chop and thanks for all of that Roger these are great comments.

503

01:17:00.570 --> 01:17:09.780

Jay McCann, Purdue: I think there is much more that can be said about the heterogeneity of effects, I mean we we landed on the ones that seemed most reasonable.

504

01:17:10.350 --> 01:17:28.290

Jay McCann, Purdue: But certainly not the full kind of set of different you know you mentioned, you know there were a lot of different demographic background variables that you underline heterogeneity that might have been relevant, in addition to the ones we pursue so so I yeah I would agree that.

505

01:17:29.310 --> 01:17:40.590

Jay McCann, Purdue: We can look, you know more more extensively at national origin or you know issues of class or you know, there are a lot of lot of different ways to cut the data.

506

01:17:43.320 --> 01:17:55.260

Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah terms of political interest yeah that at one point, I think, with the 2012 study it's been a while, but I did I recall doing a comparison between us born Latinos as.

507

01:17:57.570 --> 01:18:06.300

Jay McCann, Purdue: shown in the election study and then the lines study and differentiating the naturalized lines respondents versus the non citizens and so on.

508

01:18:07.350 --> 01:18:24.420

Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah and and there is a drop off included there, there is a distinction between citizen and nonsense and in terms of political interest, you know it's it's significant but substantively as I recall it wasn't hugely you know there wasn't a huge amount of separation.

509

01:18:25.800 --> 01:18:34.620

Jay McCann, Purdue: From my you know from my vantage point that the level of interest among non citizens is striking because.

510

01:18:35.070 --> 01:18:44.700

Jay McCann, Purdue: One could start out with the assumption that that it should be really low and it just was only you know modestly lower than for naturalized citizens and useful and Latinos.

511

01:18:45.270 --> 01:18:52.470

Jay McCann, Purdue: that's a recollection I couldn't put a finer point on that, but as I recall, there was some some.

512

01:18:53.370 --> 01:19:08.130

Jay McCann, Purdue: significant degree of attentiveness to American politics and and also in terms of just actual participation in in campaign analytics there, there was a fair amount of that going on as well, so.

513

01:19:11.430 --> 01:19:12.900

Jay McCann, Purdue: Michael do you want to jump in on.

514

01:19:13.950 --> 01:19:14.400

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: shore.

515

01:19:15.930 --> 01:19:21.570

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: sort of the framing either Rogers is, as always, you ask these kind of hard hitting questions.

516

01:19:23.490 --> 01:19:30.630

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: On the premiere of the project I sort of hard to exit and soft exit so I kind of agree that you know.

517

01:19:31.890 --> 01:19:38.910

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: There are reasons to to think that people don't won't really take take the hard exit option.

518

01:19:39.930 --> 01:19:47.160

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But we don't actually spend a whole lot of time on this in the book it's I mean it's really the soft exit that we're more interested in that that.

519

01:19:48.720 --> 01:19:56.970

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know, again, this is in the context of a of a media narrative and the larger narrative it's all about with fraud going into hiding pulling back.

520

01:19:57.420 --> 01:20:07.710

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And and their and their theoretical expectations to think that people under threat do this they they they was troll they pull back they protect themselves.

521

01:20:09.360 --> 01:20:19.980

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And and that's not what we find and I think I disagree, to think that that's that's their own that's that's their only real alternative, I think.

522

01:20:20.400 --> 01:20:30.870

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: I I think it's much more likely to that if people are feeling threatened their expectation should be that they that they try and protect themselves and pull back.

523

01:20:32.250 --> 01:20:35.190

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: i'm still a little surprised that that that wasn't what we found.

524

01:20:37.020 --> 01:20:50.550

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: That that if you look at protest activity in particular that goes up and he looked at other forms of civic engagement it hold steady so there's there's no sign of soft exit.

525

01:20:53.010 --> 01:21:00.270

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And I am again i'm I guess i'm also surprised that there isn't the kind of heterogeneity if the population isn't showing up more in our.

526

01:21:01.980 --> 01:21:05.400

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: In our findings, I again i'm surprised by this too.

527

01:21:07.200 --> 01:21:08.070

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: and

528

01:21:09.180 --> 01:21:17.400

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: You know there, it could be as Jay was saying that there's some other kind of heterogeneity that we're not fully, taking into account that that would do more.

529

01:21:19.200 --> 01:21:19.650

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: But.

530

01:21:24.270 --> 01:21:24.930

Jay McCann, Purdue: Michael I guess.

531

01:21:25.470 --> 01:21:30.270

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: we'll just wait will say one thing, so one thing is just a colleague of mine here, Dan Hopkins has been.

532

01:21:30.870 --> 01:21:34.950

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: wrote a book and he was making this argument that one of the things that's been happening in American politics is that.

533

01:21:35.670 --> 01:21:42.810

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Local and state differences in American politics have been diminishing, and if we have this this national narrative of politics.

534

01:21:43.470 --> 01:21:58.470

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: that everyone is subjected to and we're all we all vote now, at every level whether it's, for you know your City Council member or for your state representative or for a member of Congress is it for voting for President, like everything is everything is seen through a part isn't lens.

535

01:21:59.760 --> 01:22:01.440

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And I don't think that it's.

536

01:22:03.030 --> 01:22:18.510

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: The one reason why we may not be seeing a lot of heterogeneity record heterogeneity may not be playing out in our in our findings is that immigrants are subject to this to that they're part of this huge national narrative of for everything is framed through this part isn't lens.

537

01:22:19.620 --> 01:22:30.780

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: And and they're they're picking that up to, and this is some ways is what what Jay and I were looking at it about how Americans learn about about politics and through these campaigns so anyway Jay.

538

01:22:31.320 --> 01:22:39.600

Jay McCann, Purdue: yeah well, I was just jumped in and actually allude to the point you were making just now, but by saying that you know, in the sort of trump era.

539

01:22:40.380 --> 01:22:49.890

Jay McCann, Purdue: In the general political environment we're finding a sort of one size fits all reaction so that immigrants who with deep roots or or thin roots and you know.

540

01:22:50.310 --> 01:22:57.210

Jay McCann, Purdue: Mexicans and non Mexicans, and so on, they all kind of behave roughly in the same way, and one of the things that.

541

01:22:57.750 --> 01:23:09.450

Jay McCann, Purdue: Michael we talked about, and I think it's in the book, but I know we've at least talked about it that that a sort of one size fits all scenario is in keeping with what you're saying about dan's work but also.

542

01:23:10.200 --> 01:23:22.950

Jay McCann, Purdue: In the kinds of signaling coming out of the party system, in particular, out of the trump White House that that there really was a sort of very broad based line of attack on.

543

01:23:23.400 --> 01:23:37.230

Jay McCann, Purdue: Immigrants and and other groups that did not differentiate and that could have had the consequence of blurring any you know pre existing lines of heterogeneity right in terms of the response.

544

01:23:42.990 --> 01:23:57.030

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Okay well on that note, I want to thank our panelists and our audience and encourage you to come to next week's book talk la rising Korean relations with blacks and Latinos after civil unrest.

545

01:23:57.420 --> 01:24:06.300

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: By Chilean park professor of anthropology and Asian American studies at UCLA so thank you again everybody, and I hope you have a wonderful Friday and a wonderful weekend.

546

01:24:08.340 --> 01:24:09.660

Michael Jones-Correa, Penn: Thanks I think so much.

547

01:24:10.590 --> 01:24:11.850

Claire Adida (she/her), UCSD: Great Thank you.


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