Was the Rise of Islam a Black Swan Event?

A Black Swan Event is by definition a highly improbable happening with a massive impact. No one questions the impact of rise of Islam, but just how improbable was it? Two of its central features look very unlikely against the background of earlier history: the appearance among the Arabs of a new monotheistic religion, and the formation of a powerful state in Arabia. Does that add up to two Black Swans, or do they cancel out?


Michael Cook is the Class of 1943 University Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, where he has taught since 1986. He has written on a variety of topics in Islamic history; his most recent book is Ancient Religions, Modern Politics: The Islamic Case in Comparative Perspective (Princeton University Press 2014).

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Duration: 49:45