U.S. Middle East Policy During a Pandemic, a Social Crisis, and an Election Year

An Online Event with Zev Furst

Zev Furst, a leading global political, business and communications strategist, will discuss current US policy, considering the pandemic, the death of George Floyd, and US elections. Research Professor Steve Spiegel will moderate a discussion based on audience questions.

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View the Presentation Slides

You may view Zev Furst's slides by clicking here. Please contact CMED if you would like permission to make any further use of the slides.

About the Program

This talk will focus on how domestic political considerations in the months leading to the U.S. presidential election in November are shaping, and in turn are being shaped by both the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and its policy toward the Middle East.  The program will include a presentation by Zev Furst, followed by an audience question and answer session, moderated by Research Professor Steven Spiegel.

This live event is organized by the The Center for Middle East Development and co-sponsored by the following UCLA institutions: Luskin School of Public Affairs, Burkle Center for International Relations, Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, and the Department of Public Policy.  

About the Speaker

Zev Furst is a leading global political, business and communications strategist who has advised political leaders, corporate executives of Fortune 100 companies, and major nongovernmental organizations. He has managed and worked on presidential and congressional campaigns in the United States, as well as elections in France, Germany, Italy, Venezuela, Israel, Mexico, the Palestinian Authority, Ukraine and Japan.

Mr. Furst is the Chairman and CEO of First International Resources, an international corporate and political consulting firm he founded in 1992. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC.

About the Moderator

Steven L. Spiegel serves as Director of the Center for Middle East Development at UCLA. Through the innovative and informal negotiation techniques he has developed, Professor Spiegel helps produce cutting edge ideas for promoting Middle East regional security and cooperation through a broad variety of publications.

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Duration: 01:23:13

CMED_talk-qh-31g.mp3

Transcript:

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thank you for joining us during the

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moment of silence for in honor of mr.

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George Floyd I would like to I would now

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like to welcome you to see Matt's second

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virtual webinar I'm Manny jad the deputy

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director of the center for Middle East

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development we'll begin shortly but

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first I wanted to share a few notes with

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you while you can see our panelists we

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cannot see or hear you if you're joining

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us using zoom please note the chat box

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at the bottom of the screen we will

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share announcements during the talk with

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you there if you have questions for our

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speaker please type them in the Q&A box

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and also add your name your country

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and/or affiliation before you ask the

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question keep your question concise so

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that we can answer as many questions as

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possible during the Q&A since the talk

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will be recorded your name country

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and/or affiliation will be announced

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only the SEMA team will be able to see

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your questions in some rare cases we

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will answer your question in writing in

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the Q&A box if you're joining us on

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YouTube you will not be able to ask a

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question because comments will be

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disabled we're recording the entire

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presentation today and the recording

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will be available after the event on the

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sea bed web page YouTube page and

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Facebook page we hope that you enjoy

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today's very timely talk now it's my

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distinct pleasure to introduce you to

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see meds director professor steven

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spiegle Thank You Manny let me welcome

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you to a very special meeting with zebb

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first that will cover the American

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political campaign the impact of the

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corona virus the effect on America's

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relationship with the Middle East and

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the impact of America's society and

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politics of the crisis ignite ignited by

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the death of George Floyd

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let me begin by thanking our co-sponsors

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all from UCLA the lessons School of

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Public Affairs the vertical Center for

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international relations the lioness

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Nazarian Center for Israel Studies and

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the Department of Public Policy and we

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are so delighted that so

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you have choices chosen to join us our

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speaker today is that first is a very

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special internationally renowned

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corporate and political strategist who

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has advised numerous world leaders chief

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executives and some of the world's most

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successful corporations and these are

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just a small number of his experiences

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and activities it is no wonder that he

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can deal with several current crises and

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issues simultaneously ladies and

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gentlemen

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zebb first thank you Steve before I

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begin I want to caution everyone and

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frankly question myself that we're

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witnessing an unprecedented and

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unimaginable series of profoundly

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critical challenging and dangerous

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events from the murder of George Flinn

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to the Cova 19 pandemic and the economic

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the deep economic recession engaging or

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participating in a session whose

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objective is to offer a realistic or

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honest analysis of the state of the u.s.

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presidential campaign or predicting its

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outcome

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is in my opinion a fool's game under

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normal circumstances all the more so

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today so with this in mind let's begin

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and I admit at the outset that I am a

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congenital political fool I'm sure many

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of you are aware of the famous quote of

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Tip O'Neill that all politics is local

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this is even more so in an election year

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when an incumbent may use foreign policy

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as a tool of distraction to draw voters

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attention away from domestic problems in

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an effort to improve his chances of

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being reelected Donald Trump had

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expected to win his second term in the

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White House on the strengths of a

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booming economy a robust stock market

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and a historically low unemployment rate

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kovat 19 has put an end to that strategy

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instead over 100,000 Americans have lost

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their lives more than 40 million

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Americans have lost their livelihoods

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the economy isn't freefall and the shape

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and timing of our eventual economic

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recovery is uncertain add to this the

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protests over the murder of George Floyd

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in the hands of the Minneapolis police

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that have engulfed the nation and we're

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dealing with a confluence of crises that

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is unprecedented in American

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presidential politics as a result the

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election on November 3rd will serve not

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only as a referendum on President

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Trump's record of managing kovat 19 or

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an expression of public confidence in

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his ability to get the economy growing

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again it will also serve as broad

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judgment of his ability as president and

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as a human being to bring this divided

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nation back together and set it on

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course toward a spiritual recovery

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however policy and politics are one in

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the same for the Trump administration

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and serve Trump's over arching political

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goal of winning a second term in the

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White House in that sense US policy in

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the Middle East is just another tool

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that the true

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campaign is utilizing to distract the

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president's electoral base and make the

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election about anything Israel or Iran

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or China or Russia and now largely

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peaceful protests which Trump portrays

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as domestic acts of terror accept what

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it is really about what this election is

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really about is Trump's management of

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coronavirus and the ensuing economic

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collapse as well as his deafness to the

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racial and socio-economic disparities

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that have been amplified not only by

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covered 19 but by his inability or

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refusal to acknowledge the deep pain of

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the african-american community and the

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endemic and historic racism that's

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deeply embedded in segments of the white

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community this strategy doesn't strike

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me as very effective

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Trump's base of largely white

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working-class conservative rural voters

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and evangelical Christians already

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narrow in 2016 has shrunk even further

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as a larger portion of women and

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suburban voters abandoned the Republican

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Party in the 2018 midterms

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additionally recent polling has shown

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that voters over 65 are beginning to

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turn away from Trump over his management

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of the corona virus pandemic finally

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Trump's response to the murder of George

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Floyd and subsequent protests is further

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harming his reelection chances by making

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voters more likely to support his

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Democratic opponent Joe Biden something

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that I'll be discussing at a later point

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so let me begin first with Trump the

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evangelical community and Israel let's

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begin with the roll is realest playing

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in this year's presidential election it

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would be a mistake to think that the

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Trump administration's pro-israeli

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policies from moving the US Embassy to

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Jerusalem leaving the Iran deal and

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recognizing Israel's annexation of the

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Golan Heights were devised in an effort

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to increase Trump's share

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of the american-jewish vote I have

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always believed that it would be a

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catastrophic event it would take a

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catastrophic event for a Republican

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nominee to get more than 30 or 35

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percent of the Jewish vote in fact

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polling of American Jews has

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consistently shown that the majority

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oppose these measures the one exception

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is the Orthodox Jewish community whose

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members overwhelmingly support Trump

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however their numbers are too small to

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make any sort of electoral difference in

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the presidential campaign

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so rather in my opinion the ultimate

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target group for these policies are

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evangelical Christians in the United

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States as many of you know the State of

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Israel Israeli control of Jerusalem and

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the West Bank hold deep religious

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meaning for the evangelical Christian

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community in the United States as the

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u.s. grows more racially and ethnically

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diverse as well as less religious it is

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white evangelicals in particular who

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have emerged as a major building block

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of the Republican coalition 26 percent

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of voters self-identified as white

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evangelical Christians in 2016 of those

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81 percent voted for Trump according to

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Pew Research the 2016 national election

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pool exit survey estimated that white

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evangelicals made up 46 percent of

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trumps coalition compared to just 9

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percent of Clinton's simply put if

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President Trump does not maintain and

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even increase his support with this

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group he will be just another American

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looking for a new job come January 2021

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to appreciate just how much electoral

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influence evangelicals have keep in mind

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their significant share in swing states

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like North Carolina where they represent

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38 percent of the electorate Michigan

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where they represent 28% and Wisconsin

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where they represent 27% in a Pew

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Research survey carried out in February

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2020 on the eve of the kovat 19 outbreak

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81% of evangelicals said that shrimp

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fights for their cause

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76 percent of evangelicals said they

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agree with him on most issues and 66

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percent said that the Trump

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administration has helped their

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interests and they have a good reason to

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think that way since his election Trump

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has appointed two conservative Supreme

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Court justices and named more judges all

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hardline conservatives to the appellate

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courts than any other president during

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the first three years in office

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considering many of the Trump appointees

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relative youth his agenda the Trump

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agenda will continue to impact our lives

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long after President Trump himself has

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gone from the White House when it comes

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to foreign policy Trump has also

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delivered on his campaign promises to

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the evangelical community by relocating

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the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem

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and withdrawing the u.s. from the Iran

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nuclear deal all of that was good but

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perhaps not good enough even though

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white evangelicals turned out to vote in

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the 2018 midterm congressional elections

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in record numbers making up 26% of voter

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turnout despite being only 15 point

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three percent of the voting population

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they're much more of the general

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population their support for Republican

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candidates decreased by six points from

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2016 to now in 2016 they were at 81% as

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I mentioned and now they're at 75

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combined with diminished support from

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other major religious groups including

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Catholics and other Protestant groups

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the myth

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terms cost the Republican Party control

261

00:11:55,380 --> 00:12:01,410

of the House of Representatives in

262

00:11:57,810 --> 00:12:04,680

Congress more recently Trump's job

263

00:12:01,410 --> 00:12:07,680

approval among white evangelicals has

264

00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:09,900

fallen dramatically to 55 percent the

265

00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:13,770

lowest rating since the start of the

266

00:12:09,900 --> 00:12:15,320

kovat 19 crisis and down 7 points from a

267

00:12:13,770 --> 00:12:17,550

high point in mid-april

268

00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:20,820

similarly his approval among the general

269

00:12:17,550 --> 00:12:25,890

population declined by 6 points during

270

00:12:20,820 --> 00:12:28,710

that period to 40% if anything the car

271

00:12:25,890 --> 00:12:32,190

novice the corona of the corona virus

272

00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:35,370

pandemic the ensuing economic recession

273

00:12:32,190 --> 00:12:38,040

and the current civil unrest are making

274

00:12:35,370 --> 00:12:42,630

donald trump's need for evangelical

275

00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:44,400

support even more urgent a recent visit

276

00:12:42,630 --> 00:12:46,770

to Jerusalem by Secretary of State Mike

277

00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:48,770

Pompeo illustrates the importance of

278

00:12:46,770 --> 00:12:51,870

Israel and Trump's re-election calculus

279

00:12:48,770 --> 00:12:54,270

Pompeyo was there presumably to try to

280

00:12:51,870 --> 00:12:56,490

come to an agreement with Prime Minister

281

00:12:54,270 --> 00:12:59,339

Benjamin Netanyahu on the scope and

282

00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:02,880

timing of a potential annexation of the

283

00:12:59,339 --> 00:13:05,730

West Bank in reality pumps objectives

284

00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:08,670

also included Iran China which we'll

285

00:13:05,730 --> 00:13:11,160

discuss later as well as an effort to

286

00:13:08,670 --> 00:13:13,410

burnish his own image and advance his

287

00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,540

own electoral ambitions that extend to

288

00:13:13,410 --> 00:13:19,290

the Senate and potentially the White

289

00:13:15,540 --> 00:13:22,080

House as you recall Trump's Mideast

290

00:13:19,290 --> 00:13:25,170

peace plan released in January clears

291

00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:27,500

the way for Israel to annex up to 30% of

292

00:13:25,170 --> 00:13:30,690

the West Bank the Trump administration

293

00:13:27,500 --> 00:13:33,270

however has since made clear that the

294

00:13:30,690 --> 00:13:34,589

annexation must be conditioned on Israel

295

00:13:33,270 --> 00:13:36,690

entering into peace talks with the

296

00:13:34,589 --> 00:13:39,620

Palestinians and coordinated with

297

00:13:36,690 --> 00:13:42,930

Washington over the past several weeks

298

00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:45,029

Trump administration officials have

299

00:13:42,930 --> 00:13:47,339

repeatedly communicated to the new

300

00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:48,810

Israeli government that the United

301

00:13:47,339 --> 00:13:51,120

States does not want Israel to make

302

00:13:48,810 --> 00:13:53,490

unilateral moves towards annexation at

303

00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:55,830

least not at this time

304

00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:58,620

Jared Kushner has consistently advocated

305

00:13:55,830 --> 00:14:01,140

for a more cautious approach that

306

00:13:58,620 --> 00:14:03,329

involves some sort unknown to us right

307

00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:05,430

now some sort of negotiations with the

308

00:14:03,329 --> 00:14:07,460

Palestinians and a certain degree of

309

00:14:05,430 --> 00:14:10,910

legitimacy from the Arab world

310

00:14:07,460 --> 00:14:12,980

to be sure persuading the Palestinians

311

00:14:10,910 --> 00:14:15,140

to return to the negotiation table

312

00:14:12,980 --> 00:14:17,779

perhaps with a counterproposal to the

313

00:14:15,140 --> 00:14:19,660

annexation plan would play well with

314

00:14:17,779 --> 00:14:22,490

Trump's evangelical supporters and

315

00:14:19,660 --> 00:14:24,800

strengthen his reputation as the deal

316

00:14:22,490 --> 00:14:26,930

maker in chief while temporarily

317

00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:29,089

stabilizing the situation on the ground

318

00:14:26,930 --> 00:14:32,839

at least until after the November

319

00:14:29,089 --> 00:14:35,000

election in the meantime kovat 19 has

320

00:14:32,839 --> 00:14:37,279

largely disrupted the political process

321

00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,370

in Israel once the public health

322

00:14:37,279 --> 00:14:41,990

situation is fully under control

323

00:14:39,370 --> 00:14:44,060

Netanyahu's agenda will likely be

324

00:14:41,990 --> 00:14:46,970

dominated by his corruption trial as

325

00:14:44,060 --> 00:14:49,279

well as some serious decisions his

326

00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:51,589

government he will have to make to help

327

00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:53,149

restart the Israeli economy after its

328

00:14:51,589 --> 00:14:56,029

shutdown which they are in the process

329

00:14:53,149 --> 00:14:57,640

of doing right now in this situation it

330

00:14:56,029 --> 00:15:00,170

becomes an open question whether

331

00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:02,779

Netanyahu would actually proceed with

332

00:15:00,170 --> 00:15:06,110

legal annexation as we understand it

333

00:15:02,779 --> 00:15:07,910

after July 1 by legal the jury

334

00:15:06,110 --> 00:15:10,010

annexation I mean that he would formally

335

00:15:07,910 --> 00:15:11,839

move ahead with bringing the question of

336

00:15:10,010 --> 00:15:12,560

annexation of the Jordan Valley before

337

00:15:11,839 --> 00:15:15,170

the Knesset

338

00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:17,600

another potential course of action which

339

00:15:15,170 --> 00:15:20,860

Israel could announce that it will

340

00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:24,110

purple it will permanently maintain a

341

00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:27,709

security border or a security forces in

342

00:15:24,110 --> 00:15:30,050

the Jordan Valley alternatively some

343

00:15:27,709 --> 00:15:31,940

believe that Netanyahu would go through

344

00:15:30,050 --> 00:15:34,400

with the annexation precisely in order

345

00:15:31,940 --> 00:15:36,620

to distract the public from the economic

346

00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,089

problems facing the country much like

347

00:15:36,620 --> 00:15:41,690

Trump is doing here in the United States

348

00:15:38,089 --> 00:15:44,380

as well as distracting his public from

349

00:15:41,690 --> 00:15:47,779

his legal problems as his trial begins

350

00:15:44,380 --> 00:15:49,850

others also point out that Netanyahu has

351

00:15:47,779 --> 00:15:52,820

a strong incentive to move ahead with

352

00:15:49,850 --> 00:15:56,089

annexation before the US election out of

353

00:15:52,820 --> 00:15:58,209

concern that Joe Biden will win in

354

00:15:56,089 --> 00:16:02,839

November and would dramatically reshape

355

00:15:58,209 --> 00:16:04,550

US policy on Israel and Palestine Biden

356

00:16:02,839 --> 00:16:05,690

supports the two-state solution as it

357

00:16:04,550 --> 00:16:08,149

was understood by the Obama

358

00:16:05,690 --> 00:16:10,399

administration and has pledged to

359

00:16:08,149 --> 00:16:12,560

restore diplomatic relationships with

360

00:16:10,399 --> 00:16:16,160

the Palestinian Authority severed by

361

00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:18,110

Trump however if he were elected Biden

362

00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,730

would unlikely apply significant

363

00:16:18,110 --> 00:16:21,320

pressure to Israel over the settlements

364

00:16:19,730 --> 00:16:23,540

or enter into new

365

00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,670

oceans immediately with the Palestinians

366

00:16:23,540 --> 00:16:28,100

he has also indicated that he wouldn't

367

00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:30,700

condition US military aid to Israel on

368

00:16:28,100 --> 00:16:33,080

its policies towards the Palestinians or

369

00:16:30,700 --> 00:16:37,040

he wouldn't move the US Embassy from

370

00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:38,210

Jerusalem back to television let me now

371

00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:41,000

briefly address the Trump

372

00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:42,910

administration's concerns about Chinese

373

00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,500

investment in Israel particularly

374

00:16:42,910 --> 00:16:48,530

sensitive technology and infrastructure

375

00:16:45,500 --> 00:16:51,680

projects such as Israel's 5g network and

376

00:16:48,530 --> 00:16:53,930

the strategic port of Haifa China has

377

00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:57,650

emerged here in the United States as a

378

00:16:53,930 --> 00:17:00,320

rare bipartisan issue in this year the

379

00:16:57,650 --> 00:17:03,170

presidential politics with both Trump

380

00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:05,240

and Biden and their campaigns seeking to

381

00:17:03,170 --> 00:17:08,150

position their candidate as the right

382

00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:10,910

man to take on Beijing and spending

383

00:17:08,150 --> 00:17:13,550

millions of dollars on ads attacking

384

00:17:10,910 --> 00:17:17,120

each other's record on China as overly

385

00:17:13,550 --> 00:17:19,310

accommodating President Trump is also

386

00:17:17,120 --> 00:17:22,670

specifically blaming Beijing for the

387

00:17:19,310 --> 00:17:25,339

pandemic that pushed the US economy into

388

00:17:22,670 --> 00:17:28,760

recession this message is resonating

389

00:17:25,339 --> 00:17:31,190

with nearly half of American voters 48%

390

00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,830

of Americans and roughly four and five

391

00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:36,350

Republicans who believe that China is

392

00:17:33,830 --> 00:17:39,650

mostly responsible for the current state

393

00:17:36,350 --> 00:17:42,460

of kovat 19 because the virus originated

394

00:17:39,650 --> 00:17:46,250

there according to recent polls in

395

00:17:42,460 --> 00:17:48,320

contrast 38 percent of all voters 61

396

00:17:46,250 --> 00:17:51,500

percent of Democrats and just 10 percent

397

00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:53,870

of Republicans believe that the u.s. is

398

00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:55,310

poor response to the pandemic is mainly

399

00:17:53,870 --> 00:17:56,230

to blame for the current state of

400

00:17:55,310 --> 00:17:58,160

affairs

401

00:17:56,230 --> 00:18:00,830

last year the Trump administration

402

00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:03,860

threatened that intelligence sharing

403

00:18:00,830 --> 00:18:06,290

with Israel could be reduced if they are

404

00:18:03,860 --> 00:18:08,710

not given reassurances that their

405

00:18:06,290 --> 00:18:11,720

concerns about Chinese investment in

406

00:18:08,710 --> 00:18:14,480

sensitive Israeli sectors have been

407

00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,580

taken care of this year a trump official

408

00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:19,100

said quote our concern about China

409

00:18:16,580 --> 00:18:22,130

doubled and tripled because of the

410

00:18:19,100 --> 00:18:23,810

corona virus if Trump is reelected the

411

00:18:22,130 --> 00:18:25,670

Netanyahu government will likely

412

00:18:23,810 --> 00:18:28,480

continue to reevaluate Chinese

413

00:18:25,670 --> 00:18:31,100

participation in sensitive projects

414

00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,490

gradually scaling down Israeli reliance

415

00:18:31,100 --> 00:18:35,660

on Chinese investment and technology

416

00:18:33,490 --> 00:18:38,660

u.s. pressure on Israel to

417

00:18:35,660 --> 00:18:41,090

jekt Chinese bids to build its 5g

418

00:18:38,660 --> 00:18:43,190

network infrastructure as well as

419

00:18:41,090 --> 00:18:45,890

Israel's recent selection of a domestic

420

00:18:43,190 --> 00:18:48,440

Israeli company for a major water

421

00:18:45,890 --> 00:18:51,590

desalinization project are the shape of

422

00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:54,260

things to come if Joe Biden becomes

423

00:18:51,590 --> 00:18:57,020

president he likely looked for ways to

424

00:18:54,260 --> 00:18:59,360

balance existing concerns about China

425

00:18:57,020 --> 00:19:01,730

with the Democratic Party's globalist

426

00:18:59,360 --> 00:19:04,100

worldview how far he may be willing to

427

00:19:01,730 --> 00:19:06,020

go to pressure Israel on the issue of

428

00:19:04,100 --> 00:19:10,580

China certainly remains an open question

429

00:19:06,020 --> 00:19:12,470

that I won't address Iran long before

430

00:19:10,580 --> 00:19:15,770

kovat 19 became a factor in his decision

431

00:19:12,470 --> 00:19:19,370

making President Trump used the u.s.

432

00:19:15,770 --> 00:19:22,520

strike that killed general Soleimani to

433

00:19:19,370 --> 00:19:25,100

Telegraph his toughness on Iran and his

434

00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,960

readiness to stand up for Israel which

435

00:19:25,100 --> 00:19:28,910

he did to the Republican Party voters

436

00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:32,210

who traditionally vote on national

437

00:19:28,910 --> 00:19:34,850

security concerns devastated by the

438

00:19:32,210 --> 00:19:37,700

coronavirus Iran has made a series of

439

00:19:34,850 --> 00:19:39,680

conciliatory gestures such as backing a

440

00:19:37,700 --> 00:19:42,170

pro-american prime minister in Iraq and

441

00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:44,300

ordering its proxy militias to cease

442

00:19:42,170 --> 00:19:48,220

their rocket attacks on American forces

443

00:19:44,300 --> 00:19:51,230

in order to avoid a direct confrontation

444

00:19:48,220 --> 00:19:53,300

Tehran believes could benefit Trump

445

00:19:51,230 --> 00:19:56,060

politically improving his reelection

446

00:19:53,300 --> 00:19:59,450

chances in November the u.s.

447

00:19:56,060 --> 00:20:01,400

reciprocated by granting Iraq a four

448

00:19:59,450 --> 00:20:04,850

month waiver from American sanctions on

449

00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:07,550

Iran so that it could buy Iranian gas it

450

00:20:04,850 --> 00:20:10,400

also reportedly allowed some frozen

451

00:20:07,550 --> 00:20:13,370

Iranian funds in third countries to be

452

00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:15,530

released to Iran those in similar

453

00:20:13,370 --> 00:20:17,900

measures albeit viewed as strictly

454

00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:19,310

tactical and temporary have somewhat

455

00:20:17,900 --> 00:20:22,120

lowered the pressure between the two

456

00:20:19,310 --> 00:20:25,100

governments distracted by kovat 19

457

00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:28,830

reducing the risk of a direct conflict

458

00:20:25,100 --> 00:20:31,289

in the near term

459

00:20:28,830 --> 00:20:33,210

ahead to November I would expect the

460

00:20:31,289 --> 00:20:35,370

Trump administration to continue its

461

00:20:33,210 --> 00:20:37,159

maximum pressure maximum pressure

462

00:20:35,370 --> 00:20:39,480

campaign against Iran including

463

00:20:37,159 --> 00:20:42,059

sanctions and military threats like the

464

00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:44,100

president's tweet from April that

465

00:20:42,059 --> 00:20:46,950

ordered the US Navy to sink any Iranian

466

00:20:44,100 --> 00:20:49,649

boats that harass American ships but it

467

00:20:46,950 --> 00:20:53,340

was never translated into official US

468

00:20:49,649 --> 00:20:55,409

policy if elected President Joe Biden

469

00:20:53,340 --> 00:20:58,159

has indicated that he would re-enter and

470

00:20:55,409 --> 00:21:01,260

expand the nuclear agreement with Iran

471

00:20:58,159 --> 00:21:03,179

but only if Iran first returned to

472

00:21:01,260 --> 00:21:06,980

compliance with the deals restrictions

473

00:21:03,179 --> 00:21:10,260

on the nuclear program Saudi Arabia

474

00:21:06,980 --> 00:21:13,110

covet 19 handed president Trump arguably

475

00:21:10,260 --> 00:21:15,840

his biggest diplomatic achievement in

476

00:21:13,110 --> 00:21:18,630

recent memory when he managed to

477

00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:21,090

persuade Saudi Arabia and the rest of

478

00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:24,360

OPEC nations to cut oil production as a

479

00:21:21,090 --> 00:21:27,269

way to protect the US oil industry from

480

00:21:24,360 --> 00:21:28,490

a historical coronavirus driven fall in

481

00:21:27,269 --> 00:21:31,950

oil prices

482

00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:34,950

Trump secured Saudi cooperation by

483

00:21:31,950 --> 00:21:36,840

putting into question the future of the

484

00:21:34,950 --> 00:21:39,149

Americans Saudi strategic partnership

485

00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:41,730

and hinting at a real possibility of

486

00:21:39,149 --> 00:21:43,409

withdrawing the roughly 3,000 American

487

00:21:41,730 --> 00:21:45,720

troops currently stationed in the

488

00:21:43,409 --> 00:21:47,549

kingdom when the cuts proved

489

00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:50,460

insufficient the Trump administration

490

00:21:47,549 --> 00:21:52,830

went two step further by announcing that

491

00:21:50,460 --> 00:21:54,389

it would remove Patriot missiles sent

492

00:21:52,830 --> 00:21:57,679

last fall to protect Saudi oil

493

00:21:54,389 --> 00:22:01,019

facilities after a drone attack by Iran

494

00:21:57,679 --> 00:22:03,779

when first I'm sorry when forced to

495

00:22:01,019 --> 00:22:06,360

choose between his affinity to Saudi

496

00:22:03,779 --> 00:22:09,600

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the

497

00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:13,260

demands of his Republican constituencies

498

00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:16,289

in oil-producing States Trump has made a

499

00:22:13,260 --> 00:22:18,090

choice to protect us as energy dominance

500

00:22:16,289 --> 00:22:21,029

something he views as a crowning

501

00:22:18,090 --> 00:22:24,059

achievement of his presidency one real

502

00:22:21,029 --> 00:22:26,070

way Trump could help the oil industry is

503

00:22:24,059 --> 00:22:28,559

to bring the corona virus outbreak under

504

00:22:26,070 --> 00:22:31,679

control so that people would feel safe

505

00:22:28,559 --> 00:22:34,830

traveling again but for now just remains

506

00:22:31,679 --> 00:22:36,929

in the future as a majority of Americans

507

00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:40,770

are still very wary of getting on a

508

00:22:36,929 --> 00:22:42,809

plane or taking long distance car trips

509

00:22:40,770 --> 00:22:45,030

now let's take a brief look where things

510

00:22:42,809 --> 00:22:48,000

stand - five months ahead of the

511

00:22:45,030 --> 00:22:49,559

November presidential election President

512

00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,380

Trump currently trails former Vice

513

00:22:49,559 --> 00:22:54,270

President Biden by seven but close to 8

514

00:22:52,380 --> 00:22:56,130

percent point eight eight percentage

515

00:22:54,270 --> 00:22:58,800

points in the National the National

516

00:22:56,130 --> 00:23:00,540

popular vote at forty nine point nine

517

00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,030

percent versus forty to one percent

518

00:23:00,540 --> 00:23:05,700

according to Real Clear Politics polling

519

00:23:03,030 --> 00:23:07,590

average this is an average this compares

520

00:23:05,700 --> 00:23:09,960

with forty four percent that Clinton had

521

00:23:07,590 --> 00:23:11,880

at this time four years ago and 42

522

00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:15,360

percent that Trump had at a similar

523

00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:18,030

point in the 2016 race public opinion

524

00:23:15,360 --> 00:23:21,179

research also shows the president is at

525

00:23:18,030 --> 00:23:23,580

a slight disadvantage in five of the six

526

00:23:21,179 --> 00:23:26,880

key swing states Michigan Pennsylvania

527

00:23:23,580 --> 00:23:29,670

Wisconsin Arizona and Florida and

528

00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:33,059

running head-to-head with Biden in North

529

00:23:29,670 --> 00:23:35,490

Carolina a few days ago the Fox News

530

00:23:33,059 --> 00:23:37,650

polls that came out show that shrimp is

531

00:23:35,490 --> 00:23:39,929

trailing Biden by nine points in

532

00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:42,840

Wisconsin forty percent to forty nine

533

00:23:39,929 --> 00:23:47,210

he's trailing by four points in Arizona

534

00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:49,710

42 to 46 percent of ID for Biden and

535

00:23:47,210 --> 00:23:51,840

yesterday's new war two days ago as new

536

00:23:49,710 --> 00:23:54,710

national monolith University poll that

537

00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:59,090

came out has Biden at fifty four percent

538

00:23:54,710 --> 00:24:02,190

compared to Trump's 41 percent in swing

539

00:23:59,090 --> 00:24:06,809

counties that were decided by less than

540

00:24:02,190 --> 00:24:09,660

10 points in the 2016 election Trump

541

00:24:06,809 --> 00:24:12,240

trails Biden in a tentative electoral

542

00:24:09,660 --> 00:24:15,000

college vote tally where his campaign

543

00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:17,220

can currently count on 204 electoral

544

00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:20,220

votes in his favor that's a combination

545

00:24:17,220 --> 00:24:23,429

of solid votes likely votes and leaning

546

00:24:20,220 --> 00:24:25,320

Republican votes out of the 200 needed

547

00:24:23,429 --> 00:24:27,710

to win the presidency versus Biden who

548

00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:30,450

can count on 232 votes

549

00:24:27,710 --> 00:24:33,510

Trump needs to win at least two-thirds

550

00:24:30,450 --> 00:24:36,390

of the popular vote in the six swing

551

00:24:33,510 --> 00:24:38,580

states which together account for 102

552

00:24:36,390 --> 00:24:40,740

electoral college votes in order for him

553

00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:45,720

to secure a second term in the White

554

00:24:40,740 --> 00:24:48,679

House in contrast Joe Biden needs just

555

00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:51,510

40% of those votes to win the presidency

556

00:24:48,679 --> 00:24:55,380

keep in mind however

557

00:24:51,510 --> 00:24:57,270

that these swing states have suffered

558

00:24:55,380 --> 00:25:00,830

significant health and economic damage

559

00:24:57,270 --> 00:25:03,390

from covered 19 in particular

560

00:25:00,830 --> 00:25:06,570

Pennsylvania with 20 electoral college

561

00:25:03,390 --> 00:25:10,170

votes Michigan with 16 electoral college

562

00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:12,920

votes Florida with 29 electoral votes

563

00:25:10,170 --> 00:25:15,290

are in the top 10 by the number of

564

00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:18,240

coronavirus cases nationwide and

565

00:25:15,290 --> 00:25:21,210

Michigan and Pennsylvania are in the top

566

00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:23,550

5 by the number of covered 19 deaths

567

00:25:21,210 --> 00:25:26,610

according to an analysis recently

568

00:25:23,550 --> 00:25:28,140

discussed in the New York Times Michigan

569

00:25:26,610 --> 00:25:30,840

also has the second highest unemployment

570

00:25:28,140 --> 00:25:33,180

rate in the nation at 22 point seven

571

00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:35,670

percent according to the US Bureau of

572

00:25:33,180 --> 00:25:39,840

Labor Statistics with Pennsylvania very

573

00:25:35,670 --> 00:25:42,810

close behind so looking at public

574

00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:45,150

perceptions of Trump voters perceptions

575

00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:48,450

of the way Trump is managing covered 19

576

00:25:45,150 --> 00:25:50,730

the resulting economic damage and the

577

00:25:48,450 --> 00:25:53,520

protest demonstrations over the murder

578

00:25:50,730 --> 00:25:56,010

of George Floyd are beginning to

579

00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:59,120

generate serious headwinds for his

580

00:25:56,010 --> 00:26:01,950

re-election public approval of Trump on

581

00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:04,470

coronavirus has been on the decline for

582

00:26:01,950 --> 00:26:06,750

the last two months it currently stands

583

00:26:04,470 --> 00:26:09,170

at forty three point three percent while

584

00:26:06,750 --> 00:26:13,410

fifty-four point four percent disapprove

585

00:26:09,170 --> 00:26:16,440

more than six and ten voters 62% don't

586

00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:18,240

trust the information about the pandemic

587

00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:21,590

that they're getting from the president

588

00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:25,920

according to a recent poll conducted by

589

00:26:21,590 --> 00:26:27,900

CNN 55 percent wouldn't trust him if he

590

00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:31,260

were to recommend that they end social

591

00:26:27,900 --> 00:26:33,930

distancing according to Politico perhaps

592

00:26:31,260 --> 00:26:36,300

more importantly public approval of the

593

00:26:33,930 --> 00:26:38,850

way Trump is managing the economy is now

594

00:26:36,300 --> 00:26:42,300

the lowest of his presidency it stands

595

00:26:38,850 --> 00:26:44,520

at 50.7% with forty four point five

596

00:26:42,300 --> 00:26:48,660

percent disapproving according to

597

00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:51,360

polling national averages Trump's edge

598

00:26:48,660 --> 00:26:54,030

over Biden as the most trusted to manage

599

00:26:51,360 --> 00:26:57,840

the economy is also down to three points

600

00:26:54,030 --> 00:26:59,790

44 to 41 after being at 79 points

601

00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:03,240

through most of April in May according

602

00:26:59,790 --> 00:27:05,400

to Politico in other words unless there

603

00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:08,520

is a sustainable decline on

604

00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:11,030

there is a sustainable decline in new

605

00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:13,470

coronavirus cases over the summer an

606

00:27:11,030 --> 00:27:15,900

effective treatment to avoid a second

607

00:27:13,470 --> 00:27:18,240

wave of infection and the positive

608

00:27:15,900 --> 00:27:20,970

economic momentum going into the fall it

609

00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:24,180

would be exceedingly difficult for Trump

610

00:27:20,970 --> 00:27:27,360

to run on the economy or to run on his

611

00:27:24,180 --> 00:27:30,830

quote victory over the virus and those

612

00:27:27,360 --> 00:27:33,630

are all very very big IFS to be sure

613

00:27:30,830 --> 00:27:36,180

Trump still has strong support amongst

614

00:27:33,630 --> 00:27:38,640

his Republican base which is more than

615

00:27:36,180 --> 00:27:40,620

twice as likely to approve of the job

616

00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:44,610

he's doing as president as the general

617

00:27:40,620 --> 00:27:47,280

population however a survey from

618

00:27:44,610 --> 00:27:49,530

Monmouth University conducted since the

619

00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:52,440

murder of George Floyd shows that

620

00:27:49,530 --> 00:27:55,740

Americans as a whole regardless of their

621

00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:58,110

political affiliation are 14 points more

622

00:27:55,740 --> 00:28:01,490

likely to believe that things in the

623

00:27:58,110 --> 00:28:06,540

United States are on the wrong track at

624

00:28:01,490 --> 00:28:09,390

74% compared to 60% a month ago just 21%

625

00:28:06,540 --> 00:28:11,910

say that the country the United States

626

00:28:09,390 --> 00:28:14,940

is headed in the right direction down

627

00:28:11,910 --> 00:28:17,760

from 33 percent in May the biggest

628

00:28:14,940 --> 00:28:20,040

change has been amongst Republicans with

629

00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,600

a 19 point drop amongst those who

630

00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:25,320

believe the country is moving in the

631

00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:28,710

right direction from 64% down now to 45%

632

00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:30,270

and an 18 point increase amongst those

633

00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:30,930

who say the country is off on the wrong

634

00:28:30,270 --> 00:28:34,740

track

635

00:28:30,930 --> 00:28:36,930

28% to 46 percent for independence there

636

00:28:34,740 --> 00:28:38,370

has been a 12 point decline in those who

637

00:28:36,930 --> 00:28:41,310

believe the country is moving in the

638

00:28:38,370 --> 00:28:46,050

right direction from 29 percent in May

639

00:28:41,310 --> 00:28:47,400

to 17 percent now and a 15-point

640

00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,310

increase in those who believe the

641

00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:52,560

opposite 63 percent to 78 percent in the

642

00:28:50,310 --> 00:28:54,780

wrong direction and finally amongst

643

00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,980

Democrats the share of those who believe

644

00:28:54,780 --> 00:28:58,290

the country is moving in the right

645

00:28:55,980 --> 00:29:00,000

direction is down nine points to four

646

00:28:58,290 --> 00:29:02,220

percent compared with thirteen percent a

647

00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,690

month ago the share of those who say the

648

00:29:02,220 --> 00:29:08,160

country is off on the wrong track

649

00:29:03,690 --> 00:29:10,770

amongst Democrats now is 92 percent all

650

00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,310

of that being said the polling average

651

00:29:10,770 --> 00:29:17,260

of

652

00:29:12,310 --> 00:29:21,700

overall job approval rating at 43.5%

653

00:29:17,260 --> 00:29:25,000

who approve and 53.8% who disapprove of

654

00:29:21,700 --> 00:29:27,910

his overall job approval is roughly the

655

00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:30,640

same roughly the same as it was in late

656

00:29:27,910 --> 00:29:32,500

february around the time the united

657

00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:35,500

states saw its first death from

658

00:29:32,500 --> 00:29:37,030

coronavirus or for that matter roughly

659

00:29:35,500 --> 00:29:40,210

the same as it was two weeks after his

660

00:29:37,030 --> 00:29:41,980

inauguration four years ago it almost

661

00:29:40,210 --> 00:29:44,860

seems as if no matter what the President

662

00:29:41,980 --> 00:29:47,830

does his approval rating remains in the

663

00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:49,750

mid 40s low 40s to mid 40s as a

664

00:29:47,830 --> 00:29:52,930

testament both to his solid support

665

00:29:49,750 --> 00:29:55,240

amongst his conservative base and just

666

00:29:52,930 --> 00:29:58,090

as solid opposition from the center and

667

00:29:55,240 --> 00:30:01,120

left now let's turn for a moment to Joe

668

00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:02,440

Biden as a presidential contender he

669

00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,050

finds himself in an unprecedented

670

00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:07,660

position having to campaign virtue

671

00:30:05,050 --> 00:30:10,510

having to campaign virtually from his

672

00:30:07,660 --> 00:30:12,810

basement in Wilmington Delaware without

673

00:30:10,510 --> 00:30:15,850

rallies and other in-person

674

00:30:12,810 --> 00:30:18,610

campaign opportunities that typically

675

00:30:15,850 --> 00:30:21,490

generates non-stop 24-hour campaign a

676

00:30:18,610 --> 00:30:25,300

24-hour campaign news cycle he is far

677

00:30:21,490 --> 00:30:27,580

out matched by Trump on social media but

678

00:30:25,300 --> 00:30:29,860

he still has limited means limited means

679

00:30:27,580 --> 00:30:31,960

of reaching voters who are not already

680

00:30:29,860 --> 00:30:32,550

attuned to his message of experience and

681

00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:36,820

empathy

682

00:30:32,550 --> 00:30:39,220

nevertheless Americans today trust Biden

683

00:30:36,820 --> 00:30:42,040

rather than Trump to better manage

684

00:30:39,220 --> 00:30:44,590

coronavirus to better manage health care

685

00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:47,860

and to better manage US relations with

686

00:30:44,590 --> 00:30:49,870

China according to Fox News they are

687

00:30:47,860 --> 00:30:52,210

also more likely to view Biden rather

688

00:30:49,870 --> 00:30:54,970

than Trump as having good leadership

689

00:30:52,210 --> 00:30:57,700

skills and caring about average

690

00:30:54,970 --> 00:31:03,250

Americans according to a recent survey

691

00:30:57,700 --> 00:31:05,830

by a Quinnipiac University now if I may

692

00:31:03,250 --> 00:31:08,650

talk about the murder of George Floyd

693

00:31:05,830 --> 00:31:12,550

and the protests inspired and what all

694

00:31:08,650 --> 00:31:15,910

of this could mean for Trump Biden and

695

00:31:12,550 --> 00:31:17,770

the nation in my opinion these

696

00:31:15,910 --> 00:31:20,740

developments represent an inflection

697

00:31:17,770 --> 00:31:23,590

point in the presidential race arguably

698

00:31:20,740 --> 00:31:26,750

comparable to it in its magnitude to the

699

00:31:23,590 --> 00:31:30,950

kovat 19 pandemic and the economic

700

00:31:26,750 --> 00:31:33,800

we all know that code 19 is severely

701

00:31:30,950 --> 00:31:35,810

impacting african-americans who are

702

00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,690

disproportionately more likely to get

703

00:31:35,810 --> 00:31:41,300

sick and to die from the virus as well

704

00:31:38,690 --> 00:31:44,660

as to lose a job or suffer bankruptcy in

705

00:31:41,300 --> 00:31:47,210

the economic fallout President Trump has

706

00:31:44,660 --> 00:31:49,760

largely ignored these considerations

707

00:31:47,210 --> 00:31:52,270

along with the broader history of police

708

00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:54,620

violence and racial and socio-economic

709

00:31:52,270 --> 00:31:56,660

disparities that have harmed black

710

00:31:54,620 --> 00:32:00,260

Americans for generations in this

711

00:31:56,660 --> 00:32:01,970

country instead the president is

712

00:32:00,260 --> 00:32:04,130

doubling down and on the message of law

713

00:32:01,970 --> 00:32:07,250

and order denouncing the protests as

714

00:32:04,130 --> 00:32:09,560

domestic acts of terror and portraying

715

00:32:07,250 --> 00:32:12,350

participants as members of the radical

716

00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,450

left Trump's stark rhetoric is

717

00:32:12,350 --> 00:32:18,290

consistent with the law and order

718

00:32:14,450 --> 00:32:21,680

message he has projected since his 2016

719

00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:25,060

campaign it is designed to appeal to his

720

00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:27,440

core supporters so far Trump's message

721

00:32:25,060 --> 00:32:30,050

doesn't appear to resonate very strongly

722

00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,950

with some of the key voter groups whose

723

00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:36,140

support is crucial to his reelection

724

00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:38,720

according to a new political morning

725

00:32:36,140 --> 00:32:41,690

consult poll registered voters

726

00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:45,620

registered voters are 31% more likely to

727

00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:48,680

vote for Trump and 45% more likely to

728

00:32:45,620 --> 00:32:51,950

vote for Biden as a result of the murder

729

00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:54,050

of George Floyd ten days ago the

730

00:32:51,950 --> 00:32:57,080

difference is especially notable amongst

731

00:32:54,050 --> 00:33:00,920

women who are 29% more likely to vote

732

00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:05,390

for Trump and 47% more likely to vote

733

00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:07,850

for Biden voters under 44 are 23% more

734

00:33:05,390 --> 00:33:09,640

likely to vote for Trump and 50 percent

735

00:33:07,850 --> 00:33:13,130

more likely to vote for Biden and

736

00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:16,250

suburban voters are 29% more likely to

737

00:33:13,130 --> 00:33:19,280

vote for Trump and 47% more likely to

738

00:33:16,250 --> 00:33:21,650

vote for Biden some Republican senators

739

00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,900

such as Ben Sasse of Nebraska Tim Scott

740

00:33:21,650 --> 00:33:26,450

of South Carolina the Chamber's only

741

00:33:23,900 --> 00:33:28,580

black senator criticized Trump for

742

00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:31,130

violently clearing away protesters near

743

00:33:28,580 --> 00:33:33,550

the White House on Monday only to have

744

00:33:31,130 --> 00:33:36,950

his picture taken in front of the church

745

00:33:33,550 --> 00:33:40,400

recently the statements and articles and

746

00:33:36,950 --> 00:33:42,470

op-eds by general mattis or former

747

00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,410

former chief of the Joint Chiefs mike

748

00:33:42,470 --> 00:33:48,620

admiral mike mullen publishing strong

749

00:33:45,410 --> 00:33:51,710

strong worded opinion pieces criticizing

750

00:33:48,620 --> 00:33:54,290

Trump and removing for his removal of

751

00:33:51,710 --> 00:33:56,990

peaceful demonstrators following that

752

00:33:54,290 --> 00:33:59,690

and after facing strong internal

753

00:33:56,990 --> 00:34:01,790

disapproval in the Pentagon both

754

00:33:59,690 --> 00:34:04,100

secretary defense Mike Vesper and

755

00:34:01,790 --> 00:34:07,760

current chairman of the Joint Chiefs

756

00:34:04,100 --> 00:34:09,740

general mark Milley tried to walk back

757

00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:12,230

their initial embrace and support for

758

00:34:09,740 --> 00:34:14,990

Trump's treatment of the protesters this

759

00:34:12,230 --> 00:34:18,200

past Monday and where is Joe Biden in

760

00:34:14,990 --> 00:34:20,300

all of this for bagging this crisis as

761

00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:22,790

an opportunity to project strength

762

00:34:20,300 --> 00:34:24,740

through empathy and take on the mantle

763

00:34:22,790 --> 00:34:28,010

of leader of the Democratic opposition

764

00:34:24,740 --> 00:34:30,530

and unifier of the nation while offering

765

00:34:28,010 --> 00:34:32,679

realistic workable solutions to the

766

00:34:30,530 --> 00:34:36,080

inequities driving the protests on

767

00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:38,120

Tuesday this week in his first formal

768

00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:41,570

speech since the coronavirus shuttered

769

00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:44,360

his campaign Biden emphasized themes of

770

00:34:41,570 --> 00:34:46,960

empathy and unity pledging to address

771

00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,940

economic inequality and racial injustice

772

00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:53,000

but also urging the nation to come

773

00:34:49,940 --> 00:34:56,179

together at a moment of deep deep civil

774

00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:57,710

unrest earlier Pheidon met with black

775

00:34:56,179 --> 00:34:59,870

leaders and protesters and announced

776

00:34:57,710 --> 00:35:02,300

initial proposals aimed at tackling

777

00:34:59,870 --> 00:35:05,200

institutional racism in criminal justice

778

00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:07,510

and law enforcement

779

00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:09,279

today these voters support Biden over

780

00:35:07,510 --> 00:35:12,210

Donald Trump by a broad margin but a

781

00:35:09,279 --> 00:35:15,670

nota notably less less enthusiastic

782

00:35:12,210 --> 00:35:18,059

about voting for him 59% of Biden

783

00:35:15,670 --> 00:35:20,109

supporters aged 18 to 39 are

784

00:35:18,059 --> 00:35:23,769

enthusiastic about supporting him

785

00:35:20,109 --> 00:35:24,849

compared with 74 percent of other Biden

786

00:35:23,769 --> 00:35:29,230

supporters who support him

787

00:35:24,849 --> 00:35:31,059

enthusiastically as you know Biden has

788

00:35:29,230 --> 00:35:33,279

pledged to select a female running mate

789

00:35:31,059 --> 00:35:36,849

and strongly hinted that he might serve

790

00:35:33,279 --> 00:35:38,260

only one term if he wins in November in

791

00:35:36,849 --> 00:35:40,630

addition to being a heartbeat away from

792

00:35:38,260 --> 00:35:41,980

the presidency Biden's future running

793

00:35:40,630 --> 00:35:43,960

mate will automatically become the

794

00:35:41,980 --> 00:35:46,930

Democratic Party's frontrunner for the

795

00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:49,510

2024 presidential election and will find

796

00:35:46,930 --> 00:35:51,609

herself in an unparalleled position to

797

00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:55,150

define the Democratic agenda for the

798

00:35:51,609 --> 00:35:58,059

next decade Biden's recent you ain't

799

00:35:55,150 --> 00:35:59,680

black comment in an interview has

800

00:35:58,059 --> 00:36:01,650

intensified pressure from black

801

00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:06,460

Democratic Party establishment and

802

00:36:01,650 --> 00:36:08,619

activists in favor of Biden choosing an

803

00:36:06,460 --> 00:36:12,900

african-american woman as his running

804

00:36:08,619 --> 00:36:15,759

mate I'd argue that the recent protests

805

00:36:12,900 --> 00:36:18,369

over George Floyd are making that an

806

00:36:15,759 --> 00:36:20,559

imperative for him possibilities include

807

00:36:18,369 --> 00:36:22,690

some senator Kamala Harris of California

808

00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:24,670

representative Val Demmings of Florida

809

00:36:22,690 --> 00:36:26,230

Stacey Abrams the former Georgia House

810

00:36:24,670 --> 00:36:29,799

Minority Leader and gubernatorial

811

00:36:26,230 --> 00:36:32,740

candidate and recently Atlanta may

812

00:36:29,799 --> 00:36:36,700

occasionally is bottom's in a CNN poll

813

00:36:32,740 --> 00:36:39,160

38% of Democratic voters named racial

814

00:36:36,700 --> 00:36:41,650

and ethnic diversity as their first or

815

00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:44,140

second most important consideration with

816

00:36:41,650 --> 00:36:46,630

regard to Biden's choice of a running

817

00:36:44,140 --> 00:36:49,420

mate the importance of the

818

00:36:46,630 --> 00:36:52,230

african-american vote to Biden's victory

819

00:36:49,420 --> 00:36:55,240

in November is impossible to overstate

820

00:36:52,230 --> 00:36:57,670

lower turnout amongst this group was a

821

00:36:55,240 --> 00:37:01,930

key factor behind Hillary Clinton's

822

00:36:57,670 --> 00:37:04,029

failure in 2016 the Biden campaign will

823

00:37:01,930 --> 00:37:06,670

have some how are choices to make when

824

00:37:04,029 --> 00:37:09,430

trying to balance a pressing need to

825

00:37:06,670 --> 00:37:12,309

energize the voters with a similarly

826

00:37:09,430 --> 00:37:14,680

pressing me need to expand support among

827

00:37:12,309 --> 00:37:16,839

younger voters and progressives who

828

00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,779

voted for Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in

829

00:37:16,839 --> 00:37:21,979

the primaries

830

00:37:18,779 --> 00:37:25,949

so let me conclude with something

831

00:37:21,979 --> 00:37:28,859

imagine now it's September and the

832

00:37:25,949 --> 00:37:31,409

economy across the nation has been fully

833

00:37:28,859 --> 00:37:34,709

open for two or three months for several

834

00:37:31,409 --> 00:37:37,949

several well for several months the

835

00:37:34,709 --> 00:37:41,369

furloughs are long over businesses are

836

00:37:37,949 --> 00:37:43,499

hiring again unemployment while still

837

00:37:41,369 --> 00:37:46,140

higher than it was back in February is

838

00:37:43,499 --> 00:37:49,709

nowhere near the 40 million we have

839

00:37:46,140 --> 00:37:52,829

today likewise the economy is growing by

840

00:37:49,709 --> 00:37:55,069

double digits and president Trump will

841

00:37:52,829 --> 00:37:57,900

be taking credit for all of that

842

00:37:55,069 --> 00:38:00,390

declaring himself on Twitter as the

843

00:37:57,900 --> 00:38:03,119

architect of the speediest economic

844

00:38:00,390 --> 00:38:06,049

recovery and largest job growth in human

845

00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:08,549

memory what will Joe Biden say to that

846

00:38:06,049 --> 00:38:11,669

well the Biden campaign try to remind

847

00:38:08,549 --> 00:38:14,099

voters about Trump's actions on kovat 19

848

00:38:11,669 --> 00:38:17,219

that led to more than 100,000 dead and

849

00:38:14,099 --> 00:38:20,069

millions of lives disrupted or Trump's

850

00:38:17,219 --> 00:38:23,039

response to the murder of George Floyd

851

00:38:20,069 --> 00:38:25,380

or will Democrats instead appeal to

852

00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:28,169

voters with a forward-looking message of

853

00:38:25,380 --> 00:38:32,640

using kovat 19 and the racial divide as

854

00:38:28,169 --> 00:38:36,119

an impetus for reimagining rebuilding

855

00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:39,140

and unifying the nation the outcome of

856

00:38:36,119 --> 00:38:42,779

the election will ultimately hinge on

857

00:38:39,140 --> 00:38:49,709

Biden's answer to this question thank

858

00:38:42,779 --> 00:38:53,130

you thank you thank you so much for that

859

00:38:49,709 --> 00:38:54,630

very exciting talk and I've had a chance

860

00:38:53,130 --> 00:38:57,299

to look at some of the questions coming

861

00:38:54,630 --> 00:38:58,289

in and there on a variety of topics so

862

00:38:57,299 --> 00:39:01,619

prepare yourself

863

00:38:58,289 --> 00:39:07,679

zebb first we now enter those questions

864

00:39:01,619 --> 00:39:10,559

but at the same time I would like to

865

00:39:07,679 --> 00:39:13,199

provide you in our audience with some

866

00:39:10,559 --> 00:39:15,029

information if you joined us late or if

867

00:39:13,199 --> 00:39:17,969

you forgotten here's how to send a

868

00:39:15,029 --> 00:39:21,599

question for our speaker click on the

869

00:39:17,969 --> 00:39:23,219

Q&A button if you're with us via Zoom

870

00:39:21,599 --> 00:39:24,869

unfortunately if you're watching us

871

00:39:23,219 --> 00:39:27,769

through YouTube the comments are

872

00:39:24,869 --> 00:39:30,029

disabled and here is our first question

873

00:39:27,769 --> 00:39:32,910

difficult to choose and of course I

874

00:39:30,029 --> 00:39:34,979

expect many more to be coming in

875

00:39:32,910 --> 00:39:35,969

we have Jota a1 who's a professor of

876

00:39:34,979 --> 00:39:41,670

political science and international

877

00:39:35,969 --> 00:39:43,410

relations from Egypt and she says in the

878

00:39:41,670 --> 00:39:45,420

short term President Trump is losing his

879

00:39:43,410 --> 00:39:49,069

popularity due to the challenges

880

00:39:45,420 --> 00:39:52,589

mentioned by Sayyaf first what this to

881

00:39:49,069 --> 00:39:55,019

decline continued on the if is if this

882

00:39:52,589 --> 00:39:57,479

decline in games in a long term giving

883

00:39:55,019 --> 00:40:02,329

the uncertain developments of cub at 19

884

00:39:57,479 --> 00:40:06,390

pandemic over the world economic system

885

00:40:02,329 --> 00:40:11,390

in other words if it continues what we

886

00:40:06,390 --> 00:40:17,039

have this situation what do you think I

887

00:40:11,390 --> 00:40:21,059

think I addressed that at the towards

888

00:40:17,039 --> 00:40:22,890

the end of the presentation if things

889

00:40:21,059 --> 00:40:27,479

continue now the way they're going and

890

00:40:22,890 --> 00:40:30,839

there's no demonstrable improvement I

891

00:40:27,479 --> 00:40:35,489

think that the Trump campaign is and

892

00:40:30,839 --> 00:40:36,890

even is in an even deeper deeper problem

893

00:40:35,489 --> 00:40:41,549

than they're currently in right now

894

00:40:36,890 --> 00:40:44,130

again if things begin to change that's

895

00:40:41,549 --> 00:40:46,140

the question that I have and many many

896

00:40:44,130 --> 00:40:50,369

people have how is the public going to

897

00:40:46,140 --> 00:40:53,160

respond in September or October to what

898

00:40:50,369 --> 00:40:54,929

probably will be a better economic

899

00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,429

situation than we have today although

900

00:40:54,929 --> 00:40:59,249

not necessarily better than it was in

901

00:40:56,429 --> 00:41:02,549

March or February and you know that's

902

00:40:59,249 --> 00:41:05,519

the $64,000 question that none of us

903

00:41:02,549 --> 00:41:08,069

have any answers to right now I do

904

00:41:05,519 --> 00:41:09,869

caution a bit that some of most of these

905

00:41:08,069 --> 00:41:13,619

questions so far came in before you had

906

00:41:09,869 --> 00:41:15,449

completed your talk but here's Antonio

907

00:41:13,619 --> 00:41:18,059

de Moo who both of us know director of

908

00:41:15,449 --> 00:41:21,559

Middle East unit Institute for security

909

00:41:18,059 --> 00:41:26,130

and defense analyses in Athens Greece

910

00:41:21,559 --> 00:41:28,099

what would a bun presidency mean for

911

00:41:26,130 --> 00:41:31,049

American foreign policy towards the

912

00:41:28,099 --> 00:41:39,059

israeli-palestinian issue and relations

913

00:41:31,049 --> 00:41:43,459

with China I think that there are many

914

00:41:39,059 --> 00:41:45,880

more eminent analysts of the bilateral

915

00:41:43,459 --> 00:41:47,800

us-israeli relationship

916

00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,990

that would be able to so that better

917

00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:53,890

than I obviously begin from one point

918

00:41:49,990 --> 00:41:56,740

Biden is very much a globalist and so is

919

00:41:53,890 --> 00:41:58,240

the Democratic Party and I think it

920

00:41:56,740 --> 00:42:02,230

would be I don't want to use the word

921

00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:04,240

necessarily return to who what was under

922

00:42:02,230 --> 00:42:06,130

Obama because there was some mistakes

923

00:42:04,240 --> 00:42:08,500

even from Biden's perspective that that

924

00:42:06,130 --> 00:42:10,060

that were made but I certainly would

925

00:42:08,500 --> 00:42:18,430

think that he would engage more directly

926

00:42:10,060 --> 00:42:21,730

and he would be willing to discuss with

927

00:42:18,430 --> 00:42:25,360

the Israelis what Israel needs to do or

928

00:42:21,730 --> 00:42:30,970

should be doing in order to engage with

929

00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:33,760

the Palestinians and not only to focus

930

00:42:30,970 --> 00:42:36,100

on a domestic political base which the

931

00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,210

current president is doing so I would

932

00:42:36,100 --> 00:42:38,800

think that there would be much more

933

00:42:37,210 --> 00:42:40,120

engagement between the United States and

934

00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,280

Israel I think that would be some more

935

00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,630

tension between the United States and

936

00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,580

Israel under the current Israeli

937

00:42:43,630 --> 00:42:48,490

government if it were done in the next

938

00:42:45,580 --> 00:42:52,020

year or a year and a half than it is now

939

00:42:48,490 --> 00:42:56,080

but I don't think it's a return to to

940

00:42:52,020 --> 00:42:58,030

some of the more difficult aspects of

941

00:42:56,080 --> 00:43:01,240

the bilateral relationship between Obama

942

00:42:58,030 --> 00:43:02,950

and Netanyahu but this country will be

943

00:43:01,240 --> 00:43:05,020

far more globalist focus that will

944

00:43:02,950 --> 00:43:07,530

reengage with the with the Atlantic

945

00:43:05,020 --> 00:43:11,770

community with Europe it will reengage

946

00:43:07,530 --> 00:43:16,410

with with with China as well and not

947

00:43:11,770 --> 00:43:19,780

only speak negatively and create

948

00:43:16,410 --> 00:43:21,010

tremendous problems in the bilateral

949

00:43:19,780 --> 00:43:24,010

relationship between the United States

950

00:43:21,010 --> 00:43:26,230

and China that's not to say that Biden

951

00:43:24,010 --> 00:43:27,640

disagrees with some of trumps positions

952

00:43:26,230 --> 00:43:32,160

on China I think he agrees with some of

953

00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:36,490

them but there will be a lowering of the

954

00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:39,670

hot debate through Twitter that will

955

00:43:36,490 --> 00:43:41,350

certainly happen it's quite fascinating

956

00:43:39,670 --> 00:43:44,560

but the last two questions that have

957

00:43:41,350 --> 00:43:49,450

come in are both the same question and

958

00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:51,190

they are from my now Helmut Rahn

959

00:43:49,450 --> 00:43:55,660

who's professor of urban planning at

960

00:43:51,190 --> 00:43:58,540

HPRC in Egypt and from Gregg so Sal

961

00:43:55,660 --> 00:43:59,589

kovetz and the question is this do you

962

00:43:58,540 --> 00:44:02,499

think progressives would

963

00:43:59,589 --> 00:44:04,869

support Paris or Demings as VP with

964

00:44:02,499 --> 00:44:08,529

their histories as prosecutors or police

965

00:44:04,869 --> 00:44:09,969

chief impressive how much now inside the

966

00:44:08,529 --> 00:44:13,390

country and outside the United States

967

00:44:09,969 --> 00:44:15,759

people are have so much knowledge of our

968

00:44:13,390 --> 00:44:19,509

candidates look this is a challenge for

969

00:44:15,759 --> 00:44:21,369

Biden but I do think that as a direct

970

00:44:19,509 --> 00:44:23,880

result of what is occurring right now in

971

00:44:21,369 --> 00:44:27,940

the United States after the murder of

972

00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:31,119

George Floyd I think that the

973

00:44:27,940 --> 00:44:34,869

determination for progressives in the

974

00:44:31,119 --> 00:44:37,479

Democratic Party to ensure that Trump

975

00:44:34,869 --> 00:44:40,779

does not get reelected would dictate and

976

00:44:37,479 --> 00:44:42,789

push progressives who would under other

977

00:44:40,779 --> 00:44:44,499

circumstances either sit out the

978

00:44:42,789 --> 00:44:47,529

election well would probably sit out the

979

00:44:44,499 --> 00:44:51,940

election I think it would push them to

980

00:44:47,529 --> 00:44:54,099

vote for Biden notwithstanding the

981

00:44:51,940 --> 00:44:56,499

previous issues that Biden had with with

982

00:44:54,099 --> 00:44:59,469

recipe part of the party I also think

983

00:44:56,499 --> 00:45:02,969

that this time for probably the first

984

00:44:59,469 --> 00:45:05,769

time in many many years his choice of a

985

00:45:02,969 --> 00:45:07,450

running mate while it normally is a one

986

00:45:05,769 --> 00:45:10,299

or two or three days story other than

987

00:45:07,450 --> 00:45:13,410

2008 but normally it's a one or two day

988

00:45:10,299 --> 00:45:16,599

story everyone focuses on the on the

989

00:45:13,410 --> 00:45:18,910

person who heads the ticket I think this

990

00:45:16,599 --> 00:45:22,119

time his choice could have a profound

991

00:45:18,910 --> 00:45:25,210

effect on whether he ends up inside the

992

00:45:22,119 --> 00:45:27,309

White House and I do think that a higher

993

00:45:25,210 --> 00:45:29,469

percentage of progressives in the party

994

00:45:27,309 --> 00:45:33,309

than one would normally think will come

995

00:45:29,469 --> 00:45:35,769

out and vote for him here's a question

996

00:45:33,309 --> 00:45:37,839

from Jonathan Jacoby founding director

997

00:45:35,769 --> 00:45:40,469

of Israel Policy Forum and new Israel

998

00:45:37,839 --> 00:45:42,630

fund and a UCLA alone there are

999

00:45:40,469 --> 00:45:45,069

evangelicals who promote anti-semitism

1000

00:45:42,630 --> 00:45:48,339

what are their motivations for

1001

00:45:45,069 --> 00:45:50,140

supporting hardliners in Israel why has

1002

00:45:48,339 --> 00:45:54,670

there not been more pushback from

1003

00:45:50,140 --> 00:45:56,289

American Jews I am NOT an expert in the

1004

00:45:54,670 --> 00:45:58,479

internal politics of the American Jewish

1005

00:45:56,289 --> 00:46:01,420

community so I don't want to I don't

1006

00:45:58,479 --> 00:46:04,180

want to address that I again think that

1007

00:46:01,420 --> 00:46:08,410

the evangelical community number one is

1008

00:46:04,180 --> 00:46:13,240

focused on Israel being a strong country

1009

00:46:08,410 --> 00:46:19,540

on a right-wing perception of what

1010

00:46:13,240 --> 00:46:23,410

a strong country means and I do not

1011

00:46:19,540 --> 00:46:25,900

think that some of the questionable

1012

00:46:23,410 --> 00:46:31,090

anti-semitic statements that have been

1013

00:46:25,900 --> 00:46:33,610

made by various evangelicals will in any

1014

00:46:31,090 --> 00:46:36,430

way change how Israel the current

1015

00:46:33,610 --> 00:46:37,840

Israeli government views the Evangel

1016

00:46:36,430 --> 00:46:39,430

community or for that matter how the

1017

00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:42,250

president needs the evangelical

1018

00:46:39,430 --> 00:46:44,080

community here's a question from dr.

1019

00:46:42,250 --> 00:46:46,330

Mohammed ooh-la associate professor of

1020

00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:48,940

economics University of Nevada in Oman

1021

00:46:46,330 --> 00:46:50,350

will it be economically beneficial for

1022

00:46:48,940 --> 00:46:52,660

the u.s. in terms of keeping the

1023

00:46:50,350 --> 00:46:56,050

stability of dollar value if it engages

1024

00:46:52,660 --> 00:46:58,150

further trade war with China well that's

1025

00:46:56,050 --> 00:47:00,610

the you know that's the big that's the

1026

00:46:58,150 --> 00:47:01,150

big debate amongst economists of which I

1027

00:47:00,610 --> 00:47:06,220

am NOT

1028

00:47:01,150 --> 00:47:07,750

and I think most economists irrespective

1029

00:47:06,220 --> 00:47:09,970

of which party they support or which

1030

00:47:07,750 --> 00:47:12,970

person they support for president will

1031

00:47:09,970 --> 00:47:15,010

agree that an all-out trade war and

1032

00:47:12,970 --> 00:47:17,200

all-out trade war with with China is not

1033

00:47:15,010 --> 00:47:21,580

in the best interests of the United

1034

00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:25,710

States or China here's a question from

1035

00:47:21,580 --> 00:47:28,480

Dan Carter of Princeton University a

1036

00:47:25,710 --> 00:47:31,000

friend of the great number of people on

1037

00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:33,100

this call are there statistics on the

1038

00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:35,260

impact of covin and unemployment

1039

00:47:33,100 --> 00:47:44,760

specifically only been Jellicle

1040

00:47:35,260 --> 00:47:49,420

communities around the country well the

1041

00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:52,270

the drop in evangelical support for

1042

00:47:49,420 --> 00:47:55,450

Trump over the last two months is a

1043

00:47:52,270 --> 00:47:58,540

direct result of the coronavirus the way

1044

00:47:55,450 --> 00:48:03,520

his handling of the coronavirus as well

1045

00:47:58,540 --> 00:48:05,260

as the economic dislocation so I do

1046

00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:08,230

think but I don't have it handy right

1047

00:48:05,260 --> 00:48:10,180

now that there are specific numbers

1048

00:48:08,230 --> 00:48:14,470

amongst evangelical voters in the six in

1049

00:48:10,180 --> 00:48:17,200

the six swing states of where they stand

1050

00:48:14,470 --> 00:48:18,400

on on these specific issues but I don't

1051

00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:20,859

have them available right now but

1052

00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,930

there's been a significant six or seven

1053

00:48:20,859 --> 00:48:26,220

or eight point drop amongst evangelical

1054

00:48:22,930 --> 00:48:26,220

support for Trump in the last two months

1055

00:48:26,950 --> 00:48:33,849

okay let's go on to Professor Lehman a

1056

00:48:31,390 --> 00:48:35,920

retired professor of pathology from UVM

1057

00:48:33,849 --> 00:48:38,799

what are the cysts Biden to emphasize

1058

00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:42,280

foreign policy during his campaign I'm

1059

00:48:38,799 --> 00:48:44,440

sorry you would eat a cyst Biden to

1060

00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:46,750

emphasize foreign policy during his

1061

00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:49,059

campaign look the word emphasizes a very

1062

00:48:46,750 --> 00:48:52,780

difficult I want to be careful here most

1063

00:48:49,059 --> 00:48:55,119

American campaigns are about domestic

1064

00:48:52,780 --> 00:48:58,150

issues and given where the country is

1065

00:48:55,119 --> 00:49:00,910

today and given what happened in this

1066

00:48:58,150 --> 00:49:03,730

country in the last nine days or nine

1067

00:49:00,910 --> 00:49:06,609

days ago I'm given the funeral today I

1068

00:49:03,730 --> 00:49:11,109

think that domestic the domestic

1069

00:49:06,609 --> 00:49:13,030

upheaval the lack of unity the what is

1070

00:49:11,109 --> 00:49:16,420

going on internally in the United States

1071

00:49:13,030 --> 00:49:19,089

will be far far more important in the

1072

00:49:16,420 --> 00:49:23,250

presidential campaign than issues of

1073

00:49:19,089 --> 00:49:27,210

foreign policy given the coronavirus

1074

00:49:23,250 --> 00:49:31,390

given given the economic recession and

1075

00:49:27,210 --> 00:49:33,640

given the murder and subsequent protests

1076

00:49:31,390 --> 00:49:36,400

and how those protests are being handled

1077

00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:38,290

by the administration I think that is

1078

00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:40,150

where frankly from a political point of

1079

00:49:38,290 --> 00:49:41,710

view the campaign should focus it's at

1080

00:49:40,150 --> 00:49:46,079

the Biden campaign should focus its

1081

00:49:41,710 --> 00:49:48,520

attention at the same time I think that

1082

00:49:46,079 --> 00:49:51,540

the way China fits into this obviously

1083

00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:54,280

that becomes a foreign policy issue and

1084

00:49:51,540 --> 00:49:56,799

he certainly and the campaign would

1085

00:49:54,280 --> 00:50:00,190

certainly address address the Chinese

1086

00:49:56,799 --> 00:50:03,760

issues as well as some of the as well as

1087

00:50:00,190 --> 00:50:07,299

Hong Kong now and also address but to a

1088

00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:09,579

lesser degree address the break between

1089

00:50:07,299 --> 00:50:11,619

the United States and its traditional

1090

00:50:09,579 --> 00:50:12,849

European allies but to say that it's

1091

00:50:11,619 --> 00:50:15,700

going to be at the very top of the

1092

00:50:12,849 --> 00:50:17,290

agenda foreign policy is rarely if ever

1093

00:50:15,700 --> 00:50:22,299

at the very top of an agenda

1094

00:50:17,290 --> 00:50:25,480

international presidential race I might

1095

00:50:22,299 --> 00:50:27,250

to remind people that we try to have one

1096

00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,630

question per person if we have time

1097

00:50:27,250 --> 00:50:31,930

we'll try to get second questions in

1098

00:50:28,630 --> 00:50:34,930

here's some here's Eric's a claw from

1099

00:50:31,930 --> 00:50:36,369

Los Angeles a UCLA alumni picked one of

1100

00:50:34,930 --> 00:50:38,079

his questions the Palestinians have

1101

00:50:36,369 --> 00:50:40,690

refused to direct negotiations with

1102

00:50:38,079 --> 00:50:42,880

Israel for more than 12 years what makes

1103

00:50:40,690 --> 00:50:47,050

you think a Biden administration would

1104

00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:48,550

change that first of all I am not sure

1105

00:50:47,050 --> 00:50:50,619

about the administration would change

1106

00:50:48,550 --> 00:50:54,490

that but I do think they're you know

1107

00:50:50,619 --> 00:50:56,410

they're the answer to that is an attempt

1108

00:50:54,490 --> 00:50:58,030

to look at both what is going on

1109

00:50:56,410 --> 00:50:59,619

domestically in Israel and what is going

1110

00:50:58,030 --> 00:51:04,480

on domestically in the United States I

1111

00:50:59,619 --> 00:51:10,089

think that the amount of frankly

1112

00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:13,599

pressure by the US on Israel would

1113

00:51:10,089 --> 00:51:18,520

increase in a Biden administration than

1114

00:51:13,599 --> 00:51:21,190

it currently is and I think also that I

1115

00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:24,520

don't mean that the u.s. necessarily

1116

00:51:21,190 --> 00:51:25,569

will begin demanding things of Israel

1117

00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,849

but I think there'll be a gentle

1118

00:51:25,569 --> 00:51:30,280

persuasion that will begin whether it

1119

00:51:27,849 --> 00:51:34,000

will be successful or not I really don't

1120

00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:36,609

know and it also depends on the timing

1121

00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:41,010

of it let's not forget that whenever if

1122

00:51:36,609 --> 00:51:45,460

if there's a new president in January of

1123

00:51:41,010 --> 00:51:48,130

2021 that is 10 months removed from when

1124

00:51:45,460 --> 00:51:50,349

there has to be a turnover in who the

1125

00:51:48,130 --> 00:51:52,050

Prime Minister of Israel is under the

1126

00:51:50,349 --> 00:51:56,890

current agreement between between

1127

00:51:52,050 --> 00:52:00,630

between Netanyahu and former general

1128

00:51:56,890 --> 00:52:04,599

Ganz so I do think that there will be

1129

00:52:00,630 --> 00:52:07,470

internal dynamics in both countries that

1130

00:52:04,599 --> 00:52:11,290

one could at least begin to think about

1131

00:52:07,470 --> 00:52:13,690

movement by the Israelis on the

1132

00:52:11,290 --> 00:52:17,650

Palestinian issue I also think that the

1133

00:52:13,690 --> 00:52:20,130

rest of the Arab world would also weigh

1134

00:52:17,650 --> 00:52:25,780

in on this to a degree that's right now

1135

00:52:20,130 --> 00:52:27,220

sort of questionable uh let me I'm gonna

1136

00:52:25,780 --> 00:52:29,290

ask a question here I get a little

1137

00:52:27,220 --> 00:52:33,760

frustrated sometimes ask anybody else's

1138

00:52:29,290 --> 00:52:37,990

questions and the latest news suggests

1139

00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:41,319

that there is a dramatic increase in the

1140

00:52:37,990 --> 00:52:44,260

virus in Latin America and Africa the

1141

00:52:41,319 --> 00:52:46,210

Middle East even Asia let's focus on the

1142

00:52:44,260 --> 00:52:48,010

Middle East of course what does that

1143

00:52:46,210 --> 00:52:51,430

gonna do do you think to America's

1144

00:52:48,010 --> 00:52:54,050

policy of course in part depends on

1145

00:52:51,430 --> 00:52:57,740

who's elected but is the

1146

00:52:54,050 --> 00:53:00,920

how is the virus increase going to

1147

00:52:57,740 --> 00:53:04,340

affect that policy look let's talk about

1148

00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:07,250

the virus today and the reality is that

1149

00:53:04,340 --> 00:53:09,430

the virus in the Middle East is far

1150

00:53:07,250 --> 00:53:11,150

lower than other parts of the world

1151

00:53:09,430 --> 00:53:13,460

whether it's Jordan

1152

00:53:11,150 --> 00:53:17,330

whether it's Lebanon whether it's the

1153

00:53:13,460 --> 00:53:19,790

Gulf whether its Israel actually Israel

1154

00:53:17,330 --> 00:53:25,480

is higher than some of its neighbors yes

1155

00:53:19,790 --> 00:53:25,480

I am NOT referring necessarily to to

1156

00:53:26,500 --> 00:53:34,220

Egypt or Iran but other parts of the

1157

00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:36,710

Middle East have done a

1158

00:53:34,220 --> 00:53:38,740

better-than-expected job in dealing with

1159

00:53:36,710 --> 00:53:42,530

the virus for whatever the reasons are

1160

00:53:38,740 --> 00:53:45,380

and therefore I think you know to ask

1161

00:53:42,530 --> 00:53:48,860

what would happen if the virus would

1162

00:53:45,380 --> 00:53:50,390

push up is something that I Frank we

1163

00:53:48,860 --> 00:53:52,820

don't have a you know an immediate

1164

00:53:50,390 --> 00:53:54,290

answer to the United States is going to

1165

00:53:52,820 --> 00:53:58,310

be pulling and Europe for that matter

1166

00:53:54,290 --> 00:54:01,520

are probably going to be facing other

1167

00:53:58,310 --> 00:54:04,940

issues come September October in the

1168

00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:09,110

virus coming back as a lot of medical

1169

00:54:04,940 --> 00:54:11,300

experts predict and I therefore think

1170

00:54:09,110 --> 00:54:15,740

that there won't be that much attention

1171

00:54:11,300 --> 00:54:19,690

on how US policy would change if there

1172

00:54:15,740 --> 00:54:22,310

is an increase in the Cova 19 virus that

1173

00:54:19,690 --> 00:54:23,360

overtakes parts that only takes parts of

1174

00:54:22,310 --> 00:54:26,690

the Middle East I think it's going to be

1175

00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:28,490

much more us oriented and to a lesser

1176

00:54:26,690 --> 00:54:33,710

degree European oriented the real

1177

00:54:28,490 --> 00:54:35,750

question I think is when is the world

1178

00:54:33,710 --> 00:54:38,360

going to be or Europe the United States

1179

00:54:35,750 --> 00:54:40,340

Middle East when are they going to when

1180

00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:43,070

are we going to feel a bit more

1181

00:54:40,340 --> 00:54:46,580

comfortable in jumping on a plane and

1182

00:54:43,070 --> 00:54:48,590

being able to go to you know to go to

1183

00:54:46,580 --> 00:54:50,090

another country right now that that

1184

00:54:48,590 --> 00:54:51,860

doesn't exist certainly here in the

1185

00:54:50,090 --> 00:54:56,630

United States it's beginning to happen

1186

00:54:51,860 --> 00:54:59,840

in certain parts of Europe and in one or

1187

00:54:56,630 --> 00:55:02,600

two countries in the Middle East but how

1188

00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:04,910

that's going to play out is something

1189

00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:07,430

that I'm not prepared to to predict I've

1190

00:55:04,910 --> 00:55:08,780

already predicted too much

1191

00:55:07,430 --> 00:55:11,390

all right here's a question from Hussein

1192

00:55:08,780 --> 00:55:13,339

Malik from Iran what do you think about

1193

00:55:11,390 --> 00:55:16,430

the prisoner swap between Iran and the

1194

00:55:13,339 --> 00:55:19,069

United States during during this period

1195

00:55:16,430 --> 00:55:22,670

I think is what he means with regards to

1196

00:55:19,069 --> 00:55:23,720

the Iranian American relationship and

1197

00:55:22,670 --> 00:55:26,119

you were pick I don't understand the

1198

00:55:23,720 --> 00:55:30,380

question the question is given the

1199

00:55:26,119 --> 00:55:33,050

recent prisoner swap swap how does that

1200

00:55:30,380 --> 00:55:36,230

affect the relationship now in the

1201

00:55:33,050 --> 00:55:39,859

future and I think that's what mr. Malik

1202

00:55:36,230 --> 00:55:41,599

is suggesting for the Iranian American

1203

00:55:39,859 --> 00:55:43,760

relationship I think I addressed in my

1204

00:55:41,599 --> 00:55:46,329

remarks before that there's been a

1205

00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:51,680

slight lowering of tensions between

1206

00:55:46,329 --> 00:55:55,089

between the United States and Iran on

1207

00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:59,390

both sides over the past several weeks

1208

00:55:55,089 --> 00:56:01,880

notwithstanding I think a lot of what

1209

00:55:59,390 --> 00:56:04,190

may happen depends right now more on

1210

00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:06,250

Iran than on the United States I mean

1211

00:56:04,190 --> 00:56:09,290

the US right now is beginning is in the

1212

00:56:06,250 --> 00:56:11,510

stages now of a full-blown presidential

1213

00:56:09,290 --> 00:56:15,770

campaign excuse me with all of the

1214

00:56:11,510 --> 00:56:17,990

attendant critical issues that need to

1215

00:56:15,770 --> 00:56:19,760

be addressed in order for each candidate

1216

00:56:17,990 --> 00:56:23,359

of each of the political parties to win

1217

00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:26,510

the campaign and therefore initiating

1218

00:56:23,359 --> 00:56:30,880

something by the u.s. is less than if

1219

00:56:26,510 --> 00:56:34,520

Iran decides to initiate and if Iran

1220

00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:37,790

continues to do things as it recently

1221

00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:39,280

did in the cyber world in an aside were

1222

00:56:37,790 --> 00:56:41,420

attack on Israel and Israel's response

1223

00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:45,440

clearly the United States will support

1224

00:56:41,420 --> 00:56:48,740

Israel going forward but I don't think

1225

00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:51,410

the United's at least from my limited

1226

00:56:48,740 --> 00:56:52,700

knowledge and very limited knowledge I

1227

00:56:51,410 --> 00:56:57,650

don't think the United States would

1228

00:56:52,700 --> 00:56:59,450

initiate anything in a vacuum so to some

1229

00:56:57,650 --> 00:56:59,930

degree over the next several months at

1230

00:56:59,450 --> 00:57:03,049

least

1231

00:56:59,930 --> 00:57:05,470

Iran to a very large degree will

1232

00:57:03,049 --> 00:57:09,220

determine if it will see any u.s.

1233

00:57:05,470 --> 00:57:12,980

increase of tensions or decrease

1234

00:57:09,220 --> 00:57:16,099

depending on what it does here's Harold

1235

00:57:12,980 --> 00:57:17,780

Rosenblatt a UCLA senior scholar what

1236

00:57:16,099 --> 00:57:20,030

Biden's chances to be stronger if he

1237

00:57:17,780 --> 00:57:22,910

names his cabinet as well as his VP

1238

00:57:20,030 --> 00:57:25,100

in advance would put what potential VP

1239

00:57:22,910 --> 00:57:27,350

has the best governing experience to be

1240

00:57:25,100 --> 00:57:29,330

able to step into the presidency if

1241

00:57:27,350 --> 00:57:32,290

needed I'm sure you'd love the answer

1242

00:57:29,330 --> 00:57:35,780

that I have I have conflicting

1243

00:57:32,290 --> 00:57:38,390

conflicting views about this on on the

1244

00:57:35,780 --> 00:57:40,340

one hand it's it makes for very good

1245

00:57:38,390 --> 00:57:41,330

theater and very good you know one or

1246

00:57:40,340 --> 00:57:44,360

two days story

1247

00:57:41,330 --> 00:57:46,550

if he starts announcing who his who his

1248

00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:48,170

cabinet will be I don't think he would

1249

00:57:46,550 --> 00:57:49,820

do that other than to say that it would

1250

00:57:48,170 --> 00:57:51,650

be an all inclusive cabinet with

1251

00:57:49,820 --> 00:57:54,800

Republicans in it as well as Democrats

1252

00:57:51,650 --> 00:57:56,950

going to the question of his running

1253

00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:56,950

mate

1254

00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:04,400

several of the Lee candidates that are

1255

00:58:00,740 --> 00:58:11,270

being vetted right now by Biden's team

1256

00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:12,980

are clearly important for segments of

1257

00:58:11,270 --> 00:58:17,000

the Democratic Party that need to come

1258

00:58:12,980 --> 00:58:20,330

out and vote and don't necessarily have

1259

00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:21,200

that much political experience as one

1260

00:58:20,330 --> 00:58:23,480

would expect

1261

00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:25,700

but then again we just elected a

1262

00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:30,860

president in 2016 who had no experience

1263

00:58:25,700 --> 00:58:35,210

and he was elected president so the

1264

00:58:30,860 --> 00:58:37,730

notion or for that matter is he ready

1265

00:58:35,210 --> 00:58:41,240

you know is he ready to be President and

1266

00:58:37,730 --> 00:58:43,510

from my perspective he's not he wasn't

1267

00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:45,980

ready to be president and even today I

1268

00:58:43,510 --> 00:58:47,740

would argue he's unfit to be President

1269

00:58:45,980 --> 00:58:51,710

personally those are my personal views

1270

00:58:47,740 --> 00:58:55,990

but that being said Biden does have

1271

00:58:51,710 --> 00:58:58,730

experience and clearly who he chooses is

1272

00:58:55,990 --> 00:59:00,200

going to mean could very well end up

1273

00:58:58,730 --> 00:59:05,660

being the President of the United States

1274

00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:08,450

in a much greater possibility than ever

1275

00:59:05,660 --> 00:59:10,430

before so the experience issue is

1276

00:59:08,450 --> 00:59:13,040

something that you know that needs to be

1277

00:59:10,430 --> 00:59:14,630

that needs to be considered but when you

1278

00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,470

talk about experience what do you you

1279

00:59:14,630 --> 00:59:17,120

know what's your definition of

1280

00:59:15,470 --> 00:59:20,720

experience someone who's been in

1281

00:59:17,120 --> 00:59:22,730

politics in my view has experience

1282

00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:24,500

because no one has experienced to be

1283

00:59:22,730 --> 00:59:26,750

President when you when you become

1284

00:59:24,500 --> 00:59:29,390

president no one has ever been president

1285

00:59:26,750 --> 00:59:31,310

who hasn't you know wasn't the president

1286

00:59:29,390 --> 00:59:32,780

before so it's a new experience the

1287

00:59:31,310 --> 00:59:33,890

question is whether he is politically

1288

00:59:32,780 --> 00:59:37,790

astute

1289

00:59:33,890 --> 00:59:40,700

that he or she in this case she knows

1290

00:59:37,790 --> 00:59:44,150

how to or someone believes we believe

1291

00:59:40,700 --> 00:59:48,740

that that person knows will know how to

1292

00:59:44,150 --> 00:59:51,920

unite the country and play a as large of

1293

00:59:48,740 --> 00:59:54,950

a role to Biden as Biden played for

1294

00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:56,540

Obama but I think that all of the

1295

00:59:54,950 --> 00:59:58,430

candidates that are being vetted now

1296

00:59:56,540 --> 01:00:00,670

there's some that are better than others

1297

00:59:58,430 --> 01:00:04,070

in my view but that's a personal view

1298

01:00:00,670 --> 01:00:06,290

even though they may not be known as

1299

01:00:04,070 --> 01:00:08,030

well as one would expect I mean how many

1300

01:00:06,290 --> 01:00:11,210

people knew who congresswoman Val

1301

01:00:08,030 --> 01:00:15,680

Demings was is you know several months

1302

01:00:11,210 --> 01:00:18,920

ago yet she clearly and others are

1303

01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:22,540

clearly serious candidates that are

1304

01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:26,240

being vetted by by the president now I

1305

01:00:22,540 --> 01:00:28,580

would argue that it would be far better

1306

01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:30,950

for him to have an african-american

1307

01:00:28,580 --> 01:00:32,570

woman running as his running mate then I

1308

01:00:30,950 --> 01:00:35,570

would have said two months ago or a

1309

01:00:32,570 --> 01:00:37,520

month ago but given what is happening

1310

01:00:35,570 --> 01:00:38,960

not what has happened but what is

1311

01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:44,210

happening right now in the United States

1312

01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:46,280

I think that going or picking an

1313

01:00:44,210 --> 01:00:48,530

african-american woman as his running

1314

01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:52,340

mate would be a very very strong

1315

01:00:48,530 --> 01:00:54,590

statement and I therefore think that

1316

01:00:52,340 --> 01:00:57,980

whether it's Camilla Harris or whether

1317

01:00:54,590 --> 01:00:59,930

it's Val Demings or whether it's bottoms

1318

01:00:57,980 --> 01:01:03,470

of Atlanta the ones that we showed

1319

01:00:59,930 --> 01:01:07,190

before they are they are strong strong

1320

01:01:03,470 --> 01:01:09,860

candidates who I think are being

1321

01:01:07,190 --> 01:01:13,880

seriously considered right now by the

1322

01:01:09,860 --> 01:01:15,710

Biden we're trying to get it away from

1323

01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:17,150

someone asking two questions but I'm

1324

01:01:15,710 --> 01:01:19,070

intrigued with the following one it's a

1325

01:01:17,150 --> 01:01:22,900

man Tony the mule again from Greece how

1326

01:01:19,070 --> 01:01:25,910

can I make some kind of appeal to

1327

01:01:22,900 --> 01:01:29,060

evangelical voters who are disappointed

1328

01:01:25,910 --> 01:01:30,560

by Trump to expand his electoral lead

1329

01:01:29,060 --> 01:01:32,960

and take the White House I don't think

1330

01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,940

he needs to have a separate nor should

1331

01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:38,420

he have a separate appeal to evangelical

1332

01:01:34,940 --> 01:01:44,150

voters I think I think that what he is

1333

01:01:38,420 --> 01:01:47,540

doing this week is is very important he

1334

01:01:44,150 --> 01:01:53,120

is engaging directly with

1335

01:01:47,540 --> 01:01:56,480

Church in its broadest way and he is

1336

01:01:53,120 --> 01:02:00,830

someone who when you compare him to the

1337

01:01:56,480 --> 01:02:03,910

president right now clearly should be

1338

01:02:00,830 --> 01:02:07,760

able to engage directly with those

1339

01:02:03,910 --> 01:02:10,820

evangelicals who are either disgusted or

1340

01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:13,670

a leaving or a leaving Trump look there

1341

01:02:10,820 --> 01:02:17,960

are a number of them clearly

1342

01:02:13,670 --> 01:02:20,870

but Biden cannot just direct a campaign

1343

01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:22,940

at going after the five or six or seven

1344

01:02:20,870 --> 01:02:25,730

or eight percent of evangelical voters

1345

01:02:22,940 --> 01:02:28,550

he is an empathetic guy that is one of

1346

01:02:25,730 --> 01:02:30,440

his strengths in Contra distinction to

1347

01:02:28,550 --> 01:02:33,380

the current president and I think he

1348

01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:37,850

should use that and he is using that I

1349

01:02:33,380 --> 01:02:42,530

think that while sometimes he trips

1350

01:02:37,850 --> 01:02:44,090

himself up speaks I think that over the

1351

01:02:42,530 --> 01:02:48,260

last week he has been far more

1352

01:02:44,090 --> 01:02:52,550

disciplined and in my opinion taking

1353

01:02:48,260 --> 01:02:55,700

advantage of the not only mistakes but

1354

01:02:52,550 --> 01:02:57,440

of a disgraceful response of the current

1355

01:02:55,700 --> 01:02:58,910

White House to the murder of George

1356

01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:00,500

Floyd and I think he will be able to

1357

01:02:58,910 --> 01:03:03,950

develop that even with certain

1358

01:03:00,500 --> 01:03:06,770

evangelicals in certain key states but I

1359

01:03:03,950 --> 01:03:07,280

am by no means ready to concede right

1360

01:03:06,770 --> 01:03:09,050

now

1361

01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:11,840

oh the election is over on the contrary

1362

01:03:09,050 --> 01:03:13,370

it's only beginning and there are going

1363

01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:15,080

to be a lot of things that are going to

1364

01:03:13,370 --> 01:03:18,260

happen that none of us know about over

1365

01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:22,730

the next several months and the question

1366

01:03:18,260 --> 01:03:26,270

is going to be will Biden be able to to

1367

01:03:22,730 --> 01:03:29,120

rise up and be able to deal with

1368

01:03:26,270 --> 01:03:31,610

whatever is going to happen both from

1369

01:03:29,120 --> 01:03:33,710

Trump as well as from events that none

1370

01:03:31,610 --> 01:03:37,190

of us can foretell and you know foresee

1371

01:03:33,710 --> 01:03:40,280

right now we next is Scott Abramson

1372

01:03:37,190 --> 01:03:42,620

postdoctoral fellow at the Nazarene

1373

01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:44,600

Center for Asian Studies at UCLA you

1374

01:03:42,620 --> 01:03:46,520

mentioned Israel's recent rejection

1375

01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,770

under American pressure of a Chinese

1376

01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:52,100

firms bid to build a desalination plant

1377

01:03:48,770 --> 01:03:54,440

in Israel given Trump's special animus

1378

01:03:52,100 --> 01:03:56,540

against Israel do you against China I'm

1379

01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:58,880

sorry given Trump's special animus

1380

01:03:56,540 --> 01:04:01,160

against China do you think American

1381

01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:03,619

pressure to restrict Chinese investment

1382

01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:06,109

in Israel would let up to any

1383

01:04:03,619 --> 01:04:14,450

significant degree under a Biden

1384

01:04:06,109 --> 01:04:14,900

presidency I don't know the answer to

1385

01:04:14,450 --> 01:04:21,980

that

1386

01:04:14,900 --> 01:04:24,559

however the the tremendous engagement in

1387

01:04:21,980 --> 01:04:26,980

the bilateral Israeli Chinese

1388

01:04:24,559 --> 01:04:30,710

relationship over the past 10 years is

1389

01:04:26,980 --> 01:04:34,789

profound the amount of Chinese

1390

01:04:30,710 --> 01:04:36,680

investment in Israeli in the Israeli

1391

01:04:34,789 --> 01:04:43,519

hi-tech community and an Israeli

1392

01:04:36,680 --> 01:04:46,220

companies is huge now I think that even

1393

01:04:43,519 --> 01:04:48,910

in Israel there is a realization that

1394

01:04:46,220 --> 01:04:50,779

there is some serious issues here

1395

01:04:48,910 --> 01:04:53,150

security issues from Israel's

1396

01:04:50,779 --> 01:04:56,299

perspective also however how do you

1397

01:04:53,150 --> 01:04:59,059

control that the reality is that many of

1398

01:04:56,299 --> 01:05:01,519

the high-tech companies are and

1399

01:04:59,059 --> 01:05:05,450

entrepreneurs in Israel come from

1400

01:05:01,519 --> 01:05:08,150

Israel's cyber unit the unit 8200 but

1401

01:05:05,450 --> 01:05:11,960

know you know and they they are taught

1402

01:05:08,150 --> 01:05:15,950

in unit 8200 how to think in a certain

1403

01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:18,380

way and what a lot of these people are

1404

01:05:15,950 --> 01:05:20,750

doing now young people are doing now are

1405

01:05:18,380 --> 01:05:22,250

taking the knowledge that they learn I

1406

01:05:20,750 --> 01:05:23,630

am NOT talking about the technical

1407

01:05:22,250 --> 01:05:26,599

knowledge I'm talking about how to think

1408

01:05:23,630 --> 01:05:30,970

and how to approach a problem and they

1409

01:05:26,599 --> 01:05:36,319

are applying it in developing various

1410

01:05:30,970 --> 01:05:39,740

various applications but companies in

1411

01:05:36,319 --> 01:05:42,440

the high-tech field that while not in

1412

01:05:39,740 --> 01:05:45,890

any way divulging necessarily any

1413

01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:48,829

military secrets are is beginning to be

1414

01:05:45,890 --> 01:05:50,990

and have a you know security

1415

01:05:48,829 --> 01:05:53,089

implications when China is coming in and

1416

01:05:50,990 --> 01:05:56,150

throwing 10 20 30 million dollars at a

1417

01:05:53,089 --> 01:05:59,809

28 year old person for whatever new

1418

01:05:56,150 --> 01:06:04,430

application or new new technology that

1419

01:05:59,809 --> 01:06:05,539

person that person develops Israel is

1420

01:06:04,430 --> 01:06:06,859

struggling with that as much as the

1421

01:06:05,539 --> 01:06:09,319

United States is struggling with that

1422

01:06:06,859 --> 01:06:13,690

and I think the United States has done

1423

01:06:09,319 --> 01:06:15,089

more to stop American companies from

1424

01:06:13,690 --> 01:06:16,920

engaging

1425

01:06:15,089 --> 01:06:19,140

much with Chinese companies or letting

1426

01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:22,650

pennies companies invest in them I think

1427

01:06:19,140 --> 01:06:27,499

Israel is now beginning to to look at it

1428

01:06:22,650 --> 01:06:30,539

the same way but the level of Chinese

1429

01:06:27,499 --> 01:06:33,539

activity in Israel do not underestimate

1430

01:06:30,539 --> 01:06:37,579

the activity that is going on and I

1431

01:06:33,539 --> 01:06:41,249

think it will continue to go on until

1432

01:06:37,579 --> 01:06:42,749

within Israel they determine this you

1433

01:06:41,249 --> 01:06:45,719

can do in this you can't do I think

1434

01:06:42,749 --> 01:06:48,450

Israeli Israeli companies are beginning

1435

01:06:45,719 --> 01:06:50,369

to be a lot more sensitive to the

1436

01:06:48,450 --> 01:06:53,819

Chinese investment question than they

1437

01:06:50,369 --> 01:07:04,769

were two or three years ago primarily

1438

01:06:53,819 --> 01:07:06,979

due to the United States I I don't know

1439

01:07:04,769 --> 01:07:10,589

who's asking a question but I'm going to

1440

01:07:06,979 --> 01:07:14,279

give you peggy McKinney's question from

1441

01:07:10,589 --> 01:07:16,019

UCLA good friend of the center is is it

1442

01:07:14,279 --> 01:07:17,759

possible that the Trump appointments to

1443

01:07:16,019 --> 01:07:20,849

the Supreme Court and US appellate

1444

01:07:17,759 --> 01:07:22,259

courts will work to deal the Janome eyes

1445

01:07:20,849 --> 01:07:24,690

the court system in the eyes of the

1446

01:07:22,259 --> 01:07:27,599

majority of US citizens given their

1447

01:07:24,690 --> 01:07:29,999

ecological convictions of these jurors

1448

01:07:27,599 --> 01:07:32,670

so far from majority public opinion on

1449

01:07:29,999 --> 01:07:36,859

such issues as abortion gerrymandering

1450

01:07:32,670 --> 01:07:36,859

and dark money in political campaigns

1451

01:07:37,219 --> 01:07:49,049

look I one of the key issues for the

1452

01:07:47,130 --> 01:07:51,210

Democratic Party and for those that vote

1453

01:07:49,049 --> 01:07:54,239

Democrat is what's happening to the

1454

01:07:51,210 --> 01:07:56,999

court system I think there are

1455

01:07:54,239 --> 01:08:01,140

Republicans and there are Republican

1456

01:07:56,999 --> 01:08:02,549

groups on the issue of the courts they

1457

01:08:01,140 --> 01:08:04,140

do not question that they're actually

1458

01:08:02,549 --> 01:08:07,469

very much in favor of the Federalist

1459

01:08:04,140 --> 01:08:11,819

Society for sure so I don't think it is

1460

01:08:07,469 --> 01:08:13,380

going to be a determining factor within

1461

01:08:11,819 --> 01:08:14,910

the Republican Party but of course not

1462

01:08:13,380 --> 01:08:20,159

they they they embrace it

1463

01:08:14,910 --> 01:08:23,400

however people who may not necessarily

1464

01:08:20,159 --> 01:08:25,619

agree with Biden or may be disappointed

1465

01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:27,779

with Biden one of the issues that the

1466

01:08:25,619 --> 01:08:28,890

that he and his campaign will use is

1467

01:08:27,779 --> 01:08:31,350

where

1468

01:08:28,890 --> 01:08:32,910

the where the courts are going and it's

1469

01:08:31,350 --> 01:08:35,220

a generational thing it's not going to

1470

01:08:32,910 --> 01:08:38,090

change with the next president as I said

1471

01:08:35,220 --> 01:08:40,980

the judges that are being placed on

1472

01:08:38,090 --> 01:08:44,510

district appellate and Supreme Court's a

1473

01:08:40,980 --> 01:08:47,460

federal are going to have profound

1474

01:08:44,510 --> 01:08:50,310

profound effect here in the United

1475

01:08:47,460 --> 01:08:52,020

States for generations to come now

1476

01:08:50,310 --> 01:08:53,970

certain people are going to be

1477

01:08:52,020 --> 01:08:56,700

influenced by that and others aren't but

1478

01:08:53,970 --> 01:08:57,720

I don't think excuse me I don't think at

1479

01:08:56,700 --> 01:09:00,000

the end of the day it's going to be a

1480

01:08:57,720 --> 01:09:02,580

determining factor look I think at the

1481

01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:05,520

end of the day this campaign is going to

1482

01:09:02,580 --> 01:09:06,510

be the reverse of the last campaign in

1483

01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,960

2016

1484

01:09:06,510 --> 01:09:11,940

even people who are not necessarily

1485

01:09:08,960 --> 01:09:15,330

supportive of Biden are going to be so

1486

01:09:11,940 --> 01:09:16,770

disgusted and want Trump out that they

1487

01:09:15,330 --> 01:09:18,330

will therefore vote for Biden so it's

1488

01:09:16,770 --> 01:09:21,600

going to be a vote not for Biden it's

1489

01:09:18,330 --> 01:09:23,880

going to be a vote against Trump there

1490

01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:26,130

are people who firmly believe that while

1491

01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:28,050

the United States will probably survive

1492

01:09:26,130 --> 01:09:29,970

four years of Trump the United States

1493

01:09:28,050 --> 01:09:31,680

will have serious problems not being

1494

01:09:29,970 --> 01:09:34,050

able to survive eight years of Trump and

1495

01:09:31,680 --> 01:09:36,690

that will push a lot of people who

1496

01:09:34,050 --> 01:09:38,240

ordinarily may not have voted to vote

1497

01:09:36,690 --> 01:09:42,060

for Biden

1498

01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:44,480

well we kind of asked you to know

1499

01:09:42,060 --> 01:09:48,390

everything's if and here's a question

1500

01:09:44,480 --> 01:09:51,360

that channel that really puts you on the

1501

01:09:48,390 --> 01:09:52,740

line stamp-sized a politician and

1502

01:09:51,360 --> 01:09:56,400

university lecturer from the Kurdistan

1503

01:09:52,740 --> 01:09:58,500

Region of Iraq asks soon there will be a

1504

01:09:56,400 --> 01:10:02,280

comprehensive negotiation we in Iraq in

1505

01:09:58,500 --> 01:10:04,560

the US on many issues mainly to

1506

01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:06,740

negotiate staying or withdrawing

1507

01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:09,660

militarily from Iraq what are your

1508

01:10:06,740 --> 01:10:12,060

reflections on this issue you're

1509

01:10:09,660 --> 01:10:13,920

absolutely right I am NOT going I am not

1510

01:10:12,060 --> 01:10:15,960

qualified to address that issue I

1511

01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:17,010

probably am not qualified to address

1512

01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:19,260

several issues that I've already

1513

01:10:17,010 --> 01:10:22,320

addressed but I'm going to take a pass

1514

01:10:19,260 --> 01:10:24,240

on that I was afraid of that but many of

1515

01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:29,550

my associates were begging me to ask you

1516

01:10:24,240 --> 01:10:32,220

that question which isn't I think if

1517

01:10:29,550 --> 01:10:34,710

you're talking about I think they'll be

1518

01:10:32,220 --> 01:10:37,110

I think that there's a possibility that

1519

01:10:34,710 --> 01:10:39,210

US troops will be withdrawn before the

1520

01:10:37,110 --> 01:10:42,780

election out of Afghanistan I haven't

1521

01:10:39,210 --> 01:10:47,039

given any I really haven't focused on

1522

01:10:42,780 --> 01:10:49,199

or read anything on the possibility of

1523

01:10:47,039 --> 01:10:51,809

US troops being pulled out of Iraq I

1524

01:10:49,199 --> 01:10:55,020

tend to believe not I think Afghanistan

1525

01:10:51,809 --> 01:10:56,429

certainly is is is it's a much clearer

1526

01:10:55,020 --> 01:10:57,900

possibility you know much more

1527

01:10:56,429 --> 01:11:02,250

definitive possibility if I could use

1528

01:10:57,900 --> 01:11:03,840

those two words together we have several

1529

01:11:02,250 --> 01:11:07,559

questions coming up of course the closer

1530

01:11:03,840 --> 01:11:10,050

we get to the end more in my experience

1531

01:11:07,559 --> 01:11:12,840

will get but Mara Richard of the United

1532

01:11:10,050 --> 01:11:15,179

States is asking you there is quite a

1533

01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:16,739

bit of discussion about Trump recusing

1534

01:11:15,179 --> 01:11:18,570

have a peaceful transition of power if I

1535

01:11:16,739 --> 01:11:25,309

winced what do we need to do and sure we

1536

01:11:18,570 --> 01:11:27,809

aren't faced with this scenario I look

1537

01:11:25,309 --> 01:11:32,670

yes it's a question that comes up

1538

01:11:27,809 --> 01:11:35,520

I think his language if he loses in the

1539

01:11:32,670 --> 01:11:37,320

you know in the days right after will be

1540

01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:39,179

tough and could very he could very well

1541

01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:42,750

raise this but I would like to believe

1542

01:11:39,179 --> 01:11:45,929

and I do believe that most of the

1543

01:11:42,750 --> 01:11:46,619

Republican Party will not let that

1544

01:11:45,929 --> 01:11:49,949

happen

1545

01:11:46,619 --> 01:11:51,869

even those Republicans who today and the

1546

01:11:49,949 --> 01:11:53,820

party today is Trump's party it's not

1547

01:11:51,869 --> 01:11:56,369

the Republican Party even those

1548

01:11:53,820 --> 01:12:00,000

Republicans today should he or when he

1549

01:11:56,369 --> 01:12:03,690

loses you will see most of them run away

1550

01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:06,599

from him so quickly that they will try

1551

01:12:03,690 --> 01:12:09,059

to let or try to push everybody to

1552

01:12:06,599 --> 01:12:10,829

forget how much they have supported and

1553

01:12:09,059 --> 01:12:11,639

endorsed and allowed him to do what he's

1554

01:12:10,829 --> 01:12:18,719

doing now

1555

01:12:11,639 --> 01:12:23,340

so I do not believe that that will be a

1556

01:12:18,719 --> 01:12:25,650

very very serious issue post-election no

1557

01:12:23,340 --> 01:12:27,300

matter what he says 24 48 or 72 hours

1558

01:12:25,650 --> 01:12:32,130

after I think the Republican Party the

1559

01:12:27,300 --> 01:12:33,179

Republican Party establishment will will

1560

01:12:32,130 --> 01:12:35,309

not let that happen

1561

01:12:33,179 --> 01:12:36,989

I would like to think that maybe I'm a

1562

01:12:35,309 --> 01:12:38,789

dreamer but I would I would certainly

1563

01:12:36,989 --> 01:12:44,039

hope that that's you know that that's

1564

01:12:38,789 --> 01:12:48,300

the case one second I think that Trump

1565

01:12:44,039 --> 01:12:51,210

himself will do everything to throw cold

1566

01:12:48,300 --> 01:12:53,519

water on that and to D legitimize a

1567

01:12:51,210 --> 01:12:56,580

Biden a Biden victory I have little

1568

01:12:53,519 --> 01:13:00,480

doubt about it but I don't think that

1569

01:12:56,580 --> 01:13:03,090

that that will become a widely held view

1570

01:13:00,480 --> 01:13:05,670

by the Republican political

1571

01:13:03,090 --> 01:13:08,850

establishment it could very well be a

1572

01:13:05,670 --> 01:13:13,680

widely held view by Trump's hardcore

1573

01:13:08,850 --> 01:13:15,750

supporters but I don't think that that

1574

01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:17,640

it would would happen look look just

1575

01:13:15,750 --> 01:13:19,500

what's been going on in the last week

1576

01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:24,770

here in the United States did you ever

1577

01:13:19,500 --> 01:13:27,600

think that a former Secretary of Defense

1578

01:13:24,770 --> 01:13:31,830

several former chairman of the Joint

1579

01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:34,020

Chiefs the current Secretary of Defense

1580

01:13:31,830 --> 01:13:36,630

belatedly but nevertheless would

1581

01:13:34,020 --> 01:13:38,850

publicly say what they're saying about

1582

01:13:36,630 --> 01:13:42,110

how Trump is you know as a threat to the

1583

01:13:38,850 --> 01:13:45,360

Constitution of the United States

1584

01:13:42,110 --> 01:13:47,160

someone that shrimp picked himself three

1585

01:13:45,360 --> 01:13:50,760

years ago to be his Secretary of Defense

1586

01:13:47,160 --> 01:13:53,550

who he said was such a great general so

1587

01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:57,420

I think that and that's only in the

1588

01:13:53,550 --> 01:14:01,890

Pentagon so I don't believe that there

1589

01:13:57,420 --> 01:14:05,220

could be a serious political disruption

1590

01:14:01,890 --> 01:14:07,380

in the event of a Biden victory so we

1591

01:14:05,220 --> 01:14:09,240

have another question from Hussein my

1592

01:14:07,380 --> 01:14:12,810

life from Iran and he'll be followed by

1593

01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:14,550

a question from Morocco and mr. Malik

1594

01:14:12,810 --> 01:14:16,110

says if I might ask another question

1595

01:14:14,550 --> 01:14:18,450

Iran according to president Trump

1596

01:14:16,110 --> 01:14:19,890

working closely with Democrats against

1597

01:14:18,450 --> 01:14:22,500

him do you think there will be a chance

1598

01:14:19,890 --> 01:14:28,890

for Iran and Trump to come to any terms

1599

01:14:22,500 --> 01:14:31,110

before the election I frankly don't

1600

01:14:28,890 --> 01:14:41,840

believe that that's possible with Trump

1601

01:14:31,110 --> 01:14:47,430

and I think because of current US policy

1602

01:14:41,840 --> 01:14:49,980

versus with Iran where both Pompeo is a

1603

01:14:47,430 --> 01:14:54,180

very very important player in that and

1604

01:14:49,980 --> 01:14:57,510

his views on Iran are very very tough I

1605

01:14:54,180 --> 01:14:59,550

do not believe that there will be any

1606

01:14:57,510 --> 01:15:01,980

sort of rapprochement other than a

1607

01:14:59,550 --> 01:15:04,530

lowering of tension between the United

1608

01:15:01,980 --> 01:15:07,490

States and Iran before the election or

1609

01:15:04,530 --> 01:15:10,229

by Trump frankly no I don't believe that

1610

01:15:07,490 --> 01:15:14,550

and I think

1611

01:15:10,229 --> 01:15:16,409

let's leave it at that i from an

1612

01:15:14,550 --> 01:15:20,249

American it's astonishing how many

1613

01:15:16,409 --> 01:15:23,519

people abroad how much people have

1614

01:15:20,249 --> 01:15:25,289

brought have the details of what's going

1615

01:15:23,519 --> 01:15:27,809

on the United States today here's some

1616

01:15:25,289 --> 01:15:31,739

say me Mohammed Asia Dean the office of

1617

01:15:27,809 --> 01:15:34,679

international law in Morocco and he says

1618

01:15:31,739 --> 01:15:36,630

the general attorney in Minnesota

1619

01:15:34,679 --> 01:15:38,519

declared yesterday that the charge was

1620

01:15:36,630 --> 01:15:40,920

upgraded to second-degree murder and

1621

01:15:38,519 --> 01:15:45,150

that the other three policemen were

1622

01:15:40,920 --> 01:15:46,650

charged and death of George Floyd is it

1623

01:15:45,150 --> 01:15:49,440

a turning point for democracy and human

1624

01:15:46,650 --> 01:15:51,719

rights in the United States what will be

1625

01:15:49,440 --> 01:15:55,110

the impact of this new evolution on the

1626

01:15:51,719 --> 01:15:56,489

US policy in the in the middle I think

1627

01:15:55,110 --> 01:15:58,800

I've messed this up what will the impact

1628

01:15:56,489 --> 01:16:03,420

of this new evolution on the US policy

1629

01:15:58,800 --> 01:16:06,360

in the Middle East region be look I

1630

01:16:03,420 --> 01:16:08,550

think something very transformative is

1631

01:16:06,360 --> 01:16:10,320

currently happening but I've also said

1632

01:16:08,550 --> 01:16:14,099

that in the past on several occasions so

1633

01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:16,979

I want to be careful but I think the one

1634

01:16:14,099 --> 01:16:19,739

new thing now in the protests that I see

1635

01:16:16,979 --> 01:16:26,099

and that we're all seeing and witnessing

1636

01:16:19,739 --> 01:16:29,190

is the protests are not solely within

1637

01:16:26,099 --> 01:16:35,940

the African American community that have

1638

01:16:29,190 --> 01:16:38,010

been the recipients of police murder for

1639

01:16:35,940 --> 01:16:40,590

many many years in very very different

1640

01:16:38,010 --> 01:16:44,010

states throughout the United States you

1641

01:16:40,590 --> 01:16:47,699

see in the streets peacefully you see in

1642

01:16:44,010 --> 01:16:51,659

the streets a very very diverse

1643

01:16:47,699 --> 01:16:54,119

community of white black brown even

1644

01:16:51,659 --> 01:16:55,979

Asian who are in the streets and I think

1645

01:16:54,119 --> 01:16:58,860

that's the positive the one positive

1646

01:16:55,979 --> 01:17:01,170

that one could point to in being

1647

01:16:58,860 --> 01:17:04,289

somewhat more optimistic about where

1648

01:17:01,170 --> 01:17:06,570

this is going as far as the development

1649

01:17:04,289 --> 01:17:08,159

here in the United States in its

1650

01:17:06,570 --> 01:17:11,880

relationship to its own communities

1651

01:17:08,159 --> 01:17:15,749

inside the United States but I am

1652

01:17:11,880 --> 01:17:17,099

hesitant to make a bold statement that

1653

01:17:15,749 --> 01:17:19,979

other things are going to be different

1654

01:17:17,099 --> 01:17:22,650

the u.s. is changing we have to wait and

1655

01:17:19,979 --> 01:17:24,060

see and see how you know whether this

1656

01:17:22,650 --> 01:17:26,670

could be sustained I think

1657

01:17:24,060 --> 01:17:31,100

happened what is happening right now is

1658

01:17:26,670 --> 01:17:34,140

something that gives me a very

1659

01:17:31,100 --> 01:17:36,450

significant degree of optimism on on

1660

01:17:34,140 --> 01:17:38,220

what's happening here in the United

1661

01:17:36,450 --> 01:17:39,930

States for the better and I think it

1662

01:17:38,220 --> 01:17:42,300

cuts across all different communities

1663

01:17:39,930 --> 01:17:44,520

people who support Trump people who

1664

01:17:42,300 --> 01:17:48,630

don't support Trump people who are

1665

01:17:44,520 --> 01:17:51,030

Republicans Democrats socialists are

1666

01:17:48,630 --> 01:17:57,800

charged conservatives the degree of

1667

01:17:51,030 --> 01:18:01,980

discussed at the reprehensible murder of

1668

01:17:57,800 --> 01:18:04,500

George Floyd in in in Minneapolis week

1669

01:18:01,980 --> 01:18:07,770

and a half ago he cuts across all

1670

01:18:04,500 --> 01:18:11,520

segments of the community and I think

1671

01:18:07,770 --> 01:18:15,090

that Trump is taking a very big risk in

1672

01:18:11,520 --> 01:18:17,160

thinking that he could have ninety

1673

01:18:15,090 --> 01:18:19,350

percent of America forget what happened

1674

01:18:17,160 --> 01:18:22,680

and focus on law noda

1675

01:18:19,350 --> 01:18:25,200

and picking up upside down I might add a

1676

01:18:22,680 --> 01:18:30,210

Bible in having a photo-op in front of a

1677

01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:32,100

church ah Laurie Halse burg wants to

1678

01:18:30,210 --> 01:18:34,620

know do you see any Republican leaders

1679

01:18:32,100 --> 01:18:37,740

pulling away from Trump which would pull

1680

01:18:34,620 --> 01:18:42,720

predilection away from Trump as she puts

1681

01:18:37,740 --> 01:18:46,370

it well there's been not yet while there

1682

01:18:42,720 --> 01:18:48,840

have been statements by various senators

1683

01:18:46,370 --> 01:18:53,250

expressing disgust and even some

1684

01:18:48,840 --> 01:18:55,320

criticism veiled criticism of Trump

1685

01:18:53,250 --> 01:18:57,470

pushing back peaceful protesters on

1686

01:18:55,320 --> 01:19:02,070

Monday you notice that he could walk

1687

01:18:57,470 --> 01:19:04,560

quote peacefully to a church I still

1688

01:19:02,070 --> 01:19:07,470

don't see the Republican establishment

1689

01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:10,290

at this time moving away from him I

1690

01:19:07,470 --> 01:19:12,810

think it's going to take a bit more time

1691

01:19:10,290 --> 01:19:19,670

if if indeed that happens so I would not

1692

01:19:12,810 --> 01:19:22,380

I would not build Biden's campaign on a

1693

01:19:19,670 --> 01:19:25,340

campaign that focuses on trying to bring

1694

01:19:22,380 --> 01:19:30,090

some of the Republican establishment

1695

01:19:25,340 --> 01:19:30,810

people away from Trump I don't think

1696

01:19:30,090 --> 01:19:33,030

we're there yet

1697

01:19:30,810 --> 01:19:37,470

but it's going to be actions that shrimp

1698

01:19:33,030 --> 01:19:39,540

cakes on his tweets or whatever that

1699

01:19:37,470 --> 01:19:41,970

will dictate whether more Republican

1700

01:19:39,540 --> 01:19:44,490

political leaders will begin to feel

1701

01:19:41,970 --> 01:19:45,270

uncomfortable publicly and begin moving

1702

01:19:44,490 --> 01:19:47,010

away from him

1703

01:19:45,270 --> 01:19:50,310

it's not anything that will be done on

1704

01:19:47,010 --> 01:19:52,250

the Democratic side it's outrageous

1705

01:19:50,310 --> 01:19:55,230

things that Trump may do in the future

1706

01:19:52,250 --> 01:19:57,120

that may push them away from Trump but

1707

01:19:55,230 --> 01:20:00,260

not necessarily towards Biden that I

1708

01:19:57,120 --> 01:20:03,330

don't think is going to happen I have an

1709

01:20:00,260 --> 01:20:05,850

intriguing question that has been heard

1710

01:20:03,330 --> 01:20:08,700

other places from Eric's al-kahf again

1711

01:20:05,850 --> 01:20:13,200

is Michelle Obama possible VP candidate

1712

01:20:08,700 --> 01:20:16,290

no okay so let me just ask the last

1713

01:20:13,200 --> 01:20:18,540

question here and that is a second as I

1714

01:20:16,290 --> 01:20:22,260

said no right away I also want you to

1715

01:20:18,540 --> 01:20:24,270

say I also just to put everything on the

1716

01:20:22,260 --> 01:20:24,750

table and to demonstrate that I'm an

1717

01:20:24,270 --> 01:20:31,760

honest guy

1718

01:20:24,750 --> 01:20:34,200

I also responded in on November 7th 2016

1719

01:20:31,760 --> 01:20:39,900

there's not a chance

1720

01:20:34,200 --> 01:20:42,390

that Trump could get elected all right

1721

01:20:39,900 --> 01:20:45,270

no the last question is as we've had

1722

01:20:42,390 --> 01:20:48,420

this discussion on so many issues and so

1723

01:20:45,270 --> 01:20:51,210

many questions dealing with this problem

1724

01:20:48,420 --> 01:20:52,620

or that problem there's a really there's

1725

01:20:51,210 --> 01:20:55,110

all of this really change the United

1726

01:20:52,620 --> 01:20:57,150

States if you're a foreign country at

1727

01:20:55,110 --> 01:20:58,410

many foreign countries represented if

1728

01:20:57,150 --> 01:21:01,220

you look at the Middle East if you're

1729

01:20:58,410 --> 01:21:05,510

from the Middle East or from Europe

1730

01:21:01,220 --> 01:21:10,590

after the election and whoever wins

1731

01:21:05,510 --> 01:21:13,650

moves in his direction is it going to

1732

01:21:10,590 --> 01:21:16,080

make any difference in the next four

1733

01:21:13,650 --> 01:21:17,730

years and is the United States gonna be

1734

01:21:16,080 --> 01:21:20,400

a different country at all as many

1735

01:21:17,730 --> 01:21:22,710

people seem to think weaker stronger

1736

01:21:20,400 --> 01:21:25,650

most people say weaker what's happening

1737

01:21:22,710 --> 01:21:27,500

mm-hmm look I think the starkest there

1738

01:21:25,650 --> 01:21:30,470

are a lot of differences between between

1739

01:21:27,500 --> 01:21:34,470

continued presidency of Trump versus a

1740

01:21:30,470 --> 01:21:37,170

President Biden but I think from a

1741

01:21:34,470 --> 01:21:39,120

foreign policy perspective of course

1742

01:21:37,170 --> 01:21:41,880

there that that is one area that there

1743

01:21:39,120 --> 01:21:44,490

will be a profound change from a

1744

01:21:41,880 --> 01:21:47,640

internal nationalistic view to a

1745

01:21:44,490 --> 01:21:50,910

globalist view the traditional Democrat

1746

01:21:47,640 --> 01:21:51,380

view of globalism is very much alive and

1747

01:21:50,910 --> 01:21:54,620

well

1748

01:21:51,380 --> 01:21:56,520

amongst both progressives as well as

1749

01:21:54,620 --> 01:21:58,380

traditionalists and moderates in the

1750

01:21:56,520 --> 01:22:02,970

Democratic Party and if there's one

1751

01:21:58,380 --> 01:22:05,580

issue in addition to empathy but if

1752

01:22:02,970 --> 01:22:09,300

there's one issue that will be starkly

1753

01:22:05,580 --> 01:22:11,010

different on a January 20th 2021 if

1754

01:22:09,300 --> 01:22:13,140

Biden is president it's the whole

1755

01:22:11,010 --> 01:22:16,230

globalist view I mean he's going to

1756

01:22:13,140 --> 01:22:19,350

return to he's going to try to return to

1757

01:22:16,230 --> 01:22:21,690

America's traditional role as leader of

1758

01:22:19,350 --> 01:22:24,120

the as leader of the free world whether

1759

01:22:21,690 --> 01:22:26,550

there is permanent damage to that goal

1760

01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:28,470

is something that should be asked not

1761

01:22:26,550 --> 01:22:32,580

whether it's going to yet he will try to

1762

01:22:28,470 --> 01:22:35,190

do it because he will try to do that so

1763

01:22:32,580 --> 01:22:37,770

as I said before I'm afraid this is our

1764

01:22:35,190 --> 01:22:40,860

last this was our last question on

1765

01:22:37,770 --> 01:22:42,060

behalf of us all one of the things

1766

01:22:40,860 --> 01:22:44,400

they're first for that marvelous

1767

01:22:42,060 --> 01:22:47,340

presentation and will we use to answer

1768

01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:50,910

so many questions on so many topics seem

1769

01:22:47,340 --> 01:22:53,160

it has more programs in the planning

1770

01:22:50,910 --> 01:22:55,140

stage for our upcoming summer our office

1771

01:22:53,160 --> 01:22:57,510

will be in touch with you as they emerge

1772

01:22:55,140 --> 01:23:00,270

until then thank you thank you thank you

1773

01:22:57,510 --> 01:23:03,270

again there first and our very best and

1774

01:23:00,270 --> 01:23:07,020

hope everyone takes care so that they

1775

01:23:03,270 --> 01:23:07,770

are not harmed by the coronavirus bye

1776

01:23:07,020 --> 01:23:12,440

for now

1777

01:23:07,770 --> 01:23:12,440

thank you very much take care thank you


Duration: 01:23:13

CMED_talk-qh-31g.mp3

Sponsor(s): Center for Middle East Development, Burkle Center for International Relations, Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, Department of Public Policy